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Is it possible that we could be buyers at the deadline?

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Offline  Re: Is it possible that we could be buyers at the deadline?
Posted: June 10, 2017, 11:47 AM Post
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Can only have 40 men on the roster. Eventually some of these guys won't be apart of that. Hopefully Stearns gets hot when it comes to deciding that and moving on from the others.


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Offline  Re: Is it possible that we could be buyers at the deadline?
Posted: June 10, 2017, 12:01 PM Post
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I don't want to see us doing any moves that compromise the long term by going for the short term. I'm fine with "buying" if it's for players with either a lot of team control remaining, or if it's short-term deals that don't cost us a lot. We can certainly take on salary for 2017 and 2018, even if it's for a likely rental.

But I also don't think it's as clear as being buyers or sellers. I think we may very well see deals that see us selling in areas of strength and buying in areas of weakness. That could be deals like trading away an outfielder for prospects, while using prospects to trade for major league pitching. I like both Aguilar and Thames a lot. But we also have Cooper absolutely tearing it up in AAA (.919 OPS on the road, so it's not just CS), so there's the possibility of trading one of them away without really weakening us too much.

Generally when it comes to being "buyers" or "sellers" it all comes down to what kind of deals are out there to be had. We shouldn't be buyers or sellers just for the sake of it. If it's a buyers market and we can get great value for what we give up, we do that. If it's a sellers market, even if that part of the rebuild is complete or at least mostly complete, we at least take a serious look.


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Offline  Re: Is it possible that we could be buyers at the deadline?
Posted: June 10, 2017, 12:06 PM Post
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Brew4U said:
Can only have 40 men on the roster. Eventually some of these guys won't be apart of that. Hopefully Stearns gets hot when it comes to deciding that and moving on from the others.


That is a solid point. Is there an updated listing somewhere of which Brewer minor league players are needing roster protection from the Rule 5 draft in Dec 17 and then in Dec 18??


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Offline  Re: Is it possible that we could be buyers at the deadline?
Posted: June 10, 2017, 4:13 PM Post
Posts: 1057
This just in, the Cubs lost AGAIN [smile]

Please stop posting about last year. The Cubs in 2017 are not the 2016 Cubs. Stearns has an opportunity to go for this. we are going to see if he can pull it off. HE will win EOY and Counsell will win MOY if they make the playoffs, don't mortgage the future but use prospects to fill in our holes. All these minor leaguers cannot make the bigs with us.


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Online  Re: Is it possible that we could be buyers at the deadline?
Posted: June 10, 2017, 8:20 PM Post
Posts: 2962
I'm not inclined to trade prospects this year.

If anything, the Brewers need to use this run to see which of them are for real. Then, they make trades over the winter.

Of course, if someone blows Stearns away with an offer... [smile]


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Offline  Re: Is it possible that we could be buyers at the deadline?
Posted: June 10, 2017, 10:57 PM Post
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KCBrewerfan34 said:
This just in, the Cubs lost AGAIN [smile]

Please stop posting about last year. The Cubs in 2017 are not the 2016 Cubs. Stearns has an opportunity to go for this. we are going to see if he can pull it off. HE will win EOY and Counsell will win MOY if they make the playoffs, don't mortgage the future but use prospects to fill in our holes. All these minor leaguers cannot make the bigs with us.


It's June. Less than halfway through the season. I'm not saying they have no shot but a 2 game division lead in June is totally meaningless. Whether you compare the Cubs to last year or not it's very evident they're underachieving and will likely go on a run at some point.


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Offline  Re: Is it possible that we could be buyers at the deadline?
Posted: June 10, 2017, 11:14 PM Post
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The Cubs got lucky last year. They were not as good defensively as they statistically showed last year, and their rotation was healthy for the entire season. Remember, they could have easily lost to the Giants in the NLDS last year, and they were down 3 games to 1 in the World Series. They were/are not this juggernaut that some think they are. Now you take a big step back defensively with Schwarber in LF, you get a couple of injuries to the rotation and boom... back to Earth.


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Offline  Re: Is it possible that we could be buyers at the deadline?
Posted: June 11, 2017, 7:18 AM Post
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LouisEly said:
The Cubs got lucky last year. They were not as good defensively as they statistically showed last year, and their rotation was healthy for the entire season. Remember, they could have easily lost to the Giants in the NLDS last year, and they were down 3 games to 1 in the World Series. They were/are not this juggernaut that some think they are. Now you take a big step back defensively with Schwarber in LF, you get a couple of injuries to the rotation and boom... back to Earth.


I don't think the Cubs being down 3-1 in the World Series last year is a very good case for them not being that good. I do agree there's an element of luck to them winning 103, but there's also been an element of bad luck for them to be under . 500 right now. They are still a very talented team due for some positive regression to the mean and we are kidding ourselves if we think they are going to hover around . 500 all year. Their starting pitching is without a doubt their biggest question mark, but they have both the prospects and money to do something about it, and I have no doubt we will.

None of this is me saying we can't or won't do it. Do I think the odds are still very much against us, yes, but I don't think many of us would even have put us in this position in June. We have plenty of internal improvements we can make as well, particularly with the bullpen and outfield. But we'll have to start picking it up a notch to be in this all the way.


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Offline  Re: Is it possible that we could be buyers at the deadline?
Posted: June 11, 2017, 7:53 AM Post
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Poker, Poker, Poker. The perspective that gets lost in this type of debate as people tend to shoehorn (whether they intend to or not) others into 'win now' vs. 'complete the rebuild', is that Poker actually provides a pretty good model for thinking about team level strategy. Those players never tell themselves on seeing they've got pocket aces "that was a really good start, but I wasn't planning a move until later" Instead they understand (at the pro level) the role that luck plays, but also fully integrate the cards as they have been dealt.
Undoubtedly we've been lucky, but a number of players have broken out so much (Thames is a clear case) that any preseason estimation of our talent level is just off which is part of the benefit of younger players some the 'luck' factor with them is not variation around established talent level it is these breakouts. So while we are not 'halfway' we are only 2 weeks from that point, and a 2 game lead 2 weeks from today probably translates conservatively into a 40% playoff chance which is worth raising a little bit to stay in the hand.
Luckily we have plenty of young prospects to try out in many places and avoid big expensive trades (see first comment about breaking the dichotomy). But would I trade a Ryan Cordell for a solid middle reliever with a positive track record? Sure. Would I be willing to do a Billy Beane style buying and selling trade involving Braun that lands us a middle of the rotation starter and other bits and pieces. Sure


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Online  Re: Is it possible that we could be buyers at the deadline?
Posted: June 11, 2017, 9:09 AM Post
Posts: 2962
igor67 said:
Poker, Poker, Poker. The perspective that gets lost in this type of debate as people tend to shoehorn (whether they intend to or not) others into 'win now' vs. 'complete the rebuild', is that Poker actually provides a pretty good model for thinking about team level strategy. Those players never tell themselves on seeing they've got pocket aces "that was a really good start, but I wasn't planning a move until later" Instead they understand (at the pro level) the role that luck plays, but also fully integrate the cards as they have been dealt.
Undoubtedly we've been lucky, but a number of players have broken out so much (Thames is a clear case) that any preseason estimation of our talent level is just off which is part of the benefit of younger players some the 'luck' factor with them is not variation around established talent level it is these breakouts. So while we are not 'halfway' we are only 2 weeks from that point, and a 2 game lead 2 weeks from today probably translates conservatively into a 40% playoff chance which is worth raising a little bit to stay in the hand.
Luckily we have plenty of young prospects to try out in many places and avoid big expensive trades (see first comment about breaking the dichotomy). But would I trade a Ryan Cordell for a solid middle reliever with a positive track record? Sure. Would I be willing to do a Billy Beane style buying and selling trade involving Braun that lands us a middle of the rotation starter and other bits and pieces. Sure


True, but as I said, I want to try to fill holes in-house first.

I see no reason to trade off a Cordell for a "proven" middle reliever when we have a Brent Suter or Wei-Chung Wang who might be just as good numbers-wise. If we need a bat off the bench, why not see if Cordell can be the answer, instead of giving up a Jon Perrin or Cody Ponce?

I have less worry about flipping a Ryan Aguilar for a piece, because Ryan Cordell or Garrett Cooper are people who could probably contribute as a backup at first base.

I personally think of this as more akin to blackjack. The Brewers know roughly what they have, and what the other teams have, and if you are skilled enough at counting the cards (i.e., evaluating the prospects), they can make the right bets (decide when to double down, or split up both the aces).


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Offline  Re: Is it possible that we could be buyers at the deadline?
Posted: June 11, 2017, 6:42 PM Post
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1 7th inning good bullpen arm. Thats all I'm asking for. That won't kill the rebuild. Management is almost being cruel trotting Peralta, Torres and Feliz out there.


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Offline  Re: Is it possible that we could be buyers at the deadline?
Posted: June 11, 2017, 11:24 PM Post
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KCBrewerfan34 said:
1 7th inning good bullpen arm. Thats all I'm asking for. That won't kill the rebuild. Management is almost being cruel trotting Peralta, Torres and Feliz out there.


The cost of good bullpen arms compared to the value they provide is not something we should be doing. Flip through guys in the minors and see if you can get a contributor there instead of paying insane prices for relievers.

Cards' fans wear jorts.


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Online  Re: Is it possible that we could be buyers at the deadline?
Posted: June 12, 2017, 6:44 AM Post
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Bring up Bowdien Derby or Wei-Chung Wang


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Offline  Re: Is it possible that we could be buyers at the deadline?
Posted: June 12, 2017, 9:21 AM Post
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trwi7 said:
KCBrewerfan34 said:
1 7th inning good bullpen arm. Thats all I'm asking for. That won't kill the rebuild. Management is almost being cruel trotting Peralta, Torres and Feliz out there.


The cost of good bullpen arms compared to the value they provide is not something we should be doing. Flip through guys in the minors and see if you can get a contributor there instead of paying insane prices for relievers.



Every middle reliever can't bring a king's ransom. I don't believe that. FA to be guys, older guys, teams looking to whack salary. We have a lot of good prospects. Let's hope we have a good night tonight as well!



GO Brew


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Offline  Re: Is it possible that we could be buyers at the deadline?
Posted: June 17, 2017, 8:25 AM Post
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Reminder that other organizations view the Brewers as potential buyers...

@Bill_MLBScout: Let's play 2 Carolina (Brewers) vs Potomac (Nationals) heavy hitters on hand to scout both clubs. LH Guillbeau left solid impression on Thur.


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Offline  Re: Is it possible that we could be buyers at the deadline?
Posted: June 17, 2017, 9:16 AM Post
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I think the most realistic thing we could 'buy' at the deadline is some bullpen depth - which is a tread in of itself. The other areas could be a catcher if there was an injury. And maybe a starter if there were multiple injuries.

One thing the club has is depth in most places to cover things if there is an injury. Aguilar at 1B if Thames gets hurt. If Arcia or Villar is hurt, Sogard goes to 2B (Villar could shift SS if Arcia was down). Perez could fill in at 3B for Shaw. OF depth is Phillips and Brinson. Catcher might be the only position the team would look outside the org as Susac is really struggling at AAA.

As for starting pitchers - it's Woodward. After that, they would maybe pick up someone if a couple of starters went down. But the club might still turn to the minor league guys instead - Jungmann, Lopez - or shift Hader back to the rotation.

Relievers are the biggest area would could probably make a deal for. We have lots of young options - Suter, Lopez, Hader, Wang, etc. - but the club might want a couple of more proven guys. Drake, Peralta, Torres, Hughes, Barnes - none of these guys is doing great. If someone tanks, I could see some depth added (especially if the team tries some of the minor league guys and finds them lacking).


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Offline  Re: Is it possible that we could be buyers at the deadline?
Posted: June 17, 2017, 11:17 AM Post
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reillymcshane said:
I think the most realistic thing we could 'buy' at the deadline is some bullpen depth - which is a tread in of itself. The other areas could be a catcher if there was an injury. And maybe a starter if there were multiple injuries.

One thing the club has is depth in most places to cover things if there is an injury. Aguilar at 1B if Thames gets hurt. If Arcia or Villar is hurt, Sogard goes to 2B (Villar could shift SS if Arcia was down). Perez could fill in at 3B for Shaw. OF depth is Phillips and Brinson. Catcher might be the only position the team would look outside the org as Susac is really struggling at AAA.

As for starting pitchers - it's Woodard. After that, they would maybe pick up someone if a couple of starters went down. But the club might still turn to the minor league guys instead - Jungmann, Lopez - or shift Hader back to the rotation.

Relievers are the biggest area would could probably make a deal for. We have lots of young options - Suter, Lopez, Hader, Wang, etc. - but the club might want a couple of more proven guys. Drake, Peralta, Torres, Hughes, Barnes - none of these guys is doing great. If someone tanks, I could see some depth added (especially if the team tries some of the minor league guys and finds them lacking).



Great posy Reilly, offensively we can plug and play at EVERY position except catcher. Pina is playing well while Bandy has slumped.


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Online  Re: Is it possible that we could be buyers at the deadline?
Posted: June 19, 2017, 8:01 AM Post
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Location: Madison, WI
It will be interesting to see how the situation in the American League impacts buyers in this year's market. Basically the entire American League is in the playoff race. Second wild card position belongs to Tampa Bay with a 37-35 record. Worst winning percentage belongs to the A's, their record stands at 31-38. So the worst team in the American League is only 4.5 games back. A's and White Sox have had the look of sellers all along and probably will stay in that mode. But a team like the Tigers...not so sure if they start dumping players if they hang within 3 games of a playoff spot. About two weeks ago the Rangers were playing some pretty terrible baseball and looked like they were going nowhere, and a pretty modest 7-3 run has put them 1 game behind the Rays.

If the AL stays like that through the next few weeks, it will probably be a real strong sellers market this year.


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Offline  Re: Is it possible that we could be buyers at the deadline?
Posted: June 20, 2017, 10:31 PM Post
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KCBrewerfan34 said:
This just in, the Cubs lost AGAIN [smile]

Please stop posting about last year. The Cubs in 2017 are not the 2016 Cubs. Stearns has an opportunity to go for this. we are going to see if he can pull it off. HE will win EOY and Counsell will win MOY if they make the playoffs, don't mortgage the future but use prospects to fill in our holes. All these minor leaguers cannot make the bigs with us.


The 2016 Cubs are still relevant to 2017 in the sense that they are returning a ton of talent this year from a championship team.

100% this is still the Cubs' division to lose. Even Rock and BA who are company men through and through admitted this much on the air yesterday. While Arrieta's struggles may be for real and their rotation appears to have taken a step back, it's really unrealistic to think they are going to be floundering around .500 all season.

Since the Wild Card doesn't appear to be in play I wouldn't advocate doing any major buying unless we are comfortably in 1st near the deadline, which I don't think is likely.


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Offline  Re: Is it possible that we could be buyers at the deadline?
Posted: July 06, 2017, 8:14 AM Post
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Let's say we continue to lead the division and Garza continues to pitch well and has trade value...what do we do? Trade him or keep him for the stretch run?

I'd still be of the opinion we have to continue to do what's best for this team long term. Do teams that are winning divisions ever trade a starting pitcher near the deadline?


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