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What could Braun bring from anyone? (2017 version)

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Online  Re: What could Braun bring from anyone? (2017 version)
Posted: May 28, 2017, 11:46 AM Post
Posts: 10111
MrTPlush said:
I hope you guys run your personal finances a little better than you would run the Brewers. 20% of you payroll/income isn't a big deal if wasted...you can do the same things you would normally do anyway? I just can't get on board with this logic. $20mil is bad if Braun isn't going to produce at a high rate. Assuming the Brewers wouldn't put it to better use seems like a way to rationalize Braun not being a big deal if he isn't as good as he was before.


So it's still a waste for me to throw away $800 a month of my $4,000/month salary at the strip club if I can still pay my bills?

Well shoot .


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Offline  Re: What could Braun bring from anyone? (2017 version)
Posted: May 28, 2017, 11:50 AM Post
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It's more than likely that it just becomes $20m more spent than it ever does $20m we can't spend. It's Marks money. He knew the risk before ever signing Braun. I'm sure he has seen his return.

“There's a fine line between being confident and cocky, or overconfident. This is an extremely humbling game. But if you don't believe in yourself, no one else is going to believe in you.”


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Offline  Re: What could Braun bring from anyone? (2017 version)
Posted: May 28, 2017, 12:56 PM Post
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Location: Baltimore, MD
I think the difference in opinions stem from when people think the Brewers will even be in a position to want to fill their budget on a contending team. We know their willing to spend $100m+ when the timing is right. If you think this offseason is when they're ready to make that kind of commitment and you think it'll take $70m in FAs and trade acqusiitions instead of $50m to get where they want, then yes, Braun's contract is potentially hindering things.

If you think they'll take a couple more years nurturing the farm system and seeing how players develop once they reach the major league level before deciding they're ready to max out on their payroll, you're probably not as worried about Braun's contract hanging around for 3 more seasons. And at that point if the Brewers are looking to sign someone to a $200m contract, I'm not so sure, even if Braun has a year left on his contract, that they'll let that get in the way of making a move they think will improve the club.


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Online  Re: What could Braun bring from anyone? (2017 version)
Posted: May 28, 2017, 1:28 PM Post
Posts: 6353
Location: Kenosha, WI
adambr2 said:
MrTPlush said:
I hope you guys run your personal finances a little better than you would run the Brewers. 20% of you payroll/income isn't a big deal if wasted...you can do the same things you would normally do anyway? I just can't get on board with this logic. $20mil is bad if Braun isn't going to produce at a high rate. Assuming the Brewers wouldn't put it to better use seems like a way to rationalize Braun not being a big deal if he isn't as good as he was before.


So it's still a waste for me to throw away $800 a month of my $4,000/month salary at the strip club if I can still pay my bills?

Well shoot .


Well to be fair there could be some value for you. Maybe 2-3 WAR depending on how nice your wife is.


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Offline  Re: What could Braun bring from anyone? (2017 version)
Posted: May 29, 2017, 11:15 AM Post
Posts: 492
Don't know if many people here are regular listeners to the Baseball Tonight podcast but I listen as I have a lot of car/ windshield time each day.
Over the past week Buster Olney on a couple occasions noted:
1) that Braun only wants to play in LA if moved from Milwaukee
2) other GMs around the leauge see a few huge issues with Braun - inability to remain healthy, the size of his deal (for a player not remaining on the field) & the PED history
3) he does not see Braun getting moved at all


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Online    Re: What could Braun bring from anyone? (2017 version)
Posted: May 29, 2017, 11:24 AM Post
Posts: 10111
MadThinker88 said:
Don't know if many people here are regular listeners to the Baseball Tonight podcast but I listen as I have a lot of car/ windshield time each day.
Over the past week Buster Olney on a couple occasions noted:
1) that Braun only wants to play in LA if moved from Milwaukee
2) other GMs around the leauge see a few huge issues with Braun - inability to remain healthy, the size of his deal (for a player not remaining on the field) & the PED history
3) he does not see Braun getting moved at all


Pretty much can't disagree with any of that.


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Offline  Re: What could Braun bring from anyone? (2017 version)
Posted: May 29, 2017, 11:27 AM Post
Posts: 438
adambr2 said:
MadThinker88 said:
Don't know if many people here are regular listeners to the Baseball Tonight podcast but I listen as I have a lot of car/ windshield time each day.
Over the past week Buster Olney on a couple occasions noted:
1) that Braun only wants to play in LA if moved from Milwaukee
2) other GMs around the leauge see a few huge issues with Braun - inability to remain healthy, the size of his deal (for a player not remaining on the field) & the PED history
3) he does not see Braun getting moved at all


Pretty much can't disagree with any of that.


Yep. The Brewers have no leverage with the Dodgers if that is the case. No reason to just give him away either.


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Offline  Re: What could Braun bring from anyone? (2017 version)
Posted: May 29, 2017, 2:05 PM Post
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MadThinker88 said:
1) that Braun only wants to play in LA if moved from Milwaukee


Exactly why I wanted him moved this winter. At least we had a little leverage with a couple other teams that he could possibly be dealt to. Now we're stuck with him.

Cards' fans wear jorts.


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Online  Re: What could Braun bring from anyone? (2017 version)
Posted: May 29, 2017, 2:28 PM Post
Posts: 10111
wildcat2237 said:
adambr2 said:
MadThinker88 said:
Don't know if many people here are regular listeners to the Baseball Tonight podcast but I listen as I have a lot of car/ windshield time each day.
Over the past week Buster Olney on a couple occasions noted:
1) that Braun only wants to play in LA if moved from Milwaukee
2) other GMs around the leauge see a few huge issues with Braun - inability to remain healthy, the size of his deal (for a player not remaining on the field) & the PED history
3) he does not see Braun getting moved at all


Pretty much can't disagree with any of that.


Yep. The Brewers have no leverage with the Dodgers if that is the case. No reason to just give him away either.


The fact that he cleared waivers last August is a good indication that we couldn't give him away anyway even if we wanted to.


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Offline  Re: What could Braun bring from anyone? (2017 version)
Posted: May 30, 2017, 12:01 PM Post
Posts: 1740
If other execs thought he was a 4 WAR player he wouldn't have cleared waivers.

Since his only market is the Dodgers, it's unlikely we can move him unless we take back some seriously bad contracts.


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Offline  Re: What could Braun bring from anyone? (2017 version)
Posted: May 30, 2017, 1:02 PM Post
Posts: 652
He can't stay off the DL. Nobody would want him unless the Brewers take on some of that contract. Big market, big payroll teams do it but does it make sense for a small market team.


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Offline  Re: What could Braun bring from anyone? (2017 version)
Posted: May 30, 2017, 9:47 PM Post
Posts: 3550
Lets be crazy upset about an AS bat whos making 76mil for 4years(14 thats deferred) causing us to not be able to spend 50+ mil for a teenager who may never take the ML field. And who if does make the ML team will be paid 6/7years during the team control. So if hes a stud theres say another 45mil making this teenager a 100mil investment for 6/7 seasons.

Makes sense to be upset with Brauns contract and plead for something far more insane in idea.

Love how after 135/120/135 this start to 2017 means Braun is a 90game player moving forward. Look up and down every ML team and contracts they put up with the last 3 years. Tell me which team had 0bad contracts? LA had near 100mil I believe last season in salary paid for players who never played for them.
Who here is a Billionaire based on their crystal ball perfection of betting with knowledge of the future? Last Year Brauns was near a 4WAR player. He started off on that track, has his injuries and now forget it he's not going to be a 1WAR player the rest of his contract?

Im doing it again, putting too much time and stress on the subject of Braun.
I do believe he wont be traded now, at least through 2018.


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Online  Re: What could Braun bring from anyone? (2017 version)
Posted: May 30, 2017, 10:07 PM Post
Posts: 6353
Location: Kenosha, WI
brewcrewdue80 said:
Lets be crazy upset about an AS bat


He isn't an AS bat anymore. Those days are gone it seems. You are right about him not going to be traded though.


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Offline  Re: What could Braun bring from anyone? (2017 version)
Posted: May 30, 2017, 11:06 PM Post
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MrTPlush said:
brewcrewdue80 said:
Lets be crazy upset about an AS bat


He isn't an AS bat anymore. Those days are gone it seems. You are right about him not going to be traded though.



A-wha? I read somewhere on these boards that some respected webbers (Fancharts? BP? BA? (couldn't have been BA. He's an over-rated announcer)) had Braun as the #1 left fielder in baseball coming into this year. I would not disagree with that assessment. Last year he slashed .305/.368/.538. That's incredibly good. He was doing just as well this year before nagging injuries came up. When he comes back, he will hit, just like he always has.

The guy is no hero, but he can hit. He isn't overpaid right now, and we have lots of cash to spend. He MIGHT be overpaid in a couple of years.


Last edited by Oxy on May 30, 2017, 11:09 PM, edited 1 time in total.

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Online  Re: What could Braun bring from anyone? (2017 version)
Posted: May 30, 2017, 11:08 PM Post
Posts: 10111
Well he is currently a 0 WAR player this year despite being 'right on track.' So yeah, I'd say 1 WAR this year is highly plausible.


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Offline  Re: What could Braun bring from anyone? (2017 version)
Posted: May 31, 2017, 2:54 AM Post
Posts: 1740
Oxy said:
MrTPlush said:
brewcrewdue80 said:
Lets be crazy upset about an AS bat


He isn't an AS bat anymore. Those days are gone it seems. You are right about him not going to be traded though.



A-wha? I read somewhere on these boards that some respected webbers (Fancharts? BP? BA? (couldn't have been BA. He's an over-rated announcer)) had Braun as the #1 left fielder in baseball coming into this year. I would not disagree with that assessment. Last year he slashed .305/.368/.538. That's incredibly good. He was doing just as well this year before nagging injuries came up. When he comes back, he will hit, just like he always has.

The guy is no hero, but he can hit. He isn't overpaid right now, and we have lots of cash to spend. He MIGHT be overpaid in a couple of years.


If he was the player you suggest he wouldn't have cleared waivers.

He is 33 and despite being gingerly used and given frequent days off, he goes from one nagging injury to another. Those are significant red flags.

If the NL gets the DH, he becomes a lot more valuable. As a LF, he is done being a 4 WAR player most likely.


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Offline  Re: What could Braun bring from anyone? (2017 version)
Posted: May 31, 2017, 6:06 AM Post
Posts: 444
Location: Madison, WI
Not only the injuries but the huge defensive drop-off that people have feared may have arrived. Braun posted a pretty good +6 DRS in 2016, but in 2017 he is at -7 which is a shockingly bad number for only having played 222 innings. His UZR/150 in 2016 was a respectable -3.3, but had dropped to -22.8 so far in 2017. J.D. Martinez had similar defensive numbers last year, and it limited him to being a 1.8 WAR player despite a huge offensive season in which he slashed .307/.373/.535/.908 (120 games played).


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Online  Re: What could Braun bring from anyone? (2017 version)
Posted: May 31, 2017, 7:07 AM Post
Posts: 10111
brewcrewdue80 said:
Lets be crazy upset about an AS bat whos making 76mil for 4years(14 thats deferred) causing us to not be able to spend 50+ mil for a teenager who may never take the ML field. And who if does make the ML team will be paid 6/7years during the team control. So if hes a stud theres say another 45mil making this teenager a 100mil investment for 6/7 seasons.

Makes sense to be upset with Brauns contract and plead for something far more insane in idea.

Love how after 135/120/135 this start to 2017 means Braun is a 90game player moving forward. Look up and down every ML team and contracts they put up with the last 3 years. Tell me which team had 0bad contracts? LA had near 100mil I believe last season in salary paid for players who never played for them.
Who here is a Billionaire based on their crystal ball perfection of betting with knowledge of the future? Last Year Brauns was near a 4WAR player. He started off on that track, has his injuries and now forget it he's not going to be a 1WAR player the rest of his contract?

Im doing it again, putting too much time and stress on the subject of Braun.
I do believe he wont be traded now, at least through 2018.


First and second paragraph you claim Braun doesn't have a bad contract. Then you go on to say, 'Well, every team has bad contracts, right?'

And if the 50M teenager is a stud, who ends up costing 100M for 6-7 years, that will obviously have been well worth it.

If you're asking right now would I rather have Ryan Braun for 80M or a top 30 prospect for 50M given a choice between one or the other, I'd much, much rather have the prospect.

You're right, he won't be traded, because there are no trade partners for him.

People seem to wistfully remember Braun for what he was and not really for what he is now. Braun can probably still give a good .850 OPS or so but when there's no DH spot for you and you have a highly negative defensive value, there's not much value to that 850 OPS.


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Online  Re: What could Braun bring from anyone? (2017 version)
Posted: May 31, 2017, 9:11 AM Post
Posts: 6353
Location: Kenosha, WI
Oxy said:
MrTPlush said:
brewcrewdue80 said:
Lets be crazy upset about an AS bat


He isn't an AS bat anymore. Those days are gone it seems. You are right about him not going to be traded though.



A-wha? I read somewhere on these boards that some respected webbers (Fancharts? BP? BA? (couldn't have been BA. He's an over-rated announcer)) had Braun as the #1 left fielder in baseball coming into this year. I would not disagree with that assessment. Last year he slashed .305/.368/.538. That's incredibly good. He was doing just as well this year before nagging injuries came up. When he comes back, he will hit, just like he always has.

The guy is no hero, but he can hit. He isn't overpaid right now, and we have lots of cash to spend. He MIGHT be overpaid in a couple of years.


He already looks like he MIGHT be overpaid. Even by the, in my opinion, terrible $8mil per 1 WAR valuation he is overpaid. We have an OFer who is constantly injured with a lot of those problems stemming from his legs...that's not good long term. On top of that his defense is declining which is going to sap a lot of the value he provides offensively. Lastly the guy missing and is going to miss a ton of time in the future. He may have a 4 WAR player stat line, but when he plays 100-120 games he won't actually put up 4 WAR in a year.

Braun supporters can keep beating the .850 OPS drum, but after missed time and poor defense it is more like a .700 OPS drum.

I just hope he can at least be a 2 WAR player the next 4 years. At least provide something notable. If not it is a terrible contract and a terrible move not trading him. I really hope that isn't the case, but year #1 is already well behind pace. If he can't do it this year I don't have much hope for the next 3 years.


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Offline  Re: What could Braun bring from anyone? (2017 version)
Posted: May 31, 2017, 10:21 AM Post
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The argument of "every team has bad contracts" is absolutely valid. There have been minimal opportunities to trade him since the PED fiasco and prior to that it seemed like one of the best contracts in the history of baseball.

The Brewers have an excellent cap situation right now. They took a risk by not trading Lucroy for a while, not trading Gomez for a while, etc. and they won on all of those risks. I'm not even sure if they "took a risk" by not trading Braun because for all we know the Dodgers are the only team to ever offer and the Dodgers are the ones that pulled back. All of that said, they've been doing an excellent job managing the rebuild by judging when to trade guys. They're hitting at a high clip.

Sometimes players are overpaid or you pay the piper for taking a risk on a player when you're in a contending window. We're paying for it, but every team that has ever rebuild does. The Astros sat on Carlos Lee and Brett Myers. The Dodgers are a big market team and they're sitting on horrible contracts. The Cubs sat out the majority of Soriano's and Edwin Jackson's deals among several others.

My best guess is that we got really lowball offers for Braun in the 2014 era and then the one that the Dodgers backed out on in 2016. The 2014 one, though many want to think it was easy, would have probably been a spectacular risk since Braun looked like he was still pretty good and the offers were probably just salary relief.

Point is: the money will barely affect the year-to-year payroll at any point. We can still spend if we want to.

Those saying they knew Braun's deal would be an albatross: congratulations. I'm going to predict that the last 2-3 years of Bryce Harper, Cole Hamels, and Manny Machado's upcoming contracts will be terrible. About 80% baseball contracts lasting over 2 or 3 years are going to be bad in their final few years. It's almost a guarantee. The only unique thing about Braun is that we thought he was giving us such an amazing deal for a long period of time and then he got caught with PEDs, so his deal may be bad for 3 or 4 years, depending on how you want to spin it...but it's not even that bad.


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