LambeauLeap1250 WSSP


  
 [ 9 posts ]  New Topic   Add Reply

Jason Hammel

Author Message
Offline  Jason Hammel
#1

Posted: November 12, 2017, 11:46 AM Post
Posts: 501
Location: Madison, WI
Another potential trade-low candidate. I don't know what the Royals intentions are at this time but they were a sub-.500 team last year, are facing huge free agent losses and just might have the weakest minor league system in all of baseball. Looks like time for a re-build.

Hammel was pretty bad last year. 5.29 ERA, 1.43 WHIP, 4.37 FIP, 4.92 xFIP. However, the previous two years he had a 3.79 ERA, 1.18 WHIP, 4.08 FIP, 105 ERA+. His fastball velocity is still sitting in the 92's.

Average year over the last three seasons would be 31 starts, 172 2/3 innings, 4.31 ERA, 1.27 WHIP, 96 ERA+, 4.18 FIP, 9.0 H/9, 1.3 HR/9, 2.5 BB/9, 8.0 K/9. 2018 will be his age 36 season. He's at the point where he could see a rapid decline, and it's possible that last year was the first year of that, but I wouldn't be surprised if his 2018 would be like the average of his last three season...30+ starts and an ERA in the low to mid 4's. If that's his projection, I think he's a decent pitcher for the Brewers to target by trade.

He will make 9 million in 2018 and then has a mutual option year for 2019, 12 million with a 2 million buyout. Easy assumption is that this will end up being a 1 year, 11 million dollar contract with 9 million paid in 2018 and 2 million paid in 2019. Hammel has been an average 1.7 WAR player between Fangraphs and Baseball Reference over the last three seasons. Assuming he's a 1.7 WAR player in 2018 that would put his value at 15.572 million, subtract out the 11 million he will make and he has roughly 4.5 million in surplus value. That is equivalent to one "role-player" prospect or two "fringe-player" prospects. I'm not sure the option year in 2019 factors into the equation. It's for 12 million and after figuring in some regression in his age 37 season it would likely wipe out any surplus value he would have at a 12 million dollar price-tag. I really doubt the price on the trade market would be that much higher considering his age and the fact that he just wasn't very good last year. It becomes a matter if the Royals want to trade him for a low price and dump his salary or if they figure they need his experience to eat up innings. One of the "role player" prospects that could head to Kansas City would be Taylor Jungmann or Jorge Lopez (I would think the Royals would prefer Jungmann), and the Royals could just stick that player into their rotation with a "sink-or-swim" attitude for the first couple months as the substitute for losing Hammel.


 Top
 
Quote   Reply 
Online  Re: Jason Hammel
#2

Posted: November 12, 2017, 3:18 PM Post
User avatar
Posts: 17021
Yes, I would love to piss away over $10 million on average at best.

Cards' fans wear jorts.


 Top
 
Quote   Reply 
Online  Re: Jason Hammel
#3

Posted: November 12, 2017, 6:15 PM Post
User avatar
Posts: 6375
why, WHY?


 Top
 
Quote   Reply 
Online  Re: Jason Hammel
#4

Posted: November 12, 2017, 6:20 PM Post
User avatar
Posts: 1252
Why not just start Jungmann ourselves if you're interested in tossing out a mediocre pitcher??


 Top
 
Quote   Reply 
Offline  Re: Jason Hammel
#5

Posted: November 12, 2017, 6:59 PM Post
Posts: 214
trwi7 said:
Yes, I would love to piss away over $10 million on average at best.


Laugh my F A Off!!!! And X2 as well!!!


 Top
 
Quote   Reply 
Offline  Re: Jason Hammel
#6

Posted: November 12, 2017, 10:27 PM Post
Posts: 10780
Is Hammel any better than say Mike Fiers who'll likely be non-tendered by the Astros? Fiers could likely be had for a third of the cost of Hammel on contract that's not fully guaranteed. Bringing in a bounce back candidate or two is not a bad idea, but wait and see who's out there after the big money is spent.


 Top
 
Quote   Reply 
Offline  Re: Jason Hammel
#7

Posted: November 13, 2017, 8:10 AM Post
Posts: 1110
I guess this board is so used to losing and us pissing away money going back to the Jeffrey Hammonds signing this is where we set our sights. Hell no!!!!! we have $40-$60 million to spend and I'm supremely confident Stearns will use that money wisely. He might not spend all of it this year but this guy knows what he's doing. If he's going to spend $10 million on somebody it isn't going to be for a mediocre or average innings eater IMHO.


In Stearns I TRUST!!!!


Last edited by KCBrewerfan34 on November 13, 2017, 2:05 PM, edited 1 time in total.

 Top
 
Quote   Reply 
Online  Re: Jason Hammel
#8

Posted: November 13, 2017, 9:52 AM Post
User avatar
Global Moderator
Posts: 5436
I would steer clear of Hammel.

I can understand why someone would suggest the guy. He was pretty solid from 2014-16 - 3.50-3.90 ERA. And his FIP last year wasn't terrible (4.37 compared to his 5.29 ERA). But you could see he was losing effectiveness even in 2016. His ERA spiked in the 2nd half of the year - and he just wasn't that good. That the Cubs were willing to buy out his option year for $2M (instead of taking the $10M option) was kind of telling about how they felt about the guy.

Now he's 35 years old. His performance has faltered for two years running -- it just doesn't seem like it's going to turn out well for the guy. Plus, he gives up a lot of HRs - Miller Park might not be kind to him.


 Top
 
Quote   Reply 
Offline  Re: Jason Hammel
#9

Posted: November 13, 2017, 1:19 PM Post
User avatar
Posts: 1300
I get the suggestion, but something is up with him (not even a velocity dip so far). Maybe he's just a guy that gives up more medium/hard hit balls in the juiced ball era. That and a decreased K%.

I do agree that these are interesting guys to look at as buy low candidates while we have short-term $ and want rotation depth. It was the same reason I argued for Verlander at the deadline (if it was the assumed salary dump at the time). I'd love a salary dump trade because you get the older pitcher with less years of commitment...but the upside does not seem to be there for Hammel.


 Top
 
Quote   Reply 
Display posts from previous:  Sort by  
 [ 9 posts ]  New Topic   Add Reply
  


Who is online

Users browsing this forum: billymac, Bnowell4evr, brewerfan17, MillerParkSouth, patrickgpe and 28 guests

You cannot post new topics in this forum
You cannot reply to topics in this forum
You cannot edit your posts in this forum
You cannot delete your posts in this forum
You cannot post attachments in this forum

Search this forum (phpBB search):
Jump to:  
Search entire board (Google search):
Google
Powered by phpBB® Forum Software © phpBB Group
Test