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Stanton's Value

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Offline  Stanton's Value
#1

Posted: August 15, 2017, 8:15 AM Post
Posts: 575
Location: New Berlin, WI
I've been reading a lot of media types writing articles and tweeting that the Marlins absolutely should trade Stanton now while they still can. I'm not advocating for the Brewers to make this move, it makes zero sense. I'm moreso trying to gauge whether you all think it would actually be a wise move for the Marlins to trade the Brewers and what kind of value he would garner on the market. I personally think it's completely ridiculous for the Marlins to consider trading him at the moment. The offense there is actually pretty good and he's a massive draw for the Marlins. This feels like media types trying to argue him to a big market because all good players should play for one of eight teams...or something.

But again, let's just say the Marlins do try to trade him and aren't willing to eat any money. What kind of value in players/prospects could they get for him? With the massive contract, it's incredibly difficult what would be fair value in prospects/players for a trade.


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Offline  Re: Stanton's Value
#2

Posted: August 15, 2017, 8:33 AM Post
Posts: 10730
New ownership trade the face of the franchise? I doubt it.


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Offline  Re: Stanton's Value
#3

Posted: August 15, 2017, 8:35 AM Post
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I've read in multiple places that the groups that were interested in buying the Marlins didn't want any long term debt (contracts) so that's why Dee Gordon was available and AJ Ramos was traded. Trading Stanton would have really helped increase the value of the franchise (as backwards as that sounds).

As for trade value, I would guess he wouldn't bring back as much as you'd think. This is the first year he's been healthy a whole season in a while, and the majority of his season's have included lots of games missed due to injury. He's being paid at least $25M a year (up to $32M) for the next 10 years. Now, I understand $25M a year in 5 years could very well be the going rate for an above average hitting free agent but after all the injuries and general decline I can't imagine a 35 year old Stanton would be worth anywhere near the $32M he'd be getting paid at that age. Any team acquiring him would be getting a great player but also a lot of risk and potential money down the drain. He's got an opt out after 2020 so if you're trading for him your hoping you get 3 great, healthy seasons out of him and then he opts out. If he has 3 more years like this year, I think it's a guarantee he does. If he becomes a 100 games a year, .900 OPS player you may be stuck with that contract. I guess that would basically make him Braun, but we're not paying Ryan almost $30M a year for the next 8 years.


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Offline  Re: Stanton's Value
#4

Posted: August 15, 2017, 8:37 AM Post
Posts: 470
Location: Madison, WI
I wouldn't touch Stanton with a 10 foot pole.

Just got through with a Votto evaluation in the Votto thread but Votto is much easier to project because he's been healthy and has played most everyday in four of the last five seasons.

Stanton:
2012 = 123 games played
2013 = 116 games played
2014 = 145 games played
2015 = 74 games played
2016 = 119 games played

I'm not even going to crank the numbers on him. If I were the Marlins I would trade him ASAP. It's possible that maybe this all turns around and he's good for 150+ games per season once he gets into his 30's, but I wouldn't be betting on that. More likely is that he'll miss, on average, 40-50 games per season for the remainder of his contract and if that happens his yearly WAR probably tops out, on average, in the area of 3.5 per season. At an average salary nearing 30 million per season over the next 10 seasons, I think he probably does have surplus value but it would likely be pretty minimal.


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Offline  Re: Stanton's Value
#5

Posted: August 15, 2017, 8:55 AM Post
Posts: 575
Location: New Berlin, WI
I can see the argument where you are definitely selling high on him, and how much of a burden that contract is. I think it's hard to justify trading such an incredible talent in his prime unless you are getting back a ton in prospect value. I also can see teams unwilling to part with top prospects AND take on 290 million for one corner outfielder. The opt out would make it very difficult for the Marlins to eat any of the contract in a trade, though I doubt they'd do so anyways. I could see a team offering to take on the whole contract and give up maybe 5 total players with maybe 3 being top 30 prospects but none in the top 5, one being a current decent MLB player, and one flier type. That would seem like a lot to a casual fan, but in reality it isn't a ton of value. I can also see the Marlins saying "well if you want a generational talent in his prime, we'll take your first and second born, your right arm, keys to your yacht, and 5 top prospects of our choosing". I think jerichoholic is much closer on what his value truly should be versus what the Marlins would likely wind up getting in a trade now. Teams tend to pay way over the top for premium talent as opposed to very good talent. Hence why the returns were so much different for Miller/Chapman last deadline than they were for Robertson this deadline.


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Offline  Re: Stanton's Value
#6

Posted: August 15, 2017, 8:57 AM Post
Posts: 575
Location: New Berlin, WI
I think the only way Stanton is traded by this deadline is if it's to the Dombrowski's of Boston, and Devers and Groome would for sure be involved in that trade.


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Offline  Re: Stanton's Value
#7

Posted: August 15, 2017, 9:03 AM Post
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Location: California
KeithStone53151 said:
I think the only way Stanton is traded by this deadline is if it's to the Dombrowski's of Boston, and Devers and Groome would for sure be involved in that trade.

Please God no...I am sick of Boston-New York enough already. I don't need to hear about Boston's Stanton vs. New York's Judge for the next decade.


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Offline  Re: Stanton's Value
#8

Posted: August 15, 2017, 10:02 AM Post
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The Weatherman
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Given the history of the Marlins, there's absolutely no way the new ownership could justify trading Stanton. None at all. It would be a PR disaster. They have to keep him.


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Offline  Re: Stanton's Value
#9

Posted: August 15, 2017, 10:05 AM Post
Posts: 1699
Location: Madison, WI
Yea I would've thought that the window when trading Stanton made sense was when the team was still trying to be sold. Now that it's done I don't see the urgency. Their team isn't half bad and can hang in a wild card race next year.


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Offline  Re: Stanton's Value
#10

Posted: August 15, 2017, 6:08 PM Post
Posts: 470
Location: Madison, WI
Warning Track Power said:
KeithStone53151 said:
I think the only way Stanton is traded by this deadline is if it's to the Dombrowski's of Boston, and Devers and Groome would for sure be involved in that trade.

Please God no...I am sick of Boston-New York enough already. I don't need to hear about Boston's Stanton vs. New York's Judge for the next decade.


If I'm in Miami's GM chair and the Red Sox called and offered me Devers for Stanton straight up, I would have signed on the dotted line within about five seconds. Devers could crap out or maybe be the next Brett Lawrie, but man has he looked good so far!


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Offline  Re: Stanton's Value
#11

Posted: August 16, 2017, 8:40 AM Post
Posts: 2916
KeithStone53151 said:
I'm not advocating for the Brewers to make this move, it makes zero sense. I'm moreso trying to gauge whether you all think it would actually be a wise move for the Marlins to trade the Brewers and what kind of value he would garner on the market. .


Not advocating for it, either, but I'll play along and say the return would be something along the lines of:

Arcia, Hader, Woodruff & Brinson. Something ridiculous like that. Which of course there is no way the Brewers do that, but that is likely what it would take

The David Stearns era: Controllable Young Talent. Watch the Jedi work his magic!


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Offline  Re: Stanton's Value
#12

Posted: August 16, 2017, 9:04 AM Post
Posts: 575
Location: New Berlin, WI
I kinda expected some wildly different opinions. The majority think it would be primarily a salary dump with a few decent pieces mixed in. A couple people said he would be completely off limits, and 3and2 said it would take the moon but really it's probably not happening. There's some pretty good evidence in this thread that valuing an elite talent in his prime but on a potentially crippling contract is very difficult. Considering that Harper is looking for a 10 year/$400 million deal(someone correct me if that figure is inaccurate) in free agency when he's 26, Stanton's deal seems like a somewhat reasonable deal by comparison.


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Offline  Re: Stanton's Value
#13

Posted: August 16, 2017, 9:27 AM Post
Posts: 1699
Location: Madison, WI
Difference is that Stanton has always been hurt, granted some kind of fluky but he's really only played one full season since his 2nd year and that was only 145 games so likely hurt a bit there too. This year though he's showing what he can do if healthy. The contract is also tricky because he can opt out after 2020, which he would do if healthy and doing well. So, if you trade for him and it works out you're either losing him or having to add even more onto the contract that he's already owed. Or if he's constantly hurt, he'll opt in and you'll be on the hook for 35ish mil per year until he's 38ish. Very tricky one to work out and probably only leaves a few teams as options that can handle that financial risk.

But if I had to guess, it would probably be along the lines of one strong prospect and another one or two lower level guys as to what a team would be willing to give while also taking that risk. And I think Miami would just hold off right now on that deal rather than the bad pub that would come with trading him. I'd be surprised if someone was willing to give a truckload ala the Arcia, Hader, Brinson, Woodruff package mentioned above and take on full financial responsibility. Once again, you're left with BOS and NYY as the most likely options due to having the DH in their back pocket for later years. Dodgers are going to clear a lot of salary soon but don't have DH and I'm pretty sure Kershaw has an opt out coming soon, possibly after 2018, where he'll locking 35-40 mil until he's like 38.


Last edited by tmwiese55 on August 16, 2017, 9:47 AM, edited 1 time in total.

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Offline  Re: Stanton's Value
#14

Posted: August 16, 2017, 9:44 AM Post
Posts: 575
Location: New Berlin, WI
tmwiese55 said:
Difference is that Stanton has always been hurt, granted some kind of fluke but he's really only played one full season since his 2nd year and that was only 145 games so likely hurt a bit there too. This year though he's showing what he can do if healthy. The contract is also tricky because he can opt out after 2020, which he would do if healthy and doing well. So, if you trade for him and it works out you're either losing him or having to add even more onto the contract that he's already owed. Or if he's constantly hurt, he'll opt in and you'll be on the hook for 35ish mil per year until he's 38ish. Very tricky one to work out and probably only leaves a few teams as options that can handle that financial risk.

But if I had to guess, it would probably be along the lines of one strong prospect and another one or two lower level guys as to what a team would be willing to give while also taking that risk. And I think Miami would just hold off right now on that deal rather than the bad pub that would come with trading him. I'd be surprised if someone was willing to give a truckload ala the Arcia, Hader, Brinson, Woodruff package mentioned above and take on full financial responsibility. Once again, you're left with BOS and NYY as the most likely options due to having the DH in their back pocket for later years. Dodgers are going to clear a lot of salary soon but don't have DH and I'm pretty sure Kershaw has an opt out coming soon, possibly after 2018, where he'll locking 35-40 mil until he's like 38.


I feel like more teams are getting themselves into the "big market" category. St Louis signed that massive tv deal, arizona, Angels, Giants, cubs, possibly rangers. There could easily be 8-10 teams that could afford the contract if inclined. Even the brewers with a slightly better tv deal and increased revenue sharing from internet tv packages can do better in competing years from a payroll standpoint than the 110 max we saw 6-7 years ago. We still can't afford stanton, but point is that more teams can get involved in these big free agents than in the past. I highly suspect that Harper will work opt outs somewhere into his megadeal when the time comes, that's becoming fairly trendy for guys talented enough to be able to demand it.


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Offline  Re: Stanton's Value
#15

Posted: August 16, 2017, 9:48 AM Post
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3and2Fastball said:
KeithStone53151 said:
I'm not advocating for the Brewers to make this move, it makes zero sense. I'm moreso trying to gauge whether you all think it would actually be a wise move for the Marlins to trade the Brewers and what kind of value he would garner on the market. .


Not advocating for it, either, but I'll play along and say the return would be something along the lines of:

Arcia, Hader, Woodruff & Brinson. Something ridiculous like that. Which of course there is no way the Brewers do that, but that is likely what it would take


No way it would take that much. Brinson for sure and then a couple lesser pieces.


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Offline  Re: Stanton's Value
#16

Posted: August 17, 2017, 7:10 AM Post
Posts: 470
Location: Madison, WI
I actually came up with long-term numbers much better than I expected when doing a surplus value estimate on Stanton.

Doing 10 year projections on players is going to be questionable enough but even more so with Stanton considering his injury history.

I figured the most fair way to do it was just to take his average WAR over the last three seasons, project him with that figure though his age 32 season and then reduce the WAR by 0.5 for each season after that. His average WAR between Fangraphs and Baseball Reference for the 2015-2017 seasons (2017 value extrapolated to a full season value) are 3.8, 2.1, 6.6 for an average of 4.2. So I projected him as a 4.2 WAR player from 2018-2022 and then I have him dropping 0.5 WAR per season so in the final year of the deal (2028) he is credited at 1.2 WAR. 2028 is an option year, but he has full no-trade protection so I would assume he demands that season be turned into a player option to waive his no-trade rights and therefore that season is counted in the estimate.

Doing that puts his value at 435.20 million. He is scheduled to make 310 million so his surplus value would be approximately 125.2 million. That is obviously a pretty huge value and puts him a level above Jose Quintana in terms of what the Marlins could expect in a trade. When talking the Brewers, Brinson would have to be included as piece #1 with several more high-quality pieces after him. The numbers just wouldn't make sense otherwise.

But as noted above, there is an opt-out after the 2020 season which changes everything. If you only run the numbers for the next three seasons, Stanton's value is 123.67 million and he's due to make 77 million. So if he does opt out the surplus value is 46.67 million. That puts him slightly above Sonny Gray territory. 46.67 million would take Brinson off the table, and a proper return would probably look something like Isan Diaz + Brandon Woodruff + Freddy Peralta.

The opt-out really changes things and shows how hard it would be to make a deal. Marlins probably would want 125 million in surplus value back and trading teams would likely only want to give up about 45-50 million in prospect surplus value. Stanton just looks like he would be a real difficult player to trade.


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Offline  Re: Stanton's Value
#17

Posted: August 17, 2017, 9:24 AM Post
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jerichoholicninja said:
3and2Fastball said:
KeithStone53151 said:
I'm not advocating for the Brewers to make this move, it makes zero sense. I'm moreso trying to gauge whether you all think it would actually be a wise move for the Marlins to trade the Brewers and what kind of value he would garner on the market. .


Not advocating for it, either, but I'll play along and say the return would be something along the lines of:

Arcia, Hader, Woodruff & Brinson. Something ridiculous like that. Which of course there is no way the Brewers do that, but that is likely what it would take


No way it would take that much. Brinson for sure and then a couple lesser pieces.


I'll put this in the same category as the Votto discussion in the other thread.

If the Marlins put out there that Stanton was available this offseason, there would be a bidding war among enough teams that the return would become several big-time prospects.

Smaller market teams that think they are contending and large market teams will not be in absolute fear of these contracts.

Smaller market teams that have a window of contention will take on a player like this knowing that they'll probably be rebuilding in 5 years. Stanton can sit there making $25 million while they cut the rest of payroll and have a $70 million payroll from 2023-2027 or '28.

Larger markets will take on Stanton knowing that in 5 years that (hopefully) their TV deal/revenue will be up and the luxury tax threshold will rise so they can just overpay him for the end of his career.

Everyone knew that Cabrera, Upton, Zimmermann, etc. would not be worth it at the end of their contracts and they're patting themselves on the back that they were correct. Now, the Tigers fell short of winning a World Series, but they had plenty of playoff teams and near World Series victories mixed in there.

Detroit is a mid-market that acted like a large market, but the people were right about all of those contracts. How much does it matter? The heir to the franchise will still just slash payroll in the rebuild and pay Verlander, Sanchez, Zimmermann, Cabrera, Upton and hope to trade a few of them while they rebuild and still have a payroll that is $50-70 million less than they'd been paying in recent years.

Long story short: plenty of teams would take on a player like this thus creating a bidding war.


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