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Alex Cobb

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Online  Re: Alex Cobb
#21

Posted: January 02, 2018, 4:31 PM Post
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Location: California
Back on topic about Cobb, I just don't know what to expect from him. Does a rotation of Anderson-Cobb-Davies-Chacin-Woodruff/Suter/Nelson make you a playoff contender? If it doesn't, spending $15-$20 million on him doesn't make a ton of sense and the Brewers would be better served to continue to explore the trade market or continuing to develop their internal candidates. After going through all of the possible SP additions via trade or FA, I guess the real question becomes who moves the needle to the Brewers toward a playoff rotation?


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Offline  Re: Alex Cobb
#22

Posted: January 02, 2018, 4:51 PM Post
Posts: 1035
Location: New Berlin, WI
Warning Track Power said:
Back on topic about Cobb, I just don't know what to expect from him. Does a rotation of Anderson-Cobb-Davies-Chacin-Woodruff/Suter/Nelson make you a playoff contender? If it doesn't, spending $15-$20 million on him doesn't make a ton of sense and the Brewers would be better served to continue to explore the trade market or continuing to develop their internal candidates. After going through all of the possible SP additions via trade or FA, I guess the real question becomes who moves the needle to the Brewers toward a playoff rotation?


The Cobb route wouldn't be a wise route to go. This decision would a Melvin standard operating procedure type move. Lohse, Suppan, Garza...we know how these deals go. Cobb in addition to being even more expensive than those 3 guys carries more injury risk. No thanks. By the time his ask got down to a range that would in my opinion work for the Brewers, he'd already be signed with the Cubs or someone else.


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Offline  Re: Alex Cobb
#23

Posted: January 02, 2018, 7:11 PM Post
Posts: 1340
If we drop 20(+?) mil a year on Alex Cobb Stearns should be fired immediately.


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Offline  Re: Alex Cobb
#24

Posted: January 02, 2018, 7:30 PM Post
Posts: 995
Warning Track Power said:
Back on topic about Cobb, I just don't know what to expect from him. Does a rotation of Anderson-Cobb-Davies-Chacin-Woodruff/Suter/Nelson make you a playoff contender? If it doesn't, spending $15-$20 million on him doesn't make a ton of sense and the Brewers would be better served to continue to explore the trade market or continuing to develop their internal candidates. After going through all of the possible SP additions via trade or FA, I guess the real question becomes who moves the needle to the Brewers toward a playoff rotation?


I don't think the game of 'does paying a top FA pitcher make you a playoff contender' should be an issue. The issue is building a rotation for the near future. Getting a stable long-term piece for the next few years, to go along with several young in house candidates, should be the goal.


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Offline  Re: Alex Cobb
#25

Posted: January 02, 2018, 7:44 PM Post
Posts: 579
Location: Madison, WI
Cobb can go for the 18-20 million per year figure but the reason he isn't signed yet is because no team is going to give that up. If any one team was willing he'd be long off the market. I think AT BEST he's looking at something like 4 years, 62 million or if he can get one more guaranteed year then maybe 5 years, 70 million. But I'd guess four years and I think the final number will probably be in the 56-58 million range.


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Offline  Re: Alex Cobb
#26

Posted: January 02, 2018, 8:12 PM Post
Posts: 2428
He's never pitched more than 180 innings in a year, right? Very hard pass on him anywhere close to his asking price


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Offline  Re: Alex Cobb
#27

Posted: January 02, 2018, 10:14 PM Post
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Unless I missed the news that MLB has instituted a salary floor, I see no reason to burn high 8 figures on this guy. It would be infuriating to see the Brewers enter into another big money multi-year deal with a pitcher north of 30. For heaven's sake, we are this close to entering a the season without an old, expensive, mediocre at best(albatross at worst), starting pitcher burning starts for the first time in over a decade. Please don't screw it up now.


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Offline  Re: Alex Cobb
#28

Posted: January 02, 2018, 10:40 PM Post
Posts: 47
I'd rather give a year and an option deal to Tillman or Jaime Garcia.


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Offline  Re: Alex Cobb
#29

Posted: January 02, 2018, 11:04 PM Post
Posts: 2968
Lot of risk in signing Cobb to a big contract, only if the Brewers refuse to take on other financial risks. It is infuriating as a fan to be told "we can't afford him". That is completely ridiculous. Mark A has more than doubled his money since buying the Brewers. I don't give a care if he loses some money back, I want a Brewers World Series!

The David Stearns era: Controllable Young Talent. Watch the Jedi work his magic!


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Offline  Re: Alex Cobb
#30

Posted: January 02, 2018, 11:25 PM Post
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I’d rather spend $20 million/year (it will end up being less $ than $20) on Cobb for 4 years than give up a king’s ransom of prospects for 4 years of Archer.


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Offline  Re: Alex Cobb
#31

Posted: January 03, 2018, 8:19 AM Post
Posts: 2428
Since Archer is a better pitcher, 1 year younger, and will be much, much cheaper over the next four years than Cobb, I'd rather take a long look at what it would take to acquire him than hamstring your budget on a starter that isn't a difference maker.

Sure, you can't empty the farm for him, but if Archer isn't moved this offseason and Tampa gets off to a rough 2018 start, stars may align for the Brewers to try trading for him at this year's deadline. By then they'd have a much better idea on Nelson's status, too. If they are 1/2 way into next year and their 40 man roster crunch is that much closer, DS is going to have a pile of controllable arms/prospects that were here before his tenure started who are going to have their best value to the Brewer organization as trade bait.


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Offline  Re: Alex Cobb
#32

Posted: January 03, 2018, 8:27 AM Post
Posts: 10914
Bruce Levine says Cobb looking for $17-19 million per year. Cubs balked at that price. I think Brewers could be players at the lower end of that, but not for more than 4 years tops. That would be an overpay but not a drastic one.


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Offline  Re: Alex Cobb
#33

Posted: January 03, 2018, 8:48 AM Post
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I would rather get Archer, and tolerate the prospects given up. Archer’s performance and saving a draft pick is better than Cobb’s performance and price in my opinion.


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Offline  Re: Alex Cobb
#34

Posted: January 03, 2018, 9:31 AM Post
Posts: 10914
benji said:
I would rather get Archer, and tolerate the prospects given up. Archer’s performance and saving a draft pick is better than Cobb’s performance and price in my opinion.


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Either way they will overpay. If you look at Cobb vs. Archer, they are actually very close performance wise. One has a 3.50 career ERA and a 3.68 caree FIP and the other has a 3.63 career ERA and a 3.46 FIP pitching in the same park. Their career WHIP is nearly identical. Archer is the flashier of the two because he strikes out a lot.

I'd roll the dice on Cobb, because if he fails or gets hurt, he can be replaced with a minimum salary young arm. If Archer fails or gets hurt, they'd have one or two less young arms around to replace him. Cobb is another year removed from surgery and thus some progression from a decent 2017 is reasonable. Last year they paid Garza $12 million or so to be the 5th starter. For roughly an extra $5 million you can get a guy who's no worse than a #3 and only give up a draft pick and still have room to sign Walker. Brewers can afford a $100 million payroll if not a bit more. Revenues are up from 4-5 years ago substantially. With a team that fell one game short last year, anything less short changes a loyal fan base. I like Cobb more than Lynn because teams in the NL are less familiar with Cobb than Lynn.


Last edited by JohnBriggs12 on January 03, 2018, 9:45 AM, edited 1 time in total.

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Offline  Re: Alex Cobb
#35

Posted: January 03, 2018, 9:44 AM Post
Posts: 1035
Location: New Berlin, WI
JohnBriggs12 said:
benji said:
I would rather get Archer, and tolerate the prospects given up. Archer’s performance and saving a draft pick is better than Cobb’s performance and price in my opinion.


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk


Either way they will overpay. If you look at Cobb vs. Archer, they are actually very close performance wise. One has a 3.50 career ERA and a 3.68 caree FIP and the other has a 3.63 career ERA and a 3.46 FIP pitching in the same park. Their career WHIP is nearly identical. Archer is the flashier of the two because he strikes out a lot.

I'd roll the dice on Cobb, because if he fails or gets hurt, he can be replaced with a minimum salary young arm. If Archer fails or gets hurt, they'd have one or two less young arms around to replace him. Cobb is another year removed from surgery and thus some progression from a decent 2017 is reasonable.


They actually aren't all that close performance-wise. One guys consistently posts high inning totals while the other you'd be lucky to get 160 innings from. Those 40-50 innings might be filled with someone like Wilkerson/Jungmann and a likely low 5s ERA.


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Offline  Re: Alex Cobb
#36

Posted: January 03, 2018, 9:53 AM Post
Posts: 10914
KeithStone53151 said:
JohnBriggs12 said:
benji said:
I would rather get Archer, and tolerate the prospects given up. Archer’s performance and saving a draft pick is better than Cobb’s performance and price in my opinion.


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk


Either way they will overpay. If you look at Cobb vs. Archer, they are actually very close performance wise. One has a 3.50 career ERA and a 3.68 caree FIP and the other has a 3.63 career ERA and a 3.46 FIP pitching in the same park. Their career WHIP is nearly identical. Archer is the flashier of the two because he strikes out a lot.

I'd roll the dice on Cobb, because if he fails or gets hurt, he can be replaced with a minimum salary young arm. If Archer fails or gets hurt, they'd have one or two less young arms around to replace him. Cobb is another year removed from surgery and thus some progression from a decent 2017 is reasonable.


They actually aren't all that close performance-wise. One guys consistently posts high inning totals while the other you'd be lucky to get 160 innings from. Those 40-50 innings might be filled with someone like Wilkerson/Jungmann and a likely low 5s ERA.


Cobb threw more innings in 2017 than anytime in his career, more than any Brewer other than Davies, and he averaged more innings per start than Davies. The only 2 starts he missed in 2017 were for turf toe. Had he made those two starts, he'd have exceeded 190 innings. He's good to go.


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Offline  Re: Alex Cobb
#37

Posted: January 03, 2018, 10:00 AM Post
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Posts: 1473
KeithStone53151 said:
JohnBriggs12 said:
benji said:
I would rather get Archer, and tolerate the prospects given up. Archer’s performance and saving a draft pick is better than Cobb’s performance and price in my opinion.


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk


Either way they will overpay. If you look at Cobb vs. Archer, they are actually very close performance wise. One has a 3.50 career ERA and a 3.68 caree FIP and the other has a 3.63 career ERA and a 3.46 FIP pitching in the same park. Their career WHIP is nearly identical. Archer is the flashier of the two because he strikes out a lot.

I'd roll the dice on Cobb, because if he fails or gets hurt, he can be replaced with a minimum salary young arm. If Archer fails or gets hurt, they'd have one or two less young arms around to replace him. Cobb is another year removed from surgery and thus some progression from a decent 2017 is reasonable.


They actually aren't all that close performance-wise. One guys consistently posts high inning totals while the other you'd be lucky to get 160 innings from. Those 40-50 innings might be filled with someone like Wilkerson/Jungmann and a likely low 5s ERA.


Cobb got drilled in the head by a liner and had Tommy John. So he's over Tommy John for a little while, we'd hope, and had a fluky liner to the head.

Archer has been healthy. However, he throws a ton of hard sliders and high velocity. If his elbow starts to weaken and the slider % goes down or velocity goes down that is cause for concern. Plus, that many sliders still scares me that he'd have Tommy John somewhere in the 2019 range.

You're right that he's been more durable than Cobb but I almost think he's a higher risk for the next 4 years.


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Offline  Re: Alex Cobb
#38

Posted: January 03, 2018, 10:03 AM Post
Posts: 579
Location: Madison, WI
Durability would still be the #1 thing I'd look at if making a major acquisition. In that category there is simply no comparison between the two. We'll start with 2013 as that was Archer's first season with 20+ starts. In the last five years Archer has 937 2/3 innings, so a 188 inning/year average and that's with only making 23 starts that first season. Over that same timeframe Cobb has thrown 511 innings for a 128 inning/year average. Archer has been over 200 innings each of the last three years and Cobb has never cracked the 180 inning mark.

I've been a big proponent of obtaining a injury-riddled pitcher like Ryu and would be more than willing to do that for the cost of 7 million and a couple fringe prospects. But when a guy is asking 90 million and probably will end up with a 4 year deal in the 56-58 million dollar range, I'd have absolutely no interest if he can't get to 180 innings and Cobb hasn't done that once.


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Offline  Re: Alex Cobb
#39

Posted: January 03, 2018, 10:15 AM Post
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There's a lot of risk with both guys. I just don't see Stearns making this kind of move right now for either pitcher. A trade for Cobb BEFORE last year seems more his style.

"Dustin Pedroia doesn't have the strength or bat speed to hit major-league pitching consistently, and he has no power......He probably has a future as a backup infielder if he can stop rolling over to third base and shortstop." Keith Law, 2006


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Offline  Re: Alex Cobb
#40

Posted: January 03, 2018, 10:15 AM Post
Posts: 2428
IMO, Cobb will cost too much for the production he'd provide and also costs the team a draft pick if the Brewers sign him. IIRC, the Garza signing was viewed as purely a financial commitment, because he didn't cost the Brewers a pick. Small market teams need to be very cautious about free agency to preserve their draft picks more often than not.

It is very surprising to me that none of the marquee free agent starters have been signed, yet. Definitely an unprecedented game of chicken being played by all parties at this point, likely driven by big market teams' drive to stay under the luxury tax threshold and small market teams' reluctance to give up draft picks and hamstring their payroll flexibility. With what relievers are getting, I'm surprised the quality arms that will provide 3x the innings pitched aren't being prioritized.

At this stage, TB's demands for Archer may be too steep for the Brewers to acquire him, but if they are willing to accept a mix of prospects that won't decimate the farm, it's worth the Brewers to explore trading for him. His contract is basically what Lucroy's last deal was in terms of value through their prime years at their respective positions, perhaps even better.

All pitchers have injury risk every time they take the mound, so I'm hesitant to try and prognosticate when one's about to break. Historical durability is definitely an advantage for Archer, but I'd focus on his better K rate when comparing both pitchers moving from Tampa's home park to Miller Park


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