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Alex Cobb (Part 1)

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Offline KeithStone53151 Re: Alex Cobb
#61

Posted: January 05, 2018, 11:25 AM Post
Posts: 2256
Location: New Berlin, WI
Warning Track Power said:
http://www.bleachernation.com/2018/01/05/report-cubs-original-offer-to-alex-cobb-was-three-years-and-42-million/

According to this, the Cubs offer for Cobb was 3 years $42 million. If this is what it would take now, while not loving it, I think I would be comfortable with the Brewers offering this. I wouldn't be happy or sad either way if he accepted or rejected it.


If this is accurate, I could see getting involved at that price/years arena. That's roughly a similar offer to what they made to Chatwood though, and I think it's safe to say from a production/talent standpoint that Cobb > Chatwood. I have to believe Cobb is getting 4 year offers of at least $12-15 million per at his age/talent level though.
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Offline mlloyd10 Re: Alex Cobb
#62

Posted: January 05, 2018, 1:02 PM Post
Posts: 414
i'd offer 3/49.9

No pick
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Offline NOMAAM Re: Alex Cobb
#63

Posted: January 05, 2018, 10:37 PM Post
Posts: 182
mlloyd10 said:
i'd offer 3/49.9

No pick


I'd do that an offer a vesting option based on inngs pitched. Something like 18 Million if he meets 400 inngs. If not reached becomes team option with buyout.
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Offline JohnBriggs12 Re: Alex Cobb
#64

Posted: January 06, 2018, 8:06 AM Post
Posts: 11461
Heyman is saying Cobb wants 4 years and a guaranteed $70 million. That's still an overpay but not far off from what it will take. I think Brewers should jump on 4 years $60 million myself. They could pay $14 million per year for 4 seasons with an option for a 5th or a $4 million buyout without stretching payroll so much that they couldn't still add a Walker or even Cain if they wanted to be bold and deal for another starter.
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Offline JosephC Re: Alex Cobb
#65

Posted: January 06, 2018, 9:23 AM Post
Posts: 975
Location: Madison, WI
Cobb is halfway to getting signed now that he's down from 5 years to 4. Now he just has to drop that annual value down from 17.5 million to 14.5 million and teams will be ready to move.
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Offline Mr Southpaw Re: Alex Cobb
#66

Posted: January 06, 2018, 9:53 AM Post
Posts: 638
2018 $16.0 million
2019 $14.5 million
2020 $13.0 million
2021 $13.0 million with $2.5 million team buyout option

4 year $56.5 million or 3 year $46.0 million

Anymore and I think I would pass.
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Offline Eye Black Re: Alex Cobb
#67

Posted: January 06, 2018, 11:12 AM Post
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Posts: 3273
Signing Alex Cobb would give the Brewers a 4th starting pitcher that finished in the top 20 in ground ball percentage among qualified starting pitchers (162+ IP) last season.

#9 Jimmy Nelson (50.3 GB%)
#10 Zach Davies (50.2 GB%)
#14 Jhoulys Chacin (49.1 GB%)
#19 Alex Cobb (47.8 GB%)

In Cobb’s 2014 season he tied with Felix Hernandez for the third highest ground ball rate among qualified starting pitchers at 56.2%.

With added emphasis on launch angle and hitters focused on elevating the ball, as well as speculation of the ball composition effecting it’s travel distance, it seems possible the Brewers are focused on finding ground ball inducing starting pitchers.

We also know they were in mid-season trade discussions surrounding Sonny Gray, a pitcher that has finished well north of a 50% ground ball rate every year of his major league career, and finished 5th overall last season with a 52.8 GB%.

BTW, last year’s leader in GB% among qualified starting pitchers was Marcus Stroman (62.1 GB%) whom I wouldn’t be shocked to see the Brewers target via trade at some point if the stars align.
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Offline TooLiveBrew Re: Alex Cobb
#68

Posted: January 06, 2018, 11:29 AM Post
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Brewerfan Jedi
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Posts: 20111
Eye Black at Night said:
Signing Alex Cobb would give the Brewers a 4th starting pitcher that finished in the top 20 in ground ball percentage among qualified starting pitchers (162+ IP) last season.

#9 Jimmy Nelson (50.3 GB%)
#10 Zach Davies (50.2 GB%)
#14 Jhoulys Chacin (49.1 GB%)
#19 Alex Cobb (47.8 GB%)

In Cobb’s 2014 season he tied with Felix Hernandez for the third highest ground ball rate among qualified starting pitchers at 56.2%.

With added emphasis on launch angle and hitters focused on elevating the ball, as well as speculation of the ball composition effecting it’s travel distance, it seems possible the Brewers are focused on finding ground ball inducing starting pitchers.

We also know they were in mid-season trade discussions surrounding Sonny Gray, a pitcher that has finished well north of a 50% ground ball rate every year of his major league career, and finished 5th overall last season with a 52.8 GB%.

BTW, last year’s leader in GB% among qualified starting pitchers was Marcus Stroman (62.1 GB%) whom I wouldn’t be shocked to see the Brewers target via trade at some point if the stars align.

Good catch, Eye Black. I hadn't noticed this.
Stearns Brewing Co.: Sustainability from farm to plate
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Offline KeithStone53151 Re: Alex Cobb
#69

Posted: January 06, 2018, 11:35 AM Post
Posts: 2256
Location: New Berlin, WI
TooLiveBrew said:
Eye Black at Night said:
Signing Alex Cobb would give the Brewers a 4th starting pitcher that finished in the top 20 in ground ball percentage among qualified starting pitchers (162+ IP) last season.

#9 Jimmy Nelson (50.3 GB%)
#10 Zach Davies (50.2 GB%)
#14 Jhoulys Chacin (49.1 GB%)
#19 Alex Cobb (47.8 GB%)

In Cobb’s 2014 season he tied with Felix Hernandez for the third highest ground ball rate among qualified starting pitchers at 56.2%.

With added emphasis on launch angle and hitters focused on elevating the ball, as well as speculation of the ball composition effecting it’s travel distance, it seems possible the Brewers are focused on finding ground ball inducing starting pitchers.

We also know they were in mid-season trade discussions surrounding Sonny Gray, a pitcher that has finished well north of a 50% ground ball rate every year of his major league career, and finished 5th overall last season with a 52.8 GB%.

BTW, last year’s leader in GB% among qualified starting pitchers was Marcus Stroman (62.1 GB%) whom I wouldn’t be shocked to see the Brewers target via trade at some point if the stars align.

Good catch, Eye Black. I hadn't noticed this.


Add to your point, Jeffress and Logan are heavy groundball pitchers as well on the relief side that were either brought in or extended. I still don't like the move for Cobb unless it gets close to the $40-50 million range, but there's definitely a ton of value in finding pitchers that keep hitters from elevating the ball.
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Offline BestInTheWorld Re: Alex Cobb
#70

Posted: January 06, 2018, 12:01 PM Post
Posts: 795
Mr Southpaw said:
2018 $16.0 million
2019 $14.5 million
2020 $13.0 million
2021 $13.0 million with $2.5 million team buyout option

4 year $56.5 million or 3 year $46.0 million

Anymore and I think I would pass.


I would love to add Cobb at that price.

Anderson
Cobb
Davies
Chacin
Woodruff

Then add someone like Oh or Hernandez as another set up.

Knebel
Hader
Oh/Hernandez
Logan
Barnes
Jeffress
Gallardo

I would love this staff!
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Offline BrewCrewBlueDevil Re: Alex Cobb
#71

Posted: January 06, 2018, 4:19 PM Post
Posts: 270
Subtract Gallardo or Jeffers and add Taylor Williams.
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Offline Eye Black Re: Alex Cobb
#72

Posted: January 21, 2018, 9:06 AM Post
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Posts: 3273
Nothing groundbreaking, but some frustration expressed from Alex Cobb on the slowly developing free agent market in this Tampa Bay Times Article. Brewers mentioned among the many teams in contact with Cobb.
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Offline Joey Meyer Bombs Re: Alex Cobb
#73

Posted: January 23, 2018, 11:12 AM Post
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Posts: 2429
Eye Black said:
Nothing groundbreaking, but some frustration expressed from Alex Cobb on the slowly developing free agent market in this Tampa Bay Times Article. Brewers mentioned among the many teams in contact with Cobb.


I imagine Cobb will sign with a new team relatively quickly after Darvish is off the market. I kinda group him in with Arrieta and Lynn, then I guess Cashner, Garcia and Vargas? Then Tillman and Hellickson. Pretty big drop-off after those first four. Makes the Brewers' deal with Chacin look even better.
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Offline Joey Meyer Bombs Re: Alex Cobb
#74

Posted: February 07, 2018, 1:33 PM Post
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Posts: 2429
Well, it's only speculation at this point, but Bob Nightengale is predicting the Brewers to sign Cobb. I'd be ok with that, as it isn't near the financial risk it would be to sign Arrieta or Darvish. Cobb also has a lot less milage on his arm.

https://www.usatoday.com/story/sports/m ... 315148002/
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Offline 82brewcrew82 Re: Alex Cobb
#75

Posted: February 07, 2018, 1:37 PM Post
Posts: 1580
Joey Meyer Bombs said:
Well, it's only speculation at this point, but Bob Nightengale is predicting the Brewers to sign Cobb. I'd be ok with that, as it isn't near the financial risk it would be to sign Arrieta or Darvish. Cobb also has a lot less milage on his arm.

https://www.usatoday.com/story/sports/m ... 315148002/

Yeah, he may have some info that drives that but it's really just one of those prediction articles like the ones that come out when free agency starts. Having said that, I'm not sure I would like that move. I've seen a lot of informed back and forth as to his value/quality but I'm not sold either way yet.
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Offline KeithStone53151 Re: Alex Cobb
#76

Posted: February 07, 2018, 1:42 PM Post
Posts: 2256
Location: New Berlin, WI
Joey Meyer Bombs said:
Well, it's only speculation at this point, but Bob Nightengale is predicting the Brewers to sign Cobb. I'd be ok with that, as it isn't near the financial risk it would be to sign Arrieta or Darvish. Cobb also has a lot less milage on his arm.

https://www.usatoday.com/story/sports/m ... 315148002/


Unrelated to Cobb...oh my goodness will Holland feel stupid if he settles for 2/25 instead of the 3/52 that was reportedly offered to him before it went to Davis.

I wouldn't hate that contract, I'd prefer lower dollars as I don't think he's worth $16 million per year.

As for the rest of the predictions, most of them seem fairly logical except the Moustakas one. I don't know why so many writers feel like the yankees deserve all the good players for extreme discounts.
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Offline Joey Meyer Bombs Re: Alex Cobb
#77

Posted: February 07, 2018, 1:43 PM Post
User avatar
Posts: 2429
82brewcrew82 said:
Joey Meyer Bombs said:
Well, it's only speculation at this point, but Bob Nightengale is predicting the Brewers to sign Cobb. I'd be ok with that, as it isn't near the financial risk it would be to sign Arrieta or Darvish. Cobb also has a lot less milage on his arm.

https://www.usatoday.com/story/sports/m ... 315148002/

Yeah, he may have some info that drives that but it's really just one of those prediction articles like the ones that come out when free agency starts. Having said that, I'm not sure I would like that move. I've seen a lot of informed back and forth as to his value/quality but I'm not sold either way yet.


Cobb strikes me as one of those "better stuff than results" types. I guess it would depend on what the contract is. Stuff-wise I'd say he's better than Chase Anderson, so it would be a matter of whether a move from the AL to the NL will help his numbers significantly, and if Derek Johnson can coax better results similar to what he's done with Nelson and Anderson. Cobb wouldn't be the flashiest signing, but it also wouldn't surprise me to see him be the most productive of the "Big 4" two seasons from now.
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Offline brewmann04 Re: Alex Cobb
#78

Posted: February 07, 2018, 1:44 PM Post
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Posts: 8770
I still think they will come away with one of the 4FA pitchers. As the season gets closer they will start to sign for less than what the believe they were worth
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Offline KeithStone53151 Re: Alex Cobb
#79

Posted: February 07, 2018, 1:45 PM Post
Posts: 2256
Location: New Berlin, WI
brewmann04 said:
I still think they will come away with one of the 4FA pitchers. As the season gets closer they will start to sign for less than what the believe they were worth


I'm going to take that as "as the season gets closer, they will start to sign for what they are actually worth"
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Offline 82brewcrew82 Re: Alex Cobb
#80

Posted: February 07, 2018, 1:56 PM Post
Posts: 1580
Joey Meyer Bombs said:
82brewcrew82 said:
Joey Meyer Bombs said:
Well, it's only speculation at this point, but Bob Nightengale is predicting the Brewers to sign Cobb. I'd be ok with that, as it isn't near the financial risk it would be to sign Arrieta or Darvish. Cobb also has a lot less milage on his arm.

https://www.usatoday.com/story/sports/m ... 315148002/

Yeah, he may have some info that drives that but it's really just one of those prediction articles like the ones that come out when free agency starts. Having said that, I'm not sure I would like that move. I've seen a lot of informed back and forth as to his value/quality but I'm not sold either way yet.


Cobb strikes me as one of those "better stuff than results" types. I guess it would depend on what the contract is. Stuff-wise I'd say he's better than Chase Anderson, so it would be a matter of whether a move from the AL to the NL will help his numbers significantly, and if Derek Johnson can coax better results similar to what he's done with Nelson and Anderson. Cobb wouldn't be the flashiest signing, but it also wouldn't surprise me to see him be the most productive of the "Big 4" two seasons from now.

That seems like reasonable take. My answer, then, would be that I'd be fine with that if they added another starter besides him. He alone is not the answer in my opinion.
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