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Broxton - offseason value

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Offline  Re: Broxton - offseason value
#21

Posted: August 17, 2017, 7:30 PM Post
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Location: Kenosha, WI
Keon Broxton is beyound the normal streaky. I think it is a given when someone says streaky they aren't talking about normal ups and down of a season. Keon Broxton goes weeks where if Yovani Gallardo was still on the team he would probably pinch hit for Broxton late in games. He can be pathetically bad.


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Offline  Re: Broxton - offseason value
#22

Posted: August 17, 2017, 9:17 PM Post
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Just need to send him down once a season


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Offline  Re: Broxton - offseason value
#23

Posted: August 17, 2017, 11:48 PM Post
Posts: 259
adambr2 said:
Yeah I'm worried that Santana's defense will always limit his upside. It's hard to imagine that he was ever deemed suitable enough for CF.



I could see why people might have thought he could have developed into that 3-4 years ago. Even now he looks the part of a good RF'er a good portion of the time...he shows decent range and a good enough arm. And then he just makes these totally egregious mistakes that make him look like a High Schooler out there. I get that line drives hit right at you are hard. But man, it's like once a week he just totally blows a play.

Anyway, with regard to Broxton, if he can finish up on a hot streak, I hope they shop him while his value is high. I think it's gonna take Brinson a while to adjust at the plate at the big league level..we might have to put up with a full year of him struggling before he figures it out. But I think if you want a legitimate contender, you need consistency. He's just way too up and down. I was incredibly high on him coming into the year. But I just don't see how you can get by with one of your key players disappearing for 6 weeks at a time...even if he gets red hot for other stretches.

Those ridiculous swings play on second tier teams. Like Geoff Jenkins was for the Brewers but worse.


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Offline  Re: Broxton - offseason value
#24

Posted: August 17, 2017, 11:59 PM Post
Posts: 259
LouisEly said:
1) How are the Brewers supposed to know if Brinson and Phillips will develop into solid ML players if they are sitting behind Broxton, Braun, and Santana?

B) Pretty much all major league players are streaky, except for the very elite and the... other end of the spectrum. Everyone else, their numbers are the end of the season numbers and are generally who they are. If Broxton finishes w/an OPS of .800, that's likely who he is (because it's pretty much who he was last year).



Of course they are, but not to the extent that Broxton is. I do believe there IS some value in how you get to those year end numbers.

.191 .276 .324 March/April
.067/.176/.133 15 games in July before being sent down.

I think the valley's are too much for a team that wants to be competitive. I don't expect everyone to be Travis Shaw like consistent, but you can't play months at a time with a guy who puts up pitcher like numbers.

At least he's playing great D in CF while he's struggling as badly as he does.


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Offline  Re: Broxton - offseason value
#25

Posted: August 18, 2017, 7:21 AM Post
Posts: 161
OnTheBlack said:
LouisEly said:
1) How are the Brewers supposed to know if Brinson and Phillips will develop into solid ML players if they are sitting behind Broxton, Braun, and Santana?

B) Pretty much all major league players are streaky, except for the very elite and the... other end of the spectrum. Everyone else, their numbers are the end of the season numbers and are generally who they are. If Broxton finishes w/an OPS of .800, that's likely who he is (because it's pretty much who he was last year).



Of course they are, but not to the extent that Broxton is. I do believe there IS some value in how you get to those year end numbers.

.191 .276 .324 March/April
.067/.176/.133 15 games in July before being sent down.

I think the valley's are too much for a team that wants to be competitive. I don't expect everyone to be Travis Shaw like consistent, but you can't play months at a time with a guy who puts up pitcher like numbers.

At least he's playing great D in CF while he's struggling as badly as he does.


I guess this is why I'm wondering if he wouldn't be a good trade asset this offseason - IF he were to finish this season on a hot run to get his overall numbers up as I had mentioned in the first post. Would another team overlook these dark valleys, and instead just focus on the fact that they are getting a CF that plays good defense and is a legit 25/25 guy? With that said though, we have no idea if Lewis Brinson will ever turn into a 25/25 guy for us? We all hope that he does, but at this stage he's completely unproven at the MLB level. If (and a big IF at that) Broxton finishes strong and turns himself into a trade-able asset this offseason, it'll be interesting to see what DS and company do in clearing up an OF spot for Brinson.


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Offline  Re: Broxton - offseason value
#26

Posted: August 18, 2017, 9:19 AM Post
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He may be valuable to a team that already has a fair amount of LH bats in the OF and probably a LH starting CF but wants him as the 4th OF that could start for an extended period if necessary.

He may not be so streaky if you don't need him to be your full-time starter and understand when to play him (hint: start him when a lefty is on the mound).

Unfortunately since he'd be on the wrong side of the platoon, he doesn't generate the value of more of a full-time player.


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Offline  Re: Broxton - offseason value
#27

Posted: August 18, 2017, 9:34 AM Post
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Santana is so frustrating to watch on defense because he has pretty good foot speed and a very, very good arm. He just gets profoundly awful breaks on the ball. I think he has a lot more value on an AL club that can DH him and only use him in the field occasionally. If the Brewers can get value back for him, I think they can fill a hole on defense and have a fighting chance to maintain decent production in RF with the assortment of other OFs available to them in the organization.

I am dubious about Broxton's trade value. Yes, when he makes contact the ball just launches off of his bat like few others. He also plays excellent defense most of the time. And plus speed on the basepaths. The big caveats are obviously that contact continues to be an issue and the defense mysteriously seems to take a few days off every month. Both of those things, but the inability to make contact especially, just kill his value. I don't know that any other team would trade for him specifically to be their starter, and how much trade value do 4th OFers typically have? So I hope the Brewers hang on to him as a fill-in outfielder once Brinson and/or Phillips are ready for full time MLB work. I don't know that what you could get back for him would be worth giving up on the value he can provide in Milwaukee.


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Offline  Re: Broxton - offseason value
#28

Posted: August 18, 2017, 9:39 AM Post
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.263/.369/.506 vs. LHP. If Phillips was our guy in CF or any any OF spot, Broxton would be valuable to keep around. Instead, Phillips is probably the 4th guy that spells guys against RHP.


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Offline  Re: Broxton - offseason value
#29

Posted: August 18, 2017, 9:44 AM Post
Posts: 183
I'm not too worried about either Brinson or Phillips. In their first stints they both looked quite lost, in the later ones a lot less so. Brinson in particular was unlucky, with a .107 BABIP. That's coming from someone with the 25th highest average exit velocity in the majors (Higher than, albeit barely, Harper, Freeman, Cespedes, Smoak just to name some good hitters) and someone who is a good runner to boot. Basically, even if he keeps doing exactly what he's been doing so far and doesn't adjust or improve, his result will improve significantly. I think we'll be fine letting them learn their trade in the majors, I don't think the adjustment will be too long or too rough.

As for the question at hand: It's a difficult one to answer. The combination of speed, power and defense at a premium defense position is rare. But so are the awful on-base skills and the swing-and-miss; perhaps best illustrated by his contact rate on swings on pitches inside the zone: 68%. That's the worst among all major leaguers with 300+ PAs. By almost 5%. He's an extremely difficult player to rate properly. He can be an extremely valuable player if he ever "figures it out", but will he? And how does the extreme streaks affect value? If it does at all.

I'd say what we do in the offseason depends on what people are offering. Since he'll have an option we don't absolutely have to make a move if we don't want to. Eventually we will, of course, but the roster crunch isn't going to be too bad this offseason. If noone is willing to blow us away for either Santana or Broxton, we start the season with Braun, Brinson, Phillips and Santana with Broxton in AAA. I'm fine with trading Santana for the right offer instead. I think that Santana will have the better career of the two, but it's also a matter of looking at how they're valued on the trading market in relation to our needs. A team looking for a DH and/or who are short on corner OFs might put a higher value on a player like Santana than the outfield-rich and DH-less Brewers do. But then again the midseason market for bat-first outfielders (Even if we're talking older rentals here as opposed to a controllable 25yo) wasn't great; remains to be seen what it'll be in the future.


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Offline  Re: Broxton - offseason value
#30

Posted: August 18, 2017, 10:24 AM Post
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There are currently six CF with at least 350 PA who have an OPS of .800 or greater. If Broxton finishes the season as the opening post suggests, he will be in high demand. Even if he finishes in the upper .700's, which seems easily doable, he should bring back some good value in trade.

With so many OF and Braun basically untradeable, it seems like a good idea to trade Broxton this offseason and start next year with Braun, Brinson, Santana as the OF with Phillips as either the 4th OF or the first call-up from AAA.


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Offline  Re: Broxton - offseason value
#31

Posted: August 18, 2017, 11:18 AM Post
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monty57 said:
There are currently six CF with at least 350 PA who have an OPS of .800 or greater.

No doubt he has been productive on the whole, but with Broxton it's more complicated than that. As an acquiring team, you're going to have to be comfortable knowing that for extended periods of time, he has shown to be almost completely worthless at the plate. It's not ebb and flow with Broxton, it's flood or drought. His volatility devalues him. To what degree is up for debate. I just don't think a team gunning for the playoffs is going to be comfortable with the prolonged lack of production as a primary outfield piece.

Edit: Forgot to note, he'll be 28 for next season, which is about the age a player's speed starts showing increasingly diminished returns in general. Might not happen to Broxton, but it's another consideration when working out his value.


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Offline  Re: Broxton - offseason value
#32

Posted: August 18, 2017, 3:22 PM Post
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And That said:
monty57 said:
There are currently six CF with at least 350 PA who have an OPS of .800 or greater.

No doubt he has been productive on the whole, but with Broxton it's more complicated than that. As an acquiring team, you're going to have to be comfortable knowing that for extended periods of time, he has shown to be almost completely worthless at the plate. It's not ebb and flow with Broxton, it's flood or drought. His volatility devalues him. To what degree is up for debate. I just don't think a team gunning for the playoffs is going to be comfortable with the prolonged lack of production as a primary outfield piece.

Edit: Forgot to note, he'll be 28 for next season, which is about the age a player's speed starts showing increasingly diminished returns in general. Might not happen to Broxton, but it's another consideration when working out his value.


Is this actually true though? Yes, it's possible a team could add him and he might be a train wreck in the playoffs. It's also possible thst he happens to catch fire in the playoffs and mskes the difference between a World Series and an early exit.

Is there any tangible difference in terms of wins and losses for their team between 2 players at the same position with the same statistics at the end of the year, one that has been very consistent, and one that is very volitale? Or do we just assume this because we've always been conditioned to assume consistency = good?

I'm not saying you're wrong. I'm honestly curious as to whether there have been analytical studies done on it to try to value 'consistency.'


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Offline  Re: Broxton - offseason value
#33

Posted: August 18, 2017, 5:05 PM Post
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Broxton reminds me of Mike Cameron, only with a little less defense.


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Offline  Re: Broxton - offseason value
#34

Posted: August 18, 2017, 7:22 PM Post
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DHonks said:
Broxton reminds me of Mike Cameron, only with a little less defense.


The Mike Cameron comparison is brought up all the time but as a hitter he's Geoff Jenkins.


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Offline  Re: Broxton - offseason value
#35

Posted: August 19, 2017, 12:22 AM Post
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jerichoholicninja said:
DHonks said:
Broxton reminds me of Mike Cameron, only with a little less defense.


The Mike Cameron comparison is brought up all the time but as a hitter he's Geoff Jenkins.


Because of his streakiness? The stats are a dead ringer for Mike Cameron, hence my frequent comparisons since we acquired him.


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Offline  Re: Broxton - offseason value
#36

Posted: August 19, 2017, 11:24 AM Post
Posts: 601
Broxton reminds me of Jackie Bradley Jr. of the Red Sox. Both excellent and flashy centerfielders but are streaky hitters. They are frustrating to watch when swinging at bad pitches and striking out a lot. Then sometimes they can hit homers and win a game for you with the bat.


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Offline  Re: Broxton - offseason value
#37

Posted: August 19, 2017, 3:08 PM Post
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DHonks said:
jerichoholicninja said:
DHonks said:
Broxton reminds me of Mike Cameron, only with a little less defense.


The Mike Cameron comparison is brought up all the time but as a hitter he's Geoff Jenkins.


Because of his streakiness? The stats are a dead ringer for Mike Cameron, hence my frequent comparisons since we acquired him.


The streakiness. People always bring up Cameron because of the power/speed/defense combo but what frustrates most people here is the streakiness. Jenkins would end up every year with a decent stat line. But he would get there by putting up some of the most putrid weeks you could imagine followed up by another week of mashing the ball.


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Offline  Re: Broxton - offseason value
#38

Posted: August 19, 2017, 5:17 PM Post
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Http://www.brewcrewball.com/2017/8/19/1 ... jury-prone

Sums up my feeling on Broxton vs. Brinson just about perfectly. Broxton should be dealt this off-season only if Stearns receives an offer that fully compensates us for Broxton's value. Not simply for the sake of freeing up a spot for Brinson.


Broxton hit his 20th home run yesterday and has 19 steals, so it’s really only a matter of time until he reaches the 20/20 benchmark. His OPS this season is up to .774 and his wRC+ up to 95; for his MLB career he now has a 100 wRC+ with 29 homers, 43 steals, and 3.4 fWAR/2.9 bWAR across 626 plate appearances, or roughly a full-season’s worth trips to bat.

We would be ecstatic if Lewis Brinson could achieve those types of numbers, right? A 3+ WAR player who is capable of producing a league-average OPS, is a threat to mash 25+ long balls and swipe 40+ bags, all while playing average-to-better defense at a premium position in center field? So why then should the competing Brewers feel the need to so quickly jettison a player who is already actualizing that production at the MLB level, who has at least one more year of control at league minimum before possibly hitting arbitration as a Super 2 player, and isn’t eligible for free agency until after the 2022 season? In my opinion, Keon Broxton should be the starting center fielder until someone takes the job from him.

Lewis Brinson isn’t going anywhere. He’ll inevitably get his opportunities - someone is going to get hurt or have their play fall off at some point. But until he truly forces the issue - which he hasn’t yet at this point - I don’t see a great need to get rid of a controllable and talented player like Broxton or Domingo Santana simply to give Brinson a chance to prove he can be even as good as one of those two players.


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Offline  Re: Broxton - offseason value
#39

Posted: August 19, 2017, 5:40 PM Post
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Here's my thoughts: from what I know of Stearns, he isn't going to place a 'volatility discount' on Broxton. If Broxton does succeed in finishing around the numbers given in the OP, Stearns will price him at a price appropriate with those numbers, along with his cost and control.

Maybe this makes Broxton less likely to be traded, I really don't know, but I don't think he'll do it just for Brinson's sake regardless of what he can get. I think it's totally possible that he has entertained the idea of holding onto Broxton, keeping Brinson, who presently has more trade value than Broxton, in Colorado Springs in 2018, where he'll presumably rake and maintain that value, with the potential of using him as a centerpiece in a big deadline deal if we're in contention.


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Offline  Re: Broxton - offseason value
#40

Posted: September 02, 2017, 10:53 PM Post
Posts: 3034
Broxton alone has some value, even with his streakiness.

Broxton-Garza as a centerpiece of a trade could get a slightly better return.

Broxton-Davies as a combo in a trade could really net a huge return.


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