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Dee Gordon

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Offline  Dee Gordon
#1

Posted: September 29, 2017, 2:05 PM Post
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I'm going to throw Dee Gordon out there as a potential 2B for 2018 (and beyond).

I'm generally not a big fan of players like Gordon - their premium skill (speed) often gets them overrated. However, let's take a look at the guy:

1. You would have to look past his 2016 suspension for PEDs. The substances were exogenous testosterone and clostebol. Gordon said he didn't knowingly take them -- but that's what they all say. That said, taking him on is a risk because of this.

2. He is due $38M over the next 3 years (plus $14M in 2021 with a $1M buyout).

3. Is 29 (turns 30 in April), so while he's not young - he's not old.

4. Hit .306 (2017), .268 (2016 - missed 1/2 season with suspension), .333 (2015 - won batting title) and .289 (2014).

5. Steals lots of bases - 58, 30, 58, 64 - over the past four years.

6. Runs the bases very well - ranked 3rd best baserunner by Fangraphs for 2017 (behind Hamilton and Buxton).

7. Doesn't walk much. His OBP for his career is .323 - although it's around .335-.340 the last few years.

8. No power. He's lucky to get 30-35 XBHs in a season. OPS the last few years is around .715-720.

9. While he's left-handed, he doesn't have big splits - so he can play everyday.

10. Pretty much limited to 2B due to a weak arm.

11. WAR values the last few years: Fangraphs: 3.2, 1.0 (suspension season), 4.9, 3.3 / Baseball-Reference: 2.9, 0.8, 4.9, 2.4. I'm guessing he profiles as a 2.5-3.0 WAR guy - solid, but not great.

If you're willing to take his 2016 stats as an anomaly - where he missed 1/2 the season due to his suspension - he's been a pretty consistent hitter - .290-.300+, gets on base at a .335-.340 clip. While not great, it's pretty good. And while he doesn't have a lot of pop, his speed and consistent bat would be welcome at the top of the order. Not to mention he's considered a good defender.

The contract isn't bad - but it's not good either. There is speculation that Miami may want to unload contracts - and Gordon's would be a prime one to head out the door. Milwaukee probably wouldn't have to trade any premium prospects, plus they could probably get some cash sent back. The three years on the contract is a little long - but Gordon would serve as a stopgap until one of our lower level players - Isan Diaz or Keston Hiura, for instance - were ready. The PED stuff hanging over his head would likely drive down his price as well.

The big scary thing is the PED suspension. If it happens again - that's a year suspension.

If the club acquired Gordon, that would likely spell the end of Villar's tenure.

Like I said to start, I'm just throwing this out for discussion.


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Offline  Re: Dee Gordon
#2

Posted: September 29, 2017, 2:33 PM Post
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reillymcshane said:
8. No power. He's lucky to get 30-35 XBHs in a season. OPS the last few years is around .715-720.

Personally, I wouldn't be opposed to trading for Gordon. He's a great defensive player, and he puts the pressure on the opposition when he gets on base. I quoted #8 because (imo) OPS isn't as important for a lead-off hitter. Having 50+ SBs makes up for the lack of extra base hits.

That contract is a little bit scary though. I can understand trying to sign Walker for two years, or trying the Villar/Sogard for 2018.


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Offline  Re: Dee Gordon
#3

Posted: September 29, 2017, 2:54 PM Post
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I like it.

What about Villar for Gordon straight up with the Brewers eating all salary?


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Online  Re: Dee Gordon
#4

Posted: September 29, 2017, 3:02 PM Post
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I'd much rather sign Walker for a couple of years and keep our prospects.


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Offline  Re: Dee Gordon
#5

Posted: September 29, 2017, 3:13 PM Post
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I'd be opposed to it simply because I don't want to hear/read the constant holier than thou attitudes from people not wanting a "roider" on the team.

Reading over your list, though, I just don't see enough positives. As a speed guy, that part of his game is probably already on the decline. Not a great OBP and no defensive versatility. Not a Stearns guy at all.


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Offline  Re: Dee Gordon
#6

Posted: September 29, 2017, 7:09 PM Post
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Anything roid/PED talk directed at Gordon would never be as bad as Braun so really wouldn't be a big deal at all.


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Offline  Re: Dee Gordon
#7

Posted: September 29, 2017, 9:01 PM Post
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I've thought this made sense as a trade option before we picked up Walker. Stearns kept saying he wanted longer term pieces and thoughts were that Miami wanted to unload contracts and would eat some salary. I wonder if they started discussions that could re-engage this winter. Villar for Gordon and $3-4 milion per year would seem logical to me. Brewers could resign Sogard cheap and have Perez as insurance.


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Offline  Re: Dee Gordon
#8

Posted: September 29, 2017, 11:15 PM Post
Posts: 547
Just a FYI & another name to put into the hopper - Jason Kipnis
Cleveland might be looking to move him during the off season. Jose Ramirez has proven himself to be as good or better than Kipnis defensively at 2B & is under contract at a much more reasonable cost.

Jason had an injury filled 2017 & 2014 but its hard to knock his seasons in 2015 & 2016.


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Online  Re: Dee Gordon
#9

Posted: September 30, 2017, 7:13 AM Post
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I like the Jason Kipnis idea a lot more than Dee Gordon. Only thing is would be giving up prospects for him when we could just sign Walker again but probably for cheaper.

“There's a fine line between being confident and cocky, or overconfident. This is an extremely humbling game. But if you don't believe in yourself, no one else is going to believe in you.”


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Offline  Re: Dee Gordon
#10

Posted: September 30, 2017, 9:02 PM Post
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I agree that Kipnis would be an interesting acquisition.

He will be 31 in April, so not old (buy not young). He has two years left on his contract at $13.67M and $14.67M. Plus there's an option for 2020 at $16.5M, with a $2.5M buyout. Thus he's due a minimum of $31M over the next two years - not cheap.

He's been somewhat erratic throughout his career, producing excellent results in some years - and near replacement level in others (including 2017). Injuries have nagged him a bit (including this past year, when he only played a little more than 1/2 the season).

I guess a lot would come down to how the club views him going forward. Are the injuries a serious issue? Do the see him aging poorly? I guess maybe others who have seen him may have some insight.

I doubt Kipnis would cost a lot - prospect wise. Not with $31M owed to him.


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Offline  Re: Dee Gordon
#11

Posted: October 01, 2017, 4:28 PM Post
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Jed Lowrie in combo with one of the A's younger SP's. I like Jharel Cotton's make up if he can cut down on the BB's. I'm sure several love Manaea, but doubt the A's will move him unless significantly over payed.


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Offline  Re: Dee Gordon
#12

Posted: October 02, 2017, 8:59 AM Post
Posts: 300
I'd steer clear of Dee Gordon just because of the previous PED suspension.

I would like to see Cesar Hernandez from the Phillies at 2b. He is arb eligible in 2018 and free agent in 2021. Phillies have their 3rd ranked prospect, Scott Kingery, who plays 2B raking at AAA this past year. If the Phillies don't want to pay him and play the young guys, I'd love to acquire him. Would be a great lead off man and take over 2B.

Hernandez slash line in 2017 was 294/373/421 and produced 3.3 WAR, 112 OPS+
Plays 2B, 3B and CF, switch hitter and its the prototypical David Stearns guy


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Offline  Re: Dee Gordon
#13

Posted: October 03, 2017, 9:07 AM Post
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I like Gordon, but I'd steer clear because while 30/31 isn't old for most players, I'm not buying 3 years of a 100% speed-based player at age 30 or 31.


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Offline  Re: Dee Gordon
#14

Posted: October 03, 2017, 9:19 AM Post
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bill hAll Star said:
I like Gordon, but I'd steer clear because while 30/31 isn't old for most players, I'm not buying 3 years of a 100% speed-based player at age 30 or 31.


Correct. Example A is Carl Crawford.

The David Stearns era: Controllable Young Talent. Watch the Jedi work his magic!


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Offline  Re: Dee Gordon
#15

Posted: October 03, 2017, 9:23 AM Post
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billymac said:
I'd steer clear of Dee Gordon just because of the previous PED suspension.

I would like to see Cesar Hernandez from the Phillies at 2b. He is arb eligible in 2018 and free agent in 2021. Phillies have their 3rd ranked prospect, Scott Kingery, who plays 2B raking at AAA this past year. If the Phillies don't want to pay him and play the young guys, I'd love to acquire him. Would be a great lead off man and take over 2B.

Hernandez slash line in 2017 was 294/373/421 and produced 3.3 WAR, 112 OPS+
Plays 2B, 3B and CF, switch hitter and its the prototypical David Stearns guy


That's a good shout. Can't say I know much about him, but from a statistical point of view it looks really good. Very consistent numbers between 2016 and 2017 too. Little power, but with a lineup otherwise full of HRs and K's he'd provide some balance. I would imagine that the Phillies might be reluctant to trade him though, he's certainly a player they could use going forward.


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Offline  Re: Dee Gordon
#16

Posted: October 03, 2017, 9:45 AM Post
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I saw an article on ESPN.com that suggested that the Phillies are going to be dangling Hernandez this offseason, but it sounds like they'll be looking for starting pitching in return - so I'm not sure if we match up well with them right now? Would love to find a way to get a guy like Hernandez though.


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Offline  Re: Dee Gordon
#17

Posted: October 03, 2017, 9:52 AM Post
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I'd rather just overpay the heck out of Walker for 2-3 years or Phillips for 1 year plus give Villar a part-time shot than give up anything for Cesar Hernandez. Hiura should be ready in 2 years.


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Offline  Re: Dee Gordon
#18

Posted: October 03, 2017, 6:26 PM Post
Posts: 501
Location: Madison, WI
Too many guys in the second base pipeline. Not a fan of making a 3 year commitment to any veteran second baseman.


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Offline  Re: Dee Gordon
#19

Posted: October 31, 2017, 7:27 AM Post
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Miami Herald is confirming that Marlins want to unload Gordon (along with Stanton and Prado). He's owed $38 million over next 3 seasons. I would think Walker could be had for those kind of dollars but Gordon has been very productive and is younger. I don't put a whole lot of stock in his OPS, because his net stolen bases (SB-CS) essentially adds 46 total bases. I don't see him slipping in 2018 or 2019, and if he doesn't, he could be traded before 2020. Since it's essentially a salary dump, Miami might take Villar off the Brewers hands in return. Plus is he's been a gold glover.


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Offline  Re: Dee Gordon
#20

Posted: October 31, 2017, 8:58 AM Post
Posts: 204
If we were to eat the majority of his salary (if not all of it), what type of package does everyone think that the Marlins would want in return for Gordon? I'm not sure if this is someone we'd even consider making a run at, but I guess I'm just curious as to what it might cost us in prospects? Obviously, he would help immensely at the top of our order and at a position that we struggled at this past year (at least before getting Walker).


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