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Madison Bumgarner???

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Offline  Madison Bumgarner???
#1

Posted: July 11, 2017, 10:33 AM Post
Posts: 2218
Let me preface this by stating that I highly doubt the Giants would be interested in trading him, but wanted to discuss this anyway.

Bumgarner is just coming back from his dirt bike injury and is rehabbing in effort to rejoin the Giants MLB club after the AS break. His current contract has him under team control at about 12 million per season through the 2019 season, at which time he becomes a FA.

Say he comes back for a few starts and proves to be healthy and reasonably effective, even though he is still building his arm strength back up...what do people think it would take to pry this guy away from the Giants via trade, and would it be worth the gamble to acquire a bonafide ace under a friendly contract for the stretch run/postseason, and the next two years?

I'm not sure if I've missed an article or statement from the Giants that they're just not interested in trading him away, but their organization needs a retooling that frankly will take more than 1-2 seasons for them to compete in their division...I personally think he'd look pretty good pitching for the Crew come August 1st, even if it means dealing some significant prospects. This wouldn't just be a rental, either.


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Offline  Re: Madison Bumgarner???
#2

Posted: July 11, 2017, 11:21 AM Post
Posts: 100
I feel like this is an entirely hypothetical discussion. I think they keep him even if they choose to rebuild/retool, and look to try to extend him. He'll only be 30 when his current contract expires after all, plenty of time to be part of their next contending team. Now, the only way I see them trading him is if he has made it clear he's not going to resign with them under any circumstances. But yeah, in the unlikely event that they're open to trading him I think we should be all over it. I am skeptical about giving up the farm for Quintana/Gray, but for Bumgarner I would be more inclined to do it. Excellent stats, remarkably consistent and (Dirtbikes aside...) very durable. Also, I like pitcher who can hit.

I would imagine that the Chris Sale deal is a decent comparison for what it would take in the unlikely event Bum comes on the market; He was traded with 3 years and 36 million (With team options for the last two years) remaining, and is 1 year younger than Bumgarner. Their ERA, FIP, WHIP are very similar, with a slight edge for Sale. Boston gave up their #2 (Moncada), #4 (Kopech) and #8 (Basabe) picks, plus a top 30 lower minors arm. On BA's midseason list Moncada is #1 in all of baseball, and Kopech is #20; Brinson for comparison is #16. So I'd say any deal would have to start with Brinson, Hader/Ortiz and then yet another of our top 6-7 prospects.


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Offline  Re: Madison Bumgarner???
#3

Posted: July 11, 2017, 11:27 AM Post
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I would have to say that MadBum is 100% not available.

Even if he was, the Brewers would not have the type of player(s) in their system to headline a deal to acquire him.


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Offline  Re: Madison Bumgarner???
#4

Posted: July 11, 2017, 11:34 AM Post
Posts: 8872
I would never say any player is 100% not available, but i think you'd have to start the bidding at Brinson, Woodruff, Hader, and a young MLB talent like Santana just to get them negotiating with you, and probably add more from there.


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Offline  Re: Madison Bumgarner???
#5

Posted: July 11, 2017, 12:29 PM Post
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A Swing and A Drive said:
I would have to say that MadBum is 100% not available.

Even if he was, the Brewers would not have the type of player(s) in their system to headline a deal to acquire him.


They do, but it would pretty much ruin the system. And I feel Bumgarner's close to going full on Verlander anyway. He's been ridden hard his career with long post season runs and those innings are going to catch up eventually. Maybe his bike accident and time off due to it bought him another year of effectiveness but I wouldn't expect many more years of ace level work from him.


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Offline  Re: Madison Bumgarner???
#6

Posted: July 11, 2017, 12:45 PM Post
Posts: 5656
Location: Kenosha, WI
jerichoholicninja said:
A Swing and A Drive said:
I would have to say that MadBum is 100% not available.

Even if he was, the Brewers would not have the type of player(s) in their system to headline a deal to acquire him.


They do, but it would pretty much ruin the system. And I feel Bumgarner's close to going full on Verlander anyway. He's been ridden hard his career with long post season runs and those innings are going to catch up eventually. Maybe his bike accident and time off due to it bought him another year of effectiveness but I wouldn't expect many more years of ace level work from him.


It wouldn't ruin the system. It would take a pretty notable slice out, but there is a ton of depth and some of that depth will replace the departed top 100 prospects within the next year. I wouldn't trade that much though. A bit risky in our current situation to be confident we can actually compete come the end of September.


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Offline  Re: Madison Bumgarner???
#7

Posted: July 11, 2017, 12:57 PM Post
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jerichoholicninja said:
A Swing and A Drive said:
I would have to say that MadBum is 100% not available.

Even if he was, the Brewers would not have the type of player(s) in their system to headline a deal to acquire him.


They do, but it would pretty much ruin the system. And I feel Bumgarner's close to going full on Verlander anyway. He's been ridden hard his career with long post season runs and those innings are going to catch up eventually. Maybe his bike accident and time off due to it bought him another year of effectiveness but I wouldn't expect many more years of ace level work from him.



They do not.

What player, in your opinion, could the Brewers offer as a headliner to a deal for Madison Bumgarner?

Brinson and Hader? Not a chance.

Arcia? Nope.

They aren't going to trade their franchise ace and postseason hero for about 8 solid regulars/prospects that we'd be able to offer.

They would be almost certainly looking for quality over quantity.

It may be a different story if they were starting a full rebuild, but I doubt that will happen anytime soon.


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Offline  Re: Madison Bumgarner???
#8

Posted: July 11, 2017, 1:04 PM Post
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Might as well ask for Posey too.


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Offline  Re: Madison Bumgarner???
#9

Posted: July 11, 2017, 1:10 PM Post
Posts: 1187
Fear The Chorizo said:
their organization needs a retooling that frankly will take more than 1-2 seasons for them to compete in their division..


I haven't studied the Giants roster or their minors - but you see what the Brewers have done and that is with a much more limited budget. The Giants could trade away anyone now that won't be helping them in 2019 and eat salary, gather prospects and pay to fill the holes still on the roster and come back with a vengeance pretty quickly. Besides aren't they an every other year team anyways?


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Offline  Re: Madison Bumgarner???
#10

Posted: July 11, 2017, 2:38 PM Post
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A Swing and A Drive said:
jerichoholicninja said:
A Swing and A Drive said:
I would have to say that MadBum is 100% not available.

Even if he was, the Brewers would not have the type of player(s) in their system to headline a deal to acquire him.


They do, but it would pretty much ruin the system. And I feel Bumgarner's close to going full on Verlander anyway. He's been ridden hard his career with long post season runs and those innings are going to catch up eventually. Maybe his bike accident and time off due to it bought him another year of effectiveness but I wouldn't expect many more years of ace level work from him.



They do not.

What player, in your opinion, could the Brewers offer as a headliner to a deal for Madison Bumgarner?

Brinson and Hader? Not a chance.

Arcia? Nope.

They aren't going to trade their franchise ace and postseason hero for about 8 solid regulars/prospects that we'd be able to offer.

They would be almost certainly looking for quality over quantity.

It may be a different story if they were starting a full rebuild, but I doubt that will happen anytime soon.


Any 1 player, no. But no way they can turn down 3 top 100 prospects. The only thing preventing them from making a trade would be emotions and fear of fan reaction.


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Offline  Re: Madison Bumgarner???
#11

Posted: July 11, 2017, 3:55 PM Post
Posts: 5435
Any 1 player, no. But no way they can turn down 3 top 100 prospects. The only thing preventing them from making a trade would be emotions and fear of fan reaction.


Agreed. The Giants absolutely should be looking for a big haul for Bum, Smazargjazaaga, and yes even Posey. But they won't, because that's just not done.

To be fair, they could make a couple adjustments and be in the hunt again next year, absolutely. But it feels like they're mire stuck in neutral than anything, and that's a bad place to be.


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Offline  Re: Madison Bumgarner???
#12

Posted: July 11, 2017, 6:10 PM Post
Posts: 328
Location: Madison, WI
I kind of agree that the Brewers wouldn't have the right pieces in the system for Bumgarner.

But I do think the Giants would go for a deal that included Arcia, Nelson, Brinson and one of the following: Hader/Woodruff/Ortiz.


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Offline  Re: Madison Bumgarner???
#13

Posted: July 11, 2017, 7:04 PM Post
Posts: 147
Location: Milwaukee
Arcia, Brinson, Hader/Woodruff is 3 MLB players right away with 5-6yrs control. Arcia, at this point, looks like a multi-year AS. Brinson has AS potential in CF. Hader/Woodruff will be good pitchers (Hader has AS potential if in pen). This is better than what Sale brought


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Offline  Re: Madison Bumgarner???
#14

Posted: July 12, 2017, 3:02 AM Post
Posts: 92
Humans Need Water said:
Arcia, Brinson, Hader/Woodruff is 3 MLB players right away with 5-6yrs control. Arcia, at this point, looks like a multi-year AS. Brinson has AS potential in CF. Hader/Woodruff will be good pitchers (Hader has AS potential if in pen). This is better than what Sale brought



Better than what Sale brought? I don't think many scouts would agree with that. Kopech has the stuff to be the best pitcher in the game in the future. He just does some stupid things and struggles with his command...but he absolutely dominated the AFL. Add that to the top prospect in all of baseball, middle of the order bat at a premium position and I don't think we have the quality to match that. Not that I think we need to because I think Sale is a better pitcher.


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Offline  Re: Madison Bumgarner???
#15

Posted: July 12, 2017, 6:24 AM Post
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Bumgarner is a once in a generational pitcher with a hall of fame starter kit resume.

No way can they turn down 3 Top 100 prospects??? Lol

Only 1 in 3 top 100 prospects make an impact in the Majors and less than 1 in 10 become stars

If the Giants agree to trade Madison for 3 players, Arcia would qualify as maybe the 3rd piece in the deal. Possibly Brinson.

The players that would fit the bill on the first two headliners, the Brewers simply don't own.


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Offline  Re: Madison Bumgarner???
#16

Posted: July 12, 2017, 10:46 PM Post
Posts: 147
Location: Milwaukee
OnTheBlack said:
Humans Need Water said:
Arcia, Brinson, Hader/Woodruff is 3 MLB players right away with 5-6yrs control. Arcia, at this point, looks like a multi-year AS. Brinson has AS potential in CF. Hader/Woodruff will be good pitchers (Hader has AS potential if in pen). This is better than what Sale brought



Better than what Sale brought? I don't think many scouts would agree with that. Kopech has the stuff to be the best pitcher in the game in the future. He just does some stupid things and struggles with his command...but he absolutely dominated the AFL. Add that to the top prospect in all of baseball, middle of the order bat at a premium position and I don't think we have the quality to match that. Not that I think we need to because I think Sale is a better pitcher.

Arcia is showing he has the potential to be an AS with the bat combined with his GG caliber defense at "the" premium position. He's already doing this in MLB (I think he was to #8 or so overall at one point). Brinson is a 5 tool CF with AS potential who is MLB ready (Top 15). Hader/Woodruff adds another potential #2-3 rotation arm who are both MLB ready (or Hader ends up long term in pen with AS potential).

Moncada is almost MLB ready and while his overall bat and power are better, Arcia will be no slouch in those categories, especially for a SS. Moncada is average at best in the field (might end up at 3b) but has a hose like Arcia. They're different style players so can only compare to a certain extent. Kopech has great stuff but has seen his BB9 go from 3.7 to 5 to 6.1 (this year in AA) over the past 3yrs. Hader was same age/level and improved to 3. The 3rd guy is a CF with (4) 55-60 evenly split tools but his bat is a big question mark. If he doesn't hit he's a backup at best and he's in A+. 4th guy throws hard, is 23 in A+ with big command issues. He's done nothing impressive to this point.

is what Sale brought really better?


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Offline  Re: Madison Bumgarner???
#17

Posted: July 12, 2017, 10:56 PM Post
Posts: 147
Location: Milwaukee
A Swing and A Drive said:
Bumgarner is a once in a generational pitcher with a hall of fame starter kit resume.

No way can they turn down 3 Top 100 prospects??? Lol

Only 1 in 3 top 100 prospects make an impact in the Majors and less than 1 in 10 become stars

If the Giants agree to trade Madison for 3 players, Arcia would qualify as maybe the 3rd piece in the deal. Possibly Brinson.

The players that would fit the bill on the first two headliners, the Brewers simply don't own.

Put Sale in the NL and his numbers across the board will rival Bumgarner. Bumgarner isn't even the best pitcher in his state


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Offline  Re: Madison Bumgarner???
#18

Posted: July 12, 2017, 11:36 PM Post
Posts: 3482
I'm sure the Giants could make a move on Bumgarner and completely fix their minors by doing so, but they won't since they can improve their minors by trading Shark and Cueto, maybe even Pence. Bumgarner will just stay on the team and keep on winning for the Giants another 2 years, and maybe gain a deal beyond his current contract.

As to what it'd take to get him. Gotta realize this is a 5WAR Starter with added WAR with his batting. For Peanuts. I'd think Bumgarner is in the Scherzer range of 7/210 if given a contract today. Arguably more.

Brinson, Woodruff, Ortiz, add Dubon and a ptbnl.

I don't think San Fran could really walk away from that offer....the ptbnl may actually be too much. They get 3 immediate needs filled in Brinson, Woodruff and Dubon and Ortiz went to High School just 200miles away from San Fran.


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Offline  Re: Madison Bumgarner???
#19

Posted: July 13, 2017, 2:55 PM Post
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The Giants would 100% walk away from that offer.

The White Sox nearly got that much for LHP Jose Quintana.

The price for Bumgarner would be considerably higher without a doubt.


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Offline  Re: Madison Bumgarner???
#20

Posted: July 13, 2017, 10:43 PM Post
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Roderick said:
Fear The Chorizo said:
their organization needs a retooling that frankly will take more than 1-2 seasons for them to compete in their division..


I haven't studied the Giants roster or their minors - but you see what the Brewers have done and that is with a much more limited budget. The Giants could trade away anyone now that won't be helping them in 2019 and eat salary, gather prospects and pay to fill the holes still on the roster and come back with a vengeance pretty quickly. Besides aren't they an every other year team anyways?


The Giants have 2 players on their roster who are worth anything good from a prospect standpoint. That roster is just awful at this point. Nobody wants Pence, they don't want Nunez, they don't want Belt or Panik or Crawford or Span right now. If you are lucky someone gives you something for Samardjia but not for Moore or Cain. It is pretty much Bumgarner, Posey and a bunch of garbage. That team got really bad really fast.


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