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Syndergaard and deGrom

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Offline  Re: Syndergaard and deGrom
Posted: July 23, 2018, 7:04 PM Post
Posts: 336
badger3034 said:
What if they don't get that top 10 type and they wait, and then Degrom pitches more like a low 3s era(which is his career norm) rather than cy young caliber season...while the Mets still suck. I highly highly doubt both Burnes and Peralta would be on the table around this time next year in that case. Partially because Degroms value is in the tank and partially because they'll both probably be in our MLB rotation. This is likely peak value for Degrom. Far more often than not, holding your player because you don't like the offers yields a much lower return...just ask the Rays and the likely offers they are now fielding for Archer.


Here’s why our typical lowball offers on here don’t work:

1. Low supply, in DeGroms case nearly one like him; a true ace with lots of control who is actually on the market.
2. Super High demand
3. Most teams want a headliner, not a volume package in a return for an ace.
4. We, like most fanbases, tend to value our prospects way higher than their likely outcome.


Again, look at the Chris Sale trade. Our comparable package to Sale would be something like Hiura, Peralta, and low end prospects. Hiura is roughly equal to Moncada, Peralta is probably not as valuable as Kopech. BUT, Sale's contract was much more team friendly, included more team control, and he was a better and younger pitcher than Degrom(up until what Degrom is doing this year). And at the time, most people thought the Red Sox significantly overpaid for Sale. All signs point to the Degrom return being significantly less than the Sale return.

Or as I've noted, the Mets can wait until the offseason when no team is feeling desperate about reaching the post season and most everyone is healthy. Or they can wait until next deadline, when Degrom likely won't be pitching as well and he has less and more expensive team control. Whatever offer they get this deadline, will likely be the best offer they get for Degrom. Whether that's the offer I outlined or not is definitely up for debate.



As a previous poster in one of these quotes mentioned, we, like most fanbases, tend to value our prospects way higher than their likely outcome. Keston Hiura does not have the potential that Yoan Moncada has. Yes, Moncada is having a down year, but I'm pretty sure every high level exec would think his potential is higher. Also, Peralta is not Kopech, it's not an equal trade. Sale is a better pitcher, but the Mets are going to be looking for a higher price than what we'd be hoping for.



Beat me to it. Moncada was a consensus top 3 prospect in baseball, and Kopech was a top 25 guy when they were traded. Hiura and Peralta don't compare.

this


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Offline  Re: Syndergaard and deGrom
Posted: July 23, 2018, 7:28 PM Post
Posts: 1998
Hiura is being severely overvalued by a portion of this fan base in general.


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Offline  Re: Syndergaard and deGrom
Posted: July 23, 2018, 10:15 PM Post
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DeGrom is a game changer. If the Mets would take Peralta and Hiura +, count me in. I don't know what the + would be but he's one of the few players where if I'm Stearns I open the prospect book and say "Choose"! He's also controllable which is a super big deal. If something goes wrong and the Brewers need to sell after this season, you can recover some of what you gave. Also a long shot, but an extension could maaaybee be had.


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Online  Re: Syndergaard and deGrom
Posted: July 23, 2018, 10:35 PM Post
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superfly said:
Hiura is being severely overvalued by a portion of this fan base in general.

Well, in my opinion, he is being undervalued by some as well.

And for those that believe he is overvalued, it isn’t like it is just solely the fan base that is high on him right now: BP Mid-Season Top 50

Edit: For the record I wouldn’t even rank him nearly as high as BP just did, but I also wouldn’t bet against him developing into a good major league hitter.


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Offline  Re: Syndergaard and deGrom
Posted: July 23, 2018, 10:48 PM Post
Posts: 5668
Location: New Berlin, WI
Eye Black said:
superfly said:
Hiura is being severely overvalued by a portion of this fan base in general.

Well, in my opinion, he is being undervalued by some as well.

And for those that believe he is overvalued, it isn’t like it is just solely the fan base that is high on him right now: BP Mid-Season Top 50


Spot on, Hiura's hit tool is better than Moncada's...the prospect guru's tend to get carried away on tools and sometimes forget that a guy has to hit or all those tools don't matter nearly as much. Don't believe me on that, I present Keon Broxton/Brett Phillips/Lewis Brinson/Monte Harrison.

It's not often you see a prospect come up with a fairly high ceiling but also a very very high floor. I don't think you'd find a single prospect guy who thinks Hiura's floor is lower than a decent regular at 2b. All those guys above could have not made the majors, or be a 220/230 hitter with enough tools to be a 4th OF. Hiura is also more likely to reach his all-star ceiling than most of the players above. Daniel Murphy is a great comp for Hiura, and he's one of the highest paid 2b in baseball for a reason.


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Offline  Re: Syndergaard and deGrom
Posted: July 23, 2018, 10:50 PM Post
Posts: 22289
I think Peralta is being overrated more than Hiura.

Look, I love Freddy Peralta, who doesn't? But he is just not a comparable prospect to Kopech. Kopech is one of the top prospects in baseball and probably has the best fastball in the minors.

What Freddy is doing is great, but there's a reason he was more of an organizational top 10 coming into this year, not an MLB top 10 like Kopech. What he does best (extension and deception), may not be something that teams project as a top of the rotation guy. How many aces out there operate in the low 90s? Who are these comparables?

I hope he can keep it up. He's done extremely well. But here are the first 9 career starts for another Brewer starter:

7 IP, 1 ER
5 IP, 2 ER
6 IP, 4 ER
5 IP, 0 ER
6 IP, 2 ER
8 IP, 1 ER
9 IP, 1 ER
7 IP, 1 ER
6 IP, 2 ER

That pitcher was Taylor Jungmann.

So I do think while we should enjoy what Peralta is bringing in his starts, we need to keep it in perspective for now, and no one is going to give us Kopech comparable value for him.


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Offline  Re: Syndergaard and deGrom
Posted: July 24, 2018, 3:19 AM Post
Posts: 129
Eye Black said:
superfly said:
Hiura is being severely overvalued by a portion of this fan base in general.

Well, in my opinion, he is being undervalued by some as well.

And for those that believe he is overvalued, it isn’t like it is just solely the fan base that is high on him right now: BP Mid-Season Top 50

Edit: For the record I wouldn’t even rank him nearly as high as BP just did, but I also wouldn’t bet against him developing into a good major league hitter.


I dont think anybody was attempting to say he wouldn't be a good baseball player in the future. Just that hiura does not equal moancada, and Peralta does not equal kopech in trade value. Just was making the point that you shouldn't expect as big of a haul for those 2


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Offline  Re: Syndergaard and deGrom
Posted: July 24, 2018, 4:54 AM Post
Posts: 108
Location: Baldwin, WI
At the end of the day, and I am sure this has been mentioned, you in theory have Peralta, Burnes, Nelson, Davies, Guerra, Chacin, and Anderson going into spring next year. Unless you plan on having a 7 man rotation or keeping Burnes in the pen (which they said they weren't gonna do) it makes a ton of sense to trade one of the kids in a deal to get a pitcher of deGrom's caliber. Not necessarily as the main piece, but a piece


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Online  Re: Syndergaard and deGrom
Posted: July 24, 2018, 5:59 AM Post
Posts: 14081
Things that are kind of a given:

Trading a pitcher and trading Brett Phillips. All of these pitchers and Brett Phillips will not be here opening day in 2019.


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Offline  Re: Syndergaard and deGrom
Posted: July 24, 2018, 6:47 AM Post
Posts: 5347
I dont think anybody was attempting to say he wouldn't be a good baseball player in the future. Just that hiura does not equal moancada, and Peralta does not equal kopech in trade value.

At some point, the MLB #'s a young player produces have to start trumping where that player was ranked as a prospect. I'm not meaning this to slight Moncada, as I still think he'll be a very good MLB player. However, Moncada basically started as a top 2-3 prospect from the day he signed that huge bonus with Boston after defecting from Cuba. Those prospect rankings, even towards the top, are very subjective and oftentimes are influenced by popularity contests and timing when a player is knocking on the MLB door compared to when other more talented players get drafted/signed moreso than onfield results. From a raw tools standpoint focused on physical attributes, there's no question Moncada is more impressive than Hiura. He's got to reduce that 33% MLB K rate if he's going to take that next step as a quality big league player. Hiura's hit tool makes the two much more comparable as overall prospects, however Moncada should rightfully still be considered to have the higher upside.

Regarding Kopech, has anyone gushing about his big fastball actually looked at his pitching #'s? He's got a big K rate but also a big walk rate, and he's gotten hit around quite a bit in his first AAA season. I realize his ceiling is higher due to that fastball and he appears to have a good slider, but it looks like he still needs to work alot on command and developing a 3rd pitch to truly be considered an Ace-caliber pitching prospect. He's rated highly because of that fastball, but so was Jose Capellan.

Back on topic, Hiura and Burnes headlining a trade package for Degrom is absolutely something the Mets would strongly consider - however if it becomes known that Degrom is realistically available and the Mets aren't stupid, another one of the big market teams with a loaded farm and a need for a frontline starter would be more willing to completely gut their system and trump the Brewers' best offer. The Yankees would be positioned to actually offer a combo of highly rated prospects and young MLB talent considering that they could be going after Machado or Harper this coming offseason. In fact, the Mets could probably get more value in dealing Degrom this offseason because contending teams this year wouldn't be as adverse to trading MLB assets in the winter they could plan on replacing via free agency.


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Offline  Re: Syndergaard and deGrom
Posted: July 24, 2018, 6:55 AM Post
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Your arguments involving Chris Sale reinforce why the Mets should move deGrom right now.

Sale was 27, and signed for three more years - deGrom is 30, and signed for two after this one.

It doesn’t matter who Moncada is - it’s what the market will pay at the time - deGrom has never pitched better, is older, and offers less control with each start.

New York - it’s time.


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Offline  Re: Syndergaard and deGrom
Posted: July 24, 2018, 7:10 AM Post
Posts: 3134
MrTPlush said:
Things that are kind of a given:

Trading a pitcher and trading Brett Phillips. All of these pitchers and Brett Phillips will not be here opening day in 2019.


I agree. Phillips and Ortiz seem like obvious trade chips. Obviously they weren’t enough for a Machado but they should be enough for lesser pick ups.


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Offline  Re: Syndergaard and deGrom
Posted: July 24, 2018, 7:43 AM Post
Posts: 2279
splitterpfj said:
Your arguments involving Chris Sale reinforce why the Mets should move deGrom right now.

Sale was 27, and signed for three more years - deGrom is 30, and signed for two after this one.

It doesn’t matter who Moncada is - it’s what the market will pay at the time - deGrom has never pitched better, is older, and offers less control with each start.

New York - it’s time.


As much as we need him, we won't feel comfortable parting with what it'll take to get him..... not in this market.


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Offline  Re: Syndergaard and deGrom
Posted: September 17, 2018, 11:42 AM Post
Posts: 2130
Don't know if better to start new thread or not, but thinking next year already -

Would Age 31-33 C.Anderson 3yrs/$24M (Mets need a starter back?), Hiura, Ray, Supak and Ashby be enough for two seasons of age 31-32 DeGrom at arby cost (guessing $24M?) plus hopefully a qualifying offer draft pick at the end?

Rotation: DeGrom, Chacin, Burnes. Davies as probable. Nelson, Woodruff, F.Peralta and Guerra as possibles. Wilkerson, Derby, Houser, Brown as backups.


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Offline  Re: Syndergaard and deGrom
Posted: September 17, 2018, 2:02 PM Post
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I think Wheeler might be a better target (again) because he won't cost an arm and a leg.

"Dustin Pedroia doesn't have the strength or bat speed to hit major-league pitching consistently, and he has no power......He probably has a future as a backup infielder if he can stop rolling over to third base and shortstop." Keith Law, 2006


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Offline  Re: Syndergaard and deGrom
Posted: September 17, 2018, 2:09 PM Post
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homer said:
I think Wheeler might be a better target (again) because he won't cost an arm and a leg.


Judging by his second half, I think you might be surprised what he'd command. The guy has been stellar!


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Offline  Re: Syndergaard and deGrom
Posted: September 17, 2018, 2:36 PM Post
Posts: 5485
Location: Madison, WI
Really I don't see why the Mets would just give up with this pitching staff. Matz has also done well since coming back from injury. They should go into next year with top 4 of their starting rotation that you could argue is the best in the league, at least is in the discussion. Make some smart bullpen moves a la the Brewers, get Cespedes healthy. Maybe a new manager and see what happens. Probably would have to find a way to add one more good bat to go along with Cespedes back. I'm not saying they're all of a sudden a title favorite or anything but they're really not that far away. Even guys like Rosario, Nimmo, Conforto are solid MLB players.


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Offline  Re: Syndergaard and deGrom
Posted: September 17, 2018, 5:18 PM Post
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Since July 14th, Wheeler is 9-1... Seriously, check out his stats, not just his win loss record. He might be the best 2nd half pitcher in all of MLB.


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Offline  Re: Syndergaard and deGrom
Posted: September 17, 2018, 5:59 PM Post
Posts: 22289
Roderick said:
Don't know if better to start new thread or not, but thinking next year already -

Would Age 31-33 C.Anderson 3yrs/$24M (Mets need a starter back?), Hiura, Ray, Supak and Ashby be enough for two seasons of age 31-32 DeGrom at arby cost (guessing $24M?) plus hopefully a qualifying offer draft pick at the end?

Rotation: DeGrom, Chacin, Burnes. Davies as probable. Nelson, Woodruff, F.Peralta and Guerra as possibles. Wilkerson, Derby, Houser, Brown as backups.


No. Because if that's an acceptable offer for DeGrom, someone with better trade capital can and will beat that.

If the Mets would take that, why wouldn't the Astros swoop in and offer something centrered around Tucker and Alvarez?


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Offline  Re: Syndergaard and deGrom
Posted: September 22, 2018, 12:14 PM Post
Posts: 1037
tmwiese55 said:
Really I don't see why the Mets would just give up with this pitching staff. Matz has also done well since coming back from injury. They should go into next year with top 4 of their starting rotation that you could argue is the best in the league, at least is in the discussion. Make some smart bullpen moves a la the Brewers, get Cespedes healthy. Maybe a new manager and see what happens. Probably would have to find a way to add one more good bat to go along with Cespedes back. I'm not saying they're all of a sudden a title favorite or anything but they're really not that far away. Even guys like Rosario, Nimmo, Conforto are solid MLB players.


But I think the Mets have some solid pitching prospects already and dealing from the depth of their major league rotation could go a long way to fixing other problems. They have said they wanted near major league or MLB players and if getting pitching prospects back isn't a priority the Brewers may be a good fit for them trade wise in the off season. Huge if but if Moose agreed to come back either with a new contract or his option a deal built around Shaw and Hiura could knock Syndergaard free as the Mets may be soured on him bit with the missed time the last couple of years. I just think the Brewers may be in a 2-3 year window where an ace may be required and the Mets are an obvious target for one this off season. It looks like they did well to not deal any of them at the deadline this year as both Thor and Wheeler have upped their value.


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