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Royals Trading Partners? - Danny Duffy, Whit Merrifield

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Offline  Re: Royals Trading Partners? - Danny Duffy, Whit Merrifield
#81

Posted: December 17, 2017, 5:07 PM Post
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What would a trade for Duffy, Merrifield and Herrera look like?

I know it's unrealistic, but that would plug some holes.


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Offline  Re: Royals Trading Partners? - Danny Duffy, Whit Merrifield
#82

Posted: December 17, 2017, 5:44 PM Post
Posts: 747
Location: Madison, WI
cubsdie said:
What would a trade for Duffy, Merrifield and Herrera look like?

I know it's unrealistic, but that would plug some holes.


Herrera is only under team control for one more season, so actually his part of the price-tag might be pretty low.

I guess the return for all three would be something like Lewis Brinson, Brandon Woodruff, Isan Diaz and Freddy Peralta. And I would completely agree with the people who point out that the Brewers couldn't do this deal because it's not a net add for the rotation (losing Woodruff offsets the addition of Duffy).


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Offline  Re: Royals Trading Partners? - Danny Duffy, Whit Merrifield
#83

Posted: December 17, 2017, 9:04 PM Post
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Folks, I deleted 13 posts that were not relevant to this thread.

I've said this before - if you want to talk about Khris Davis or Scooter Gennett or debate the moves of David Stearns related to those ideas - go make a thread. Do not hijack threads to bring up a topic that has been discussed ad nauseam in other threads - most of which weren't related to those subjects either.

I apologize if I've deleted something anyone thought was relevant to a trade with KC, but I was just trying to remove any discussion not on topic and didn't want to leave any hanging posts.

Again, I encourage people not to reply to off topic posts. If you find a topic is constantly brought up that is not on target, please PM a moderator. If we find a subject is being brought up repeatedly, and out of context, we can delete it.

Thank you.


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Offline  Re: Royals Trading Partners? - Danny Duffy, Whit Merrifield
#84

Posted: December 17, 2017, 9:10 PM Post
Posts: 340
JosephC said:
cubsdie said:
What would a trade for Duffy, Merrifield and Herrera look like?

I know it's unrealistic, but that would plug some holes.


Herrera is only under team control for one more season, so actually his part of the price-tag might be pretty low.

I guess the return for all three would be something like Lewis Brinson, Brandon Woodruff, Isan Diaz and Freddy Peralta. And I would completely agree with the people who point out that the Brewers couldn't do this deal because it's not a net add for the rotation (losing Woodruff offsets the addition of Duffy).


That’s way too much to give up. I’m Not a big fan of Merrifield since I think they need some OBP.

Getting Duffy and Herrera makes some sense, but Brinson cannot be part of that package. Trading from the OF surplus is a good idea, but that should be Broxton and Harrison in that trade instead


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Offline  Re: Royals Trading Partners? - Danny Duffy, Whit Merrifield
#85

Posted: December 17, 2017, 9:30 PM Post
Posts: 863
I would not trade Harrison. We cannot even see his ceiling yet.

I had him rated as my sixth prospect when we put together our cumulative rankings. That may have seemed aggressive until we saw that Fangraphs had him at three.

One interesting thing about the winter meetings is you can get a sense of how other ballclubs see your players. You can gather information that way. Stearns has a good sense of Harrison’s value if lots of teams are inquiring about Harrison as I suspect.

If things come together, an outfield of Harrison, Brinson and Phillips, with Lutz coming up next, could be devastating.

I’m not giving that possibility up for Danny Duffy. That’s the type of thing you could look back on in five or six years and just skewer the organization over. I hope we know better.


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Online  Re: Royals Trading Partners? - Danny Duffy, Whit Merrifield
#86

Posted: December 18, 2017, 7:37 AM Post
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At this point, I'm taking Harrison off the table unless a legit TOR pitcher is coming our way. I'd rather risk it and see what we have in him than give him away and regret it later.


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Offline  Re: Royals Trading Partners? - Danny Duffy, Whit Merrifield
#87

Posted: December 18, 2017, 7:39 AM Post
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Just a friendly reminder in the spirit of examining these teams as potential trade partners, it was seven years ago today that word leaked that the Brewers were acquiring Zack Greinke and Yuniesky Betancourt (and $2 million dollars) from the Royals in exchange for Alcides Escobar, Lorenzo Cain, Jeremy Jeffress, and Jake Odorizzi. The trade was officially announced the following day.

If the teams match up on a present day trade I do think the Brewers could acquire Duffy and Merrifield without giving up Lewis Brinson or Brandon Woodruff. I think the Royals asking price would still be plenty steep, something possibly along the lines of Keston Hiura, Monte Harrison, Isan Diaz, either Luis Ortiz or Corbin Burnes, and an additional prospect a little further down the Brewers prospect list. Both Royals players have plenty of control remaining, 4 years for Duffy and 5 years for Merrifield. I personally would shy away from giving up this many current assets for the two players. If making a deal with the Royals, I would prefer to trade for Duffy alone at a lower cost, and go a different direction than acquiring Merrifield.


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Offline  Re: Royals Trading Partners? - Danny Duffy, Whit Merrifield
#88

Posted: December 18, 2017, 9:33 AM Post
Posts: 3996
I've said this before, but what value is Duffy when he's paid 14mil+ the next 4 years? To me that is his market value or barely below. 24-26 Games started the last 4 seasons, never above. At this stage It'd be someone like Ortiz and then say Je'Von Ward for the deal.

Maybe we could get a Cody Ponce and Troy Stokes value trade without losing our highest ranked SP prospect.

But again, we're acquiring a guy who won't be seeing the playoffs if we made them unless he spent some time on the DL or in the bullpen. Not exactly what I'd like to hope for when paying 14mil-Brewers 2nd highest if he was traded for.

Duffy as a SP has a career 3.81ERA which BRef pegs him for 144IP with 1 save and a 3.94ERA....so there's confusion on what he really is.
As a RP it's 2.08.

I mean I get it, he's solid, but not removing top tier prospects solid when you can just pay Lynn again the same kind of money for results on a 33Game starter vs a 25game starter without parting any prospects.

Merrifield doesn't move the needle for me. You have Hiura and Diaz upcoming and he has too much team control remaining that we don't need at that position. If Merrifield slugged like his career numbers in the minors he'd have been closer to a .715 OPS this year. You gotta believe he's not hitting 19HRs again next season when his previous full season high in the minors was 10. And while he offers 30+SBs it comes at an 80% rate; 72% in the minors. Which averages out to what Villar has given us the last 2 seasons. 76%.
He's a slightly higher floor offensively but equal ceiling if not a touch below than Villar. You'd hang your hat on the defensive improvement but you know KC would ask for a guy like Diaz in a trade. What's the purpose


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Offline  Re: Royals Trading Partners? - Danny Duffy, Whit Merrifield
#89

Posted: December 18, 2017, 10:05 AM Post
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Eye Black at Night said:
Just a friendly reminder in the spirit of examining these teams as potential trade partners, it was seven years ago today that word leaked that the Brewers were acquiring Zack Greinke and Yuniesky Betancourt (and $2 million dollars) from the Royals in exchange for Alcides Escobar, Lorenzo Cain, Jeremy Jeffress, and Jake Odorizzi. The trade was officially announced the following day.

If the teams match up on a present day trade I do think the Brewers could acquire Duffy and Merrifield without giving up Lewis Brinson or Brandon Woodruff. I think the Royals asking price would still be plenty steep, something possibly along the lines of Keston Hiura, Monte Harrison, Isan Diaz, either Luis Ortiz or Corbin Burnes, and an additional prospect a little further down the Brewers prospect list. Both Royals players have plenty of control remaining, 4 years for Duffy and 5 years for Merrifield. I personally would shy away from giving up this many current assets for the two players. If making a deal with the Royals, I would prefer to trade for Duffy alone at a lower cost, and go a different direction than acquiring Merrifield.

This was a crazy day. There were rumors for days about Greinke, but no one thought he'd approve a trade to Milwaukee. Then on Saturday afternoon at 3:45 this post came through:

From Jim Breen,

"Source tells me #Brewers have traded SS Alcides Escobar, CF Lorenzo Cain, and RHP Jeremy Jeffress for RHP Zack Greinke, SS Betancourt + $2M."

"Still has not been confirmed w/in organization, but the rumor is the deal will be announced on Monday. #Brewers"


Odorizzi was not part of the initial report.

Here was the blog post with the news: http://archive.jsonline.com/blogs/sport ... 37964.html

viewtopic.php?f=66&t=22157&start=460#p650312

For the next 10 hours or so it was a roller coaster for Brewer fans as no one would confirm the deal. Just go through the thread and you can see everyone freaking out. It's kind of fun. There was lots of skepticism that the trade was for real as the return seemed like. The inclusion of Odorizzi changed that perception by many.

In the end, I have to give KC credit. They targeted several players who would be core contributors to their WS run.

A lot of people lament this trade as it emptied our farm system (along with the Marcum trade). But even with these guys, our system was pretty weak.

Oh well, no use worrying about what can't be changed.

I encourage people to read the Greinke trade thread. It's pretty fun.


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Offline  Re: Royals Trading Partners? - Danny Duffy, Whit Merrifield
#90

Posted: December 29, 2017, 1:16 PM Post
Posts: 389
https://royalsfarmreport.com/2017/12/29 ... milwaukee/

The Milwaukee Brewers receive:

LHP Danny Duffy
2B/LF Whit Merrifield
RHP Kelvin Herrera

The Kansas City Royals receive:

CF Monte Harrison
RHP Corbin Burnes
2B/SS Isan Diaz
RHP Jordan Yamamoto


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Offline  Re: Royals Trading Partners? - Danny Duffy, Whit Merrifield
#91

Posted: December 29, 2017, 1:44 PM Post
Posts: 1642
Location: New Berlin, WI
mlloyd10 said:
https://royalsfarmreport.com/2017/12/29/royals-need-to-make-a-deal-with-milwaukee/

The Milwaukee Brewers receive:

LHP Danny Duffy
2B/LF Whit Merrifield
RHP Kelvin Herrera

The Kansas City Royals receive:

CF Monte Harrison
RHP Corbin Burnes
2B/SS Isan Diaz
RHP Jordan Yamamoto


Danny duffy...front of the line starter...that's a reach. Merrifield should play outfield very sparingly, and almost never should start over Braun. It's almost like they don't realize we have Phillips/Brinson. And Herrera only has one expensive year remaining on his contract and therefore shouldn't have much value. I don't like the idea of giving up Burnes in this deal, nobody in this deal warrants giving up a young/impact pitcher like Burnes. Go from Burnes to Ponce and tack on one other lower minors player...and it's closer to something I'm comfortable with. Or maybe try to send Villar in the deal as he'd be redundant in this case.


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Offline  Re: Royals Trading Partners? - Danny Duffy, Whit Merrifield
#92

Posted: December 29, 2017, 1:46 PM Post
Posts: 340
That’s definitely a pro-royals proposal


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Offline  Re: Royals Trading Partners? - Danny Duffy, Whit Merrifield
#93

Posted: December 29, 2017, 1:47 PM Post
Posts: 822
mlloyd10 said:
https://royalsfarmreport.com/2017/12/29/royals-need-to-make-a-deal-with-milwaukee/

The Milwaukee Brewers receive:

LHP Danny Duffy
2B/LF Whit Merrifield
RHP Kelvin Herrera

The Kansas City Royals receive:

CF Monte Harrison
RHP Corbin Burnes
2B/SS Isan Diaz
RHP Jordan Yamamoto


Trade out Burnes for Ortiz and I like it a lot more. If the Brewers do a move like this, they better sign another good starter and add someone like Reed to make a difference.


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Offline  Re: Royals Trading Partners? - Danny Duffy, Whit Merrifield
#94

Posted: December 29, 2017, 2:00 PM Post
Posts: 1642
Location: New Berlin, WI
Whit Merrifield has 5 years of team control and will be 29. Had a couple good years in his peak age seasons. His 19 Hr last year after hitting single digits his entire minor league career, including hitter friendly PCL for 2 years. I don't buy this most recent season. Regression candidate to say the least. Their package has value, but they are dreaming if they think they are landing 3 top 100 guys for that.


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Offline  Re: Royals Trading Partners? - Danny Duffy, Whit Merrifield
#95

Posted: December 29, 2017, 2:35 PM Post
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While Duffy would be a welcome addition, he's far from the front-line guy this team needs. The contract is decent for the expected production and potential but he hasn't exactly been the model of good health. I would give that package up for Archer but not Duffy. Merrifield isn't much different that Hernan Perez. I don't buy last season either. Herrera is just OK.

Harrison, Diaz and Yamamoto for Duffy would by something I'd consider.


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Offline  Re: Royals Trading Partners? - Danny Duffy, Whit Merrifield
#96

Posted: December 29, 2017, 2:40 PM Post
Posts: 747
Location: Madison, WI
In Baseball America's updated rankings, Burnes is #3, Harrison is #5 and Diaz is #9 on the Brewer's top 10 prospect list. So Diaz may still be a top 100 prospect on the MLB Pipeline list, but probably won't be when the list is updated in the spring. Burnes and Harrison are probably top 100 players but chances are pretty good that both will be listed in the bottom 1/4 of that list. Based on this, I'd say that the Brewers would definitely be getting the better value in this deal. Duffy has a bunch of warts but over the last two seasons he's a 3+ WAR pitcher and Merrifield was a 3.5 WAR player in his first MLB season. Those two come with 9 years of team control remaining. Brewers would only be giving up about 55 million in surplus value here and the Royals should be looking to get back in the area of 80 million in surplus value for giving up the combination of Duffy and Merrifield.

That being said, even though this trade heavily favors Milwaukee, I still would not be in favor of doing the deal. Two problems with Merrifield. One is that he's probably better in the 6th spot of a lineup and the Brewers need top of the order hitters. Second is that Merrifield has five years of control but is at the spot that is probably the deepest in the Brewer's system (although I realize moving Diaz in the trade alleviates some of that concern. And while there is no issue with Duffy's performance, I wouldn't want the Brewers to lock themselves into a 60 million dollar commitment to a starter that has had some health issues in the past. If I were a Yankee fan I'd feel totally different about that, but it's another thing when you are a Brewer fan and have to consider those associated payroll considerations.


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Offline  Re: Royals Trading Partners? - Danny Duffy, Whit Merrifield
#97

Posted: December 30, 2017, 12:11 AM Post
Posts: 2199
mlloyd10 said:
https://royalsfarmreport.com/2017/12/29/royals-need-to-make-a-deal-with-milwaukee/

The Milwaukee Brewers receive:

LHP Danny Duffy
2B/LF Whit Merrifield
RHP Kelvin Herrera

The Kansas City Royals receive:

CF Monte Harrison
RHP Corbin Burnes
2B/SS Isan Diaz
RHP Jordan Yamamoto


The Brewers need to do this trade immediately. I'd hate to lose Burnes and Harrison but we have plenty of OFers and Duffy makes up for the loss of Burnes. Diaz has very little value and we already have KH, and Yamamoto isn't an elite prospect.


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Offline  Re: Royals Trading Partners? - Danny Duffy, Whit Merrifield
#98

Posted: December 30, 2017, 1:20 AM Post
Posts: 3996
Harrison #6 of in the system in 2017's MLB rankings. Yeah keep telling yourself the Brewers and all of Prospect rankings rate Grisham, Phillips, Lutz, and Ray ahead of him at this moment. Same can be said on Burnes. The only real accurate trade target comes in Diaz since Hiura makes an equal commodity who likely rises faster.
Love the notation Duffy would fit the Brewers search on a Top of Rotation Pitcher, because Never throwing over 180IP or a career 4.8ERA in Sept/Oct makes Duffy a confident TOR Pitcher.

Harrison is too valuable, go ahead and take Grisham instead of Harrison, and Ortiz instead of Burnes and now the deal makes sense. Throw in a guy like Diplan who's year last season moved him further down the Brewers pipeline of Pitchers, but after Ortiz, hey he's the Royal #4 prospect and 2nd best pitcher prospect.


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Offline  Re: Royals Trading Partners? - Danny Duffy, Whit Merrifield
#99

Posted: December 30, 2017, 4:47 PM Post
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I am keeping Burns with the brewers.


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Offline  Re: Royals Trading Partners? - Danny Duffy, Whit Merrifield
Posted: December 30, 2017, 4:59 PM Post
Posts: 2199
Duffy is a 3.2 WAR guy and Merrifield is 3.9 WAR. That will require a major haul.


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