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Lorenzo Cain

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Offline  Re: Lorenzo Cain
Posted: January 13, 2018, 9:46 AM Post
Posts: 3280
Location: New Berlin, WI
JohnBriggs12 said:
reillymcshane said:
Regarding Brinson - I would keep him over Phillips. Yes, Brinson has had injury issues. But the guy has the tools and talent to be an all star level player in the majors. None of our bats has that capability in the upper minors of our system.

Milwaukee has a lot of solid players right now - but we need to add exceptional players to take us to the next level. Brinson has that potential.

I'm not saying that Phillips won't be a good player - but his hit tool is a concern. He looked good in his short time he was in Milwaukee, but he's not going to sustain a .400+ BABIP going forward like he did last year.

Brinson is no perfect player - and I think he will have his own growing pains in the majors - but his reward can be massive if things come together.

Personally, I'd love to see Phillips and Brinson in our outfield next year. Lo Cain is a good player - but I'd rather roll the dice with our young guys.


Nobody questions the tools and talent for Brinson. But tools and talent don't always equal production (see Jason Heyward). He seemed overmatched in his first taste against major league pitching and this is a guy who fanned 191 times in low A ball. Since 2015, he's spent most of his time in very hitter friendly environments. To his credit, he's produced like he should there and the strikeout rate has come down considerably but there has to be some concerns.


So he looked overmatched in his first 20 mlb games? That doesn't concern me at all. He also looked significantly better in his second stint than the first one if you want to put value on a handful of games. Injury issues concern me more than a 20 game stint, but neither are overly concerning. I'm expecting him to start a bit slow and ramp up to being very productive by mid season.


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Offline  Re: Lorenzo Cain
Posted: January 13, 2018, 12:21 PM Post
Posts: 542
JohnBriggs12 said:
reillymcshane said:
Regarding Brinson - I would keep him over Phillips. Yes, Brinson has had injury issues. But the guy has the tools and talent to be an all star level player in the majors. None of our bats has that capability in the upper minors of our system.

Milwaukee has a lot of solid players right now - but we need to add exceptional players to take us to the next level. Brinson has that potential.

I'm not saying that Phillips won't be a good player - but his hit tool is a concern. He looked good in his short time he was in Milwaukee, but he's not going to sustain a .400+ BABIP going forward like he did last year.

Brinson is no perfect player - and I think he will have his own growing pains in the majors - but his reward can be massive if things come together.

Personally, I'd love to see Phillips and Brinson in our outfield next year. Lo Cain is a good player - but I'd rather roll the dice with our young guys.


Nobody questions the tools and talent for Brinson. But tools and talent don't always equal production (see Jason Heyward). He seemed overmatched in his first taste against major league pitching and this is a guy who fanned 191 times in low A ball. Since 2015, he's spent most of his time in very hitter friendly environments. To his credit, he's produced like he should there and the strikeout rate has come down considerably but there has to be some concerns.


55 plate appearances. He had a BABIP of .107. This for a guy who had the 17th highest average exit velocity in MLB and who is a very good runner. Or in other words, it's likely a matter of a small sample size and bad luck. There are adjustments to make, something his strikeout rate in the minors has shown that he can, but even if he does exactly the same thing he has done in his 55 PAs so far over his next 600, the results will be significantly better.

Injuries are the only concern for me, but nowhere near enough to make me want to trade him. It's a player with a very high upside, this close to the majors who will be under team control for the years we expect to be competitive. You roll with that and give him every chance to make it in Milwaukee. He's one of the last outfielders in the entire system we should be looking to trade at this point IMO.


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Offline  Re: Lorenzo Cain
Posted: January 24, 2018, 11:33 PM Post
Posts: 457
Location: Milwaukee
MLB Trade rumors is reporting Lo Cain has multiple 4 year offers on the table and narrowing down teams. That's a lot for 31 year old who is already on the decline. I'm not sure how I feel about this. If we sign him it means a number of other things have happened (santana / Brinson traded).


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Online  Re: Lorenzo Cain
Posted: January 24, 2018, 11:49 PM Post
Posts: 15289
Lathund said:
JohnBriggs12 said:
reillymcshane said:
Regarding Brinson - I would keep him over Phillips. Yes, Brinson has had injury issues. But the guy has the tools and talent to be an all star level player in the majors. None of our bats has that capability in the upper minors of our system.

Milwaukee has a lot of solid players right now - but we need to add exceptional players to take us to the next level. Brinson has that potential.

I'm not saying that Phillips won't be a good player - but his hit tool is a concern. He looked good in his short time he was in Milwaukee, but he's not going to sustain a .400+ BABIP going forward like he did last year.

Brinson is no perfect player - and I think he will have his own growing pains in the majors - but his reward can be massive if things come together.

Personally, I'd love to see Phillips and Brinson in our outfield next year. Lo Cain is a good player - but I'd rather roll the dice with our young guys.


Nobody questions the tools and talent for Brinson. But tools and talent don't always equal production (see Jason Heyward). He seemed overmatched in his first taste against major league pitching and this is a guy who fanned 191 times in low A ball. Since 2015, he's spent most of his time in very hitter friendly environments. To his credit, he's produced like he should there and the strikeout rate has come down considerably but there has to be some concerns.


55 plate appearances. He had a BABIP of .107. This for a guy who had the 17th highest average exit velocity in MLB and who is a very good runner. Or in other words, it's likely a matter of a small sample size and bad luck. There are adjustments to make, something his strikeout rate in the minors has shown that he can, but even if he does exactly the same thing he has done in his 55 PAs so far over his next 600, the results will be significantly better.

Injuries are the only concern for me, but nowhere near enough to make me want to trade him. It's a player with a very high upside, this close to the majors who will be under team control for the years we expect to be competitive. You roll with that and give him every chance to make it in Milwaukee. He's one of the last outfielders in the entire system we should be looking to trade at this point IMO.


I agree with many of your points about Brinson, but I don't understand the mentality of not wanting to trade a guy because of how valuable he is. Brinson being valuable to us is exactly why he's valuable to everyone else. Valuable players bring back valuable players.

IMO we should never limit who we're willing to trade. It's not about looking to trade him, it's about what would be required to get the kinds of players we are looking for.


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Offline  Re: Lorenzo Cain
Posted: January 25, 2018, 7:06 AM Post
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Posts: 4745
I want Lorenzo Cain on the 2018 Brewers, but I do not want a player signed to a four-year deal through age 35.

I really like him, but I wouldn’t do it.


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Offline  Re: Lorenzo Cain
Posted: January 25, 2018, 7:13 AM Post
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Posts: 849
How is his defense? Is it still really good? I have a hard time understanding defensive metrics so maybe one of you can more accurately tell me.


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Online  Re: Lorenzo Cain
Posted: January 25, 2018, 7:31 AM Post
User avatar
Posts: 4664
Location: Three Lakes, WI
MVP2110 said:
How is his defense? Is it still really good? I have a hard time understanding defensive metrics so maybe one of you can more accurately tell me.


According to https://www.royalsreview.com/2017/8/3/1 ... -this-year, it is trending downward, but considering he was considered an elite talent in CF only a couple years ago, he'd still be considered serviceable out there. Of course, if we are talking about a 4-year deal, and the trend continues, things don't look great once you get into 2020 territory. Is it possible that he remains an above-average defender and hitter into his mid 30s? Sure ... but not likely.


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Offline  Re: Lorenzo Cain
Posted: January 25, 2018, 7:48 AM Post
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Posts: 849
Joey Meyer Bombs said:
MVP2110 said:
How is his defense? Is it still really good? I have a hard time understanding defensive metrics so maybe one of you can more accurately tell me.


According to https://www.royalsreview.com/2017/8/3/1 ... -this-year, it is trending downward, but considering he was considered an elite talent in CF only a couple years ago, he'd still be considered serviceable out there. Of course, if we are talking about a 4-year deal, and the trend continues, things don't look great once you get into 2020 territory. Is it possible that he remains an above-average defender and hitter into his mid 30s? Sure ... but not likely.


Thank you, I knew he was once considered elite out there. Wasn't sure if he still was. I am not sure he has the bat to be able to play a corner spot so if he isn't going to be great in center than I agree I would probably pass.


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Online  Re: Lorenzo Cain
Posted: January 25, 2018, 7:53 AM Post
Posts: 9362
Lorenzo Cain’s stat line last year is such a tease because it is exactly what we could use on this team. That being said I can’t help but think how terrible a 4+ year deal with him would likely end up being. His game depends on his speed and defense which is going the wrong way. I don’t really want a long term OF featuring two poor defenders and an average one in CF.


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Offline  Re: Lorenzo Cain
Posted: January 25, 2018, 8:39 AM Post
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Posts: 849
I will say, while I'm not a fan of signing him on a big four year deal, putting him and Yelich at the top of our lineup would be a lot of fun with their OBP's


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Offline  Re: Lorenzo Cain
Posted: January 25, 2018, 8:55 AM Post
Posts: 3360
Location: Madison, WI
Cain is certainly enticing for the upcoming season for the reasons said of good contact skills being so needed in our lineup, but a 4 year deal taking him to age 35 I'm very skeptical on, assuming you're talking 15ish mil per year. When you have a guy in Santan controlled for the same 4 years for almost no money who had a 370 obp last year. Just not sure why we're jumping through hoops to make this happen by dumping Santana instead of just putting the resources into pitching. Seems much more easily accomplished. And our top two prospects can play CF for free the next few years.


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Offline  Re: Lorenzo Cain
Posted: January 25, 2018, 9:14 AM Post
Posts: 11656
tmwiese55 said:
Cain is certainly enticing for the upcoming season for the reasons said of good contact skills being so needed in our lineup, but a 4 year deal taking him to age 35 I'm very skeptical on, assuming you're talking 15ish mil per year. When you have a guy in Santan controlled for the same 4 years for almost no money who had a 370 obp last year. Just not sure why we're jumping through hoops to make this happen by dumping Santana instead of just putting the resources into pitching. Seems much more easily accomplished. And our top two prospects can play CF for free the next few years.


I know the trend in baseball is to youth, but my goodness the Brewers signed Aramis Ramirez to what turned out to be a 4 year $46 million deal when he was entering his age 34 season and he had a much less athletic body than does Cain. Granted wasn't as much money, but revenues in baseball are up considerably since 2012. Yeah the game has tilted toward youth, but 2012 is not that long ago and Cain has shown no signs he's anything but still in his prime. $15-16 million per year is far from outrageous for a player of his age and production. The Cubs are on the hook for $22 million a year for Heyward's age 32 and 33 seasons and he's not half the player Cain is right now. Who would you rather have the next 4 years, Heyward at $90 million (plus two more years at $44 million) or Cain even though he's older at $60-65 million total and no obligation after that? Cain's can be moved in that time too for a decent return barring a complete collapse.


Last edited by JohnBriggs12 on January 25, 2018, 9:24 AM, edited 1 time in total.

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Online  Re: Lorenzo Cain
Posted: January 25, 2018, 9:22 AM Post
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Posts: 10644
Location: Milwaukee, WI
JohnBriggs12 said:
tmwiese55 said:
Cain is certainly enticing for the upcoming season for the reasons said of good contact skills being so needed in our lineup, but a 4 year deal taking him to age 35 I'm very skeptical on, assuming you're talking 15ish mil per year. When you have a guy in Santan controlled for the same 4 years for almost no money who had a 370 obp last year. Just not sure why we're jumping through hoops to make this happen by dumping Santana instead of just putting the resources into pitching. Seems much more easily accomplished. And our top two prospects can play CF for free the next few years.


I know the trend in baseball is to youth, but my goodness the Brewers signed Aramis Ramirez to what turned out to be a 4 year $46 million deal when he was entering his age 34 season and he had a much less athletic body than does Cain. Granted wasn't as much money, but revenues in baseball are up considerably since 2012. Yeah the game has tilted toward youth, but 2012 is not that long ago.


I would completely agree with you if we had the black hole like we did at third base. Until we move some of our outfielders, it just doesn't make sense to make a splash with a player like Cain when we could be seeing what Brinson/Phillips can do for us out there.


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Offline  Re: Lorenzo Cain
Posted: January 25, 2018, 9:30 AM Post
Posts: 25
My take on Cain is that the Brewers have made a 3 year offer, and at this point, it is the best offer. Cain's agent is putting out info. that he has multiple 4 year offers on the table in order to get the Brewers to go to a 4th year, even though there are no 4 year offers that have been made at this point.


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Offline  Re: Lorenzo Cain
Posted: January 25, 2018, 9:32 AM Post
Posts: 11656
Brew4U said:
JohnBriggs12 said:
tmwiese55 said:
Cain is certainly enticing for the upcoming season for the reasons said of good contact skills being so needed in our lineup, but a 4 year deal taking him to age 35 I'm very skeptical on, assuming you're talking 15ish mil per year. When you have a guy in Santan controlled for the same 4 years for almost no money who had a 370 obp last year. Just not sure why we're jumping through hoops to make this happen by dumping Santana instead of just putting the resources into pitching. Seems much more easily accomplished. And our top two prospects can play CF for free the next few years.


I know the trend in baseball is to youth, but my goodness the Brewers signed Aramis Ramirez to what turned out to be a 4 year $46 million deal when he was entering his age 34 season and he had a much less athletic body than does Cain. Granted wasn't as much money, but revenues in baseball are up considerably since 2012. Yeah the game has tilted toward youth, but 2012 is not that long ago.


I would completely agree with you if we had the black hole like we did at third base. Until we move some of our outfielders, it just doesn't make sense to make a splash with a player like Cain when we could be seeing what Brinson/Phillips can do for us out there.


At some point you stop seeing what guys can do and you make an attempt to win with known quantities. It's the same thing with waiting an hoping for a guy like Villar to rebound. Cain's a proven outfield talent. Phillips and Brinson are not. CF was a black hole in 2017. The guy who saw the most action there hit .220 and fanned 175 times. Cain or Yelich would improve the current roster immediately, and not just for 2018. Cain would allow prospects to be used for pitching.


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Offline  Re: Lorenzo Cain
Posted: January 25, 2018, 9:35 AM Post
User avatar
Global Moderator
Posts: 5594
tmwiese55 said:
Cain is certainly enticing for the upcoming season for the reasons said of good contact skills being so needed in our lineup, but a 4 year deal taking him to age 35 I'm very skeptical on, assuming you're talking 15ish mil per year. When you have a guy in Santan controlled for the same 4 years for almost no money who had a 370 obp last year. Just not sure why we're jumping through hoops to make this happen by dumping Santana instead of just putting the resources into pitching. Seems much more easily accomplished. And our top two prospects can play CF for free the next few years.


This whole thing is intriguing, and really only makes any sense if there are a lot of moving parts.

Braun is our LF for the next 3-4 years. He's not going anywhere, so put an "X" there.

Brinson and maybe Phillips go to Miami to get Yelich, locking up RF for the next five seasons.

Cain gets signed, locking up CF for the next 4 seasons.

Our OF is then more "proven," but also older and more expensive. That would seemingly get made up by trading away Santana for a team-controlled SP and/or 2B, and that would hopefully be a serious upgrade (with a lot of team control) in an area(s) of need. If we get a 2B, then we probably look to trade at least one of Villar/Perez/Sogard, even if that just gets us some teen-aged "lottery chips." If we get a SP, especially if we also sign a FA, then we potentially look to trade Woodruff as we would have a full MLB staff with guys like Burns and Ortiz getting ready to make the move to the majors.

I don't know if this will work out, and it's something I wouldn't have imagined a couple of weeks ago, but it could turn us into a legitimate playoff contender for the next half-decade with just the guys on the MLB roster, while maintaining a lot of talent in the lower minors who will be ready to step up in the next couple of seasons, hopefully extending this out so it's not a "window," but a sustainably good team.

Of course, the concern (if all of this does come together) is that we could have a lot of money in a few seasons going to guys in their mid-30's (Braun, Cain, Darvish/Arrieta/Cobb) and that could blow up on us. The hope would probably be that some of our remaining minor leaguers would be able to step in over the next few seasons to bring down the payroll and fill in if some of the older guys are declining.

Of course, if Stearns is doing all of this now, he will not sit on his hands in the future, so anything I can dream up now will look completely different 12-24 months from now.


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Online  Re: Lorenzo Cain
Posted: January 25, 2018, 9:42 AM Post
User avatar
Posts: 10644
Location: Milwaukee, WI
JohnBriggs12 said:
Brew4U said:

I would completely agree with you if we had the black hole like we did at third base. Until we move some of our outfielders, it just doesn't make sense to make a splash with a player like Cain when we could be seeing what Brinson/Phillips can do for us out there.


At some point you stop seeing what guys can do and you make an attempt to win with known quantities. It's the same thing with waiting an hoping for a guy like Villar to rebound. Cain's a proven outfield talent. Phillips and Brinson are not. CF was a black hole in 2017. The guy who saw the most action there hit .220 and fanned 175 times. Cain or Yelich would improve the current roster immediately, and not just for 2018. Cain would allow prospects to be used for pitching.


We are not at that point if we have Brinson and Phillips on this roster. It would make no sense to not give two top prospects an opportunity. Zero. Zilch. At some point, you just have to find out what these guys can do. This year might be that if no other moves are made.


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Offline  Re: Lorenzo Cain
Posted: January 25, 2018, 9:44 AM Post
Posts: 796
monty57 said:
tmwiese55 said:
Cain is certainly enticing for the upcoming season for the reasons said of good contact skills being so needed in our lineup, but a 4 year deal taking him to age 35 I'm very skeptical on, assuming you're talking 15ish mil per year. When you have a guy in Santan controlled for the same 4 years for almost no money who had a 370 obp last year. Just not sure why we're jumping through hoops to make this happen by dumping Santana instead of just putting the resources into pitching. Seems much more easily accomplished. And our top two prospects can play CF for free the next few years.


This whole thing is intriguing, and really only makes any sense if there are a lot of moving parts.

Braun is our LF for the next 3-4 years. He's not going anywhere, so put an "X" there.

Brinson and maybe Phillips go to Miami to get Yelich, locking up RF for the next five seasons.

Cain gets signed, locking up CF for the next 4 seasons.

Our OF is then more "proven," but also older and more expensive. That would seemingly get made up by trading away Santana for a team-controlled SP and/or 2B, and that would hopefully be a serious upgrade (with a lot of team control) in an area(s) of need. If we get a 2B, then we probably look to trade at least one of Villar/Perez/Sogard, even if that just gets us some teen-aged "lottery chips." If we get a SP, especially if we also sign a FA, then we potentially look to trade Woodruff as we would have a full MLB staff with guys like Burns and Ortiz getting ready to make the move to the majors.

I don't know if this will work out, and it's something I wouldn't have imagined a couple of weeks ago, but it could turn us into a legitimate playoff contender for the next half-decade with just the guys on the MLB roster, while maintaining a lot of talent in the lower minors who will be ready to step up in the next couple of seasons, hopefully extending this out so it's not a "window," but a sustainably good team.

Of course, the concern (if all of this does come together) is that we could have a lot of money in a few seasons going to guys in their mid-30's (Braun, Cain, Darvish/Arrieta/Cobb) and that could blow up on us. The hope would probably be that some of our remaining minor leaguers would be able to step in over the next few seasons to bring down the payroll and fill in if some of the older guys are declining.

Of course, if Stearns is doing all of this now, he will not sit on his hands in the future, so anything I can dream up now will look completely different 12-24 months from now.


Man, Stearns needs to make this happen!

Our OF would look very nice and not to mention about much better our lineup becomes...


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Offline  Re: Lorenzo Cain
Posted: January 25, 2018, 9:45 AM Post
Posts: 4158
You'd have to think Santana would have to be moved 1st for a SP before Cain would be signed. Got to keep in mind, folks on Yelich are suggesting to take on a Castro contract or even Wei Chen's. Yelich costs more. And in no way can you add these guys without addressing Pitching, which has to be in the form of a FA signing if Santana doesn't bring one back initially. +7 Yelich + 10Castro/Chen (13 for Prado) Adding Cain is 15-17mil. You move a near 70 Mil payroll to 101mil with the ~31mil in these deals. IF you take Chen it's 20mil next year. You're wondering if he's even playing for Milwaukee with his stats after that contract. So you still need a SP.

Arrieta is 22.5+
Cobb or Lynn are 14+

You'll have Nelson/Kneble going to arbitration the next season...Villar too if he bounces back BRef has a shocking 45.9mil Arb costs but a lot of these guys won't be on the team that figures on that...Still Just Nelson/Kneble has to add 9-14mil to the Payroll.


Last edited by brewcrewdue80 on January 25, 2018, 9:48 AM, edited 1 time in total.

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Offline  Re: Lorenzo Cain
Posted: January 25, 2018, 9:45 AM Post
Posts: 3360
Location: Madison, WI
I know the trend in baseball is to youth, but my goodness the Brewers signed Aramis Ramirez to what turned out to be a 4 year $46 million deal when he was entering his age 34 season and he had a much less athletic body than does Cain. Granted wasn't as much money, but revenues in baseball are up considerably since 2012. Yeah the game has tilted toward youth, but 2012 is not that long ago.[/quote]

I would completely agree with you if we had the black hole like we did at third base. Until we move some of our outfielders, it just doesn't make sense to make a splash with a player like Cain when we could be seeing what Brinson/Phillips can do for us out there.[/quote]

At some point you stop seeing what guys can do and you make an attempt to win with known quantities. It's the same thing with waiting an hoping for a guy like Villar to rebound. Cain's a proven outfield talent. Phillips and Brinson are not. CF was a black hole in 2017. The guy who saw the most action there hit .220 and fanned 175 times. Cain or Yelich would improve the current roster immediately, and not just for 2018. Cain would allow prospects to be used for pitching.[/quote]



Santana is a proven talent though.

3B requires way less athleticism than OF and we had a blackhole at 3B. We do not at OF. The hole is pitching, let's focus there.

Cain did miss 60 games in 2016. And just a bit of regression to take him from 295/360ish like he is now down to 270/330 is basically what you can get for rookie scale rather than 15 mil per year and combine that with reduced athleticism bring down his D (which is one of his positives now). Hey I get it, I wouldn't have much concern the next two years but the lasat two you might be looking at two OF spots being used by overpaid underperforming guys. All the while you had a 280/370 already on your team that you're paying nothing that you pushed out instead.

Also, Cubs giving Heyward a truly awful contract doesn't mean we should do the same.

And as MKE fans we've been laughing for years at big markets giving out big contracts to 32ish yr old people and then watching them reduce to blah players. Could be natural age progression, could be once you get your last big payday you work a little less. Who knows, but it happens over and over.


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