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Jake Arrieta

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Offline  Re: Jake Arrieta
Posted: January 12, 2018, 8:15 AM Post
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Location: At the gettin' place
chuckiehacks said:
cubsdie said:
I see a lot of people are already trying to talk themselves into Arrieta just in case the Brewers sign him............



**guilty**


I'm on my way there myself.

I hate the Cubs. I hope they die.


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Offline  Re: Jake Arrieta
Posted: January 13, 2018, 2:40 AM Post
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I think Arrieta ends up getting less guaranteed years/overall compensation than he and Boras envisioned, but come down to a final decision, some team offers a better contract than the Brewers.

I'm not as down as others are on how Arrieta will produce, at least for say the next two years, but i don't want to be on the hook for years four and potentially five, assuming it would take a fifth year option of some kid to get a deal done.


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Offline  Re: Jake Arrieta
Posted: January 13, 2018, 9:13 AM Post
Posts: 579
Location: Madison, WI
I'll stick with my 5 year, 140 million guess and don't see the Brewers being a player at those numbers.


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Offline  Re: Jake Arrieta
Posted: January 13, 2018, 9:48 AM Post
Posts: 1035
Location: New Berlin, WI
JosephC said:
I'll stick with my 5 year, 140 million guess and don't see the Brewers being a player at those numbers.


I could see either 4/110 with a vesting option or 5/125 with no option. I don't think it goes higher than that.


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Offline  Re: Jake Arrieta
Posted: January 13, 2018, 10:53 AM Post
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cubsdie said:
chuckiehacks said:
cubsdie said:
I see a lot of people are already trying to talk themselves into Arrieta just in case the Brewers sign him............



**guilty**


I'm on my way there myself.

In some ways you have to do it. You get a player and what are the options? Hope he does well. Of course not. You hope and pray that the guy comes out on the plus side of the ledger because he's now YOUR guy - whether you like him or not.

I look at Arrieta and see a lot of land mines. But I see the positives. And we would land him, I'd smile and hope and pray that he can be the guy we need - even if I'm skeptical in a lot of ways.


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Offline  Re: Jake Arrieta
Posted: January 13, 2018, 11:41 AM Post
Posts: 1808
He is a good but not great pitcher and it's not my money so if the Brewers over pay that's not really going to affect me.

My issues is signing a 32 year old pitcher represents a dramatic departure from what we were told was a rebuilding program. You don't rebuild around high priced 32 year old free agents.


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Offline  Re: Jake Arrieta
Posted: January 13, 2018, 11:45 AM Post
Posts: 2386
Boomer5 said:
He is a good but not great pitcher and it's not my money so if the Brewers over pay that's not really going to affect me.

My issues is signing a 32 year old pitcher represents a dramatic departure from what we were told was a rebuilding program. You don't rebuild around high priced 32 year old free agents.

There's still a place for vets in any rebuilding mix and I'd much prefer an Arrieta over what we got out of Matt Garza (although the recent revelation of Garza's collision-induced shoulder injury puts his 2nd half struggles in a totally different light).

There was really only Braun and Jeffress (and I suppose Vogt) going into this off-season in terms of established vets -- not a bad thing, but rarely does any rebuild gain ALL its steam before you begin adding vets. Now we've added Chacin, Logan, and Gallardo, and only two of those are sure bets to make the club if healthy. Point being, adding an Arrieta or someone comparable, whether as a FA or via trade, doesn't blow the rebuild out of the water.

My hunch is that if we add an Arrieta or Lynn or Cobb, it's because the financial cost to signing them represented a better deal for the organization than the cost of prospects to go after an Archer type.

I'm not saying Arrieta is my ideal move (I don't know what my ideal move is because I can't know the potential costs of every option), but I do trust Stearns if he feels Arrieta is the best needed strategic option the Brewers have for improving the rotation for not just this year but beyond.


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Offline  Re: Jake Arrieta
Posted: January 13, 2018, 11:55 AM Post
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MNBrew said:
Boomer5 said:
He is a good but not great pitcher and it's not my money so if the Brewers over pay that's not really going to affect me.

My issues is signing a 32 year old pitcher represents a dramatic departure from what we were told was a rebuilding program. You don't rebuild around high priced 32 year old free agents.

There's still a place for vets in any rebuilding mix and I'd much prefer an Arrieta over what we got out of Matt Garza (although the recent revelation of Garza's collision-induced shoulder injury puts his 2nd half struggles in a totally different light).

There was really only Braun and Jeffress (and I suppose Vogt) going into this off-season in terms of established vets -- not a bad thing, but rarely does any rebuild gain ALL its steam before you begin adding vets. Now we've added Chacin, Logan, and Gallardo, and only two of those are sure bets to make the club if healthy. Point being, adding an Arrieta or someone comparable, whether as a FA or via trade, doesn't blow the rebuild out of the water.

My hunch is that if we add an Arrieta or Lynn or Cobb, it's because the financial cost to signing them represented a better deal for the organization than the cost of prospects to go after an Archer type.

I'm not saying Arrieta is my ideal move (I don't know what my ideal move is because I can't know the potential costs of every option), but I do trust Stearns if he feels Arrieta is the best needed strategic option the Brewers have for improving the rotation for not just this year but beyond.

Well said.


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Offline  Re: Jake Arrieta
Posted: January 13, 2018, 12:05 PM Post
Posts: 1808
MNBrew said:
Boomer5 said:
He is a good but not great pitcher and it's not my money so if the Brewers over pay that's not really going to affect me.

My issues is signing a 32 year old pitcher represents a dramatic departure from what we were told was a rebuilding program. You don't rebuild around high priced 32 year old free agents.

There's still a place for vets in any rebuilding mix and I'd much prefer an Arrieta over what we got out of Matt Garza (although the recent revelation of Garza's collision-induced shoulder injury puts his 2nd half struggles in a totally different light).

There was really only Braun and Jeffress (and I suppose Vogt) going into this off-season in terms of established vets -- not a bad thing, but rarely does any rebuild gain ALL its steam before you begin adding vets. Now we've added Chacin, Logan, and Gallardo, and only two of those are sure bets to make the club if healthy. Point being, adding an Arrieta or someone comparable, whether as a FA or via trade, doesn't blow the rebuild out of the water.

My hunch is that if we add an Arrieta or Lynn or Cobb, it's because the financial cost to signing them represented a better deal for the organization than the cost of prospects to go after an Archer type.

I'm not saying Arrieta is my ideal move (I don't know what my ideal move is because I can't know the potential costs of every option), but I do trust Stearns if he feels Arrieta is the best needed strategic option the Brewers have for improving the rotation for not just this year but beyond.


It's a win now move and not a very good one unless people feel we are an Arrieta away from being a playoff team.


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Offline  Re: Jake Arrieta
Posted: January 13, 2018, 12:21 PM Post
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Boomer5 said:
MNBrew said:
Boomer5 said:
He is a good but not great pitcher and it's not my money so if the Brewers over pay that's not really going to affect me.

My issues is signing a 32 year old pitcher represents a dramatic departure from what we were told was a rebuilding program. You don't rebuild around high priced 32 year old free agents.

There's still a place for vets in any rebuilding mix and I'd much prefer an Arrieta over what we got out of Matt Garza (although the recent revelation of Garza's collision-induced shoulder injury puts his 2nd half struggles in a totally different light).

There was really only Braun and Jeffress (and I suppose Vogt) going into this off-season in terms of established vets -- not a bad thing, but rarely does any rebuild gain ALL its steam before you begin adding vets. Now we've added Chacin, Logan, and Gallardo, and only two of those are sure bets to make the club if healthy. Point being, adding an Arrieta or someone comparable, whether as a FA or via trade, doesn't blow the rebuild out of the water.

My hunch is that if we add an Arrieta or Lynn or Cobb, it's because the financial cost to signing them represented a better deal for the organization than the cost of prospects to go after an Archer type.

I'm not saying Arrieta is my ideal move (I don't know what my ideal move is because I can't know the potential costs of every option), but I do trust Stearns if he feels Arrieta is the best needed strategic option the Brewers have for improving the rotation for not just this year but beyond.


It's a win now move and not a very good one unless people feel we are an Arrieta away from being a playoff team.


Yah, but this would not be just for this year. This would/could be a win now move for next year and the year after. We have a pretty stellar minor league system with some could-be-gems for pitching. We have the finances this year to add a top of the rotation pitcher which will help our team this...but...be primed to be a top of the rotation pitcher next year as well. Next years FA class is supposedly way better than this one. Imagine already having Arrieta in the fold along with Anderson and Nelson. Now you add one more ACE to that rotation next year and it will become a win now move.

If Sterns can pull this off, I would applaud it and not look back.


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Online  Re: Jake Arrieta
Posted: January 13, 2018, 12:34 PM Post
Posts: 6483
Location: Kenosha, WI
I’m really not going to get all up in arms about Arrieta because I just don’t think our offer is going to win. It sounds like it is going to take over $20mil AVV and the winner is the first to nibble on 5 years. I don’t envision Stearns being that guy if the price gets towards $120mil+

Once he signs it will be interesting if our offer leaks out. My guess is we offered a highly aggressive three year deal.


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Offline  Re: Jake Arrieta
Posted: January 13, 2018, 2:17 PM Post
Posts: 831
I agree completely. I’d bet we are around 3 for $70 M.

That wouldn’t be the end of the world either way. Guys that age try to squeeze out that extra year. It’s not collusion to not buy into that. There are plenty of examples of guys who fade and that last year becomes unpalatable. I’d imagine we wouldn’t do 4 and say $92.5.


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Offline  Re: Jake Arrieta
Posted: January 13, 2018, 2:19 PM Post
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brewtank34 said:
Yah, but this would not be just for this year. This would/could be a win now move for next year and the year after. We have a pretty stellar minor league system with some could-be-gems for pitching.


Assuming Arrieta doesn't continue declining. I also strongly disagree that we have a stellar minor league system.


Last edited by trwi7 on January 13, 2018, 2:23 PM, edited 2 times in total.

Cards' fans wear jorts.


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Online  Re: Jake Arrieta
Posted: January 13, 2018, 2:22 PM Post
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If Stearns is offering three years I’ll be really impressed because that’s about the only way I understand our interest and even then it’s questionable.

“There's a fine line between being confident and cocky, or overconfident. This is an extremely humbling game. But if you don't believe in yourself, no one else is going to believe in you.”


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Online  Re: Jake Arrieta
Posted: January 13, 2018, 2:34 PM Post
Posts: 312
Listening to MLB radio and they made a comment that no one has been signed for more than 3 years this offseason, which is clearly a correction in the market. I could see an aggressive 3 year offer with club options for 4 and 5 or more incentives built in that would pay based on performance. I don't think the Brewers will be the high bidder by years or total dollar amount though.


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Offline  Re: Jake Arrieta
Posted: January 13, 2018, 2:38 PM Post
Posts: 47
I can only see the brewers realistically being in on Cobb with a muti-yr deal at this point.


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Offline  Re: Jake Arrieta
Posted: January 13, 2018, 7:22 PM Post
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I think the longer these SP hang out on the FA market, the better chance the Brewers have at actually signing one of them to a reasonable-ish contract.

It seems teams are really playing hardball this year and the biggest of spenders aren't spending money. I'm not sure if I want it to happen or not, but it wouldn't surprise me in the least if the Brewers wind up with one of Arrieta, Cobb or Lynn.


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