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What could Braun bring from anyone? (2017 version)

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Offline  Re: What could Braun bring from anyone? (2017 version)
Posted: May 12, 2017, 4:43 AM Post
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Did the Brewers not get Luis Ortiz, a first rounder, who is already at AA and doing quite well?


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Offline  Re: What could Braun bring from anyone? (2017 version)
Posted: May 12, 2017, 8:14 AM Post
Posts: 3374
Yes Brew4u but that was 1 pitcher and thus why I say another in the deal. BA updated their top 100 Brinson is at 20 ortiz and woodruff I think were 73/74. I don't know I just feel Brinson, like Ray will provide nice numbers, but nothing elite in any single tool. Sure both may touch .300 but .340s OB with that number. 20HRs sure. 15-20 sbs sure. Its solid but the Brewers had and have OFs who have that potential with a higher tool in some category. Id just prefer to take a stab in the dark with a pitcher over a redundant OF.

Back on Braun. Since his 1st rd draft pick. If you take the top 30 selections since, would the Brewers rank dead last in WAR from their selections vs the other MLB teams?


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Offline  Re: What could Braun bring from anyone? (2017 version)
Posted: May 12, 2017, 8:26 AM Post
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Location: Baltimore, MD
brewcrewdue80 said:
If you take the top 30 selections since, would the Brewers rank dead last in WAR from their selections vs the other MLB teams?

Not sure, but their top picks have been pretty putrid:

YEAR	PCK	PLAYER			POS	 WAR
---- --- ------ --- ---
2006 16 Jeremy Jeffress RHP 4.0
2007 7 Matt LaPorta 1B -0.9
2008 16 Brett Lawrie 3B 15.4
2009 26 Eric Arnett RHP
2010 14 Dylan Covey RHP -0.7
2011 12 Taylor Jungmann RHP 1.1
2012 27 Clint Coulter C
2014 12 Kodi Medeiros LHP
2015 15 Trent Clark OF
2016 5 Corey Ray OF


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Offline  Re: What could Braun bring from anyone? (2017 version)
Posted: May 12, 2017, 10:50 AM Post
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It certainly doesn't hurt our chances to trade Braun to the Dodgers that Andrew Toles tore his ACL and is out for the year.

If Bellinger can't keep up his torrid pace or Puig falls off a cliff, that outfield is going to need a big upgrade at the trade deadline from somewhere.

Of course Braun is going to need to come back from his current injuries healthy and productive, but injuries to the Dodgers outfield don't hurt his trade value none.


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Offline  Re: What could Braun bring from anyone? (2017 version)
Posted: May 12, 2017, 6:42 PM Post
Posts: 230
Location: Madison, WI
If I'm in a GM's chair there isn't any possible way that I could be desperate enough to want to take a risk on Braun's contract. Latest official DL move would do it for me. There are the back and thumb concerns that will likely always be a concern. Now it appears certain that he'll only log 7 at-bats over a 3+ week window with what are two of the most minor injuries there are, a mild forearm strain and a mild calf strain. So not only would I be getting a big contract player that has the chance to break down with some really debilitating injuries, but I also would be getting a player that is going to be out for a week just about every time he gets hit with a stiff breeze. No thanks.


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Offline  Re: What could Braun bring from anyone? (2017 version)
Posted: May 12, 2017, 6:50 PM Post
Posts: 7999
No , the 4 years is a real killer. I wouldn't expect it to be as difficult to deal him if his contract ran through 2018, but 2020 is tough. He's already about as durable as tissue paper at this point, hard to see it being much better in 3 years.


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Offline  Re: What could Braun bring from anyone? (2017 version)
Posted: May 12, 2017, 7:53 PM Post
Posts: 5128
Location: Kenosha, WI
^True^

^True^


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Offline  Re: What could Braun bring from anyone? (2017 version)
Posted: May 13, 2017, 7:44 AM Post
Posts: 3374
MrAllen said:
brewcrewdue80 said:
If you take the top 30 selections since, would the Brewers rank dead last in WAR from their selections vs the other MLB teams?

Not sure, but their top picks have been pretty putrid:

YEAR	PCK	PLAYER			POS	 WAR
---- --- ------ --- ---
2006 16 Jeremy Jeffress RHP 4.0
2007 7 Matt LaPorta 1B -0.9
2008 16 Brett Lawrie 3B 15.4
2009 26 Eric Arnett RHP
2010 14 Dylan Covey RHP -0.7
2011 12 Taylor Jungmann RHP 1.1
2012 27 Clint Coulter C
2014 12 Kodi Medeiros LHP
2015 15 Trent Clark OF
2016 5 Corey Ray OF


I can elaborate more in my question. Im looking for top 30 selections signed by teams. And the performance for the team who drafted the player, or if traded like Jeffress & Lawrie the WAR return the year following. You would include Roache and Bradley since they were top 30 selections. But knowing what those did It would seem to me the Brewers havent gotten more than 5WAR out of 1st round picks since Braun.if my computer worked Id be able to dig more in to this. But Im only with a phone and cant research this. Pretty much the WAR since Braun is only in the form of Marcum via Lawrie trade.

I dont even recall if Jeffress was traded?


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Offline  Re: What could Braun bring from anyone? (2017 version)
Posted: May 14, 2017, 8:58 PM Post
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I haven't read through this whole thread and won't, but what about a Braun+Hader+etc. for Julio Urias? Could we make something like that work? Braun+Thames+Hader for Urias+Bellinger+??


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Offline  Re: What could Braun bring from anyone? (2017 version)
Posted: May 16, 2017, 8:39 AM Post
Posts: 36
Oxy said:
I haven't read through this whole thread and won't, but what about a Braun+Hader+etc. for Julio Urias? Could we make something like that work? Braun+Thames+Hader for Urias+Bellinger+??


You have taken off the fair trades on video games too much. A fragile 33 year old making $20+ million, a 23 year old Lefty who may only be successful in the BP and a 30 yr old 2 month sensation from Korea for two 20 year old studs... I wish


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Offline  Re: What could Braun bring from anyone? (2017 version)
Posted: May 16, 2017, 1:25 PM Post
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I agree that Dodgers trade proposal would only make sense for teams in fantasy or video game baseball.

In real life baseball, Cody Bellinger and Julio Urias might be two of the most "untouchable" young players in the game when it comes to trades at this point.

Doubt either are going to be traded.

It is frustrating knowing that the Dodgers have all the money in the world....plus two 20 year old franchise players while the Brewers currently have none.


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Offline  Re: What could Braun bring from anyone? (2017 version)
Posted: May 16, 2017, 3:00 PM Post
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There should be nothing untouchable about Bellinger. He's a slightly better prospect than Hader. He's about to turn 22 and slashed .263/.359/.484 at AA last year as a first basemen. Big whoop.

Braun would is a borderline HOF talent with a few good years left, and Thames looks pretty good. I'll happily keep those guys if the rest of the league is that enamored with their unproven prospects.


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Offline  Re: What could Braun bring from anyone? (2017 version)
Posted: May 16, 2017, 3:12 PM Post
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If you've seen Bellinger play, it's fairly obvious that he has the talent to be one of the top 10 players in baseball.

I firmly believe that he'll be an annual future MVP candidate.


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Offline  Re: What could Braun bring from anyone? (2017 version)
Posted: May 16, 2017, 3:35 PM Post
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Oxy said:
There should be nothing untouchable about Bellinger. He's a slightly better prospect than Hader. He's about to turn 22 and slashed .263/.359/.484 at AA last year as a first basemen. Big whoop.

Braun would is a borderline HOF talent with a few good years left, and Thames looks pretty good. I'll happily keep those guys if the rest of the league is that enamored with their unproven prospects.


I'm not sure I could find anyone in baseball who would take Braun/Thames over Bellinger/Urias, but you never know I guess.


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Offline  Re: What could Braun bring from anyone? (2017 version)
Posted: May 16, 2017, 3:48 PM Post
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Even if their salaries were the same, no one in baseball would take Braun/Thames over Bellinger/Urias.

Age alone.

Braun and Thames are on the verge of exiting their prime years, while Bellinger/Urias are yet on the cusp of entering theirs.


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Offline  Re: What could Braun bring from anyone? (2017 version)
Posted: May 16, 2017, 4:08 PM Post
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Location: Madison, WI
Urias could be a top 5 pitcher and is a phenom. A basically completely untouchable on the par of people like Strasburg, Harper as they came up. Basically he would not be in any discussion that doesn't include Trout or Harper coming back to them.


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Offline  Re: What could Braun bring from anyone? (2017 version)
Posted: May 17, 2017, 12:07 AM Post
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Even if their production were the same (and I think most would concede that Bellinger will likely outproduce Braun the next 4 years), it surprises me how much people overlook the cost control element of trading proven players and prospects.

Trade value in its simplest form is nothing more than the surplus value of what a player would get as a free agent weighed against their actual contract. Its part of what has caused difficulties trading Braun -- he'd likely get 4/80 as a free agent right now, but if he exceeded it, it likely wouldn't be by much. Which is why to get anything worthwhile, we have to be willing to eat some of the contract to improve the surplus value.

That's really why guys like Bellinger for Braun were never realistic. No matter how you feel about the unproven nature of prospects, high ceiling ones with 6 years control have tremendous value. Bellinger makes essentially nothing for the rest of Braun's contract and therefore has about a $75M head start in surplus value before you even consider production and control beyond that.

I know we want to shoot for the moon on the most valuable player we've had in decades, but the reality is Braun's injuries and contract cause him to not really be all that close to the top of our roster in terms of surplus value. He's behind Thames, Broxton, Knebel, Perez, and probably numerous others in that regard. And several prospects in our system who haven't played a day in the majors. Just the way it is.


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Offline  Re: What could Braun bring from anyone? (2017 version)
Posted: May 17, 2017, 6:00 AM Post
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adambr2 said:
Even if their production were the same (and I think most would concede that Bellinger will likely outproduce Braun the next 4 years), it surprises me how much people overlook the cost control element of trading proven players and prospects.

Trade value in its simplest form is nothing more than the surplus value of what a player would get as a free agent weighed against their actual contract. Its part of what has caused difficulties trading Braun -- he'd likely get 4/80 as a free agent right now, but if he exceeded it, it likely wouldn't be by much. Which is why to get anything worthwhile, we have to be willing to eat some of the contract to improve the surplus value.

That's really why guys like Bellinger for Braun were never realistic. No matter how you feel about the unproven nature of prospects, high ceiling ones with 6 years control have tremendous value. Bellinger makes essentially nothing for the rest of Braun's contract and therefore has about a $75M head start in surplus value before you even consider production and control beyond that.

I know we want to shoot for the moon on the most valuable player we've had in decades, but the reality is Braun's injuries and contract cause him to not really be all that close to the top of our roster in terms of surplus value. He's behind Thames, Broxton, Knebel, Perez, and probably numerous others in that regard. And several prospects in our system who haven't played a day in the majors. Just the way it is.


Nice post. This sums it up perfectly. You just made the previous pages of this thread a moot point. lol

This is without even bringing up the fact of Braun's now FULL trade veto power and a near non-existent trade market.

It's simple to see why Braun is still a Brewer.

On the bright side, when healthy, Braun is still producing at a high level and earning his contract.

It's not like the Brewers are stuck with a Ryan Howard-type albatross contract/no production type situation that is impeding our rebuild.

The only thing Braun's presence is impeding may be player development at some point, but for now the Brewers are playing some nice baseball as the weather is heating up. Braun's bat remaining in the lineup also has a ripple effect on the batters hitting in the potent Brewers lineup around him, thus increasing their production and value to the organization.

Brewer fans can maybe stop focusing on what we can "get" for Braun, and perhaps discuss other potential trade chips like Jonathan Villar, Domingo Santana, Keon Broxton, Junior Guerra, and of course the great Eric Sogard!


Last edited by A Swing and A Drive on May 17, 2017, 8:56 AM, edited 1 time in total.

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Offline  Re: What could Braun bring from anyone? (2017 version)
Posted: May 17, 2017, 7:48 AM Post
Posts: 1213
Location: Madison, WI
Well said by adam and swing. I'd add to it that key part of the non-existent market for him is that his nagging injury history is basically making him an AL only option at this point. And if you go through AL contenders there just isn't any of them that need a DH. Could probably argue Bos and TX but both are paying large salaries for others. A year or two down the line maybe that will change, but as of now I don't see how an NL team can take on a 4 year commitment to him.


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Offline  Re: What could Braun bring from anyone? (2017 version)
Posted: May 17, 2017, 2:10 PM Post
Posts: 5228
And if all that is true, goes to show you win some, you lose some in the GM world. Hindsight being 20/20, Stearns should have taken whatever he could from the Dodgers. But at the time, made sense to hold out.


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