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Josh Harrison

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Offline  Josh Harrison
#1

Posted: August 07, 2017, 2:47 PM Post
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Posts: 2430
Location: California
https://www.brewcrewball.com/2017/8/7/16103690/milwaukee-brewers-should-consider-exploring-the-second-base-trade-market

Never really had thought of him as an option for the Brewers but would love to see him inserted at 2B. Doesn't strike out much and has a career line of .283/.322/.736 in 2300 ABs. Curious to see whether he would be claimed off of waivers given the contract (1 year left at $10.25m, team option in 2019 for $10.5m with a $1m buyout, team option in 2020 for $11.5m with a $500 buyout). For a minimum of only $11.25m guaranteed for 2018 with the buyout, Harrison would be a nice bridge to Dubon or Hiura. I would be very interested in acquiring him.


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Online  Re: Josh Harrison
#2

Posted: August 07, 2017, 3:48 PM Post
Posts: 507
Curious why Pittsburgh would want to deal him.
Personally - I don't think they want to....


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Offline  Re: Josh Harrison
#3

Posted: August 07, 2017, 7:00 PM Post
Posts: 971
Nutso idea...


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Offline  Re: Josh Harrison
#4

Posted: August 08, 2017, 6:45 AM Post
Posts: 470
Location: Madison, WI
Harrison would be super-expensive. His surplus value would be in the 45-50 million dollar range if he's projected at a 2.5 WAR player for each of the 2018-2020 seasons. The return for him should be higher than what the A's got for Sonny Gray. I'd say something like Luis Ortiz, Isan Diaz and Brett Phillips.


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Online  Re: Josh Harrison
#5

Posted: August 08, 2017, 7:23 AM Post
Posts: 6387
Location: Kenosha, WI
1. Not getting traded.

2. Definitely not getting traded to us.

3. He would cost a ton.

4. I would absolutely love to have his talent and versatility as would Stearns.

5. Not happening

6. I actually think it is a good target...so props to you for bringing it up here.


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Offline  Re: Josh Harrison
#6

Posted: August 08, 2017, 8:35 AM Post
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id love the move, but I agree not going to happen. doubt Pittsburgh would trade him and if they would it wouldn't be inside the division unless the price was HUGE.


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Offline  Re: Josh Harrison
#7

Posted: August 08, 2017, 8:42 AM Post
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JosephC said:
Harrison would be super-expensive. His surplus value would be in the 45-50 million dollar range if he's projected at a 2.5 WAR player for each of the 2018-2020 seasons. The return for him should be higher than what the A's got for Sonny Gray. I'd say something like Luis Ortiz, Isan Diaz and Brett Phillips.

Harrison's career line is almost identical to Hernan Perez's last two seasons, and Perez has as much versatility as Harrison.

Obviously Perez would not command that type of return in trade, and his salary is a fraction of Harrison's and Perez is under control through 2020.

Why would Harrison cost that much?


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Offline  Re: Josh Harrison
#8

Posted: August 08, 2017, 11:13 AM Post
Posts: 575
Location: New Berlin, WI
LouisEly said:
JosephC said:
Harrison would be super-expensive. His surplus value would be in the 45-50 million dollar range if he's projected at a 2.5 WAR player for each of the 2018-2020 seasons. The return for him should be higher than what the A's got for Sonny Gray. I'd say something like Luis Ortiz, Isan Diaz and Brett Phillips.

Harrison's career line is almost identical to Hernan Perez's last two seasons, and Perez has as much versatility as Harrison.

Obviously Perez would not command that type of return in trade, and his salary is a fraction of Harrison's and Perez is under control through 2020.

Why would Harrison cost that much?


Pittsburgh is clawing back into contention. They've played well since the break and are 4.5 out. They love Harrison over there. I seriously doubt they trade him, much less to a team they are currently contending with. Their roster is built to contend so they could probably use him next season as well.

That said, if they plummet in the standings over the next 2 weeks and do look to trade him, the cost on Harrison would not be anything resembling the cost for Gray. He's on probably a market value deal, and the reason Gray demanded what he did is primarily a sellers market. There are a number of solid 2b options available, so they don't exactly have the market cornered.


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Offline  Re: Josh Harrison
#9

Posted: August 08, 2017, 3:24 PM Post
Posts: 238
Location: Milwaukee
When Sogard was injured July 4, Villar took over from the 5th - 26th hitting 288. He's started 2 games since that stretch. There have been 11 games since then and Perez played 2b for 4 of them hitting 375.

The hole doesn't seem as black as people make it out to be. The offense overall will come back around, including increased production at 2b. If there's not a sizable upgrade for cheap there's no point in changing anything


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Offline  Re: Josh Harrison
#10

Posted: August 09, 2017, 7:49 AM Post
Posts: 470
Location: Madison, WI
Humans Need Water said:
Villar took over from the 5th - 26th hitting 288.


On the whole Villar had a July slash line at .217/.258/.265/.523.

August is still young but not much positive for second base so far (these include all August plate appearances, not just the ones taken as a second baseman):
Villar = .111/.111/.111/.222
Sogard = .000/.154/.000/.154
Perez = .280/.280/.400/.680

The 2B output for the year currently sits at .237/.304/.350/.654.

2B along with the OBP problems from the centerfield position have been the two biggest weak spots in the lineup.


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Offline  Re: Josh Harrison
#11

Posted: August 09, 2017, 7:56 AM Post
Posts: 470
Location: Madison, WI
LouisEly said:
JosephC said:
Harrison would be super-expensive. His surplus value would be in the 45-50 million dollar range if he's projected at a 2.5 WAR player for each of the 2018-2020 seasons. The return for him should be higher than what the A's got for Sonny Gray. I'd say something like Luis Ortiz, Isan Diaz and Brett Phillips.

Harrison's career line is almost identical to Hernan Perez's last two seasons, and Perez has as much versatility as Harrison.

Obviously Perez would not command that type of return in trade, and his salary is a fraction of Harrison's and Perez is under control through 2020.

Why would Harrison cost that much?


Because Perez makes too many outs. His OBP in 2016/2017 is .299. Harrison's OBP in 2016/2017 is .330.


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Offline  Re: Josh Harrison
#12

Posted: August 09, 2017, 9:36 AM Post
Posts: 238
Location: Milwaukee
JosephC said:
Humans Need Water said:
Villar took over from the 5th - 26th hitting 288.


On the whole Villar had a July slash line at .217/.258/.265/.523.

August is still young but not much positive for second base so far (these include all August plate appearances, not just the ones taken as a second baseman):
Villar = .111/.111/.111/.222
Sogard = .000/.154/.000/.154
Perez = .280/.280/.400/.680

The 2B output for the year currently sits at .237/.304/.350/.654.

2B along with the OBP problems from the centerfield position have been the two biggest weak spots in the lineup.

Yeah, I don't care about full months as much as I care about painting an accurate portrait of one's performance over the course of said month because everyone has stretches where they don't produce statistically. Villar started July hitting 1-15 over 4 games and ended 0-9 over 3 games. He had a 16 game stretch between that where he was good (288). Last night was his first start in Aug. It's difficult to develop consistency when you get 1 start in 8 games and like 3 starts since July 27. Villar is very talented for a 2b and while it sucks he's spotty with his production he still needs to play enough to the point he can try to hopefully bounce back a bit.

Lets compare the 2b season output, and CF, to a couple other spots nobody whines about.

2b - 237/304/654
C - 256/314/745
LF - 233/311/734
CF - 219/302/723
1b - Thames since June 1 slashed 209/307/737 yet silence when it comes to him in the lineup

2b and CF with OBP problems (I don't disagree either)....but why not C, LF, Thames too? And OPS is generally going to be lower for 2b because it's not a HR position. *it's ridiculous to put a number out there without providing context and digging into things further (ie Braun is the most talented hitter on the team when healthy but he's missed a lot of time this year hence the LF numbers being what they are

People choose to complain every day on here when it's uncommon to have 8 position spots with pretty solid production. Almost every playoff caliber team has 1+ holes in their lineup. Look at this year's playoff picture.....Red Sox - both corner IF spots, Indians - Kipnis, Royals - Escobar/Gordan, Cubs - Russell/Zobrist/Schwarber (Heyward/Almora have OPS barely over 700), Rockies - Story/Gonzalez, Yankees - Holliday/Ellsbury/Frazier (new rookie so don't really count him but he's playing) and if you want to get picky you can for a few other players on other teams


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Offline  Re: Josh Harrison
#13

Posted: August 09, 2017, 12:51 PM Post
Posts: 662
No, let the Pirates keep him. I think Dubon next year might make an excellent second baseman.


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Offline  Re: Josh Harrison
#14

Posted: August 11, 2017, 11:47 AM Post
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Posts: 4604
JosephC said:
Because Perez makes too many outs. His OBP in 2016/2017 is .299. Harrison's OBP in 2016/2017 is .330.

I'm not sure when or how it was determined that OPB is more important than SLG, but from a team standpoint about a year ago I did an analysis of the past 5 or 10 years of team data and SLG had a slightly higher correlation to runs scored than OBP.


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Offline  Re: Josh Harrison
#15

Posted: August 12, 2017, 6:46 PM Post
Posts: 301
LouisEly said:
JosephC said:
Because Perez makes too many outs. His OBP in 2016/2017 is .299. Harrison's OBP in 2016/2017 is .330.

I'm not sure when or how it was determined that OPB is more important than SLG, but from a team standpoint about a year ago I did an analysis of the past 5 or 10 years of team data and SLG had a slightly higher correlation to runs scored than OBP.


I thought it was Bill James...and how...I don't know. I don't know the formula's that go into many of the stats exactly. We'll see how Neil Walker does for us...that should be a solid upgrade..


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