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Justin Verlander

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Offline  Re: Justin Verlander
#81

Posted: July 22, 2017, 2:44 PM Post
Posts: 976
trwi7 said:
Why in God's name would you trade one of the best prospects in baseball plus more for Verlander and Kinsler?


Too much? How about Fulmer instead of Kinsler?


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Offline  Re: Justin Verlander
#82

Posted: July 22, 2017, 2:45 PM Post
Posts: 6413
Location: Kenosha, WI
rickh150 said:
Would Verlander/Kinsler and 30 million for Brinson/Villar/Clark get it done?


What year are you in? 2011?


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Offline  Re: Justin Verlander
#83

Posted: July 22, 2017, 2:48 PM Post
Posts: 976
Verlander is still a top of rotation pitcher....
Brinson is not a guaranteed above avg major leaguer.


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Offline  Re: Justin Verlander
#84

Posted: July 22, 2017, 2:51 PM Post
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rickh150 said:
Would Verlander/Kinsler and 30 million for Brinson/Villar/Clark get it done?


This is actually the most realistic trade proposal of the entire thread so far.


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Offline  Re: Justin Verlander
#85

Posted: July 22, 2017, 3:12 PM Post
Posts: 10222
MrTPlush said:
rickh150 said:
Would Verlander/Kinsler and 30 million for Brinson/Villar/Clark get it done?


What year are you in? 2011?


Reminds me of the Braun + 30M for Bellinger+DeLeon type proposals from last year only in reverse.


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Offline  Re: Justin Verlander
#86

Posted: July 22, 2017, 4:00 PM Post
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adambr2 said:
MrTPlush said:
rickh150 said:
Would Verlander/Kinsler and 30 million for Brinson/Villar/Clark get it done?


What year are you in? 2011?


Reminds me of the Braun + 30M for Bellinger+DeLeon type proposals from last year only in reverse.


It'd be interesting to know what the Dodgers were offering. I'm in the camp that believes Bellinger could have been had and Stearns got greedy. Now they don't/won't need Braun so he better pull off all the bandaids and start playing like there's a pennant to be had.

“There's a fine line between being confident and cocky, or overconfident. This is an extremely humbling game. But if you don't believe in yourself, no one else is going to believe in you.”


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Offline  Re: Justin Verlander
#87

Posted: July 22, 2017, 4:04 PM Post
Posts: 10222
I can't fathom that Bellinger was ever on the table for Braun . I'll mourn for days if it ever comes out that he was.

I love Stearns. Even if he had that chance for Bellinger and blew it, he's still the man. But boy oh boy would that ever be a hard earned lesson for a young GM, because Bellinger is an elite young player.

Its why I can't understand when people, even in a pennant race, say "I'll take the proven commodity over the unknown prospect every time!"

Of course a proven commodity is more of a sure thing. But if it were that simple, prospects would have no value because everyone would be preferring the proven commodities. Some prospects flame out. It happens. Maybe Brinson never amounts to anything. Its possible . But if your GM has the attitude of 'proven commodity over prospect every time', your team will never find the Cody Bellingers of the world and the 6+ years of control that come with it. Because he'll always be trading them away for the next available 'proven commodity.'


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Offline  Re: Justin Verlander
#88

Posted: July 22, 2017, 5:31 PM Post
Posts: 6413
Location: Kenosha, WI
A Swing and A Drive said:
rickh150 said:
Would Verlander/Kinsler and 30 million for Brinson/Villar/Clark get it done?


This is actually the most realistic trade proposal of the entire thread so far.


Not really. It's questionable either Verlander or Kinsler even have positive value due to their contracts. Ian Kinsler probably has a little positive value, but not a whole lot. Justin Verlander though? I doubt it. I doubt a team would even take the contract alone. I think you are overrating old players who aren't performing. Ryan Braun was at least performing and there were only two teams willing to touch him(Braves/Dodgers) and NEITHER would take him as a salary dump.


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Online  Re: Justin Verlander
#89

Posted: July 23, 2017, 7:54 AM Post
Posts: 513
Location: Madison, WI
rickh150 said:
Would Verlander/Kinsler and 30 million for Brinson/Villar/Clark get it done?


Brinson would never be included in a trade like this unless Attanasio fell off his rocker (would just assume at this point that he would have to be responsible for going over Stearns head in this type of trade).

At absolute best Verlander probably has a negative value of 13 million and Kinsler probably has a positive value of about 18.5 million. Throw in 30 million and that bring the value surrendered by Detroit at 35.5 million. Brinson's name should never even enter the conversation as his surplus value likely exceeds 60 million. If Verlander and Kinsler performances are projected on the high side over the rest of their contracts...and Verlander does not require the 2020 year to be guaranteed (which won't happen), a reasonable deal would be something like Verlander/Kinsler/30 million in exchange for Brandon Woodruff, Jonathan Villar, Ryan Cordell. I've projected Villar as a 1 WAR player per season over the next three years and then applied the 40/60/80 arbitration guideline which puts his surplus value at about +10.5 million. If a prospect is included instead of him it would be someone like Trent Clark, Lucas Erceg or Phil Bickford.

But personally I would value Verlander at -40.5 million in surplus value and Kinsler as a +13.8 million in surplus value. Adding 30 million to that puts it at a total of +3.3 million which is somewhere between a "role player" prospect and a "fringe prospect." Easy to say that I would have zero interest in Verlander.


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Offline  Re: Justin Verlander
#90

Posted: July 24, 2017, 4:52 PM Post
Posts: 976
JosephC said:
rickh150 said:
Would Verlander/Kinsler and 30 million for Brinson/Villar/Clark get it done?


Brinson would never be included in a trade like this unless Attanasio fell off his rocker (would just assume at this point that he would have to be responsible for going over Stearns head in this type of trade).

At absolute best Verlander probably has a negative value of 13 million and Kinsler probably has a positive value of about 18.5 million. Throw in 30 million and that bring the value surrendered by Detroit at 35.5 million. Brinson's name should never even enter the conversation as his surplus value likely exceeds 60 million. If Verlander and Kinsler performances are projected on the high side over the rest of their contracts...and Verlander does not require the 2020 year to be guaranteed (which won't happen), a reasonable deal would be something like Verlander/Kinsler/30 million in exchange for Brandon Woodruff, Jonathan Villar, Ryan Cordell. I've projected Villar as a 1 WAR player per season over the next three years and then applied the 40/60/80 arbitration guideline which puts his surplus value at about +10.5 million. If a prospect is included instead of him it would be someone like Trent Clark, Lucas Erceg or Phil Bickford.

But personally I would value Verlander at -40.5 million in surplus value and Kinsler as a +13.8 million in surplus value. Adding 30 million to that puts it at a total of +3.3 million which is somewhere between a "role player" prospect and a "fringe prospect." Easy to say that I would have zero interest in Verlander.


To get Verlander, upper level prospect(s) WILL be involved. Enough teams are in on him now, presumably and reportedly (Dodgers too now, maybe Nats), that someone will overpay to get better starting pitching for the rest of season and playoffs. I can't see the Brewers being in the mix anymore... too many teams in the mix, price too high in prospects.


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Offline  Re: Justin Verlander
#91

Posted: August 01, 2017, 1:10 PM Post
Posts: 976
Should Verlander be claimed by Brewers if/when put on waivers?
If we do, Detroit could just give him to us, leaving us on the hook for his salary.
Detroit could pull him back, keeping him.
Or, a trade could be worked out with guys passing thru waivers.

I can hardly see Detroit just giving us Verlander, even though giving us that bloated contract would be tempting. They would want something back.


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Offline  Re: Justin Verlander
#92

Posted: August 01, 2017, 1:15 PM Post
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Location: Green Bay, WI
If Verlander cleared waivers, it would be just like before the 7/31 deadline where he has his 10/5 no trade rights. What I'm not clear on is, if a team claimed him on revocable waivers and a deal was worked out (or the Tigers wanted to let him go), can he still veto a trade via the 10/5 rights? Or is it looked at like a waiver claim and he has no veto power?


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Offline  Re: Justin Verlander
#93

Posted: August 01, 2017, 2:26 PM Post
Posts: 10222
Point Beer Is Best said:
If Verlander cleared waivers, it would be just like before the 7/31 deadline where he has his 10/5 no trade rights. What I'm not clear on is, if a team claimed him on revocable waivers and a deal was worked out (or the Tigers wanted to let him go), can he still veto a trade via the 10/5 rights? Or is it looked at like a waiver claim and he has no veto power?


Players with a NTC can still veto a waiver claim/trade. Even if we claimed Verlander directly with no trade and the Tigers did not pull him back, Verlander would have the right to refuse.


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Offline  Re: Justin Verlander
#94

Posted: August 01, 2017, 2:38 PM Post
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Point Beer Is Best said:
If Verlander cleared waivers, it would be just like before the 7/31 deadline where he has his 10/5 no trade rights. What I'm not clear on is, if a team claimed him on revocable waivers and a deal was worked out (or the Tigers wanted to let him go), can he still veto a trade via the 10/5 rights? Or is it looked at like a waiver claim and he has no veto power?


Verlander would retain his right to veto, so if we claimed him and the Tigers wanted to just drop him for nothing, he'd still have to approve it, which I doubt he would do under those circumstances.

Kind of a moot point, the Tigers won't let Verlander go for nothing.


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Offline  Re: Justin Verlander
#95

Posted: August 05, 2017, 7:27 AM Post
Posts: 936
Love this idea...

https://twitter.com/JonHeyman/status/893823743096705025


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Offline  Re: Justin Verlander
#96

Posted: August 05, 2017, 7:45 AM Post
Posts: 6413
Location: Kenosha, WI
I like the idea if it involves not a lot prospect wise and we pick up a lot of the contract. However he has been pitching really well of late. Either you pay up or they will just hold onto him.

I'm probably in the camp that would risk a little more to bring him in, but that's because his recent stretch of games has been really really good. The success of our rotation in recent weeks makes me doubt this kind of move though. I am also concerned how long term Verlander truly is. How confident can one honestly be the next two years he will be really good?

Also he cleared waivers for what it is worth.


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Online  Re: Justin Verlander
#97

Posted: August 05, 2017, 9:04 AM Post
Posts: 513
Location: Madison, WI
He's like Braun was last year. The contract is an issue. The more of the contract that Detroit is willing to pick up, the better the return will be. If Detroit picks up something like 40 million they should get a pretty decent return, but if they are only willing to pick up something like 10 million the return probably wouldn't be good enough for them to consider trading him. Also have to assume that the team that makes the trade will have to guarantee the last year of Verlander's deal to get his approval for the move which is another big hurdle in completing a deal. Lots to overcome in all of this. Verlander is likely wearing a Tiger's uniform at the end of the year.


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Offline  Re: Justin Verlander
#98

Posted: August 05, 2017, 10:03 AM Post
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Verlander has cleared waivers. The Brewers could have claimed him, and risked being stuck with $65M salary for 2017-19.

Now Detroit can negotiate with every team.

The big caveat is that Milwaukee is probably one of the few teams that can absorb Verlander's salary. So many clubs are just maxed out on salary this year - and $9M more in 2017 is a lot (not to mention the salaries for 2018-19).

If the Crew did want Verlander - and he was willing to come here - we should get Detroit to kick in at least $10-15M, and send them a non-prospect.


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Offline  Re: Justin Verlander
#99

Posted: August 05, 2017, 10:15 AM Post
Posts: 7250
Reillymcshane, I've long advocated acquiring Verlander for many of the reasons in that article. I would consider taking him on with his entire salary if we could give up fringe prospects--guys like Taylor, Coulter, Jungmann, Lopez, Wren. I'd even consider Dubon, Erceg, or Ray


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Offline  Re: Justin Verlander
Posted: August 05, 2017, 10:34 AM Post
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DHonks said:
Reillymcshane, I've long advocated acquiring Verlander for many of the reasons in that article. I would consider taking him on with his entire salary if we could give up fringe prospects--guys like Taylor, Coulter, Jungmann, Lopez, Wren. I'd even consider Dubon, Erceg, or Ray

I think if you take on his entire salary you're not giving up anything of value. Just a non-prospect.


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