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JA Happ

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Offline  JA Happ
#1

Posted: July 04, 2017, 2:59 PM Post
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Just throwing out his name for discussion.

Owed $13 million for 2018.

"Dustin Pedroia doesn't have the strength or bat speed to hit major-league pitching consistently, and he has no power......He probably has a future as a backup infielder if he can stop rolling over to third base and shortstop." Keith Law, 2006


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Offline  Re: JA Happ
#2

Posted: July 04, 2017, 6:12 PM Post
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Happ has turned himself into a pretty reliable starter the last couple seasons. Worth asking about.


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Offline  Re: JA Happ
#3

Posted: July 04, 2017, 9:48 PM Post
Posts: 1054
Absolutely hes been hurt but now he's back. I would be calling the Jays, take Estrada off their hands if they want to cut some salary.


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Offline  Re: JA Happ
#4

Posted: July 05, 2017, 6:53 AM Post
Posts: 10396
Happ would be a nice fit. Not a big financial commitment but get one more year. Won't take gutting the system. Toronto's playoff hopes hanging by a string so very likely to be sellers. I can see Stearns pulling the trigger for Happ.


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Offline  Re: JA Happ
#5

Posted: July 05, 2017, 8:25 AM Post
Posts: 328
Location: Madison, WI
I'm getting the feeling that Stearns will go out and get a starter but will get a veteran in the final year of his deal that is currently struggling and hope that he turns it around with a change of scenery. At this point I think he will just be too hesitant to give up prospects that hold real value, so he'll just troll the bottom of the market and maybe get lucky. The Blue Jays have two of those guys in Marco Estrada and Francisco Liriano. It's easy to look at Liriano's 5.66 ERA and 1.61 WHIP and conclude that he is probably worse than anything the Brewers have right now. But last year at around this same time Liriano had a 5.46 ERA and 1.62 WHIP for the Pirates, and then was traded to the Blue Jays and he ended up posting a 2.92 ERA and 1.18 WHIP after the trade. A guy like that has been around the block and has appeared in the post-season in four different seasons.

I like Happ too but think the price-tag on him might be pretty high. From 2014-2017 he has a 3.64 ERA, 1.25 WHIP and 3.86 FIP. Durability has been a big, big issue with him but the trading team would only be taking him on for 1.5 seasons. He's also a lefty and currently pitching well in the AL East which are two more factors that will probably over-inflate his value. Other thing is that Toronto probably won't be motivated to move him since they already have Estrada and Liriano heading into free agency and probably won't bring either of them back. Hard for an organization to lose that many starting pitchers at once. But we'll see, they should feel pretty good about Stroman and Sanchez at the top and they just need to fill in spots after those two players. Still hard losing 3 starters at the trade deadline/following off-season.


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Offline  Re: JA Happ
#6

Posted: July 05, 2017, 1:41 PM Post
Posts: 100
JosephC said:
I'm getting the feeling that Stearns will go out and get a starter but will get a veteran in the final year of his deal that is currently struggling and hope that he turns it around with a change of scenery. At this point I think he will just be too hesitant to give up prospects that hold real value, so he'll just troll the bottom of the market and maybe get lucky.


I hope he does exactly that.


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Offline  Re: JA Happ
#7

Posted: July 05, 2017, 4:13 PM Post
Posts: 10396
Lathund said:
JosephC said:
I'm getting the feeling that Stearns will go out and get a starter but will get a veteran in the final year of his deal that is currently struggling and hope that he turns it around with a change of scenery. At this point I think he will just be too hesitant to give up prospects that hold real value, so he'll just troll the bottom of the market and maybe get lucky.


I hope he does exactly that.


I don't see it. They have strength in numbers at some positions in their system and a guy like Happ could be flipped next year if they fall out of contention. I think he'll pursue any avenue short of the multi-prospect deal that landed Sabathia for just 3 months.. Heck Anderson is a direct result of the Grienke deal.


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Offline  Re: JA Happ
#8

Posted: July 05, 2017, 9:11 PM Post
Posts: 3482
This is the guy I'm targeting if I were to seek a veteran arm who is streaky good. I get with the poster above that Toronto is losing some arms, but Happ has 13mil that for Toronto could open to a FA signing. I'd think it'd cost just 2 prospects for him and they don't have to come from the top but around 5-12 would be strong enough or one top ten and 2 within top 30. They could use some OF help and Ryan Cordell would be a fun target by the Blue Jays, as he'd get at bats vs. Boston. Maybe you could see how much they'd like Villar as their SS/2b situation is filled with oft injured guys. Catcher they certainly could use a backup. I think Happ would come with a decent pricetag, but not one that hurts the top of the rankings.


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Offline  Re: JA Happ
#9

Posted: July 05, 2017, 9:19 PM Post
Posts: 47
Location: Eau claire
If were looking at Toronto arms why not go big and go for Stroman? Would be expensive, but hes 26 and could be an achor of our rotation for the next several years.

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Offline  Re: JA Happ
#10

Posted: July 06, 2017, 3:53 PM Post
Posts: 135
I haven't been enamored by any of the "TOR" available starters available this summer so far but if Stroman becomes available he's a guy I would definitely think about putting a massive package together for. It'd be nice to know if he'd be willing to sign an extension here too before a deal. One can dream, right?


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Offline  Re: JA Happ
#11

Posted: July 06, 2017, 5:39 PM Post
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Count me in for a Marco Estrada reunion if the price is right.


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Offline  Re: JA Happ
#12

Posted: July 06, 2017, 6:45 PM Post
Posts: 1120
I'm game for Liriano as long as the farm isn't given away. If Stroman wasn't a midget I would give some of the farm away for though.


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Offline  Re: JA Happ
#13

Posted: July 08, 2017, 3:58 AM Post
Posts: 92
JohnBriggs12 said:
Lathund said:
JosephC said:
I'm getting the feeling that Stearns will go out and get a starter but will get a veteran in the final year of his deal that is currently struggling and hope that he turns it around with a change of scenery. At this point I think he will just be too hesitant to give up prospects that hold real value, so he'll just troll the bottom of the market and maybe get lucky.


I hope he does exactly that.


I don't see it. They have strength in numbers at some positions in their system and a guy like Happ could be flipped next year if they fall out of contention. I think he'll pursue any avenue short of the multi-prospect deal that landed Sabathia for just 3 months.. Heck Anderson is a direct result of the Grienke deal.


I would be all for that...definitely moreso the Grinke type trade than the Sabathia, but which pitcher is that? I just don't see that guy on the market. That's sure not Sonny Gray or Quitana. That's MAYBE Archer from TB but not only are they unlikely to trade him, that would take a lot.

I am really starting to believe that the Cubs just might not get it going and the Brewers will keep playing well, but there is still such a huge gap between the Nats, Dodgers and the rest of the NL that it'd take a true ace(and probably a really good, durable reliever) for the Brewers to stand a chance...should they get to a playoff series.


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Offline  Re: JA Happ
#14

Posted: July 11, 2017, 11:07 AM Post
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Happ is probably the guy I'm advocating more the most at this point. I think his acquisition cost would be lower than a lot of the names out there, he has another season of control, and he has playoff experience in a rotation that could use some.

I'd be interested to hear what the Blue Jays' asking price is for him. Would Happ for Broxton straight up be doable? Or maybe Happ for Broxton and someone like Medeiros or Yamamoto? I don't think it would take a top 10 prospect to get Happ.


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Offline  Re: JA Happ
#15

Posted: July 12, 2017, 7:02 PM Post
Posts: 328
Location: Madison, WI
Average (Fangraphs/Baseball Reference) of Happ's WAR in 2015 and 2016 was 2.9 and 3.85. So far this year it's 1.15 so project that out to 2.3 this year. Take that three year average and he sits right at a 3 WAR player. Assuming he performs over that level the next year and a half and it puts his value at about 40.32 million. He's scheduled to make 19.5 million over that timeframe so I'd put his surplus value at right around 21 million. That is right about in the range of two "top 10 organizational prospects" OR a "back end of the top 100 prospect" plus a "role player prospect." However, with the Blue Jays losing two other starters and not really needing to move Happ, I'd guess they'd probably need about 30 million dollars in surplus value to make the deal.

I'd guess something like:

Package 1 = Luis Ortiz and Trent Clark

Package 2 = Brett Phillips and Phil Bickford and Ryan Cordell

But if the Blue Jays were just willing to take what I think the true value of Happ is (about 21 million in surplus value), then I would expect the deal to be something like:

Package 1 = Luis Ortiz and Clint Coulter

Package 2 = Brett Phillips and Cody Ponce and Wendell Rijo


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Offline  Re: JA Happ
#16

Posted: July 12, 2017, 7:03 PM Post
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Greenleaf1 said:
Happ is probably the guy I'm advocating more the most at this point. I think his acquisition cost would be lower than a lot of the names out there, he has another season of control, and he has playoff experience in a rotation that could use some.

I'd be interested to hear what the Blue Jays' asking price is for him. Would Happ for Broxton straight up be doable? Or maybe Happ for Broxton and someone like Medeiros or Yamamoto? I don't think it would take a top 10 prospect to get Happ.


I have a hunch they won't give up Broxton. It would be minor league guys.

"Dustin Pedroia doesn't have the strength or bat speed to hit major-league pitching consistently, and he has no power......He probably has a future as a backup infielder if he can stop rolling over to third base and shortstop." Keith Law, 2006


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Offline  Re: JA Happ
#17

Posted: July 12, 2017, 7:10 PM Post
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JosephC said:
Average (Fangraphs/Baseball Reference) of Happ's WAR in 2015 and 2016 was 2.9 and 3.85. So far this year it's 1.15 so project that out to 2.3 this year. Take that three year average and he sits right at a 3 WAR player. Assuming he performs over that level the next year and a half and it puts his value at about 40.32 million. He's scheduled to make 19.5 million over that timeframe so I'd put his surplus value at right around 21 million. That is right about in the range of two "top 10 organizational prospects" OR a "back end of the top 100 prospect" plus a "role player prospect." However, with the Blue Jays losing two other starters and not really needing to move Happ, I'd guess they'd probably need about 30 million dollars in surplus value to make the deal.

I'd guess something like:

Package 1 = Luis Ortiz and Trent Clark

Package 2 = Brett Phillips and Phil Bickford and Ryan Cordell

But if the Blue Jays were just willing to take what I think the true value of Happ is (about 21 million in surplus value), then I would expect the deal to be something like:

Package 1 = Luis Ortiz and Clint Coulter

Package 2 = Brett Phillips and Cody Ponce and Wendell Rijo
It might just be me, but those packages seem like a lot for a pitcher that's turning 35 in a few months. You almost have to assume regression when acquiring him.


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Offline  Re: JA Happ
#18

Posted: July 13, 2017, 7:21 PM Post
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homer said:
Greenleaf1 said:
Happ is probably the guy I'm advocating more the most at this point. I think his acquisition cost would be lower than a lot of the names out there, he has another season of control, and he has playoff experience in a rotation that could use some.

I'd be interested to hear what the Blue Jays' asking price is for him. Would Happ for Broxton straight up be doable? Or maybe Happ for Broxton and someone like Medeiros or Yamamoto? I don't think it would take a top 10 prospect to get Happ.


I have a hunch they won't give up Broxton. It would be minor league guys.


With Brinson in the wings, I tend to think it might be time to cash in on Broxton.


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Offline  Re: JA Happ
#19

Posted: July 14, 2017, 12:19 PM Post
Posts: 3482
Looking back at Game Logs and 2016 Happ's ERA never went above 3.70 and finished at 3.18 in 195IP. 12 of 32 GS went 7IP or more. Has postseason experience....why look elsewhere?


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Offline  Re: JA Happ
#20

Posted: July 15, 2017, 9:45 AM Post
Posts: 421
Whenever a deal is made it takes at least 2 sides..
Try to remember that the current leadership in Toronto is Mark Shapiro & Ross Atkins, formerly in Cleveland until 2016..
You can look at their trade history in Cleveland to get a sense how they look at things.

Two words I would use to describe them: slow, methodical


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