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Jake Arrieta

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Online  Re: Jake Arrieta
Posted: January 11, 2018, 1:24 PM Post
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bill hAll Star said:
Eye Black at Night said:
I agree with those that said we are a little jaded, the Brewers might have the single worst track record with free agents of any team in baseball.


I think this analysis is basically due to the fact that we're Brewers fans and watch them every day and tend to get angry at our own signings when they aren't so good.

I am guilty here of two things, I didn't really expound on what I meant, and I was certainly overstating it. There are plenty of teams that have had much, much worse free agent signings than the Brewers. Maybe this is more a byproduct of the lack of total number of free agent they have signed, but the Brewers don't seem to have many cases of "good" free agent signings. There are certainly cases like Mike Cameron and Aramis Ramirez that turned out mostly positive, but it seems like other teams have had more success with signing free agents that provided value. Recently it seems like they have actually had more success in non-traditional free agent channels with players like Nori Aoki and Eric Thames.

You are correct though, being a fan that closely follows one team, and merely a causal observer of all others, makes it difficult to make an accurate assertion without any actual analysis.


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Offline  Re: Jake Arrieta
Posted: January 11, 2018, 1:31 PM Post
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bill hAll Star said:

And if Chris Archer gives you 10 wins a year at his 4.2 mill salary, that should imply Arrieta should give you 50+ wins a year for his 25 mil a year.


And a couple of notes on this quote:

1. Archer's salary is going up towards 10 million in coming years.

2. You might be trading 3 guys that will provide you 3-5 wins (WAR) for $600k a few years from now to acquire Archer. To acquire Arrieta, you just pay the inflated cost and give up a supplemental draft pick.


Not to mention, where are you getting 10 wins? I can't find a publication that has a season any higher than 5.2 for Archer.


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Offline  Re: Jake Arrieta
Posted: January 11, 2018, 1:55 PM Post
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I see a lot of people are already trying to talk themselves into Arrieta just in case the Brewers sign him............

I hate the Cubs. I hope they die.


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Offline  Re: Jake Arrieta
Posted: January 11, 2018, 1:58 PM Post
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Oldcity said:
bill hAll Star said:

And if Chris Archer gives you 10 wins a year at his 4.2 mill salary, that should imply Arrieta should give you 50+ wins a year for his 25 mil a year.


And a couple of notes on this quote:

1. Archer's salary is going up towards 10 million in coming years.

2. You might be trading 3 guys that will provide you 3-5 wins (WAR) for $600k a few years from now to acquire Archer. To acquire Arrieta, you just pay the inflated cost and give up a supplemental draft pick.


Not to mention, where are you getting 10 wins? I can't find a publication that has a season any higher than 5.2 for Archer.


Well he had 10 wins last year so I am guessing that is what he is referring to.


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Offline  Re: Jake Arrieta
Posted: January 11, 2018, 2:10 PM Post
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Eye Black at Night said:
bill hAll Star said:
Eye Black at Night said:
I agree with those that said we are a little jaded, the Brewers might have the single worst track record with free agents of any team in baseball.


I think this analysis is basically due to the fact that we're Brewers fans and watch them every day and tend to get angry at our own signings when they aren't so good.

I am guilty here of two things, I didn't really expound on what I meant, and I was certainly overstating it. There are plenty of teams that have had much, much worse free agent signings than the Brewers. Maybe this is more a byproduct of the lack of total number of free agent they have signed, but the Brewers don't seem to have many cases of "good" free agent signings. There are certainly cases like Mike Cameron and Aramis Ramirez that turned out mostly positive, but it seems like other teams have had more success with signing free agents that provided value. Recently it seems like they have actually had more success in non-traditional free agent channels with players like Nori Aoki and Eric Thames.

You are correct though, being a fan that closely follows one team, and merely a causal observer of all others, makes it difficult to make an accurate assertion without any actual analysis.


Yeah, that is much more of a correct point. I will say, though, that I think people's opinions of Garza, Wolf, Suppan, etc. all need to be taken with a lens on what we had.

In the Suppan/Wolf days, we were trying to compete and while Suppan was basically, decent, decent, terrible in his few years, he was covering up for...Manny Parra coming up early? I'm not even sure who else would've pitched. Same with Wolf. Claudio Vargas was in the rotation in those years.

Garza/Lohse, we were in the twilight of competitive years, but we once again had minimal pitching depth in our system. Some of those years, the #5 starter was Chris Narveson.

In Garza's injured/bad years, we were rebuilding anyways. While those resources maybe could've gone to something better, the payroll was very low. I'm not saying that I'm glad that we threw $30 million away in a few seasons/parts of seasons for Garza, but I don't think it was prohibitive of the Brewers going out and getting another piece to win a World Series. Yes, they could have been developing other talent or spending that money on other pieces of development, but it is what it is.


Last edited by bill hAll Star on January 11, 2018, 2:44 PM, edited 1 time in total.

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Offline  Re: Jake Arrieta
Posted: January 11, 2018, 2:33 PM Post
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HighHeat19 said:
And if Chris Archer gives you 10 wins a year at his 4.2 mill salary, that should imply Arrieta should give you 50+ wins a year for his 25 mil a year.

I get what you're saying here, but that's not how things work in many cases.

First, Archer's salary is tied to a salary structure that by its nature will deflate his pay. Arrieta is a free agent - and is more guided by true market forces than a pre-determined payroll structure. And it should be noted that Archer costs a lot to acquire - not necessarily in money - but it other assets. Arrieta's acquisition cost is money (and a forfeited draft pick).

Second, premium performance often commands premium pricing. You only have 25 guys on a roster. A club wants to have the best possible team. A team of 25 average players gets you average results. So players who are better than average often command much more money due to their scarcity. A 4 WAR player is much, much rarer than a 2 WAR player. There might be an available pool of ten 2.0 WAR players - but only two 4.0 players. The 4.0 WAR guys don't just get twice the 2.0 guys - they can command 3 or 4 or 5 times that value due to their scarcity. Those guys move the needle for a team from average to above average - and thus cost more.

Now, is Arrieta a 'premium' pitcher? That's a good question. There's support for both sides. I'm honestly not sure. But the Brewers appear to be looking at adding a premium level pitcher - and those higher level guys simply cost a lot more on the open market.


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Offline  Re: Jake Arrieta
Posted: January 11, 2018, 3:30 PM Post
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cubsdie said:
I see a lot of people are already trying to talk themselves into Arrieta just in case the Brewers sign him............



**guilty**


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Online  Re: Jake Arrieta
Posted: January 11, 2018, 4:29 PM Post
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I saw something today on score saying Arrietta has offers from 6 teams including the Cubs and Brewers. 3 and 4 year deals.


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Online  Re: Jake Arrieta
Posted: January 11, 2018, 4:40 PM Post
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markedman5 said:
I saw something today on score saying Arrietta has offers from 6 teams including the Cubs and Brewers. 3 and 4 year deals.

Yes, Post #114 has the article link for the original report and the relevant text copy and pasted.


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Offline  Re: Jake Arrieta
Posted: January 11, 2018, 4:58 PM Post
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reillymcshane said:
HighHeat19 said:
And if Chris Archer gives you 10 wins a year at his 4.2 mill salary, that should imply Arrieta should give you 50+ wins a year for his 25 mil a year.

I get what you're saying here, but that's not how things work in many cases.

First, Archer's salary is tied to a salary structure that by its nature will deflate his pay. Arrieta is a free agent - and is more guided by true market forces than a pre-determined payroll structure. And it should be noted that Archer costs a lot to acquire - not necessarily in money - but it other assets. Arrieta's acquisition cost is money (and a forfeited draft pick).

Second, premium performance often commands premium pricing. You only have 25 guys on a roster. A club wants to have the best possible team. A team of 25 average players gets you average results. So players who are better than average often command much more money due to their scarcity. A 4 WAR player is much, much rarer than a 2 WAR player. There might be an available pool of ten 2.0 WAR players - but only two 4.0 players. The 4.0 WAR guys don't just get twice the 2.0 guys - they can command 3 or 4 or 5 times that value due to their scarcity. Those guys move the needle for a team from average to above average - and thus cost more.

Now, is Arrieta a 'premium' pitcher? That's a good question. There's support for both sides. I'm honestly not sure. But the Brewers appear to be looking at adding a premium level pitcher - and those higher level guys simply cost a lot more on the open market.


My argument is that Arrieta is NOT a premium pitcher. I'm not against the Brewers getting him, but not for the price.


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Offline  Re: Jake Arrieta
Posted: January 11, 2018, 7:31 PM Post
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Arrieta will most likely be an albatross wherever he goes. I will be furious if it is the Brewers. I say that because I believe he was pitching injured last season. Lots of guys will go on fumes in their free agent season in an attempt to cash in, look at how Garza pitched with a torn labrium. I'd be willing to bet that whatever team signs him will be paying at least a million a start over the length of the contract.... could be far worse than that.


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Offline  Re: Jake Arrieta
Posted: January 11, 2018, 7:47 PM Post
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HighHeat19 said:

My argument is that Arrieta is NOT a premium pitcher. I'm not against the Brewers getting him, but not for the price.


Exactly. If he was considered a premium pitcher, the Brewers wouldn't even be players and he would have signed with a big market team long ago. Does anybody think that Kershaw, Kluber, etc. would still be trolling for offers in mid-January?


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Offline  Re: Jake Arrieta
Posted: January 11, 2018, 9:03 PM Post
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There's seems to be a new strategy put in place by some teams in regards to pitching and especially the Astro's and now David Stearns who is a cut from the Astro's cloth. And my opinion is that this strategy is to roll with your cost effective pitching staff and then get by with your in season cheap FA's as well as minor league spot starts.

If your team looks to be a contender you make a move mid-season that will revolve around a seasoned starter that only has a few years remaining or can be had for lesser assets because they are usually pitchers who signed albatross contracts that the holding (out of contention) team wants to rid themselves of. See Justin Verlander.

I would rather see the Brewers go this route as well and if they are in contention. I could easily see a trade for a Zack Greinke or Johnny Cueto, etc. if their pitching slightly above average. And since these guys are not all world prospects their price in prospects can be relevant to the amount of salary to be eaten by their former team. (Some may argue Sonny Gray here, but Sonny's contract and age were not much of a negative. The A's FO would of prolly been fine if they weren't able to trade him)

BTW, Verlander was sent for Houston's #3, #9 & #11 prospects who were rated lower than the Brewers at that time. At this time, this slots to be Ortiz, Dubon, and Peralta. Verlander was 10-8 with an ERA of 3.82 and 176 K's to 176 innings pitched. Detroit also ate $10 mil of his $28 mil salary for at least 2017. Verlander than gave the Astros 5 straight wins, an ERA of 1.06 and 40 K's in 34 innings pitched. As well as a World Series title.

Greinke's numbers at the all star break were pretty close to Verlander's at the all star break last year. Due to Greinkes higher salary and longer years. It may even cost less than what the Astros gave up to acquire Verlander. Also, the Brewers #3, 9, and 11 rated prospects were rated higher than the Astro's. This also has to assume that the Diamondbacks are out of it.

Now it doesn't have to be Greinke, but any veteran who falls into that Verlander stat/salary profile. Plus you are getting a pitcher who you know where they are physiologically since a July trade will put them within a week of their last start. Right now, who really knows where Arrieta's arm is at.


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Offline  Re: Jake Arrieta
Posted: January 11, 2018, 9:45 PM Post
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HighHeat19 said:
There's seems to be a new strategy put in place by some teams in regards to pitching and especially the Astro's and now David Stearns who is a cut from the Astro's cloth. And my opinion is that this strategy is to roll with your cost effective pitching staff and then get by with your in season cheap FA's as well as minor league spot starts.

If your team looks to be a contender you make a move mid-season that will revolve around a seasoned starter that only has a few years remaining or can be had for lesser assets because they are usually pitchers who signed albatross contracts that the holding (out of contention) team wants to rid themselves of. See Justin Verlander.

I would rather see the Brewers go this route as well and if they are in contention. I could easily see a trade for a Zack Greinke or Johnny Cueto, etc. if their pitching slightly above average. And since these guys are not all world prospects their price in prospects can be relevant to the amount of salary to be eaten by their former team. (Some may argue Sonny Gray here, but Sonny's contract and age were not much of a negative. The A's FO would of prolly been fine if they weren't able to trade him)

BTW, Verlander was sent for Houston's #3, #9 & #11 prospects who were rated lower than the Brewers at that time. At this time, this slots to be Ortiz, Dubon, and Peralta. Verlander was 10-8 with an ERA of 3.82 and 176 K's to 176 innings pitched. Detroit also ate $10 mil of his $28 mil salary for at least 2017. Verlander than gave the Astros 5 straight wins, an ERA of 1.06 and 40 K's in 34 innings pitched. As well as a World Series title.

Greinke's numbers at the all star break were pretty close to Verlander's at the all star break last year. Due to Greinkes higher salary and longer years. It may even cost less than what the Astros gave up to acquire Verlander. Also, the Brewers #3, 9, and 11 rated prospects were rated higher than the Astro's. This also has to assume that the Diamondbacks are out of it.

Now it doesn't have to be Greinke, but any veteran who falls into that Verlander stat/salary profile. Plus you are getting a pitcher who you know where they are physiologically since a July trade will put them within a week of their last start. Right now, who really knows where Arrieta's arm is at.

I think you're right about this kind of thing. And not just pitching. I think it's anything of need.

But I think the key thing is giving the team financial flexibility going into the season. It's why I'm good with passing on a guy like Arrieta. Yes, it's a risk going with an unknown guy, but if the season progresses well, then you look to make a move. We have a lot of prospect capital that will be of interest to teams. As you noted, the Astros did that with Verlander - and he was a huge addition.

I'm not saying no to an Arrieta - but I'm wary at the price being bandied about.


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Offline  Re: Jake Arrieta
Posted: January 11, 2018, 10:37 PM Post
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Signing an over 30 year old regression candidate to a big money contract when much of your team is a regression candidate themselves is about the most unalytics thing you can do.

This is the opposite of collecting young controllable talent.


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Offline  Re: Jake Arrieta
Posted: January 11, 2018, 10:47 PM Post
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Boomer5 said:
Signing an over 30 year old regression candidate to a big money contract when much of your team is a regression candidate themselves is about the most unalytics thing you can do.

This is the opposite of collecting young controllable talent.


You are about half correct. Signing Arrieta is absolutely the opposite of acquiring young controllable talent. But it's been refuted in other threads that much of the team is a regression candidate. Far more players likely to improve in 2018 than regress.


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Offline  Re: Jake Arrieta
Posted: January 11, 2018, 10:55 PM Post
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Aren't "over 30" and "regression candidate" pretty much synonymous?

In a lot of people's minds here, it seems the answer is an unequivocal "yes." But not every guy regresses as soon as he hits 30. "Regression candidate" isn't the same as "diminished production" until the latter actually happens, and every player's different, so there's no guarantee when that decline will begin for any specific player.

I get the fears and I understand production trends vs. age. But really, what potential Brewers FA contract offer/signing doesn't result in most hard-core Brewers fans (or at least BF.net posters) forecasting Doom & Gloom and doing their best Chicken Little, preaching to any who will listen that the sky's falling faster than ever . . . . before the ink's even dry on the guy's contract?

For a team like the Brewers to swim in that pool, they need to be very shrewd about it. For as much as many here seem to have Melvin-years trepidation about signing Arrieta, I'm willing to give Stearns and his slant on things a little more slack because (for obvious reasons) he has yet to prove he'll make the same "regret by the contract's end" decisions.


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Offline  Re: Jake Arrieta
Posted: January 12, 2018, 2:31 AM Post
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[url][http://www.fangraphs.com/statss.aspx?playerid=4153&position=Purl]

Figured Arrieta would be too pricey to be signed by Milw realistically but since we're among the "teams interested" I'll chime in against it and Fangraphs link above will show why.

Arrieta's 2 best seasons according to FG came with a 50-ish pct FB and a 27 pct Cutter usage. Last two seasons he's been above 60pct FB and under 15pct Cutter. A cutter that went from elite ranking to being a bad pitch to even throw this season. Want to know what else FG shows? Velocity drops over 1MPH across the board in 17 vs 16 which was less than those 2 Elite years. Hmm, a year where velocity reading was up by most, his dropped A Lot!

15 HRs given up in the 2 elite seasons combined, over 20 in 17 alone. I mean this is Yovani Gallardo drop territory. I'd suspect Arrieta will be top 10 all time worst FA signings unless somebody fixes his confidence in that Cutter and adds velocity.
that 15 season? He had a huge GB pct that is an anomally to his career. I give it 0 chance he'll ever have one 6FWar season or better the rest of his career.

Top 10 worst FA signing prediction, it can't be any clearer behind those numbers.


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Offline  Re: Jake Arrieta
Posted: January 12, 2018, 7:22 AM Post
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Excellent write up BrewCrew80 and I agree 100%.

I think and hope this is the year that MLB teams says no to Scott Boras. I hope Boras and his clients get a reality check here. Some writers are saying there's collusion amongst teams. No, instead GM's are seeing that these high priced Boras clients are not worth their $.


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Offline  Re: Jake Arrieta
Posted: January 12, 2018, 7:46 AM Post
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Location: Madison, WI
RockCoCougars said:
HighHeat19 said:

My argument is that Arrieta is NOT a premium pitcher. I'm not against the Brewers getting him, but not for the price.


Exactly. If he was considered a premium pitcher, the Brewers wouldn't even be players and he would have signed with a big market team long ago. Does anybody think that Kershaw, Kluber, etc. would still be trolling for offers in mid-January?


Depends on what the asking price was. If Kershaw was available and demanding a 10 year, 350 million dollar deal then he'd probably be trolling for offers mid-January. Once age and performance is taken into account, I'd say that's about equivalent to Arrieta's 8 year, 200 million demand.


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