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Joey Votto

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Offline  Joey Votto
#1

Posted: August 14, 2017, 9:09 PM Post
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Posts: 5941
Okay this is 99% a pipe dream and probably not reality but Votto has 6 years left on his deal at $25mil per year. The 2024(7th) year he has a $7mil buyout or you pay $20mil for his services again. This would be his age 34-39/40. Since Cincy is a bit away from a serious contender, would they dump that contract for let's say Thames and a couple lottery tickets if we take on that salary or at least the majority of it?

2018
1. Villar-2B (Arby)
2. Votto- 1B ($25 mil)
3. Braun- LF ($20 mil)
4. Shaw- 3B (league min)
5. Santana- RF (league min)
6. Brinson- CF (league min)
7. Pina- C (league min)
8. Arcia- SS (league min)
SALARIES: About $50 million.

Maybe it's just way too much money to take on over that time period but he's just been so goo and so consistent. Hardly any injuries. Would be fun to do with not much in the pipeline at 1B. Again this is more along the lines of a fun proposal so don't get all bent out of shape about a true rebuild.

“There's a fine line between being confident and cocky, or overconfident. This is an extremely humbling game. But if you don't believe in yourself, no one else is going to believe in you.”


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Offline  Re: Joey Votto
#2

Posted: August 15, 2017, 7:10 AM Post
Posts: 196
That's certainly an interesting idea. I'm sure many on here will hate the idea of going after someone like Votto who's got an enormous contract and will be aging in the years to come. But, like you said - he's really shown no signs of slowing down anytime soon, and that would be one hell of a lineup for the next few years. And, if we were taking on most of his salary, I can't imagine that we'd have to give up too much in a prospect package, correct?

With that said - I'm sure a deal like this would never happen. Fun to think about though.


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Offline  Re: Joey Votto
#3

Posted: August 15, 2017, 7:51 AM Post
Posts: 470
Location: Madison, WI
No doubt Votto can still play at an elite level and I think he projects well as a hitter for another 3 or 4 seasons. But he's at the age where one injury leads to another injury leads to another injury and each of these injuries means more time on the DL. If he stays healthy he'd be worth the money and the prospects the team would surrender to get him. But it's too risky for me.

Thames is up and down and when going through a down time can be frustrating to watch. But looking at the whole picture with offensive production out of first base, this is how the Brewers stack up against the rest of MLB:
-batting average = 14th (.263)
-on base percentage = 10th (.355)
-slugging percentage = 6th (.538)
-OPS = 6th (.893)
No question Votto would be a big upgrade but IMO it would involve throwing too many resources at an area that doesn't really need to be fixed.


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Offline  Re: Joey Votto
#4

Posted: August 15, 2017, 8:23 AM Post
Posts: 470
Location: Madison, WI
Votto would likely demand that 2024 be turned into a player option. So any trade talk involving him would have to assume the 20 million in 2024 would be guaranteed.

From 2015-2017, the average Votto WAR between Fangraphs and Baseball Reference is 6.3. It's actually higher just looking at 2017 (6.85).
Assuming Votto posts the following WAR through the remainder of his contract:
2018 = 6.3
2019 = 6.3
2020 = 5.8
2021 = 5.3
2022 = 4.3
2023 = 3.3
2024 = 1.8
Fair numbers? If you think so it means his total value would be approximately 358.56 million, then subtract out the 170 he's due to make from 2018-2024 and the surplus value is +188 million. That is such a ridiculous number that it's unlikely that the Reds would even demand that much if they were looking to trade him. In terms of Brewer prospects it's the equivalent of Lewis Brinson and Corey Ray and Isan Diaz and Josh Hader and Keston Hiura and Luis Ortiz and Brandon Woodruff and Brett Phillips. While it would be totally unreasonable for the Reds to expect any major league team to give up that in terms of prospects, it does indicate that there is no way the Reds would give up Votto for Thames and a couple of lottery tickets as a salary dump.

It's a total guess, but I would estimate the Reds would probably look for approximately 120 million in surplus value if the were going to trade Votto. I don't see a Votto to Milwaukee swap happening without Brinson being involved. The numbers just wouldn't make sense. Thames is a 1.4 WAR player projected forward, that puts his surplus value at approximately 22-23 million. As unlikely as a Votto to Milwaukee trade is, if it would happen I would expect it to look something like:

Brewers get: Joey Votto
Reds get: Eric Thames, Lewis Brinson, Lewis Ortiz, Monte Harrison, Jake Gatewood
And by the numbers, that would be the Reds trading him away at about a 33% discount to account for diminished performance due to injury risk.


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Offline  Re: Joey Votto
#5

Posted: August 15, 2017, 8:29 AM Post
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I guess I was more so assuming a team like the Reds would want to shed that salary. It always feels like they are in a similar position with us and payroll.

“There's a fine line between being confident and cocky, or overconfident. This is an extremely humbling game. But if you don't believe in yourself, no one else is going to believe in you.”


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Offline  Re: Joey Votto
#6

Posted: August 15, 2017, 8:31 AM Post
Posts: 1699
Location: Madison, WI
If the Reds don't show some signs of life in the next year or two my guess has been they'd move him to an AL team who'd be more comfortable taking on those back years due to the DH. Obviously the Yankees are the obvious choice since they have unlimited money, but of course the Sox could do it as well and both have holes at at least one of DH/1B. Tor is an option too in future years with the Canada ties. Yanks obviously have the plan of going nuts for Harper and Machado and I'd say it's fair to guess the'll get one. They could add Votto at the same time and completely go all-in.

From the Brewers perspective, I don't think what you're suggesting is a terrible idea but I just can't see the smallest market in the league taking on this kind of financial risk. I'm sure this would be an automatic No Go without the Reds chipping in a significant amount of money which would end the discussions.


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Offline  Re: Joey Votto
#7

Posted: August 15, 2017, 8:32 AM Post
Posts: 10730
Votto has no trade clause I believe and his 5 and 10 rights kick in in September. In the past he's expressed his wish to stay in Cincy. So I don't think he's going anywhere. Would love to have him but it's not happening.


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Offline  Re: Joey Votto
#8

Posted: August 17, 2017, 8:36 AM Post
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There is too much of an assumption that certain teams want to "shed salary."

We'd have to give up 2-3 blue chip prospects at least to get Votto. We'd potentially have to empty out our farm system.

The Reds are in the process of rebuilding and do have the atrocity of of Homer Bailey's contract for another 2-3 years (likely 2) and 1 more year of Devin Mesoraco. Beyond that, nobody is expensive.

Their payroll is going to be well below what their owner is willing to pay in contending seasons. In 2 years when they have something better put together, they'll have a payroll that looks similar to the Brewers' payroll in 2016 or 2017. Votto at $25 million for 4 years and then a bunch of rookie deals.

A rebuilding team, so long as their owner isn't in dire financial straits, is not going to just hand away an MVP player because he's making $25 million of a soon-to-be $70 million payroll when the owner is willing to have a $120 million payroll.

Even if the Reds truly did say "we just want to get rid of this contract," teams would be lining up to offer more than "Thames and a couple of lottery tickets" for his services.

If this trade was truly offered to Mark and Stearns I think they'd take it before the Reds could even finish the details of the offer.


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Offline  Re: Joey Votto
#9

Posted: August 17, 2017, 1:06 PM Post
Posts: 128
For my money, Votto is the most complete offensive player in baseball right now, followed closely by Goldschmidt and Judge.


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Offline  Re: Joey Votto
#10

Posted: August 17, 2017, 1:11 PM Post
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Adding Votto is a fun idea. I love the guy. Amazing hitter.

Scary committing to a guy in his late 30s, but you never know.

For what it's worth, he has raked at Miller Park - 1.085 OPS in his career (307 plate appearances). But that probably has more to do with our crappy pitching over the years than the park.

Cincy doesn't seem interested in trading Votto - and he's said he wants to stay.


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Offline  Re: Joey Votto
#11

Posted: August 17, 2017, 1:17 PM Post
Posts: 1699
Location: Madison, WI
shanedog19 said:
For my money, Votto is the most complete offensive player in baseball right now, followed closely by Goldschmidt and Judge.


Probably take Judge out of there and get Trout and Altuve instead.


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Offline  Re: Joey Votto
#12

Posted: August 17, 2017, 1:19 PM Post
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Posts: 655
Location: La Crosse
shanedog19 said:
For my money, Votto is the most complete offensive player in baseball right now, followed closely by Goldschmidt and Judge.

Off the top of my head I'd take Trout, Arenado, Harper, Goldschmidt, Altuve, Murphy, and maybe Saeger over him, but Votto is a complete player. Too early to put Judge up that high imo.


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