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Chris Archer

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Offline  Re: Chris Archer
#41

Posted: November 15, 2017, 8:56 AM Post
Posts: 277
Im trying to think why the Rays would want Arcia? They have Willy Adames waiting to take over at SS and Wander Franco, who was the top internation prospect at SS also.


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Offline  Re: Chris Archer
#42

Posted: November 15, 2017, 9:09 AM Post
Posts: 510
Location: Madison, WI
Orlando Arcia isn't going anywhere. Proven MLB everyday player with considerable upside under control for 5 years and 2 of those years at near minimum salary pay.

Agree with the previous post, Rays also have top prospect Willie Adames ready to play shortstop in the majors. While Arcia would have value to any major league franchise, the Rays would likely be less interested in him than most teams. It doesn't make much sense for Arcia to head there. I think their DH spot is open, but who wants a young shortstop DH'ing? I've seen comments the Rays don't need an outfielder, but they only have 4 outfielders on their 40 man roster and picking up another young outfielder will fill a 25 man spot and could end up filling the DH spot (likely one of their current outfielders moves into that spot). Corey Dickerson had by far the most DH at-bats for the Rays (55 games, 229 at bats) so if he sees more time there it definitely opens up playing time for another outfielder.

On the last page I thought the swap would be something like Archer for Lewis Brinson/Luis Ortiz/Isan Diaz. Now I think the Brewers would have to swap out Luis Ortiz and insert Brandon Woodruff instead. With Cobb out and potentially Odorizzi out too, it's hard for me to believe the Rays would move Archer and not get an immediate rotation arm back in the deal. Maybe Davies instead? But I would think the Rays would rather gamble on 6 years of Woodruff rather than take the safer route with Davies for 4 years.

Personally, I'm not big on an Archer acquisition. It sucks because the Brewers do have a gap and appear to be short on pitching in 2018. But with Burnes and Ortiz right around the corner, and hopefully Nelson back at full strength in 2019, I'm more for bridging the gap with cheaper options in 2018 rather than making a big-splash type trade.


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Offline  Re: Chris Archer
#43

Posted: November 15, 2017, 10:21 AM Post
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Location: California
I just don't think the Brewers are at the point in the build that they should be dealing the top end prospects for Archer. If they somehow could get him for Brinson and say Diplan, then do it. However, I am interested in the Brewers sustaining winning for seasons and that only occurs through depth in the system.


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Offline  Re: Chris Archer
#44

Posted: November 15, 2017, 10:30 AM Post
Posts: 301
I don't think its a good idea right now, I just don't see him as an ace that we'd have to pony up to get him for. I think you can spend some money and get 2 quality SP's and 1-2 quality RP's right now. If we are in contention mid season, that is when I would pull the trigger on a trade if we are looking for a starting pitcher. If you got 2 of Lynn/Chatwood/Cobb without giving away any prospects, the club is in much better shape come deadline time.


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Online  Re: Chris Archer
#45

Posted: November 15, 2017, 11:22 AM Post
Posts: 10221
JosephC said:
Orlando Arcia isn't going anywhere. Proven MLB everyday player with considerable upside under control for 5 years and 2 of those years at near minimum salary pay.


Orlando Arcia probably isn't going anywhere, but I'm of the belief that we should always be open to every possibility, because sometimes surprising opportunities present themselves unexpectedly.

I'm sure most Brewer fans didn't think Alcides Escobar was going anywhere after 2010.


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Offline  Re: Chris Archer
#46

Posted: November 15, 2017, 11:50 AM Post
Posts: 3648
JosephC said:
Orlando Arcia isn't going anywhere. Proven MLB everyday player with considerable upside under control for 5 years and 2 of those years at near minimum salary pay.

Agree with the previous post, Rays also have top prospect Willie Adames ready to play shortstop in the majors. While Arcia would have value to any major league franchise, the Rays would likely be less interested in him than most teams. It doesn't make much sense for Arcia to head there. I think their DH spot is open, but who wants a young shortstop DH'ing? I've seen comments the Rays don't need an outfielder, but they only have 4 outfielders on their 40 man roster and picking up another young outfielder will fill a 25 man spot and could end up filling the DH spot (likely one of their current outfielders moves into that spot). Corey Dickerson had by far the most DH at-bats for the Rays (55 games, 229 at bats) so if he sees more time there it definitely opens up playing time for another outfielder.

On the last page I thought the swap would be something like Archer for Lewis Brinson/Luis Ortiz/Isan Diaz. Now I think the Brewers would have to swap out Luis Ortiz and insert Brandon Woodruff instead. With Cobb out and potentially Odorizzi out too, it's hard for me to believe the Rays would move Archer and not get an immediate rotation arm back in the deal. Maybe Davies instead? But I would think the Rays would rather gamble on 6 years of Woodruff rather than take the safer route with Davies for 4 years.

Personally, I'm not big on an Archer acquisition. It sucks because the Brewers do have a gap and appear to be short on pitching in 2018. But with Burnes and Ortiz right around the corner, and hopefully Nelson back at full strength in 2019, I'm more for bridging the gap with cheaper options in 2018 rather than making a big-splash type trade.


To the bolded part, that was my suggestion without Woodruff, because the Brewer needs are filling out a 5man rotation. Woodruff I see as #5 in that equation give or take #4 depending on how we deal with Hader. So, including Woodruff in the deal would lead to another hole to plug. I'd just think Stearns would make a hard line on that with the knowledge to Tampa that swapping Woodruff/Ortiz at this moment is in the prospect world even only Ortiz is younger with potentially higher ceiling. Tampa would be nitpicking on essentially just 1.3 seasons away over currently ready in missing on this deal, which for Milwaukee is a deal made to improve for 2018 season and Tampa to improve it's Future.


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Offline  Re: Chris Archer
#47

Posted: November 15, 2017, 1:12 PM Post
Posts: 1114
Why is the world would the Brewers trade Davies in an Archer deal. That kind of defeats the purpose of trading for him doesn't it. I'm going to stop before I say something unfriendly to a fellow posters [smile]


Brewers are very high on Dubon. Arcia's defense is NOT elite


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Offline  Re: Chris Archer
#48

Posted: November 15, 2017, 1:49 PM Post
Posts: 915
Arcia's defense is not elite? He had a pretty high E total, but he's got all the tools to be perhaps the best in the league.


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Offline  Re: Chris Archer
#49

Posted: November 15, 2017, 2:32 PM Post
Posts: 759
Location: New Berlin, WI
KCBrewerfan34 said:
Why is the world would the Brewers trade Davies in an Archer deal. That kind of defeats the purpose of trading for him doesn't it. I'm going to stop before I say something unfriendly to a fellow posters [smile]


Brewers are very high on Dubon. Arcia's defense is NOT elite


Well not really actually. Davies could easily be included in a trade for Archer. I don't think we would do that, but it isn't impossible. In reality I don't think Archer ends up moving, and if he does it's going to be for a mega-haul. A team like the Rays won't trade a #2 caliber starting pitcher on a team friendly deal with 4 years of team control for a mediocre-above average package. The Chris Sale package is likely what they are targeting, not the Gray package or the Quintana package. If they don't get it, might as well keep him and improve elsewhere.


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Offline  Re: Chris Archer
#50

Posted: November 15, 2017, 2:41 PM Post
Posts: 1114
PlayerHader said:
Arcia's defense is not elite? He had a pretty high E total, but he's got all the tools to be perhaps the best in the league.



I've seen articles were Arcia's defense (and reputation) are overrated so pick you poison but your statement "but he's got all the tools" to be perhaps the best in the league" is based on what?

Swanson and Arcia had 20 errors each, next guy had 12 please elaborate on the tools. Thanks.


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Offline  Re: Chris Archer
#51

Posted: November 15, 2017, 2:57 PM Post
Posts: 759
Location: New Berlin, WI
KCBrewerfan34 said:
PlayerHader said:
Arcia's defense is not elite? He had a pretty high E total, but he's got all the tools to be perhaps the best in the league.



I've seen articles were Arcia's defense (and reputation) are overrated so pick you poison but your statement "but he's got all the tools" to be perhaps the best in the league" is based on what?

Swanson and Arcia had 20 errors each, next guy had 12 please elaborate on the tools. Thanks.


https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Wix-5EpqXVo - we can start there on tools.

He has plus glove, plus range, plus arm, double plus instincts...he's a natural shortstop that can make every highlight reel play and then some. The E total relates to consistency, which is something he needs to work on for sure. Also relates to him being able to get to balls that many SS wouldn't dream of making a play on...see example above. He's also 22. He'll grow into his position and get more consistent, the Brewers are clearly banking on it.


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Offline  Re: Chris Archer
#52

Posted: November 15, 2017, 4:19 PM Post
Posts: 1114
KeithStone53151 said:
KCBrewerfan34 said:
PlayerHader said:
Arcia's defense is not elite? He had a pretty high E total, but he's got all the tools to be perhaps the best in the league.



I've seen articles were Arcia's defense (and reputation) are overrated so pick you poison but your statement "but he's got all the tools" to be perhaps the best in the league" is based on what?

Swanson and Arcia had 20 errors each, next guy had 12 please elaborate on the tools. Thanks.


https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Wix-5EpqXVo - we can start there on tools.

He has plus glove, plus range, plus arm, double plus instincts...he's a natural shortstop that can make every highlight reel play and then some. The E total relates to consistency, which is something he needs to work on for sure. Also relates to him being able to get to balls that many SS wouldn't dream of making a play on...see example above. He's also 22. He'll grow into his position and get more consistent, the Brewers are clearly banking on it.



Everybody has a highlight reel and there are a lot of great SS's in the majors. Almost everybody on this team is available in the right deal if the haul is enough. Arcia brings a top line starter and the Brew take a shot at Cozart, problem solved. whether you like Dubon or not he is another option.

If people aren't believing the 86-76 I get it but if you do think this team is that good now is exactly the right time to go get a big time starter, depending on the price.


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Offline  Re: Chris Archer
#53

Posted: November 16, 2017, 12:59 PM Post
Posts: 239
KeithStone53151 said:
KCBrewerfan34 said:
Why is the world would the Brewers trade Davies in an Archer deal. That kind of defeats the purpose of trading for him doesn't it. I'm going to stop before I say something unfriendly to a fellow posters [smile]


Well not really actually. Davies could easily be included in a trade for Archer. I don't think we would do that, but it isn't impossible.


We'd be giving up a 110 ERA+ pitcher with 4 years of team control as well as some other assets, for a 108 ERA+ pitcher with 4 years of team control but who is 5 years older and is more expensive. And we'd still have a hole in the rotation. ERA doesn't tell the whole story of course, in a 1-for-1 trade I'd still take Archer, but any trade like this would require far more in terms of prospects than the difference between them warrants. But again, the main thing is that we'd have the same # of proven Major League starters on the roster after the trade as we did before. So another one needs to be found. If we're trading for a major league starter, it should be for prospects or major league position players.

You're technically correct (The best kind of correct) of course; it's not actually impossible. But it's never, ever happening.


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Offline  Re: Chris Archer
#54

Posted: November 16, 2017, 1:45 PM Post
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Posts: 697
Location: La Crosse
Lathund said:
KeithStone53151 said:
KCBrewerfan34 said:
Why is the world would the Brewers trade Davies in an Archer deal. That kind of defeats the purpose of trading for him doesn't it. I'm going to stop before I say something unfriendly to a fellow posters [smile]


Well not really actually. Davies could easily be included in a trade for Archer. I don't think we would do that, but it isn't impossible.


We'd be giving up a 110 ERA+ pitcher with 4 years of team control as well as some other assets, for a 108 ERA+ pitcher with 4 years of team control but who is 5 years older and is more expensive. And we'd still have a hole in the rotation. ERA doesn't tell the whole story of course, in a 1-for-1 trade I'd still take Archer, but any trade like this would require far more in terms of prospects than the difference between them warrants. But again, the main thing is that we'd have the same # of proven Major League starters on the roster after the trade as we did before. So another one needs to be found. If we're trading for a major league starter, it should be for prospects or major league position players.

You're technically correct (The best kind of correct) of course; it's not actually impossible. But it's never, ever happening.

Agreed. If the Brewers are trading for Archer, they will not be trading away their second best SP at the moment. Even with Nelson healthy, it'd be hard to imagine Davies getting traded.


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Offline  Re: Chris Archer
#55

Posted: November 16, 2017, 2:14 PM Post
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Total errors is misleading unless you know total chances. If a guy has 1 error in 10 chances he's not a better defender than a guy who had 5 errors in 100 chances. Even knowing that you aren't getting the whole picture.

"Dustin Pedroia doesn't have the strength or bat speed to hit major-league pitching consistently, and he has no power......He probably has a future as a backup infielder if he can stop rolling over to third base and shortstop." Keith Law, 2006


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Offline  Re: Chris Archer
#56

Posted: November 16, 2017, 8:20 PM Post
Posts: 510
Location: Madison, WI
I agree that I wouldn't trade Woodruff or Davies in a deal for another starter because as has been stated, it's just opening a hole and then spending resources to fill that hole. But this is Chris Archer. He's a hot name, has some eye-popping numbers, has youth and an extremely attractive contract. Would have to think that the Rays would get at least a half dozen big offers for him (at least 100 million in surplus value) and then they could pick whatever package would be the best fit for them. And if they deal Odorizzi as well, they would only be left with Blake Snell, Matt Andriese (only 17 starts last year), Jacob Faria, Brent Honeywell (0 MLB innings) and Jose De Leon (19 2/3 MLB innings). If that happens, odds are overwhelming that a deal which includes an immediate rotation piece would end up being the most attractive. And I don't think they would be all that hot for Brent Suter. But if they keep Odorizzi, that definitely would change things.


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Offline  Re: Chris Archer
#57

Posted: November 18, 2017, 7:10 AM Post
Posts: 10792
Archer is the definition of overrated. He's not a number 1 starter. He lacks the stamina of a top flight starter which is why he's 8 games under .500 for his career. The Rays keep waiting and wanting him to be that guy who gives them 7 quality innings, and they leave him in games which he ultimately loses. His 7th inning ERA last year was 10.03 and that wasn't all the pen as the OPS against was a whopping 1.146 in the 7th.

He'd be great on a team with a very deep bullpen, but the Rays want ace value back for him. No thanks.


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Offline  Re: Chris Archer
#58

Posted: November 18, 2017, 9:34 AM Post
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I think if Archer was 27 I'd be much more inclined to try and nab him but at 29 he has a lot of innings under his belt. I feel like he wastes a lot of pitches which is why he can't go deeper in games. That plus the Rays would continually throw him out there in the 7th inning after he was already at 100 pitches (the is anecdotal on my part. I followed him quite a bit last year). I have no idea if someone tracks pitching performance by pitch count but I'd venture that Archer was really bad after he hit 100 pitches.

Since Matt Arnold came from TB he knows Archer inside and out. Brewers will make an informed decision one way or the other.

"Dustin Pedroia doesn't have the strength or bat speed to hit major-league pitching consistently, and he has no power......He probably has a future as a backup infielder if he can stop rolling over to third base and shortstop." Keith Law, 2006


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Offline  Re: Chris Archer
#59

Posted: November 18, 2017, 9:36 AM Post
Posts: 277
Monte/Ortiz/Supak for Archer

Doubt that gets it done, but.....


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Offline  Re: Chris Archer
#60

Posted: November 19, 2017, 11:32 AM Post
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Posts: 6381
mlloyd10 said:
Monte/Ortiz/Supak for Archer

Doubt that gets it done, but.....


NO thanks!

Trading Harrison in any package that does not get us an ACE is a silly proposition imo...I am not on the Archer or Cobb train, they just aren't going to be difference makers, in that they can get us over the hump to a playoff appearance. Trading away our future for either guy is just not smart.


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