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First Base

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Offline  Re: First Base
#21

Posted: September 04, 2017, 7:06 AM Post
Posts: 183
Thames deal isn't a bad one at all. If he became a free agent today, he'd likely get more money than what we're paying him, despite the post-April slump. So the money shouldn't really be a consideration in this. Doesn't mean we shouldn't consider how we can improve though.

Trying out Santana at first wouldn't be a bad idea. Having two 1B-only players in Aguilar and Thames (Thames in the outfield isn't really a thing...) puts some limits on a team that likes having an 8-man bullpen. Essentially forcing us to have Hernan Perez as the primary backup for several positions, giving too much playing time to a relatively poor bat. Whereas having a 1B who can play other positions as well gives some flexibility. Now that could come in many ways; Braun/Santana trying out there, Shaw (Don't have another option at 3rd though really), resigning Walker, a C/1B type. Or something else.

So what we do with Aguilar/Thames would have to depend partially on what the market is for them: I'm open to trading either one, but it should only be if there's a good return for them. And I worry that the slugger market isn't going to be all that great this offseason. And it should also be based on what the Brewers staff see day in and day out; where do they believe Thames/Aguilars real level is? Is there more to come from either one as they adapt (or re-adapt) to the majors? If it's unlikely, for whatever reason, to see improvement then we should rather actively look for trades. If they think we can reasonably expect more from either one, or both, then we hang on to them. Either to play, or to trade at a later date.


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#22

Posted: September 04, 2017, 7:22 AM Post
Posts: 3034
superfly said:
BrewCrewBlueDevil said:
Hopefully they can unload Thames contract. It is not a good one.


Thames had his year paid for by the end of April, so I'm not sure how the deal is a bad one at this point. Unloading a $5m/yr deal on a 30HR guy who can take a walk seems silly to me.


It's not a bad deal at all.

The thing is... Thames and Aguilar are the kind of players that are good for the short-to-medium term, but long-term may be a different story.

If someone makes an offer for Thames/Aguilar that blows Stearns away, then I hope Stearns goes for it. The Crew can always adjust things (plus, moving Braun/Santana does open up space in the outfield for Phillips/Brinson/Stokes and other young players).


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#23

Posted: September 04, 2017, 8:45 AM Post
Posts: 183
5 million dollars for a player with declining skills who can not make adjustments at the plate. Oh yeah, five million for Garza being a #5 starter is a good deal, too.


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#24

Posted: September 04, 2017, 11:23 AM Post
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BrewCrewBlueDevil said:
5 million dollars for a player with declining skills who can not make adjustments at the plate. Oh yeah, five million for Garza being a #5 starter is a good deal, too.


Not sure a 28 year old Thames has "declining skills." And, yes, $5M gets you basically a replacement level player these days so $5M is a good deal for Thames and probably Garza too.


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#25

Posted: September 04, 2017, 11:44 AM Post
Posts: 9986
I have no problem with Santana tried at 1st, but for some reason I feel he may be traded in the off-season.

Feel like if Braun was going to be tried there it would have happened this last off-season.

Thames/Aguilar should be worth about 3 WAR a year as a platoon going forward. For under 7M a year, we can live with that.


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#26

Posted: September 04, 2017, 1:01 PM Post
Posts: 183
Hopefully Milwaukee can fill their roster with 5 million dollar players and be around .500 next season. They are good deals and it is a rebuild, right?


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#27

Posted: September 04, 2017, 5:15 PM Post
Posts: 9986
BrewCrewBlueDevil said:
Hopefully Milwaukee can fill their roster with 5 million dollar players and be around .500 next season. They are good deals and it is a rebuild, right?


Yeah, Thames and Aguilar isn't even close to the same thing as Garza.


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Offline  Re: First Base
#28

Posted: September 04, 2017, 7:17 PM Post
Posts: 2833
Thames is ranked 20th among all MLB first basemen in WAR. There is certainly reason to want to upgrade there

The David Stearns era: Controllable Young Talent. Watch the Jedi work his magic!


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#29

Posted: September 04, 2017, 8:54 PM Post
Posts: 9986
3and2Fastball said:
Thames is ranked 20th among all MLB first basemen in WAR. There is certainly reason to want to upgrade there


Ok then, with whom? We don't have a Cody Bellinger waiting in the wings. Hosmer and Morrison are going to cost an arm and a leg on multi year deals and you're buying high on both. Even if you want to try to convert Braun or Santana, neither is really an offensive upgrade from a Thames/Aguilar platoon, and it's unrealistic to expect either to be a defensive upgrade in their first year at the position.

Any worthwhile trade upgrade is going to be a big hit to the pitching surplus we've worked so hard to build up in the minors.

It's easy to say an upgrade would be nice and it certainly would, but I don't see anything out there either internally or externally that makes a lot of sense and is going to be a substantial upgrade.

My guess is the tentative plan right now, subject to change like anything else, is one more year of Thames/Aguilar and then re-evaluate after 2018.


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Offline  Re: First Base
#30

Posted: September 04, 2017, 9:11 PM Post
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3and2Fastball said:
Thames is ranked 20th among all MLB first basemen in WAR. There is certainly reason to want to upgrade there


I'd like to know where the Thames/Aguilar platoon ranks as that is really what matters. Aguilar has 1.2 WAR according to Baseball Reference. I'm guessing the Brewers first base production is top 10 but I could be wrong.


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#31

Posted: September 04, 2017, 9:18 PM Post
Posts: 1740
I know we are not supposed to think RBIs matter - tell that to the runner stranded in scoring position - but a power hitting 1B with less than 60 RBIs in September is insane.


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#32

Posted: September 04, 2017, 9:23 PM Post
Posts: 1740
jerichoholicninja said:
3and2Fastball said:
Thames is ranked 20th among all MLB first basemen in WAR. There is certainly reason to want to upgrade there


I'd like to know where the Thames/Aguilar platoon ranks as that is really what matters. Aguilar has 1.2 WAR according to Baseball Reference. I'm guessing the Brewers first base production is top 10 but I could be wrong.


Is that strictly as a team at 1B and not adding their stats as PH/DH/LF?

I'd say we are doing ok as a tandem without seeing the breakdown, though Thames has slowed down so much as a run producer after his white hot April that I don't think he can come into 2018 as a reliable starting 1B.


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#33

Posted: September 05, 2017, 2:43 AM Post
Posts: 183
Brewers 1B are 15th in in the majors in fWAR, and 10th in wRC+ according to FanGraphs. It does appear to just be adding Aguilar and Thames together, so some will be them as DH/PH, or Thames in the outfield.


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#34

Posted: September 05, 2017, 10:35 AM Post
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Braun to 3B, Shaw to 1B, Santana to LF. Problem solved. [devil]


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#35

Posted: September 05, 2017, 11:56 AM Post
Posts: 670
Eric Hosmer is so much better than Thames, both offensively and defensively. And he's younger...Someone needs to watch more Royals games.


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#36

Posted: September 05, 2017, 12:22 PM Post
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dacbrewers said:
Eric Hosmer is so much better than Thames, both offensively and defensively. And he's younger...Someone needs to watch more Royals games.


I'm not sure anyone was saying that Thames was better than him. I think most are realistic though when saying that they would take Thames ($5M) and Aguilar (league minimum) at what they are producing than signing Hosmer for a longer term contract at most likely $15M a year. The Brewers just don't really need to do that right now.


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#37

Posted: September 05, 2017, 12:54 PM Post
Posts: 2833
adambr2 said:
3and2Fastball said:
Thames is ranked 20th among all MLB first basemen in WAR. There is certainly reason to want to upgrade there


Ok then, with whom? We don't have a Cody Bellinger waiting in the wings. Hosmer and Morrison are going to cost an arm and a leg on multi year deals and you're buying high on both. Even if you want to try to convert Braun or Santana, neither is really an offensive upgrade from a Thames/Aguilar platoon, and it's unrealistic to expect either to be a defensive upgrade in their first year at the position.

Any worthwhile trade upgrade is going to be a big hit to the pitching surplus we've worked so hard to build up in the minors.

It's easy to say an upgrade would be nice and it certainly would, but I don't see anything out there either internally or externally that makes a lot of sense and is going to be a substantial upgrade.

My guess is the tentative plan right now, subject to change like anything else, is one more year of Thames/Aguilar and then re-evaluate after 2018.


I would certainly agree. Thames/Aguillar may indeed be considered the best move in 2018. Personally, I'd like to see Braun at 1B in 2018 which allows us to keep all 4 of Brinson/Phillips/Santana/Broxton, all 4 of whom I think are more valuable than Thames.

The David Stearns era: Controllable Young Talent. Watch the Jedi work his magic!


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Offline  Re: First Base
#38

Posted: September 05, 2017, 1:07 PM Post
Posts: 9986
Yeah, not sure who is referring to with that comment. No one is claiming Thames is better than Hosmer. Also Hosmer is a brutal defender at 1st, so also not sure why he said offensively and defensively.

It's probably going to cost 5 years and 100M to acquire Hosmer. Obviously free agency is a guessing game at this point but that's my best guess.

Is it worth that kind of investment for a guy who is probably 1 win or so better per year than a Thames/Aguilar platoon?

What would the trade market be for a guy like Jose Abreu? He has 2 more years of control and would be a needed big bat in the middle of the lineup. Have to think the White Sox would definitely be willing to deal him being in full sell mode.


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Offline  Re: First Base
#39

Posted: September 05, 2017, 1:30 PM Post
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adambr2 said:

What would the trade market be for a guy like Jose Abreu? He has 2 more years of control and would be a needed big bat in the middle of the lineup. Have to think the White Sox would definitely be willing to deal him being in full sell mode.


What would his arby be? His salary is just over $10M this season so I would think that would only go up. He is a very good hitter but is he a good defender? I only ask that because he's headed to the wrong side of 30 and maybe he gets to be a defensive liability in the field and it drags down his offensive output. What a get would that be to have is another .300 hitter in the middle of our lineup though.

1. Villar- 2B
2. Braun- LF
3. Shaw- 3B
4. Abreu- 1B
5. Santana- RF
6. Pina- C
7. Brinson/Phillips/Broxton- CF
8. Arcia- SS


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Offline  Re: First Base
#40

Posted: September 05, 2017, 3:18 PM Post
Posts: 5737
I would listen carefully on any deal for Thames, Aguilar, or Shaw and Pina for that matter. Very questionable to me if any of those guys can repeat the numbers they had this season. If Shaw stays and Thames goes, remember Shaw can play1B too.

With all that said, I've been saying for over a year I would love to see Santana or Braun moved to 1B. I'm sure they have considered this, and there may be reasons it hasn't been done, or won't be done.


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