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Trade Targets- Starting Pitchers

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Offline  Re: Trade Targets- Starting Pitchers
#21

Posted: July 10, 2017, 9:05 PM Post
Posts: 199
jerichoholicninja said:
SRB said:
Samardzija is a major buy low if we could get him in large part as a salary dump. 4.58 ERA this season but his peripherals are very strong. Given our payroll this season and next, I'd prefer a salary dump guy rather than giving away prospects.


He shouldn't be a buy low. Everything except for ERA is great. The Giants don't seem to be on the cutting edge of anything so maybe he'll come cheap though.


And the Giants need to restock that farm system. Besides Christian Arroyo they have next to nothing at middle infield depth. Possibly a combo of Isan Diaz, Lara, Trent Clark and eating a chunk of Samardzija salary.

I also like the idea of a veteran pitcher over a real young guy if the playoffs are in the Brewer's forecast.


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Offline  Re: Trade Targets- Starting Pitchers
#22

Posted: July 10, 2017, 9:08 PM Post
Posts: 5520
Samardzija for Braun. That was easy.


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Offline  Re: Trade Targets- Starting Pitchers
#23

Posted: July 10, 2017, 9:15 PM Post
Posts: 26
Location: Beaver Dam WI
Yeah! And what FVBrewerfan said! LOL


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Offline  Re: Trade Targets- Starting Pitchers
#24

Posted: July 11, 2017, 12:07 AM Post
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Posts: 551
jerichoholicninja said:
SRB said:
Samardzija is a major buy low if we could get him in large part as a salary dump. 4.58 ERA this season but his peripherals are very strong. Given our payroll this season and next, I'd prefer a salary dump guy rather than giving away prospects.


He shouldn't be a buy low. Everything except for ERA is great. The Giants don't seem to be on the cutting edge of anything so maybe he'll come cheap though.


The Giants are only on the cutting edge of nailing their 1st round pick every year.

That and winning World Series' lol


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Offline  Re: Trade Targets- Starting Pitchers
#25

Posted: July 11, 2017, 2:03 AM Post
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jerichoholicninja said:
SRB said:
Samardzija is a major buy low if we could get him in large part as a salary dump. 4.58 ERA this season but his peripherals are very strong. Given our payroll this season and next, I'd prefer a salary dump guy rather than giving away prospects.


He shouldn't be a buy low. Everything except for ERA is great. The Giants don't seem to be on the cutting edge of anything so maybe he'll come cheap though.

Giants are a hard team to read. Tough to know just how much they are willing to sell and what they'd want for a guy like Samardzija if he was made available.


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Offline  Re: Trade Targets- Starting Pitchers
#26

Posted: July 11, 2017, 7:49 AM Post
Posts: 1057
brewmann04 said:
I have always wondered why DS has added all the Outfielders as well as Middle Infielders maybe this was part of his plan?



Guys up the middle (C SS and CF) hold more value in trade talks. Plain and simple. He creates value.


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Online  Re: Trade Targets- Starting Pitchers
#27

Posted: July 11, 2017, 8:35 AM Post
Posts: 357
Location: Madison, WI
Humans Need Water said:
Why do you believe the Brewers need a SP at this deadline?


Anderson is currently on the DL. Is expected back early in August but who knows if he'll really be back then? And if he is back, how effective will he be?

The #1 insurance option, Brandon Woodruff, is currently on the DL and hasn't pitched in a game in over a month.

Junior Guerra is on the DL but is not expected to be on there for long. But he was coming off three bad starts in a row and had an ERA over 6 in June/July.

Matt Garza is up and down. Suspect that will continue through the rest of his career. That's just where he is at. However, in the three years prior to this one he averaged 23.6 starts per season so while he's not a major injury risk, he's not known for his durability either.

The sample size on Suter isn't large enough to draw any conclusion.

Davies could be the second most reliable starter the Brewers have right now, and he is in the midst of a 4.90 ERA, 1.46 WHIP season.

I'd prioritize starting pitching and there is no way I wouldn't add one prior to July 31. Just too many possible depth issues for me to ignore. Personally, I'd troll the bottom of the market for someone like Estrada or Liriano to serve mostly as insurance the rest of this year. The cost for a pitcher like this would be pretty minimal. If he turned out to be the hot hand it could be a steal situation. If he struggles...well the cost was minimal and hopefully the rest of the starters could pick up the slack. I know Stearns has said the opposite, but I'm perfectly fine with grabbing a 2.5 month rental. That way the Brewers wouldn't have to worry about fitting him in with Anderson/Nelson/Davies/Garza/Woodruff/Guerra (and possibly Hader and Ortiz depending on how the Brewers choose to use) in 2018, and obviously the price-tag would be a lot less.

Starter for depth/insurance is priority #1 and adding a reliever would be priority #2. I would probably spend more for a reliever and get the best one I could get as long as it doesn't enter into Will Smith price-tag type insanity. I'd hope to fill these two roster spots with some combination of the following prospects : Marcos Diplan, Cody Ponce, Ryan Cordell and if the reliever was good enough might consider Trent Clark. Considering I would be trolling the bottom of the starting pitching market I think that would be achievable. But starter has to be first because I think the Brewers really need to add one. If the relievers command real high prices I could live without adding another. Hughes and Drake have both been really good in June/July.


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Offline  Re: Trade Targets- Starting Pitchers
#28

Posted: July 11, 2017, 10:06 AM Post
Posts: 199
I would also throw Marcus Stroman in the mix as well. And personally, my favorite of the trade candidates assuming Toronto makes him available.


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Online  Re: Trade Targets- Starting Pitchers
#29

Posted: July 11, 2017, 11:35 AM Post
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Posts: 9862
A Swing and A Drive said:

The Giants are only on the cutting edge of nailing their 1st round pick every year.

That and winning World Series' lol


They are cutting edge in getting hot at the right time. 2 of the 3 world series teams weren't very good.

Also their first round picks have been more bad than good. They have hit really hard a couple of times but for the most part this isn't a strength.


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Online  Re: Trade Targets- Starting Pitchers
#30

Posted: July 11, 2017, 12:48 PM Post
Posts: 148
Location: Milwaukee
JosephC said:
Humans Need Water said:
Why do you believe the Brewers need a SP at this deadline?


Anderson is currently on the DL. Is expected back early in August but who knows if he'll really be back then? And if he is back, how effective will he be?

The #1 insurance option, Brandon Woodruff, is currently on the DL and hasn't pitched in a game in over a month.

Junior Guerra is on the DL but is not expected to be on there for long. But he was coming off three bad starts in a row and had an ERA over 6 in June/July.

Matt Garza is up and down. Suspect that will continue through the rest of his career. That's just where he is at. However, in the three years prior to this one he averaged 23.6 starts per season so while he's not a major injury risk, he's not known for his durability either.

The sample size on Suter isn't large enough to draw any conclusion.

Davies could be the second most reliable starter the Brewers have right now, and he is in the midst of a 4.90 ERA, 1.46 WHIP season.

I'd prioritize starting pitching and there is no way I wouldn't add one prior to July 31. Just too many possible depth issues for me to ignore. Personally, I'd troll the bottom of the market for someone like Estrada or Liriano to serve mostly as insurance the rest of this year. The cost for a pitcher like this would be pretty minimal. If he turned out to be the hot hand it could be a steal situation. If he struggles...well the cost was minimal and hopefully the rest of the starters could pick up the slack. I know Stearns has said the opposite, but I'm perfectly fine with grabbing a 2.5 month rental. That way the Brewers wouldn't have to worry about fitting him in with Anderson/Nelson/Davies/Garza/Woodruff/Guerra (and possibly Hader and Ortiz depending on how the Brewers choose to use) in 2018, and obviously the price-tag would be a lot less.

Starter for depth/insurance is priority #1 and adding a reliever would be priority #2. I would probably spend more for a reliever and get the best one I could get as long as it doesn't enter into Will Smith price-tag type insanity. I'd hope to fill these two roster spots with some combination of the following prospects : Marcos Diplan, Cody Ponce, Ryan Cordell and if the reliever was good enough might consider Trent Clark. Considering I would be trolling the bottom of the starting pitching market I think that would be achievable. But starter has to be first because I think the Brewers really need to add one. If the relievers command real high prices I could live without adding another. Hughes and Drake have both been really good in June/July.

This logic I can get on board with. I probably should have asked why do people believe we need a "high level pitcher" in the mold of Quintana, Gray, Stroman. Especially if they do require (Gray shouldn't though) parting with Brinson + Hader/Woodruff + Phillips (or Burnes potentially).

I'd much rather see a Braun, Brinson, Santana, Phillips OF with Hader, Woodruff, Ortiz, Burnes, Davies rotation in 2018/2019 then use the next wave of top prospects to fetch this high level rotation arm (Bickford, Hiura, Diaz, Erceg, Ray, Clark, Peralta, Nottingham - these are just the one's currently in the system as we'll have more coming via the next 2 drafts and will eventually trade several rotation arms, Broxton, Villar, Perez and potentially Thames, etc).

As opposed to seeing Braun, Phillips, Santana, Broxton OF with (high level pitcher), Woodruff, Ortiz, Davies, Nelson/Chase
OR seeing Braun, Broxton, Santana, Cordell OF with (high level pitcher), Woodruff, Ortiz, Burnes, Davies then trading the same players as above.

Option 1 keeps everyone (strong starting and depth) then adds the high level arm. Option 2 costs us Brinson (+ maybe Phillips) + 1-2 of the top 4 arms (6yrs control) and gives us 3yrs of a #2. I fail to see how Option 2 is better. This is why I also think adding a decent insurance arm/rental is the best option assuming both Chase/Woodruff aren't back by the end of July. I'd add 1 solid pen arm for sure. In Sept we can bring up whoever we need to the pen as well, including starters.


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Offline  Re: Trade Targets- Starting Pitchers
#31

Posted: July 11, 2017, 2:17 PM Post
Posts: 115
Humans Need Water said:
JosephC said:
Humans Need Water said:
Why do you believe the Brewers need a SP at this deadline?


Anderson is currently on the DL. Is expected back early in August but who knows if he'll really be back then? And if he is back, how effective will he be?

The #1 insurance option, Brandon Woodruff, is currently on the DL and hasn't pitched in a game in over a month.

Junior Guerra is on the DL but is not expected to be on there for long. But he was coming off three bad starts in a row and had an ERA over 6 in June/July.

Matt Garza is up and down. Suspect that will continue through the rest of his career. That's just where he is at. However, in the three years prior to this one he averaged 23.6 starts per season so while he's not a major injury risk, he's not known for his durability either.

The sample size on Suter isn't large enough to draw any conclusion.

Davies could be the second most reliable starter the Brewers have right now, and he is in the midst of a 4.90 ERA, 1.46 WHIP season.

I'd prioritize starting pitching and there is no way I wouldn't add one prior to July 31. Just too many possible depth issues for me to ignore. Personally, I'd troll the bottom of the market for someone like Estrada or Liriano to serve mostly as insurance the rest of this year. The cost for a pitcher like this would be pretty minimal. If he turned out to be the hot hand it could be a steal situation. If he struggles...well the cost was minimal and hopefully the rest of the starters could pick up the slack. I know Stearns has said the opposite, but I'm perfectly fine with grabbing a 2.5 month rental. That way the Brewers wouldn't have to worry about fitting him in with Anderson/Nelson/Davies/Garza/Woodruff/Guerra (and possibly Hader and Ortiz depending on how the Brewers choose to use) in 2018, and obviously the price-tag would be a lot less.

Starter for depth/insurance is priority #1 and adding a reliever would be priority #2. I would probably spend more for a reliever and get the best one I could get as long as it doesn't enter into Will Smith price-tag type insanity. I'd hope to fill these two roster spots with some combination of the following prospects : Marcos Diplan, Cody Ponce, Ryan Cordell and if the reliever was good enough might consider Trent Clark. Considering I would be trolling the bottom of the starting pitching market I think that would be achievable. But starter has to be first because I think the Brewers really need to add one. If the relievers command real high prices I could live without adding another. Hughes and Drake have both been really good in June/July.

This logic I can get on board with. I probably should have asked why do people believe we need a "high level pitcher" in the mold of Quintana, Gray, Stroman. Especially if they do require (Gray shouldn't though) parting with Brinson + Hader/Woodruff + Phillips (or Burnes potentially).

I'd much rather see a Braun, Brinson, Santana, Phillips OF with Hader, Woodruff, Ortiz, Burnes, Davies rotation in 2018/2019 then use the next wave of top prospects to fetch this high level rotation arm (Bickford, Hiura, Diaz, Erceg, Ray, Clark, Peralta, Nottingham - these are just the one's currently in the system as we'll have more coming via the next 2 drafts and will eventually trade several rotation arms, Broxton, Villar, Perez and potentially Thames, etc).

As opposed to seeing Braun, Phillips, Santana, Broxton OF with (high level pitcher), Woodruff, Ortiz, Davies, Nelson/Chase
OR seeing Braun, Broxton, Santana, Cordell OF with (high level pitcher), Woodruff, Ortiz, Burnes, Davies then trading the same players as above.

Option 1 keeps everyone (strong starting and depth) then adds the high level arm. Option 2 costs us Brinson (+ maybe Phillips) + 1-2 of the top 4 arms (6yrs control) and gives us 3yrs of a #2. I fail to see how Option 2 is better. This is why I also think adding a decent insurance arm/rental is the best option assuming both Chase/Woodruff aren't back by the end of July. I'd add 1 solid pen arm for sure. In Sept we can bring up whoever we need to the pen as well, including starters.


I'll climb on board as well.

Consider what a #2 type of pitcher would give us for the rest of the season compared to a #3-#4 type who would otherwise take those starts. 1 WAR? Which correlates reasonably well with actual extra wins. Compare that to what production we'd get from even the floor of Hader/Brinson/Phillips going forward.

It's a sellers market, and the White Sox and A's know it. If the asking price doesn't make sense, if the price is greater than the value, we move on. I'd rather see a smaller improvement but at a good price.


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Offline  Re: Trade Targets- Starting Pitchers
#32

Posted: July 11, 2017, 7:54 PM Post
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Per Fangraphs, Quintana has the 7th highest WAR in baseball from 2013 to 2016. He's had a huge spike in HR this year, so I'd hope the Brewers would look into this before making a move, but I think some posters are being a little rough on him. He's a good pitcher.

"The most successful (people) know that performance over the long haul is what counts. If you can seize the day, great. But never forget that there are days yet to come."

~Bill Walsh


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Offline  Re: Trade Targets- Starting Pitchers
#33

Posted: July 11, 2017, 8:05 PM Post
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monty57 said:
Per Fangraphs, Quintana has the 7th highest WAR in baseball from 2013 to 2016. He's had a huge spike in HR this year, so I'd hope the Brewers would look into this before making a move, but I think some posters are being a little rough on him. He's a good pitcher.


He's an excellent pitcher, just not elite .... and hasn't the whole world had a HR spike this season?


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Offline  Re: Trade Targets- Starting Pitchers
#34

Posted: July 11, 2017, 10:41 PM Post
Posts: 1323
splitterpfj said:
monty57 said:
Per Fangraphs, Quintana has the 7th highest WAR in baseball from 2013 to 2016. He's had a huge spike in HR this year, so I'd hope the Brewers would look into this before making a move, but I think some posters are being a little rough on him. He's a good pitcher.


He's an excellent pitcher, just not elite .... and hasn't the whole world had a HR spike this season?


Trading away system for an SP, should make it an Ace. CC & Greinke, those guys were aces. You knew you would most likely win every time they stepped on mound. Guys we are targeting in my eyes don't give you that. Very good pitchers but not sold on them being the kind of pitcher we really need on this team.

I'm against buying & selling off system unless we are getting a game changer. So one to be excited about. I want elite otherwise try to find Marcum type trades that won't break bank.


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Offline  Re: Trade Targets- Starting Pitchers
#35

Posted: July 12, 2017, 5:40 AM Post
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Again, the only pitchers (per Fangraphs WAR) who have been better than Quintana since his first full season in 2013 are Kershaw, Kluber, Scherzer, Sale, and Price. He's tied with Lester.

He's been better than Bumgarner, Arrieta, Greinke, Archer, Strasburg, Verlander, Wainwright, Hernandez, Hamels, Keuchel, etc.

His 4.5 seasons (20.1 WAR) are better than the Greinke's five seasons (18.4 WAR) prior to our trading for him, and a little under Sabathia's 2003-2007 seasons (21.3 WAR but again five full seasons).

Please quantify what "elite" or "ace" means, because being one of the top 6-7 pitchers in baseball for your career would seem to qualify.


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Offline  Re: Trade Targets- Starting Pitchers
#36

Posted: July 12, 2017, 5:46 AM Post
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Note that I'm not a huge fan of making a trade right now, and would be fine if we stand pat. I just realize that we have an over-abundance of outfielders, and would consider trading from that depth to get a top-of-the-rotation starter who is controlled for 3.5 more seasons.

We'd have him for the run this year, and at some point in the future will be able to trade him away to recoup much of the prospect capital we paid to get him.


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Online  Re: Trade Targets- Starting Pitchers
#37

Posted: July 12, 2017, 6:18 AM Post
Posts: 357
Location: Madison, WI
YoungGeezy1 said:
splitterpfj said:
monty57 said:
Per Fangraphs, Quintana has the 7th highest WAR in baseball from 2013 to 2016. He's had a huge spike in HR this year, so I'd hope the Brewers would look into this before making a move, but I think some posters are being a little rough on him. He's a good pitcher.


He's an excellent pitcher, just not elite .... and hasn't the whole world had a HR spike this season?


Trading away system for an SP, should make it an Ace. CC & Greinke, those guys were aces. You knew you would most likely win every time they stepped on mound. Guys we are targeting in my eyes don't give you that. Very good pitchers but not sold on them being the kind of pitcher we really need on this team.

I'm against buying & selling off system unless we are getting a game changer. So one to be excited about. I want elite otherwise try to find Marcum type trades that won't break bank.


I agree that Quintana isn't as good as a pitcher like Sabathia when the Brewers made that trade. But IMO Quintana has more value now than Sabathia had then. Sabathia was a virtual lock to leave the team after the season, whereas in this case the Brewers would control Quintana for 3 more seasons.

2018 (age 29 season) = 8.85 million
2019 (age 30 season) = 10.5 million (1 million buyout)
2020 (age 31 season) = 10.5 million (1 million buyout)

So the Brewers would control him through what are considered prime years at a salary that is very affordable for a small-market team. If a catastrophic injury were to occur the Brewers could buyout the deal for a very small cost. For a small market team trading away three of four key pieces of their future, it would make more sense to do it for Quintana now rather than Sabathia or Greinke when those trades were made. Maybe not an elite level pitcher, but when looking at the big picture I see him as being even more attractive.


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Offline  Re: Trade Targets- Starting Pitchers
#38

Posted: July 12, 2017, 7:52 AM Post
Posts: 10459
Cubs were reportedly asking Detroit about Michael Fulmer and were willing to part with Schwarber. Now Tigers are said to be searching for their CF of the future and rejected the Cubs. If Fulmer were available, the asking price would be enormous, but Brewers have the CF in Brinson that might interest the Tigers but don't think him alone gets it done. Question is what else would they want? Davies? Woodruff?


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Offline  Re: Trade Targets- Starting Pitchers
#39

Posted: July 12, 2017, 7:56 AM Post
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I believe Fulmer will be ARB eligible through 2021.

Not only is he better than Quintana but he's controlled an extra year.

I think the asking price would be enormous and one stearns would be be willing to pay I'm certain.

Probably Brinson, Hader, Woodruff and Dubon.


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Offline  Re: Trade Targets- Starting Pitchers
#40

Posted: July 12, 2017, 8:02 AM Post
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Posts: 551
Humans Need Water said:
Why do you believe the Brewers need a SP at this deadline?


Because in my mind Brent Suter is as good as Clayton Kershaw, but just in case reality says otherwise it could be a good idea.


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