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What could Braun bring from anyone? (2017 version)

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Offline  Re: What could Braun bring from anyone? (2017 version)
Posted: May 31, 2017, 11:17 AM Post
Posts: 9986
bill hAll Star said:

Point is: the money will barely affect the year-to-year payroll at any point. We can still spend if we want to.

Those saying they knew Braun's deal would be an albatross: congratulations. I'm going to predict that the last 2-3 years of Bryce Harper, Cole Hamels, and Manny Machado's upcoming contracts will be terrible. About 80% baseball contracts lasting over 2 or 3 years are going to be bad in their final few years. It's almost a guarantee. The only unique thing about Braun is that we thought he was giving us such an amazing deal for a long period of time and then he got caught with PEDs, so his deal may be bad for 3 or 4 years, depending on how you want to spin it...but it's not even that bad.


We've already beaten to death why I think your first paragraph here is a bad way of looking at things, but I really don't understand the 2nd paragraph here. We extended Braun in 2011 because he was giving us such an amazing deal on his first contract? I'm pretty sure we weren't just looking to do Braun a solid because his 8 year contract was looking good, and if we were, that's a horrible way to conduct business especially when you're throwing around $105M. It's extremely rare to buy out someone's mid to late 30 years when at the time we already had him under control for FIVE more years. I didn't think it was worth that risk at the time and still don't. So, that's not a situation where we can just shrug and say 'Big deals are going to be horrible their last few years.' We didn't HAVE to give that big extension.

And we already know that the Dodgers' offer included McCarthy, Puig, and 2 prospects, and given Braun's contract, age and history, we already know that's not a lowball offer regardless of who the 2 prospects were.


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Offline  Re: What could Braun bring from anyone? (2017 version)
Posted: May 31, 2017, 11:27 AM Post
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adambr2 said:
bill hAll Star said:

Point is: the money will barely affect the year-to-year payroll at any point. We can still spend if we want to.

Those saying they knew Braun's deal would be an albatross: congratulations. I'm going to predict that the last 2-3 years of Bryce Harper, Cole Hamels, and Manny Machado's upcoming contracts will be terrible. About 80% baseball contracts lasting over 2 or 3 years are going to be bad in their final few years. It's almost a guarantee. The only unique thing about Braun is that we thought he was giving us such an amazing deal for a long period of time and then he got caught with PEDs, so his deal may be bad for 3 or 4 years, depending on how you want to spin it...but it's not even that bad.


We've already beaten to death why I think your first paragraph here is a bad way of looking at things, but I really don't understand the 2nd paragraph here. We extended Braun in 2011 because he was giving us such an amazing deal on his first contract? I'm pretty sure we weren't just looking to do Braun a solid because his 8 year contract was looking good, and if we were, that's a horrible way to conduct business especially when you're throwing around $105M. It's extremely rare to buy out someone's mid to late 30 years when at the time we already had him under control for FIVE more years. I didn't think it was worth that risk at the time and still don't. So, that's not a situation where we can just shrug and say 'Big deals are going to be horrible their last few years.' We didn't HAVE to give that big extension.

And we already know that the Dodgers' offer included McCarthy, Puig, and 2 prospects, and given Braun's contract, age and history, we already know that's not a lowball offer regardless of who the 2 prospects were.


Braun's 2nd deal was a good deal at the time of signing I'd assume in most people's opinion. If you didn't want it, that's fine, but a deal that is paying $17 million to a guy at age 36 isn't bad and I think most people liked it. We didn't have to pay him through 40 and before the PED scandal, most people would assume All-Star type hitting until at least age 34 and probably the rest of the way through it. Braun isn't a pure power hitter, but power generally lasts through the late 30s.

Are there really any examples of teams passing on deals like this? The Cardinals passed on a Pujols signing because it was going to cost them 10 years from ages 32-42. Braun's extension was ages 32-36 and the money declines at the end of the deal.

The Dodgers pulled back that deal, by the way.

I have stated that I know the deal and that it was pulled back.

I can't think of a successful organization in the majors that hasn't overpaid one of its better players through their later ages. Please find me an example of one. If you want to stretch and say the Cards avoided a Pujols deal (way different than Braun) then I raise you Adam Wainwright, Johnny Peralta, and Yadi Molina's recent contracts. The Royals are one of the more frugal and cheaper franchises to see success and they're sitting on an Alex Gordon disaster.


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Offline  Re: What could Braun bring from anyone? (2017 version)
Posted: May 31, 2017, 11:40 AM Post
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Location: Kenosha, WI
The problem with the second deal is the fact we were paying for Braun's mid 30s when we didn't have to. It isn't like the mid 30s were apart of the original deal that covered his prime. It was a contract many questioned at the time. Mainly because it looked like a deal not for production, but more like a deal that would make him a career Brewer. Not to mention is was very premature with a lot of time between when the ink dried and when it was set to start.

I don't agree that we should shrug it off because "all" teams have bad contracts. We should strive to be better than other teams and make smarter decisions. As a small market making $100mil gambles to mid 30s players is one that probably shouldn't have been done. Having a bad contract that is $30mil-$50mil is one thing. I get those are bound to happen when dipping into extensions/free agency. However a $100mil problem you pretty much have to seek out.


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Offline  Re: What could Braun bring from anyone? (2017 version)
Posted: May 31, 2017, 12:00 PM Post
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MrTPlush said:
I don't agree that we should shrug it off because "all" teams have bad contracts. We should strive to be better than other teams and make smarter decisions. As a small market making $100mil gambles to mid 30s players is one that probably shouldn't have been done. Having a bad contract that is $30mil-$50mil is one thing. I get those are bound to happen when dipping into extensions/free agency. However a $100mil problem you pretty much have to seek out.


Well if you don't like it you could become a fan of another team tha -- *looks around* -- oh, you'd have nobody to choose from.

Ages 32-36 are not completely washed up years for most players. I realize that 31 is usually when the decline starts, but I think prior to the PED deal, this was a reasonable risk to make. $20 million (and $17 million at the end of it) per year is under market value for somebody that you'd have expected to be at least a 3 WAR player at those ages.

The risk of the contract was low. He still could be moved for something. I don't see how horribly this is affecting the Brewers. Those that live in the unrealistic world would say, "yeah, we could spend $80 million per year on scouting and international development every year until 2020." The reality is that he's just a somewhat large contract on a rebuilding team that is about $60-$70 million under its projected max payroll for the next 3 years. Attanasio is going to splurge in the international market regardless if he wants to. There's only so much you can do with your payroll when you're waiting a year or two to rebuild.

If the Dodgers had not backed out, we'd be sitting here today with 2 non-special prospects and we'd probably have tossed $15-20 million per year more at risky players like Neftali Feliz anyways. If we had just let Braun's initial extension expire, we'd be sitting probably in the same spot. Maybe we'd have rebuilt a year or 2 earlier. These are better outcomes but you're also leaving out the possibility that has to be assumed when the deal was signed that Braun was a 4-5 WAR player through age 35 and the small market Brewers missed out on a bargain.


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Offline  Re: What could Braun bring from anyone? (2017 version)
Posted: May 31, 2017, 1:11 PM Post
Posts: 3529
adambr2 said:
brewcrewdue80 said:
Lets be crazy upset about an AS bat whos making 76mil for 4years(14 thats deferred) causing us to not be able to spend 50+ mil for a teenager who may never take the ML field. And who if does make the ML team will be paid 6/7years during the team control. So if hes a stud theres say another 45mil making this teenager a 100mil investment for 6/7 seasons.

Makes sense to be upset with Brauns contract and plead for something far more insane in idea.

Love how after 135/120/135 this start to 2017 means Braun is a 90game player moving forward. Look up and down every ML team and contracts they put up with the last 3 years. Tell me which team had 0bad contracts? LA had near 100mil I believe last season in salary paid for players who never played for them.
Who here is a Billionaire based on their crystal ball perfection of betting with knowledge of the future? Last Year Brauns was near a 4WAR player. He started off on that track, has his injuries and now forget it he's not going to be a 1WAR player the rest of his contract?

Im doing it again, putting too much time and stress on the subject of Braun.
I do believe he wont be traded now, at least through 2018.


First and second paragraph you claim Braun doesn't have a bad contract. Then you go on to say, 'Well, every team has bad contracts, right?'

And if the 50M teenager is a stud, who ends up costing 100M for 6-7 years, that will obviously have been well worth it.

If you're asking right now would I rather have Ryan Braun for 80M or a top 30 prospect for 50M given a choice between one or the other, I'd much, much rather have the prospect.

You're right, he won't be traded, because there are no trade partners for him.

People seem to wistfully remember Braun for what he was and not really for what he is now. Braun can probably still give a good .850 OPS or so but when there's no DH spot for you and you have a highly negative defensive value, there's not much value to that 850 OPS.


So lets take 19year old post prospect breakout Arcia. He climbed to top 30prospect status. 50+ mil would have been perfect for him then? And that again is jist the cost to sign him. Not what years 1-6.5 will cost. Take Robert now and performing to Arcia's numbers. Still a great deal? If you can stomach the 50+ mil potential on a 19yr old who may never play one game at the ML level, I cant understand how a .900OPS batter and 76mil for 4years upsets you.If Braun only gives 1WAR per season it is more returned than Robert until he actually plays on a ML Team.


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Offline  Re: What could Braun bring from anyone? (2017 version)
Posted: May 31, 2017, 1:32 PM Post
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Location: Madison, WI
I'd guess their logic of the second extension was that by doing it so early they only locked themselves into age 36 and they didn't want to face the possibility of him being a FA at age 31/32 (whatever it would have been) when he'd presumably still be a superstar level hitter and where they would have had to let the best hitter in franchise history leave, or the other option of paying a dumb Pujols type contract until he's like 39/40. That's my guess on the risk/reward they were looking at. It eliminated them having ridiculous deal on the books for his late 30s. And every year they waited he would have gotten more leverage to add more to it. Of course in hindsight that wouldn't have been the case, but you can't blame management for the PED/injuries to a guy like him in seemingly great shape. No way they could see that coming.

Let's just get the DH by the 2019 season approved so we can stop worrying about this as much.


Last edited by tmwiese55 on May 31, 2017, 2:44 PM, edited 1 time in total.

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Offline  Re: What could Braun bring from anyone? (2017 version)
Posted: May 31, 2017, 2:38 PM Post
Posts: 1740
tmwiese55 said:
I'd guess their logic of the second extension was that by doing it so early they only locked themselves into age 36 and they didn't want to face the possibility of him being a FA at age 31/32 (whatever it would have been) when he's presumably still be a superstar level hitter and where they would have had to let the best hitter in franchise history leave, or the other option of paying a dumb Pujols type contract until he's like 39/40. That's my guess on the risk/reward they were looking at. It eliminated them having ridiculous deal on the books for his late 30s. And every year they waited he would have gotten more leverage to add more to it. Of course in hindsight that wouldn't have been the case, but you can't blame management for the PED/injuries to a guy like him in seemingly great shape. No way they could see that coming.

Let's just get the DH by the 2019 season approved so we can stop worrying about this as much.


Brewer management did an excellent job with the 2nd extension based on the information they had.

The Brewers did the deal on good faith, Braun did not.


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Offline  Re: What could Braun bring from anyone? (2017 version)
Posted: May 31, 2017, 4:51 PM Post
Posts: 6267
Location: Kenosha, WI
brewcrewdue80 said:
adambr2 said:
brewcrewdue80 said:
Lets be crazy upset about an AS bat whos making 76mil for 4years(14 thats deferred) causing us to not be able to spend 50+ mil for a teenager who may never take the ML field. And who if does make the ML team will be paid 6/7years during the team control. So if hes a stud theres say another 45mil making this teenager a 100mil investment for 6/7 seasons.

Makes sense to be upset with Brauns contract and plead for something far more insane in idea.

Love how after 135/120/135 this start to 2017 means Braun is a 90game player moving forward. Look up and down every ML team and contracts they put up with the last 3 years. Tell me which team had 0bad contracts? LA had near 100mil I believe last season in salary paid for players who never played for them.
Who here is a Billionaire based on their crystal ball perfection of betting with knowledge of the future? Last Year Brauns was near a 4WAR player. He started off on that track, has his injuries and now forget it he's not going to be a 1WAR player the rest of his contract?

Im doing it again, putting too much time and stress on the subject of Braun.
I do believe he wont be traded now, at least through 2018.


First and second paragraph you claim Braun doesn't have a bad contract. Then you go on to say, 'Well, every team has bad contracts, right?'

And if the 50M teenager is a stud, who ends up costing 100M for 6-7 years, that will obviously have been well worth it.

If you're asking right now would I rather have Ryan Braun for 80M or a top 30 prospect for 50M given a choice between one or the other, I'd much, much rather have the prospect.

You're right, he won't be traded, because there are no trade partners for him.

People seem to wistfully remember Braun for what he was and not really for what he is now. Braun can probably still give a good .850 OPS or so but when there's no DH spot for you and you have a highly negative defensive value, there's not much value to that 850 OPS.


So lets take 19year old post prospect breakout Arcia. He climbed to top 30prospect status. 50+ mil would have been perfect for him then? And that again is jist the cost to sign him. Not what years 1-6.5 will cost. Take Robert now and performing to Arcia's numbers. Still a great deal? If you can stomach the 50+ mil potential on a 19yr old who may never play one game at the ML level, I cant understand how a .900OPS batter and 76mil for 4years upsets you.If Braun only gives 1WAR per season it is more returned than Robert until he actually plays on a ML Team.


True...that is true. However you don't take into consideration that we could easily replace a 2 WAR Braun with Cordell/Phillips and get the same if not better overall production(hence including defense and ability to play more games). You also aren't taking into consideration the fact a $50mil elite prospect could help us when we are a top tier team while Braun likely will not.

So without a doubt I would rather have Cordell/Phillips in LF, a top 30 prospect, the two prospects from the dodgers, and Puig. I feel 110% better with all that helping me bring a trophy to Milwaukee than Ryan Braun roaming LF in his mid 30s.
In my opinion Ryan Braun is worthless to us because I believe he is blocking a player(s) that is better than him already(all aspects of game included). Ryan Braun is simply blocking similar production while costing x30 more. I believe there is a legitimate argument to be made that the Brewers should still attempt to trade him even if it is purely a salary dump.

In my opinion, moving forward, the Brewers need to implement a 4 man OF rotation where the 4th guy still gets a ton ABs where he can be comfortable on an every day basis. That way when Braun gets injured said OFer can slide over to his spot and produce at a high level like we never lost a starting OFer in the first place. What is really killing us right now is Braun getting injured and suddenly we have to trot out Nick Franklin in a pinch for 10 days. In a way we already have this type of player in Hernan Perez and it is exactly what makes him so valuable. The downside with him is the fact his defense in the OF isn't all that great. When healthy Ryan Braun is a great hitter and I get that. However, missing so much time with minor injuries is detrimental to the offense when you have to replace him with someone who is going to hit terrible until you get back.

If I had to speculate I think the Brewers are already creating their next Hernan Perez style player that will help bridge the gap when Braun is out nursing injuries all the time. Ryan Cordell, who did not play any 3B in 2016, has already compiled 60 innings there in 2017. If he can play there passably I am sure he could play 1B passably and when you add that to his OF skills you have a valuable bench bat getting near starter ABs. In my opinion that is how the Brewers are going to maximize Braun's value and the overall value of the team as a whole. Whether or not it is Ryan Cordell they need a viable replacement or any value Braun gives while healthy will be negated by the terrible value we have to endure when he is having constant off days/injuries.


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Offline  Re: What could Braun bring from anyone? (2017 version)
Posted: May 31, 2017, 5:10 PM Post
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MrTPlush said:

True...that is true. However you don't take into consideration that we could easily replace a 2 WAR Braun with Cordell/Phillips and get the same if not better overall production(hence including defense and ability to play more games). You also aren't taking into consideration the fact a $50mil elite prospect could help us when we are a top tier team while Braun likely will not.

So without a doubt I would rather have Cordell/Phillips in LF, a top 30 prospect, the two prospects from the dodgers, and Puig. I feel 110% better with all that helping me bring a trophy to Milwaukee than Ryan Braun roaming LF in his mid 30s.
In my opinion Ryan Braun is worthless to us because I believe he is blocking a player(s) that is better than him already(all aspects of game included). Ryan Braun is simply blocking similar production while costing x30 more. I believe there is a legitimate argument to be made that the Brewers should still attempt to trade him even if it is purely a salary dump.

In my opinion, moving forward, the Brewers need to implement a 4 man OF rotation where the 4th guy still gets a ton ABs where he can be comfortable on an every day basis. That way when Braun gets injured said OFer can slide over to his spot and produce at a high level like we never lost a starting OFer in the first place. What is really killing us right now is Braun getting injured and suddenly we have to trot out Nick Franklin in a pinch for 10 days. In a way we already have this type of player in Hernan Perez and it is exactly what makes him so valuable. The downside with him is the fact his defense in the OF isn't all that great. When healthy Ryan Braun is a great hitter and I get that. However, missing so much time with minor injuries is detrimental to the offense when you have to replace him with someone who is going to hit terrible until you get back.

If I had to speculate I think the Brewers are already creating their next Hernan Perez style player that will help bridge the gap when Braun is out nursing injuries all the time. Ryan Cordell, who did not play any 3B in 2016, has already compiled 60 innings there in 2017. If he can play there passably I am sure he could play 1B passably and when you add that to his OF skills you have a valuable bench bat getting near starter ABs. In my opinion that is how the Brewers are going to maximize Braun's value and the overall value of the team as a whole. Whether or not it is Ryan Cordell they need a viable replacement or any value Braun gives while healthy will be negated by the terrible value we have to endure when he is having constant off days/injuries.


He will no doubt be placed on August waivers again. I'm hoping he will get healthy and hot before them and get claimed, but most likely he'll clear again. If someone claimed him and he accepted it, I'd let him walk without hesitation .


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Offline  Re: What could Braun bring from anyone? (2017 version)
Posted: May 31, 2017, 5:28 PM Post
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adambr2 said:

He will no doubt be placed on August waivers again. I'm hoping he will get healthy and hot before them and get claimed, but most likely he'll clear again. If someone claimed him and he accepted it, I'd let him walk without hesitation .


Unless it is the Dodgers claiming Braun or the Marlins I don't see Braun waiving that no trade clause and not directed at you but in general yes Braun's no trade clause still matters if Braun is placed through waivers as he could refuse to go to that team and the Brewers would then be stuck with Braun or they would have to release him.


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Offline  Re: What could Braun bring from anyone? (2017 version)
Posted: May 31, 2017, 5:41 PM Post
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nate82 said:
adambr2 said:

He will no doubt be placed on August waivers again. I'm hoping he will get healthy and hot before them and get claimed, but most likely he'll clear again. If someone claimed him and he accepted it, I'd let him walk without hesitation .


Unless it is the Dodgers claiming Braun or the Marlins I don't see Braun waiving that no trade clause and not directed at you but in general yes Braun's no trade clause still matters if Braun is placed through waivers as he could refuse to go to that team and the Brewers would then be stuck with Braun or they would have to release him.


Yeah, that's why I added if he accepted it. I agree, and we are probably stuck with him.


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Offline  Re: What could Braun bring from anyone? (2017 version)
Posted: May 31, 2017, 5:54 PM Post
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This thread is the definition of insanity.


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Offline  Re: What could Braun bring from anyone? (2017 version)
Posted: May 31, 2017, 6:21 PM Post
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Brew4U said:
This thread is the definition of insanity.


..........why? The length of the thread? The idea of trading Braun?


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Offline  Re: What could Braun bring from anyone? (2017 version)
Posted: May 31, 2017, 6:30 PM Post
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adambr2 said:
Brew4U said:
This thread is the definition of insanity.


..........why? The length of the thread? The idea of trading Braun?


Everyone has repeated themselves so many times. It's been hashed, rehashed, and more. It is what it is but it's somewhat comical that's it's still going on. Myself included in it.


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Offline  Re: What could Braun bring from anyone? (2017 version)
Posted: May 31, 2017, 6:57 PM Post
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Location: Kenosha, WI
Brew4U said:
adambr2 said:
Brew4U said:
This thread is the definition of insanity.


..........why? The length of the thread? The idea of trading Braun?


Everyone has repeated themselves so many times. It's been hashed, rehashed, and more. It is what it is but it's somewhat comical that's it's still going on. Myself included in it.


It is an interesting topic when not much going on these days. Other than what we will do at the deadline if we are above .500. A lot of things get rehashed, but I wouldn't say there is no new information.


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Offline  Re: What could Braun bring from anyone? (2017 version)
Posted: May 31, 2017, 6:59 PM Post
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Location: Kenosha, WI
adambr2 said:
He will no doubt be placed on August waivers again. I'm hoping he will get healthy and hot before them and get claimed, but most likely he'll clear again. If someone claimed him and he accepted it, I'd let him walk without hesitation .


The Dodgers didn't even claim him last year so I can't imagine this year would be much different. Sure it is $20mil less, but I think one would rather pay $20mil to make Braun healthy.


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Offline  Re: What could Braun bring from anyone? (2017 version)
Posted: June 02, 2017, 10:42 AM Post
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nate82 said:
adambr2 said:

He will no doubt be placed on August waivers again. I'm hoping he will get healthy and hot before them and get claimed, but most likely he'll clear again. If someone claimed him and he accepted it, I'd let him walk without hesitation .


Unless it is the Dodgers claiming Braun or the Marlins I don't see Braun waiving that no trade clause and not directed at you but in general yes Braun's no trade clause still matters if Braun is placed through waivers as he could refuse to go to that team and the Brewers would then be stuck with Braun or they would have to release him.


That's interesting. If another team claims him and Braun refuses to go, would the Brewers be able to trade him in August (because he was placed on waivers) or not (because another team claimed him)?


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Offline  Re: What could Braun bring from anyone? (2017 version)
Posted: June 02, 2017, 11:31 AM Post
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If a team claims him during the waiver period they have exclusive rights to acquire Braun. If Braun says no he is not going there then the Brewers would not be able to trade him until the end of the world series to another team.


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Offline  Re: What could Braun bring from anyone? (2017 version)
Posted: June 02, 2017, 11:53 AM Post
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I wonder if a team like the Rockies would 'block' the Dodgers to avoid them putting in a claim, assuming he'd turn down coming to Colorado.

That would be very risky, though. Maybe too risky.


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Offline  Re: What could Braun bring from anyone? (2017 version)
Posted: June 02, 2017, 2:40 PM Post
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adambr2 said:
I wonder if a team like the Rockies would 'block' the Dodgers to avoid them putting in a claim, assuming he'd turn down coming to Colorado.

That would be very risky, though. Maybe too risky.


Sounds like something the Diamondbacks would do. I wonder if Braun would like Arizona?


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