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Royals Trading Partners? - Danny Duffy, Whit Merrifield

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Offline  Re: Royals Trading Partners? - Danny Duffy, Whit Merrifield
Posted: January 05, 2018, 10:07 AM Post
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UGH!


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Offline  Re: Royals Trading Partners? - Danny Duffy, Whit Merrifield
Posted: January 05, 2018, 10:09 AM Post
Posts: 120
Brew4U said:
I'm sorry Briggs, but that is just flat out nuts what you are giving up to get that return. Talk about hamstringing the future of the organization.


Not just the future, but I would put it at 50/50 that trading Brinson & Woodruff (alone) for Duffy & Merrifield could even make the 2018 roster worse (or its at least close enough to give pause). Not to mention the prospects, the loss of draft pick for having to sign Cain and what not.

Too look at it another way:

-Duffy vs Woodruff - edge to Duffy but honestly, it may be really close if Woodruff lives up to the potential he has shown.
-Merrifield vs Villar/Sogard/Perez/Walker - I would call this a draw between regression from Merrifield & Sogard, bounce back by Villar or signing Walker.
-Cain vs Brinson/Phillips - definite edge to Cain for next year offensively but a likely edge to Brinson/Phillips defensively. Additionally Brinson & Phillips have the potential to outplay Cain offensively in 2018 if they live up to their potential they have shown. And this doesn't take into account age regression by Cain which is definitely possible.

Additionally, every KC option costs more $$, costs more prospects, and costs draft picks. You are at best looking for a slight upgrade in 2018 with likely major steps back in 2019 and beyond. And that's the best case scenario.


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Offline  Re: Royals Trading Partners? - Danny Duffy, Whit Merrifield
Posted: January 05, 2018, 10:12 AM Post
Posts: 975
Location: Madison, WI
It really would be cool if Attanasio thought sticking another 35 million on the payroll was as easy as some fans do. It would put the Brewers at around 105 million this year with would be workable but with Santana, Shaw, Davies, Knebel all likely earning pretty big money in arbitration it could easily push the Brewer's payroll to 130 million by 2020.


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Offline  Re: Royals Trading Partners? - Danny Duffy, Whit Merrifield
Posted: January 05, 2018, 10:32 AM Post
Posts: 2256
Location: New Berlin, WI
JohnBriggs12 said:
KeithStone53151 said:
Warning Track Power said:
I have zero interest in Merrifield when the Brewers could sign Neil Walker and not surrender any prospect of value to get him. I am not a fan of the buy high mentality especially when it comes to guys with no track record.


Well right absolutely, but I have no interest in Merrifield whether we sign Walker or not. I just don't think he's that good of a player. I don't see how he's much of an upgrade from Sogard or Perez if at all. I doubt he ever touches his SB or HR totals again. He'll probably be a 275/325/380 hitter going forward, which really isn't valuable at all.


Merrifield has a track record of nearly 1,000 major league plate appearances. I have a hard time believing his numbers: .286/.324/.437 are fluky though I've long thought that if given a full time job that Perez could produce similar numbers. He took a little step backward last year in my opinion, maybe because all the moving around combined with a full winter ball stretch took a toll and there doesn't seem to be a commitment by Brewer brass to give Hernan an everyday job. But if I can get Merrifield in a package with Duffy who I like as much or more than Archer, then if I'm the Brewers I make this offer:

Royals get:

Brinson
Woodruff
Perez
Ortiz
Diaz

Brewers get:

Duffy
Merrifield

Then I go all out and sign Cain and my 2018 lineup and rotation looks like this:

Cain
Merrifield
Shaw
Braun
Thames
Santana
Arcia
Pina/Vogt

Infield backups: Sogard, Villar, Aguilar
OF Depth: Phillips

Rotation: Anderson, Duffy, Davies, Chacin, one of Guerra, Gallardo, Suter

That lineup WAR in 2017 per B-R: 23.9 and everyone is controllable at least through 2019

Rotation WAR in 2017 per B-R: 16.2 (Assumes Suter) and everyone other than Gallardo is controllable through at least 2019, with the top 3 all controllable through at least 2020.


Trades that big generally don't happen, I'm not going to weigh in on the value of each side.

Back to Merrifield, his career minor league numbers are 274/334/403. His 2015/2016 AAA numbers are relatively in line with that...as is his 2016 MLB stat line of 283/323/392. Then all of a sudden he hits 19 dingers in 2017(10 more than his previous high at any level including PCL) and posts 288/324/460. That 460 is dragging his MLB slugging percentage higher than should be expected going forward. Unless this guy packed on some good muscle or something, I doubt he's all of a sudden going to be a 20 hr guy. Maybe 280/330/400 is a more fair expectation for a couple years, that's still at best a 2nd division starter or 1st division utility guy.

I think Sogard and Perez are comparable. I'm not going to do a statistical comp of Sogard as the sample is too small for him, but Perez was 259/289/414 last year and 272/302/428 the year prior and is capable of similar stolen base numbers. Perez has a slightly higher K rate and slightly lower BB rate than Merrifield, but he's within 1 percentage point in both categories over the last 2 years. Also Perez is far more versatile than Merrifield as he can play between below average and above average defense at 7 positions depending on the position, while Merrifield can play 2b and corner outfield...maybe 3b or 1b in a pinch but no CF and no SS. If people like Merrifield at 2b, might as well give Perez the everyday job. There's no reason to trade for this guy.


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Offline  Re: Royals Trading Partners? - Danny Duffy, Whit Merrifield
Posted: January 05, 2018, 6:20 PM Post
Posts: 4028
Warning Track Power said:
JohnBriggs12 said:
Royals get:

Brinson
Woodruff
Perez
Ortiz
Diaz

Brewers get:

Duffy
Merrifield

This is a HUGE overpay and a total win now move. Brinson, Ortiz and Diaz is more than I am willing to pay to get Duffy and I have zero interest in Woodruff for Merrifield especially with Villar/Sogard on the roster and Walker still available.


Brinson and Woodruff I'd be considering an overpay, adding all those others? Id expect the Royals to pay 10million a year for what's left on Duffy's contract(not cheap)
Thats a worse trade than a proposal I believe for Archer when stated Sale didnt bring back this kind of haul.


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Offline  Re: Royals Trading Partners? - Danny Duffy, Whit Merrifield
Posted: February 18, 2018, 12:58 AM Post
Posts: 1491
Does losing Cain and Hosmer trigger them to blow it up?


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Offline  Re: Royals Trading Partners? - Danny Duffy, Whit Merrifield
Posted: February 18, 2018, 1:09 AM Post
Posts: 869
Location: Ohio
TJseven7 said:
Does losing Cain and Hosmer trigger them to blow it up?


KC was already starting its rebuild...
The question was always how fast would they tear it down to start building it back up..


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Offline  Re: Royals Trading Partners? - Danny Duffy, Whit Merrifield
Posted: February 18, 2018, 1:17 AM Post
Posts: 1491
    MadThinker88 said:
    TJseven7 said:
    Does losing Cain and Hosmer trigger them to blow it up?


    KC was already starting its rebuild...
    The question was always how fast would they tear it down to start building it back up..


    That's my point. They lost their 2 best bats and moose is still unsigned. It's closing in on a disaster offseason for them. Won't take a lot to drive that team into the ground. A couple rp, duffy, escobar, whit and it gets ugly fast.

    Still don't think I'd give up assets to get duffy over signing cobb but its a lot more interesting as to where they go.

    Being this late in the offseason does them no favors.


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    Offline  Re: Royals Trading Partners? - Danny Duffy, Whit Merrifield
    Posted: February 18, 2018, 1:30 AM Post
    Posts: 869
    Location: Ohio
    TJseven7 said:
    That's my point. They lost their 2 best bats and moose is still unsigned. It's closing in on a disaster offseason for them. Won't take a lot to drive that team into the ground. A couple rp, duffy, escobar, whit and it gets ugly fast.

    Still don't think I'd give up assets to get duffy over signing cobb but its a lot more interesting as to where they go.

    Being this late in the offseason does them no favors.


    There is always the possibility now that Hosmer has departed the Royals try to retain Moose.

    They were counting on the various Comp Picks to help restock the system. Now that they finally got 2 extra picks & there is no real direction to the market for Moose, the Royals might try to resigning him in order to deal him at a later date.

    Rebuilding clubs (be it the Royals or other teams now or the Brewers during 2015 & 2016) always are trying to maximize assets. Just because the right deal doesn't emerge now doesn't mean it won't appear at the upcoming trade deadline or next off season.

    Looking at the Royals, this isn't a RELOAD situation. They need a full REBUILD & will need to build from the foundation on up. The death of the pitcher last off season did not help. Dealing many farm pieces helped them to get to the World Series in 2014 & win the series in 2015. Those situations closed the Royal window a little faster then they anticipated originally.


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    Offline  Re: Royals Trading Partners? - Danny Duffy, Whit Merrifield
    Posted: February 19, 2018, 10:37 AM Post
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    What's the status of Duffy's elbow? Because after all the discussion about just about every other pitcher we've had on here, he might be the best option for the Brewers. Cheaper control through 2021 and has pitched like a TOR pitcher for much of his career. Couple that with the Royals tearing it down and we might have a good match.


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    Offline  Whit Merrifield
    Posted: June 30, 2018, 9:13 AM Post
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    Posts: 850
    MLBTR posted that the Brewers have interest in Merrifield. I honestly know nothing about him. Anyone with insight into his game, how he fits, what it’d take to get him?

    I am not Shea Vucinich


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    Offline  Re: Royals Trading Partners? - Danny Duffy, Whit Merrifield
    Posted: June 30, 2018, 9:34 AM Post
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    Brewerfan Jedi
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    Merged BB61's thread with this prior topic discussing Merrifield, since there was some good discussion in this thread.

    Stearns Brewing Co.: Sustainability from farm to plate


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    Online  Re: Royals Trading Partners? - Danny Duffy, Whit Merrifield
    Posted: June 30, 2018, 9:40 AM Post
    Posts: 13236
    Merrifield is kind of a Shaw-like late bloomer and would be a really nice target. He can do a little bit of it all, base stealer, hit for a nice average, and get on base a little bit. Every bit the contact hitter, does not K much. Not a ton of power in his career but then hit 19 out of nowhere last year, so who knows.

    Defense is about average at 2nd. Limited to 2nd in the infield but can play anywhere in the OF when needed.

    Not young but should remain productive through 2022 which is the last year of his control. I would be excited to get him but frankly a bit sad because I'd be thinking at that point that Keston almost inevitably gets traded for pitching.


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    Offline  Re: Royals Trading Partners? - Danny Duffy, Whit Merrifield
    Posted: June 30, 2018, 9:44 AM Post
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    TooLiveBrew said:
    Merged BB61's thread with this prior topic discussing Merrifield, since there was some good discussion in this thread.


    Thanks - didn’t see this thread!

    I am not Shea Vucinich


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    Offline  Re: Royals Trading Partners? - Danny Duffy, Whit Merrifield
    Posted: June 30, 2018, 9:46 AM Post
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    BuckyBrewer61 said:
    TooLiveBrew said:
    Merged BB61's thread with this prior topic discussing Merrifield, since there was some good discussion in this thread.


    Thanks - didn’t see this thread!

    No worries, it'd fallen back to page 5. I just remembered it for some reason. Hope the earlier posts give you some useful info, & that more discussion spins up now too.

    Stearns Brewing Co.: Sustainability from farm to plate


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    Online  Re: Royals Trading Partners? - Danny Duffy, Whit Merrifield
    Posted: June 30, 2018, 12:02 PM Post
    Posts: 573
    I'm not really a big fan of Merrifield since he's an extreme platoon player. I'd rather target a more balanced bat if we're going to pay the price in prospects.

    vs LHP - .388/.427/.612/1.039
    vs RHP - .230/.325./.291/.615


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    Offline  Re: Royals Trading Partners? - Danny Duffy, Whit Merrifield
    Posted: June 30, 2018, 12:25 PM Post
    Posts: 869
    Location: Ohio
    Bnowell4evr said:
    I'm not really a big fan of Merrifield since he's an extreme platoon player. I'd rather target a more balanced bat if we're going to pay the price in prospects.

    vs LHP - .388/.427/.612/1.039
    vs RHP - .230/.325./.291/.615


    I get those are Merrifield's 2018 numbers but here are his career numbers

    vs LHP - .332/ .377/ .528/ .905
    vs RHP - .270/ .318/ .394/ .712

    The splits are not as bad as it looks this season..


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    Online  Re: Royals Trading Partners? - Danny Duffy, Whit Merrifield
    Posted: June 30, 2018, 12:38 PM Post
    Posts: 13236
    With some exceptions, most good righty hitters destroy lefty pitching and have much more modest numbers against righties. I'm not too worried about it.


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    Offline  Re: Royals Trading Partners? - Danny Duffy, Whit Merrifield
    Posted: June 30, 2018, 12:44 PM Post
    Posts: 17
    Just go out and get Asdrubral Cabrera. He will probably cost nothing like Neil Walker did last season. The Mets will be happy just to get rid of his salary for the rest of the season.

    The idea of trading Hiura is completely insane to me. He is far and away our best positional prospect and the only one even remotely close to helping this team. A bat like his comes around once a decade for a small market team like the Brewers so we must keep him.


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    Offline  Re: Royals Trading Partners? - Danny Duffy, Whit Merrifield
    Posted: June 30, 2018, 9:30 PM Post
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    I agree i can't see the brewers trading Hiura he looks to be a great hitting prospect that this team sorely needs . I still keep Peralta to seems to be a guy that DS needs to hold onto too.


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