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Sonny Gray- Let's GO FOR IT! Here's a plan...

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Offline  Re: Sonny Gray- Let's GO FOR IT! Here's a plan...
Posted: July 16, 2017, 10:47 PM Post
Posts: 6238
Location: Kenosha, WI
clancyphile said:
What about a package centering around Davies and Jungmann with Ray and Wren?

Give the A's two pitchers, a stopgap CF (Wren's stuck behind other players), and a CF prospect?


I think a package centered around Tim Dillard would suffice.


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Offline  Re: Sonny Gray- Let's GO FOR IT! Here's a plan...
Posted: July 16, 2017, 10:58 PM Post
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Posts: 588
Humans Need Water said:
Why does every trade proposal include us getting a rotation arm in return? I don't see the immediately need to upgrade from Nelson, Chase, Guerra, Garza, Davies. Especially when we have Woodruff waiting in the wings this year. People were DYING for Woodruff to be up earlier now it's crickets because this team is clicking hard and looking really good so now all of a sudden people are turning to giving up several top prospects for one rotation arm.

A solid pen arm is what they need most.

All last year it was people whining about Phillips and Nottingham and now it's turned to the Mudcats team. Zero patience here. Zero big picture thinking



And if the Brewers would have been in this position last season, Brewer fans and prospect hounds would have said that Phillips and Nottingham are "untouchables" in any trade.

Now a full year later, those prospects "shine" has worn off a bit and the reality of it is that those guys could not come close to headlining a deal for a significant trade deadline piece like Quintana. Phillips could maybe be a 3rd piece in a trade and Nottingham would almost be just a throw in at this point.

I'm sorry but our current rotation is filled with question marks and guys with short track records of success.

I think most Brewer fans would pick Jimmy Nelson to pitch Game 1 of a playoff game at this point.

I hope his breakout is real, but let's not forget that this is a guy who didn't even have a rotation spot of his own entering this season and lost 16 games last year with a 4.62 ERA and an awful 1.52 WHIP.

Anderson and Guerra are hurt.

Garza and Davies can not be consistently counted on to pitch well.

Woodruff is a rookie who's also going to be coming off injury. Growing pains at MLB level are the norm.

And I'm not as convinced that the Brewers need a arm for the pen as bad as some do. Knebel, Barnes and Hughes have all been pretty solid. Drake is like a right handed LOOGY. Hader has been good when used. Torres is a veteran with a long track record of success. Stearns just traded for LHP bullpen depth with Tyler Webb and picked Jeanmar Gomez off the waiver wire.


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Offline  Re: Sonny Gray- Let's GO FOR IT! Here's a plan...
Posted: July 16, 2017, 11:14 PM Post
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Posts: 589
Location: La Crosse
I'm sorry but our current rotation is filled with question marks and guys with short track records of success.

This can be said about literally the whole entire team minus Braun.


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Offline  Re: Sonny Gray- Let's GO FOR IT! Here's a plan...
Posted: July 16, 2017, 11:22 PM Post
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Posts: 588
Actually Braun's spotty health makes him a question mark as well.

lol


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Offline  Re: Sonny Gray- Let's GO FOR IT! Here's a plan...
Posted: July 17, 2017, 6:38 AM Post
Posts: 250
trwi7 said:
clancyphile said:
What about a package centering around Davies and Jungmann with Ray and Wren?

Give the A's two pitchers, a stopgap CF (Wren's stuck behind other players), and a CF prospect?


Come on. Oakland doesn't even consider that for a second.


I don't think it's too far off. maybe something like Broxton, Jungmann, Ray and Diplan.


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Offline  Re: Sonny Gray- Let's GO FOR IT! Here's a plan...
Posted: July 17, 2017, 6:46 AM Post
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Posts: 1229
Here Oakland, please avail yourself of our poo poo platter


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Offline  Re: Sonny Gray- Let's GO FOR IT! Here's a plan...
Posted: July 17, 2017, 7:21 AM Post
Posts: 426
Location: Madison, WI
A Swing and A Drive said:

I think most Brewer fans would pick Jimmy Nelson to pitch Game 1 of a playoff game at this point.

I hope his breakout is real, but let's not forget that this is a guy who didn't even have a rotation spot of his own entering this season and lost 16 games last year with a 4.62 ERA and an awful 1.52 WHIP.



Sonny Gray had a 5.69 ERA and 1.50 WHIP last year.

Average WAR between Baseball Reference and Fangraphs:

2017 (so far):
Jimmy Nelson = 2.8
Chase Anderson = 2.3
Sonny Gray = 1.6

2016:
Chase Anderson = 0.8
Jimmy Nelson = 0.6
Sonny Gray = 0.1


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Offline  Re: Sonny Gray- Let's GO FOR IT! Here's a plan...
Posted: July 17, 2017, 7:28 AM Post
Posts: 161
MrTPlush said:
clancyphile said:
What about a package centering around Davies and Jungmann with Ray and Wren?

Give the A's two pitchers, a stopgap CF (Wren's stuck behind other players), and a CF prospect?


I think a package centered around Tim Dillard would suffice.


Well, he would instantly elevate the A's to one of the most interesting social media teams in the league! There has to be some value in that, right? Ha.

Yeah, I think we need to be more realistic in our prospect packages here, as Oakland would laugh Stearns right off the phone if we offered up a deal that included Davies and Jungmann as headliners (along with a struggling Corey Ray). Ray and another top prospect like Dubon, Burnes or Ortiz - maybe? But, Davies or Jungmann (especially Taylor) would be "throw-in's" to any deal.


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Offline  Re: Sonny Gray- Let's GO FOR IT! Here's a plan...
Posted: July 17, 2017, 7:53 AM Post
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Posts: 588
Good points madtownhawk.

In fact when I started this thread, I was hoping that we could get Gray with a package headlined by Corey Ray, with the 2nd and 3rd pieces being solid (Dubon and Clark).

And the majority of posters thought that it was an INSANE amount to give up for him.

But now that the market has been set with the Quintana trade somewhat, I don't think there's a snowballs chance in hell that Oakland would accept that offer.


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Offline  Re: Sonny Gray- Let's GO FOR IT! Here's a plan...
Posted: July 17, 2017, 7:57 AM Post
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Posts: 321
I'm no expert on current values, but would it be possible to swap Gray for Santana? A's need OF's and he has enough control left to make him valuable. We could plug in Brinson, Phillips in RF and not lose a whole lot in offense. This way we could get our starter and not have to give up a ton of prospects hopefully and wreck the rebuild. I have to admit I like Santana a lot as he's only 24 so he could definitely be argued to be a part of the next playoff team. This might be a compromise between those who want a starter and those who don't want to give up "prospects".


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Offline  Re: Sonny Gray- Let's GO FOR IT! Here's a plan...
Posted: July 17, 2017, 8:21 AM Post
Posts: 426
Location: Madison, WI
.294/.387/.505/.892. No way would I be subtracting that from the lineup.


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Offline  Re: Sonny Gray- Let's GO FOR IT! Here's a plan...
Posted: July 17, 2017, 8:29 AM Post
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Posts: 588
I agree with the poster above.

A bird in the hand...

Brinson has .854 OPS in over 2000 minor league abs

Santana has an OPS of .892 this season at the major league level.

As much as I love Brinson, It would be quite the gamble banking on Brinson being as good as Santana at this point.

That's a risk a contending team can't usually afford to make.


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Offline  Re: Sonny Gray- Let's GO FOR IT! Here's a plan...
Posted: July 17, 2017, 8:56 AM Post
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Posts: 899
JosephC said:
.294/.387/.505/.892. No way would I be subtracting that from the lineup.


Agreed. If they are choosing to "go for it" then I wouldn't subtract anybody from what they've constructed with their roster of position players. That is what makes them a potentially special team. They just need more pitching. I could accept giving up Brinson for Gray. If you offer him up that should put you in every conversation vs another teams offer. What I don't want is an over pay for a good but not great pitcher.

Brinson + Dubon/Diaz+ Peralta? or some other lesser 3rd piece is as far as I'd go. If that gets beat then move on. I'd be curious to find out if Brinson was on the table in the Quintana talks. If he was I'd have to believe that DS wasn't willing to include another significant piece to push it in the Brewers favor. If he wouldn't cave for Quintana I wouldn't expect an overpay for Gray.


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Offline  Re: Sonny Gray- Let's GO FOR IT! Here's a plan...
Posted: July 17, 2017, 9:04 AM Post
Posts: 180
I've mentioned in a couple of threads that I think Santana is someone we should explore the trade market for, as I believe he's more valuable to an AL team with limited outfield options than he is for us, an NL team with a lot of outfield prospects and depth. But even with that view, I don't think it's the right move to make at this trade deadline. I simply don't see the market for a bat-first outfielder/DH being all that great at the moment. It's something to explore in the offseason, where I think the market could be better. And while I think Brinson and perhaps even Phillips will, over their respective remaining team control, be more valuable than Santana, they won't be more valuable this season. Even with the significant defensive upgrade. They'll need time to adapt.

If anything what I'd prefer is an indirect trade of Santana for Gray. Meaning we trade prospects for Gray now, and trade Santana for prospects in the offseason. Where Santanas value is likely higher (esp if he keeps playing like he has and stays healthy), and where we'd have more (I would imagine) potential trade partners, and thus can also find the type of prospects we like.

I'd be curious to find out if Brinson was on the table in the Quintana talks. If he was I'd have to believe that DS wasn't willing to include another significant piece to push it in the Brewers favor. If he wouldn't cave for Quintana I wouldn't expect an overpay for Gray.


I'd also be curious to find that out, though I expect we never will. My guess is that he wasn't. If he was, I don't think there would've been much trouble putting together the rest of the deal. Jimenez and Cease are highly rated prospects, but both quite far removed from the majors. Brinson is much closer, as are any of our major pitching prospects (Burnes, Hader, Ortiz, Woodruff) which makes them less risky than Cease. And I'd imagine as the 3rd/4th pieces of the deal we could include better prospects than the Cubs did, without touching our top 10-15 guys. As you say though, it could be that the secondary piece was someone DS absolutely did not want to give up, but I don't think that is as likely.


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Offline  Re: Sonny Gray- Let's GO FOR IT! Here's a plan...
Posted: July 17, 2017, 9:19 AM Post
Posts: 14
Lathund said:
I've mentioned in a couple of threads that I think Santana is someone we should explore the trade market for, as I believe he's more valuable to an AL team with limited outfield options than he is for us, an NL team with a lot of outfield prospects and depth. But even with that view, I don't think it's the right move to make at this trade deadline. I simply don't see the market for a bat-first outfielder/DH being all that great at the moment. It's something to explore in the offseason, where I think the market could be better. And while I think Brinson and perhaps even Phillips will, over their respective remaining team control, be more valuable than Santana, they won't be more valuable this season. Even with the significant defensive upgrade. They'll need time to adapt.

If anything what I'd prefer is an indirect trade of Santana for Gray. Meaning we trade prospects for Gray now, and trade Santana for prospects in the offseason. Where Santanas value is likely higher (esp if he keeps playing like he has and stays healthy), and where we'd have more (I would imagine) potential trade partners, and thus can also find the type of prospects we like.


If this team is as close to competing as it apparently is, why trade Santana at all? He is literally exactly what you are looking for on a competitive/rebuilding team: young, improving, controlled. He's locked up until after 2021. I know we are OF rich, but why take the gamble on Phillips or Brinson when you know what Santana's floor is and he hasn't reached his prime/potential yet? I think Broxton makes much more sense to replace than Santana.

Just seems like an unnecessary risk to trade what you know you have for a SP and then move in a prospect where you don't 100% know what you have, when you could just move the prospect plus a few lower pieces and keep the proven guy. I much rather trade Ray/Ortiz/+ for Gray or if it came down to it Brinson/+ than explore something with Santana at this current moment.


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Offline  Re: Sonny Gray- Let's GO FOR IT! Here's a plan...
Posted: July 17, 2017, 9:36 AM Post
Posts: 251
iKezims said:
Lathund said:
I've mentioned in a couple of threads that I think Santana is someone we should explore the trade market for, as I believe he's more valuable to an AL team with limited outfield options than he is for us, an NL team with a lot of outfield prospects and depth. But even with that view, I don't think it's the right move to make at this trade deadline. I simply don't see the market for a bat-first outfielder/DH being all that great at the moment. It's something to explore in the offseason, where I think the market could be better. And while I think Brinson and perhaps even Phillips will, over their respective remaining team control, be more valuable than Santana, they won't be more valuable this season. Even with the significant defensive upgrade. They'll need time to adapt.

If anything what I'd prefer is an indirect trade of Santana for Gray. Meaning we trade prospects for Gray now, and trade Santana for prospects in the offseason. Where Santanas value is likely higher (esp if he keeps playing like he has and stays healthy), and where we'd have more (I would imagine) potential trade partners, and thus can also find the type of prospects we like.


If this team is as close to competing as it apparently is, why trade Santana at all? He is literally exactly what you are looking for on a competitive/rebuilding team: young, improving, controlled. He's locked up until after 2021. I know we are OF rich, but why take the gamble on Phillips or Brinson when you know what Santana's floor is and he hasn't reached his prime/potential yet? I think Broxton makes much more sense to replace than Santana.

Just seems like an unnecessary risk to trade what you know you have for a SP and then move in a prospect where you don't 100% know what you have, when you could just move the prospect plus a few lower pieces and keep the proven guy. I much rather trade Ray/Ortiz/+ for Gray or if it came down to it Brinson/+ than explore something with Santana at this current moment.



100% agree - You have a a guy that is just sniffing his potential.


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Offline  Re: Sonny Gray- Let's GO FOR IT! Here's a plan...
Posted: July 17, 2017, 9:47 AM Post
Posts: 161
With the immense OF depth in our system right now, I did briefly consider the idea of trading Santana - as we are eventually going to need to trade one or more of these guys heading into next season. However, I just don't think you can trade Santana right now as you are in the middle of a pennant race. Even if you use him as the major piece to get a guy like Sonny Gray in return, what type of message does that send to the fan base that you are going out and trading away one of your biggest and hottest bats? And I don't think there is anyway that a Phillips/Brinson platoon the last few months of the season is going to give you anywhere near what Santana would.

As I stated though - we are going to need to trade 1 or 2 of these guys by next season as there is going to be no reason you'd want to send Brinson back to AAA for another year, and Phillips and Cordell have also proven about as much as they need to in AAA this year.

Best case scenario is that Broxton gets his season turned around a bit and finds more consistency in the 2nd half, and then we move him in the offseason. However, I highly doubt that he finds that consistency that we are hoping for.


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Online  Re: Sonny Gray- Let's GO FOR IT! Here's a plan...
Posted: July 17, 2017, 9:49 AM Post
Posts: 183
Broxton needs to be platooned. He is undisciplined and too streaky.


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Offline  Re: Sonny Gray- Let's GO FOR IT! Here's a plan...
Posted: July 17, 2017, 9:49 AM Post
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Posts: 16
Location: Chicago
Two points to consider:

1.) When is the last time Billy Beane made a good trade?

He just gave away his two best relief pitchers, both of whom were under contract for multiple seasons, and received Trienen (a player he already traded away once before) and two A-ball prospects neither of whom were amongst the National's top tier. The last trade he clearly won would have been trading Ben Zobrist's expiring contract to KC for Sean Manaea back in 2015. Therefore, it is certainly possible Beane will accept a package of lesser players for Sonny Gray, because that's the kind of track record he has.

2.) If the Cubs gave up two prospects who collectively were ranked within the Top 100 in the game in order to acquire Quintana with three years of control. The "price" for Sonny Gray will be considerably less. He has less team control than Quintana, he is physically smaller than Quintana and has injury concerns. While it only takes on team to give up a king's ransom, I believe it would be possible for Milwaukee to acquire him without giving up a combination of: Brinson, Hader, Ortiz, Diaz, etc.


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Offline  Re: Sonny Gray- Let's GO FOR IT! Here's a plan...
Posted: July 17, 2017, 9:59 AM Post
Posts: 180
iKezims said:
Lathund said:
I've mentioned in a couple of threads that I think Santana is someone we should explore the trade market for, as I believe he's more valuable to an AL team with limited outfield options than he is for us, an NL team with a lot of outfield prospects and depth. But even with that view, I don't think it's the right move to make at this trade deadline. I simply don't see the market for a bat-first outfielder/DH being all that great at the moment. It's something to explore in the offseason, where I think the market could be better. And while I think Brinson and perhaps even Phillips will, over their respective remaining team control, be more valuable than Santana, they won't be more valuable this season. Even with the significant defensive upgrade. They'll need time to adapt.

If anything what I'd prefer is an indirect trade of Santana for Gray. Meaning we trade prospects for Gray now, and trade Santana for prospects in the offseason. Where Santanas value is likely higher (esp if he keeps playing like he has and stays healthy), and where we'd have more (I would imagine) potential trade partners, and thus can also find the type of prospects we like.


If this team is as close to competing as it apparently is, why trade Santana at all? He is literally exactly what you are looking for on a competitive/rebuilding team: young, improving, controlled. He's locked up until after 2021. I know we are OF rich, but why take the gamble on Phillips or Brinson when you know what Santana's floor is and he hasn't reached his prime/potential yet? I think Broxton makes much more sense to replace than Santana.

Just seems like an unnecessary risk to trade what you know you have for a SP and then move in a prospect where you don't 100% know what you have, when you could just move the prospect plus a few lower pieces and keep the proven guy. I much rather trade Ray/Ortiz/+ for Gray or if it came down to it Brinson/+ than explore something with Santana at this current moment.


Why not Broxton? Because we won't get much at all in return. I'm not actively trying to get rid of Santana, but looking at the outfield logjam we have coming up I simply feel that he's the one outfielder we have that other teams would overpay for. Anyone else we trade, we'd be trading away at a discount. I look at what we lose at a position of strength, vs what we could get at a position of need. Yes it's a risk, but I believe 6 years of Brinson will be of more value than 4 years of Santana.

Anyway, I know I'm firmly in the minority in my position on deals of this kind, and that's fine. It comes from the belief that in general the premium you pay for "certainty" in established big leaguers is too high. You take on significant risk with betting on multiple prospects instead of that one proven player, but not enough risk to justify their low trade value.

This thread is about Gray though, so we should stick to that. I brought this up in relation to someone who suggested including Santana in the Gray deal at this trade deadline, which I am against as it weakens us too much over the rest of the season. I agreed with him in the more long term though, that a Santana trade could be a net positive.


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