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Justin Verlander

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Offline  Re: Justin Verlander
#41

Posted: July 20, 2017, 3:01 PM Post
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i just reviewed his game log, he has had 3 bad outings so far this season, which has really inflated his stats. i think if the Tigers are simply looking to unload salary and do not expect top prospects back this would be the way to go rather than unload the farm to get a Gray.


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Offline  Re: Justin Verlander
#42

Posted: July 20, 2017, 3:05 PM Post
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Verlander gives the Brewers a shot to get interesting with the players they trade to detroit. he should cost zero top prospects---like nothing close. He's Detroit's Braun. I think something like Verlander and all his contract should net Detroit something like Keon Broxton and Lara.

If they want real prospects, they are gonna have to chip in a bunch of money. If they include Wilson, they probably net 1 top ten guy. not in the BA top 100, 1 top ten organizational guy from whoever gets him if he's bundled with Verlander.

I could maybe see someone like Villar moved for both of them.

I like the Verlander idea a bunch, much more than Gray. I'd rather spend Mark's money than trade the prospects.


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Offline  Re: Justin Verlander
#43

Posted: July 20, 2017, 3:25 PM Post
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Could they include Kinsler, as well?


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Offline  Re: Justin Verlander
#44

Posted: July 20, 2017, 3:34 PM Post
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mattyo said:
reillymcshane said:
Verlander - as an asset - is essentially underwater.

He's due another $10-12M or so for 2017. He's due $28M for 2018 and 2019. That's $68-70M.

I guess the question is, if Justin Verlander was a free agent right now, what annual salary would you give him on a contract that goes through 2019? $10M? $15M $20M?

It certainly wouldn't be $28M. I'm guessing someone would give him 1/2 that - so $14M or so. That's just a guess.

I realize the excellent 2016 is really enticing - but in reality, Verlander has been pretty mediocre (other than 2016).

His Fangraphs WAR the last few years goes as follows:

2014: 2.9
2015: 2.9
2016: 5.2
2017: 1.7 (thus far)

Baseball Reference has Verlander's WAR to at 1.1, 2.2, 6.6 and 1.1 - so quite a bit worse than Fangraphs.

Even if you overpay Verlander a bit - just on the outside chance he can regain his 2016 form - the Tigers would still have to include at least $25M or so (or equivalent assets). And we wouldn't be giving up anything of real value to make the deal.

The whole no-trade clause that Verlander has further muddies the situation.

I doubt the Crew really is that interested in him (but you never know). In reality, it's probably just playing the field. Stearns is asking about any starter - signaling to the A's (and other clubs) that we can look elsewhere if you ask too much.


Agreed with all of this. But with how small our payroll is, why not try to package Verlander with a reliever like Wilson, agree to take on a lot of Verlander's salary, and thus lessen the quality of prospects needed to get the deal done. That way we add a potentially great SP, a very good reliever, and keep our farm system intact.

You are exactly correct. As I noted, the Tigers would have to send back money - or equivalent assets. That means players of value.

One that that the Brewers have is financial flexibility. It's a valuable thing to have. It's like any asset - prospects, players, whatever - it allows to to take on salary when we see fit. Many teams can't take on $10M or $20M or whatever in salary. That we can gives us more bargaining power.

I'm not saying we go out and get Verlander. I haven't really seen the guy pitch for a while. That's for the teams scouts to do. But it's something to consider.


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Offline  Re: Justin Verlander
#45

Posted: July 20, 2017, 4:32 PM Post
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JV/Wilson/Kinsler for gate wood/Reed/some low A guy

We take on all salary


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Offline  Re: Justin Verlander
#46

Posted: July 20, 2017, 4:46 PM Post
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mlloyd10 said:
JV/Wilson/Kinsler for gate wood/Reed/some low A guy

We take on all salary


Wouldn't that be 80 million plus? Uh, I can't see us doing that. Maybe if they include 25 million...


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Offline  Re: Justin Verlander
#47

Posted: July 20, 2017, 5:08 PM Post
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Verlander and his salary is worth a bag of baseballs. We would be doing the Tigers a tremendous favor. We also might be the only team in baseball willing to do this and it might be their only chance to get his salary off the books.

I think players and salary will be involved since it would look bad for the Tigers to send him over for nothing.

I'm all green light if Mark A wants to spend the cash. Get it done and get Verlander in there against the Nationals next week.


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Offline  Re: Justin Verlander
#48

Posted: July 20, 2017, 5:17 PM Post
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Remember, Verlander has to approve but I can't see Verlander wanting to be on a team that's now on a decline. Not only that, who wants to live in Detroit. And the NL is easier to pitch than the AL.


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Online  Re: Justin Verlander
#49

Posted: July 20, 2017, 5:21 PM Post
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Location: New Berlin, WI
owbc said:
Verlander and his salary is worth a bag of baseballs. We would be doing the Tigers a tremendous favor. We also might be the only team in baseball willing to do this and it might be their only chance to get his salary off the books.

I think players and salary will be involved since it would look bad for the Tigers to send him over for nothing.

I'm all green light if Mark A wants to spend the cash. Get it done and get Verlander in there against the Nationals next week.


I tend to agree with most on the thread. We get verlander and take on most salary, they get something like Clark plus jungmann plus Zack Brown. Clark and jungmann can be touted as 1st round picks to their casual fans. Most of our other talent should be cheap enough to keep some payroll flexibility even with most of his contract added on through 2019 when he drops off and 2020 when Brauns drops off. The tigers already signaled they were dropping out of contention for at least this year when they punted Martinez for salary relief and little more.


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Offline  Re: Justin Verlander
#50

Posted: July 20, 2017, 5:21 PM Post
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rickh150 said:
Could they include Kinsler, as well?


Or we could have just kept Scooter and his 900 plus OPS.


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Offline  Re: Justin Verlander
#51

Posted: July 20, 2017, 5:38 PM Post
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HighHeat19 said:
Remember, Verlander has to approve but I can't see Verlander wanting to be on a team that's now on a decline. Not only that, who wants to live in Detroit. And the NL is easier to pitch than the AL.


It would be a real bummer if Verlander vetoes the (hypothetical) trade. This isn't a temporary move, he's going to be stuck in Milwaukee for a few years.


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Offline  Re: Justin Verlander
#52

Posted: July 20, 2017, 6:13 PM Post
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Going for Verlander instead of using actual assets for a controllable pitcher in his prime is more PR than it is a real effort to make a playoff run.


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Offline  Re: Justin Verlander
#53

Posted: July 20, 2017, 6:13 PM Post
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Boomer5 said:
rickh150 said:
Could they include Kinsler, as well?


Or we could have just kept Scooter and his 900 plus OPS.


Then we wouldn't have Sogard.


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Offline  Re: Justin Verlander
#54

Posted: July 20, 2017, 6:16 PM Post
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JohnBriggs12 said:
Going for Verlander instead of using actual assets for a controllable pitcher in his prime is more PR than it is a real effort to make a playoff run.


No way.... he can still pitch. Three really bad starts has his ERA up. He wouldn't be my first choice, but if we wouldn't have to give up much (oh yeah, except $), go get him.


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Offline  Re: Justin Verlander
#55

Posted: July 20, 2017, 6:34 PM Post
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KeithStone53151 said:
owbc said:
Verlander and his salary is worth a bag of baseballs. We would be doing the Tigers a tremendous favor. We also might be the only team in baseball willing to do this and it might be their only chance to get his salary off the books.

I think players and salary will be involved since it would look bad for the Tigers to send him over for nothing.

I'm all green light if Mark A wants to spend the cash. Get it done and get Verlander in there against the Nationals next week.


I tend to agree with most on the thread. We get verlander and take on most salary, they get something like Clark plus jungmann plus Zack Brown. Clark and jungmann can be touted as 1st round picks to their casual fans. Most of our other talent should be cheap enough to keep some payroll flexibility even with most of his contract added on through 2019 when he drops off and 2020 when Brauns drops off. The tigers already signaled they were dropping out of contention for at least this year when they punted Martinez for salary relief and little more.


Clark? Trent Clark? No thanks.

Why give up real assets for a guy who is pretty questionable. He may do well the rest of the year, but what about the other two years? Could end up a total dumpster fire at his age. Too risky.


Last edited by MrTPlush on July 20, 2017, 7:28 PM, edited 1 time in total.

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Offline  Re: Justin Verlander
#56

Posted: July 20, 2017, 6:39 PM Post
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Location: Madison, WI
I don't think this will happen. If it ever did get close to happening I think Verlander's no-trade rights plus the 2020 year would end up killing the trade. I can't imagine Verlander would approve the deal without getting something in return, and the return would be for him to demand the 2020 vesting option be converted to a player option which takes the contract up another 22 million. I don't think the Tigers would be willing to kick in even more money to protect the Brewer's 2020 finances and I don't see Stearns being real optimistic about being on the hook for 22 million to a 37 year old pitcher.

I don't blame Stearns for doing his due-diligence on Verlander but to me it seems like a real, real, real long-shot. But who knows, stranger things have happened.


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Offline  Re: Justin Verlander
#57

Posted: July 20, 2017, 7:09 PM Post
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Location: Madison, WI
Baseball Reference WAR values on Verlander from 2014-2017 (2017 pro-rated to full season, currently 7/12 of way into season) : 1.1, 2.0, 6.6, 1.9

Fangraphs WAR values on Verlander from 2014-2017 (again, 2017 pro-rated to full season) : 2.9, 2.9, 5.2, 2.9

Average of the two from 2014-2017 = 2.0, 2.45, 5.9, 2.4

Hard to look at those numbers and think that 2016 was anything but an outlier.

Probably pretty fair to apply the 0.5 annual loss in value to him at this point considering he will be in his age 35 season in 2018.

If you accept all that, projected annual WAR and value through 2020:
remainder of 2017 = 1.0 * 8.56 = 8.56 million
2018 = 1.9 * 9.16 = 17.404 million
2019 = 1.4 * 9.80 = 13.72 million
2020 = 0.9 * 10.49 = 9.441 million
Total value = 49.125 million

Verlander is scheduled to make:
remainder of 2017 (estimate is just 5/12 of yearly salary) = 11.667 million
2018 = 28 million
2019 = 28 million
2020 = 22 million (assuming this becomes a player option)
Total earnings = 89.667 million

I'd personally have him as having minus 40 million in surplus value.

But let's assume the 2020 vesting option isn't converted to a player option and does not vest so the contract ends at 2019. Let's also assume that Verlander's performance does not drop between now and the end of 2019. He's projected to finish with a 2.4 WAR this year so let's assume that for 2018 and 2019 as well. Doing so would take Verlander's total value to 54.064 million and he would earn 67.667 million over that same period...so with those assumptions his surplus value would only be minus 13.603 million. If that's how both teams see it, there is enough wiggle room where the Brewers maybe get Verlander plus about 20 million from Detroit (or maybe Justin Wilson instead of a big chunk of that cash) and the Tigers get a couple nice prospects back from Milwaukee (maybe Trent Clark and Freddy Peralta). But I still think Verlander leverages the 2020 season to wave his no-trade and then I just don't see anything happening...the numbers don't make sense at that point.


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Online  Re: Justin Verlander
#58

Posted: July 20, 2017, 8:29 PM Post
Posts: 3682
Location: New Berlin, WI
MrTPlush said:
KeithStone53151 said:
owbc said:
Verlander and his salary is worth a bag of baseballs. We would be doing the Tigers a tremendous favor. We also might be the only team in baseball willing to do this and it might be their only chance to get his salary off the books.

I think players and salary will be involved since it would look bad for the Tigers to send him over for nothing.

I'm all green light if Mark A wants to spend the cash. Get it done and get Verlander in there against the Nationals next week.


I tend to agree with most on the thread. We get verlander and take on most salary, they get something like Clark plus jungmann plus Zack Brown. Clark and jungmann can be touted as 1st round picks to their casual fans. Most of our other talent should be cheap enough to keep some payroll flexibility even with most of his contract added on through 2019 when he drops off and 2020 when Brauns drops off. The tigers already signaled they were dropping out of contention for at least this year when they punted Martinez for salary relief and little more.


Clark? Trent Clark? No thanks.

Why give up real assets for a guy who is pretty questionable. He may do well the rest of the year, but what about the other two years? Could end up a total dumpster fire at his age. Too risky.


Fair enough, I personally don't view Clark as much of a prospect but that's my opinion. He had 4th outfielder/tweener written all over him on draft day. That's another conversation though. From Detroit's standpoint, it's gonna be tough to sell a pure salary dump for an effective starting pitcher. Maybe do gatewood or Harrison or diplan, but they will surely need something of quality or they won't do the trade. I'm sure they'll also eat a chunk of salary to get some prospect return, so it's not like we'd take on all the $.


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Offline  Re: Justin Verlander
#59

Posted: July 20, 2017, 8:32 PM Post
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Vandelander not going to waive his deal


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Offline  Re: Justin Verlander
#60

Posted: July 20, 2017, 9:01 PM Post
Posts: 7668
Really don't know, very I interesting. This is the type of deal they should be looking at at least. Sometimes you need to take a risk, and I love that too prospects don't need to be involved. If they werent already saddled with Nrauns dead money, woyld be a lot easier decision.


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