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Thames for Kuechel?

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Offline  Re: Thames for Kuechel?
#21

Posted: June 08, 2018, 12:10 PM Post
Posts: 2011
Location: New Berlin, WI
bill hAll Star said:
I agree that giving up nothing and seeing if in-house options are better may be superior than trading for Duda or Morrison. But if they have to make a trade, I can bet you it isn't something like Keuchel for Thames.

Morrison is having a bit worse ability to get the ball in the air, but his BABIP is way down. He will likely have a much better batting average as the season goes by.

I agree that some guys simply just don't have it anymore. But chasing hot streaks or shying away from cold streaks without looking at underlying splits/ratios/luck is something that a novice fantasy baseball manager does. Maybe Keuchel and Morrison's bad numbers are truly due to career decline, but Gerardo Parra's Orioles stats can tell you all you need to know about "well, he's hot this year...better trade for him" without factoring in what guys generally do and the luck that comes with the 1st half stats.

You consistently rip the Cubs' strategy of the past few years and now you're suggesting that the Astros throw some more prospects at Thames?


I'm sure Morrison will improve at least a bit. He's just not a 38 home run hitter, I would bet on him never cracking 25 again.

I can understand not chasing hot streaks specifically if that's your team strategy, but buying a guy that's ice cold is another. If Morrison doesn't improve soon, you are buying an ice cold hitter. Like Villar last year, sometimes guys just have a lost year.

I do consistently rip the Cubs strategy/all in approach. That doesn't mean I'm never going to be willing to trade prospects for help. I'm just not going to trade blue chip prospects for rentals of any kind. The Cubs would be more inclined to trade for Realmuto and move McCann to 1st in this situation, or trade for Bour and Realmuto in a mega package...which would cost a fortune(Whitley + Alvarez + 2 or 3 good prospects) but seriously transform their team short term. Thames isn't going to command a haul like Realmuto. Maybe at the high end, they give up Alvarez and a flier. Something near the back end of the top 100 overall, and again that's assuming Thames comes back and remains around 900 ops.


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Offline  Re: Thames for Kuechel?
#22

Posted: June 08, 2018, 12:18 PM Post
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KeithStone53151 said:
If Morrison doesn't improve soon, you are buying an ice cold hitter.


Morrison signed late, got off to a horrible start but has been around an .800 OPS guy for the last month. He's not ice cold.

Cards' fans wear jorts.


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Offline  Re: Thames for Kuechel?
#23

Posted: June 08, 2018, 2:12 PM Post
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trwi7 said:
KeithStone53151 said:
If Morrison doesn't improve soon, you are buying an ice cold hitter.


Morrison signed late, got off to a horrible start but has been around an .800 OPS guy for the last month. He's not ice cold.


Definitely. He's gone a bit cold again in this past week but he just put up a good month of May so it isn't completely beyond him to be good.


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Online  Re: Thames for Kuechel?
#24

Posted: June 08, 2018, 2:29 PM Post
Posts: 12574
Thames is a lot better hitter than Morrison whose last season is looking like the exception.

I know Thames is a tough player to grade because he doesn't have a super long track record of MLB success and prior to his stint in Korea he was not a very good player. But he's clearly a completely different player than his pre-Korea days.

All told, Thames is somewhere in the ballpark of a 130 OPS+, 900 OPS, 38 HR per full season player since his return to the bigs over 600+ PA. That's even counting his work versus lefties. Better against just RHP.

That's a very high end hitter, a heck of a lot better than Logan Morrison, and the 2 years of cheap control after this season are a bonus.

I'm not saying we will get a fair return for that because yes, the market for that position sucks right now, but if we can't, we should just hang onto him.


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Offline  Re: Thames for Kuechel?
#25

Posted: June 08, 2018, 3:02 PM Post
Posts: 2011
Location: New Berlin, WI
adambr2 said:
Thames is a lot better hitter than Morrison whose last season is looking like the exception.

I know Thames is a tough player to grade because he doesn't have a super long track record of MLB success and prior to his stint in Korea he was not a very good player. But he's clearly a completely different player than his pre-Korea days.

All told, Thames is somewhere in the ballpark of a 130 OPS+, 900 OPS, 38 HR per full season player since his return to the bigs over 600+ PA. That's even counting his work versus lefties. Better against just RHP.

That's a very high end hitter, a heck of a lot better than Logan Morrison, and the 2 years of cheap control after this season are a bonus.

I'm not saying we will get a fair return for that because yes, the market for that position sucks right now, but if we can't, we should just hang onto him.


I think pretty much everyone knows that Morrison's season was an absolute fluke last year...heck most people knew at the time that he'd never come close to this again. Hence the contract he received this offseason. Thames to Houston is a relatively perfect fit considering how many RH options they have. Also especially considering many of their best hitters aren't specifically power bats, moreso all around hitters with good not great power. I suspect Stearns will gauge the market on all of Santana, Thames, Aguilar and see what the market is on those guys. It helps our cause that so many 1b/dh types aren't really hitting that well.


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Offline  Re: Thames for Kuechel?
#26

Posted: June 08, 2018, 7:16 PM Post
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This would never, ever happen. A contending team is not going to give up a TOR starter for an upgrade elsewhere, even assuming the two are equal in value.

I do think Thames for McHugh is realistic though.


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Offline  Re: Thames for Kuechel?
#27

Posted: June 09, 2018, 5:56 AM Post
Posts: 91
There is seldom Logic in the transaction rumors forum, but it sure is fun to read.


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