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Thames for Kuechel?

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Online  Thames for Kuechel?
#1

Posted: June 07, 2018, 3:05 PM Post
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http://bleacherreport.com/articles/2779 ... gh-to-work

It sounds a little off the wall when you first hear it, but when you read it the logic is actually pretty sound for both sides.


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#2

Posted: June 07, 2018, 4:38 PM Post
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There is no logic. The Astros would never consider it.

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#3

Posted: June 07, 2018, 5:35 PM Post
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trwi7 said:
There is no logic. The Astros would never consider it.


I'm guessing they probably wouldn't either, but the difference in value isn't nearly as significant as you're making it out to be.

Rentals by nature lack significant value, and Kuechel is having somewhat of a hot and cold season. Starting pitching is an area of great depth for them, 1B is a black hole and Thames would be a major offensive upgrade there and come with 2 additional years of control at a cheap cost.

So yes, there's absolutely logic, I'm not saying they would do it but I do see the logic.


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#4

Posted: June 07, 2018, 7:08 PM Post
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I'd take Clevinger as well...


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#5

Posted: June 07, 2018, 7:49 PM Post
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Aguilar for Kuechel? Thames/Braun platoon
Knebel for Kuechel? Jeffress becomes the closer


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#6

Posted: June 08, 2018, 6:35 AM Post
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This is the old BleacherReport I know and love, with casual fan trade offers galore.

I understand that the premise of this article is some off-the-wall ideas that may work, but I like how a likely back-end or worse starter in Barria is being anointed as a solid MLB pitcher after 7 lucky-ish starts.

As for the Keuchel/Thames trade, the Stros can probably just buy some slightly inferior power bat for a bag of baseballs at the deadline.


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#7

Posted: June 08, 2018, 9:20 AM Post
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While explaining how the values aren't much different arguably doesn't sound super unreasonable, the problem is that if the Astros made Keuchel available, other teams would blow that offer out of the water. There's zero chance Thames would get it done.


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#8

Posted: June 08, 2018, 9:27 AM Post
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I don't think the Astros will be in a hurry to trade with the Brewers anytime soon.


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#9

Posted: June 08, 2018, 9:40 AM Post
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Keep in mind Keuchel is a rental. We'd have the luxury of paying him $4-5 million for 2-3 months of starts, and have to give up Thames to do it. I don't think I want to do this on the Brewers side, and only because I don't think Keuchel is a good pitcher anymore. I've never really thought he was and don't know how he's managed to be so successful to this point. He's had a few rough starts in a row as well. I feel like we can find more value than that for Thames...who we control for 3 more years at a very reasonable price. The 3rd year is an option, so if things go south we can cut him if needed.


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#10

Posted: June 08, 2018, 9:42 AM Post
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adambr2 said:
trwi7 said:
There is no logic. The Astros would never consider it.


I'm guessing they probably wouldn't either, but the difference in value isn't nearly as significant as you're making it out to be.

Rentals by nature lack significant value, and Kuechel is having somewhat of a hot and cold season. Starting pitching is an area of great depth for them, 1B is a black hole and Thames would be a major offensive upgrade there and come with 2 additional years of control at a cheap cost.

So yes, there's absolutely logic, I'm not saying they would do it but I do see the logic.


I'd generally agree with this, plus they specifically could use a LH bat considering how many RH players they have. Correa, Altuve, Bregman, Springer...all their best players hit RH.

I also see a need for SP for the Brewers, I just don't have any interest in Keuchel. If give them choice between him and Suter for one start, ignoring all other factors...I probably pick Keuchel but it's closer than you think. I don't believe in that guy.


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Posted: June 08, 2018, 9:53 AM Post
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KeithStone53151 said:
adambr2 said:
trwi7 said:
There is no logic. The Astros would never consider it.


I'm guessing they probably wouldn't either, but the difference in value isn't nearly as significant as you're making it out to be.

Rentals by nature lack significant value, and Kuechel is having somewhat of a hot and cold season. Starting pitching is an area of great depth for them, 1B is a black hole and Thames would be a major offensive upgrade there and come with 2 additional years of control at a cheap cost.

So yes, there's absolutely logic, I'm not saying they would do it but I do see the logic.


I'd generally agree with this, plus they specifically could use a LH bat considering how many RH players they have. Correa, Altuve, Bregman, Springer...all their best players hit RH.

I also see a need for SP for the Brewers, I just don't have any interest in Keuchel. If give them choice between him and Suter for one start, ignoring all other factors...I probably pick Keuchel but it's closer than you think. I don't believe in that guy.


But...there is still no logic.

Because the logic would be, why would the Astros just give away a guy that could return to dominance if his groundball stuff is on? At the very least he's a great bullpen option. Also, why would they give up the comp pick on him?

So the Astros could just:

1. Take bag of baseballs
2. Offer it to KC for Duda, MIN for Morrison
3. Sign said player next season for $4 million if they are very interested in having an extra season of said player

Yes, those 2 are having a worse year than Thames but there isn't a huge difference. There are other options if they don't want those 2. Those are 2 that I'm specifically picking out.

OR

1. Trade some decent prospects for Justin Bour if they want some team control

And keep Keuchel for their playoff run.


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#12

Posted: June 08, 2018, 10:37 AM Post
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How is this just 'giving him away'?

That's implying that Thames has no value.

If they could just go get a .900 OPS lefty bat for free, they would have done it by now.


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#13

Posted: June 08, 2018, 10:42 AM Post
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bill hAll Star said:
But...there is still no logic.

Because the logic would be, why would the Astros just give away a guy that could return to dominance if his groundball stuff is on? At the very least he's a great bullpen option. Also, why would they give up the comp pick on him?

So the Astros could just:

1. Take bag of baseballs
2. Offer it to KC for Duda, MIN for Morrison
3. Sign said player next season for $4 million if they are very interested in having an extra season of said player

Yes, those 2 are having a worse year than Thames but there isn't a huge difference. There are other options if they don't want those 2. Those are 2 that I'm specifically picking out.

OR

1. Trade some decent prospects for Justin Bour if they want some team control

And keep Keuchel for their playoff run.


Come on man, Duda and Morrison...really? 256/317/398 with 4 bombs for Duda(who is injured anyway). 197/309/348 with 6 bombs for Morrison. Justin Bour is doing ok 245/371/439 and may be a decent option, but he's also going to be fairly expensive in prospects. Meanwhile, Thames is hitting 250/351/625 on the season. If he returned from injury and picked up where he left off...he's far and away more valuable than Duda or Morrison and arguably more valuable than Bour.

What most of us are saying from a logic standpoint, is both teams would be trading from a position of strength and depth for a position of need. It's altogether possible that the Astros trade a SP and the Brewers trade a 1b but not with each other and for different returns.

As for general 1b potentially available. The cream of the crop is Abreu, next tier includes Thames, Aguilar, Bour, then there's the tier of mostly useless guys like Duda, Morrison, Cron, Ramirez, etc. I don't think Abreu moves, the White Sox have generally made clear that they won't make a move unless it's a drastic overpay. The other bonus to trading with the Brewers over the Marlins/White Sox is you can include MLB players if it fits our needs. Like in Houston's case having an extra starter, or maybe the Indians including Kipnis or a backup catcher. The White Sox and Marlins likely have little to no desire to bring back mlb players unless they are very young.


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#14

Posted: June 08, 2018, 11:00 AM Post
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KeithStone53151 said:
bill hAll Star said:
But...there is still no logic.

Because the logic would be, why would the Astros just give away a guy that could return to dominance if his groundball stuff is on? At the very least he's a great bullpen option. Also, why would they give up the comp pick on him?

So the Astros could just:

1. Take bag of baseballs
2. Offer it to KC for Duda, MIN for Morrison
3. Sign said player next season for $4 million if they are very interested in having an extra season of said player

Yes, those 2 are having a worse year than Thames but there isn't a huge difference. There are other options if they don't want those 2. Those are 2 that I'm specifically picking out.

OR

1. Trade some decent prospects for Justin Bour if they want some team control

And keep Keuchel for their playoff run.


Come on man, Duda and Morrison...really? 256/317/398 with 4 bombs for Duda(who is injured anyway). 197/309/348 with 6 bombs for Morrison. Justin Bour is doing ok 245/371/439 and may be a decent option, but he's also going to be fairly expensive in prospects. Meanwhile, Thames is hitting 250/351/625 on the season. If he returned from injury and picked up where he left off...he's far and away more valuable than Duda or Morrison and arguably more valuable than Bour.

What most of us are saying from a logic standpoint, is both teams would be trading from a position of strength and depth for a position of need. It's altogether possible that the Astros trade a SP and the Brewers trade a 1b but not with each other and for different returns.

As for general 1b potentially available. The cream of the crop is Abreu, next tier includes Thames, Aguilar, Bour, then there's the tier of mostly useless guys like Duda, Morrison, Cron, Ramirez, etc. I don't think Abreu moves, the White Sox have generally made clear that they won't make a move unless it's a drastic overpay. The other bonus to trading with the Brewers over the Marlins/White Sox is you can include MLB players if it fits our needs. Like in Houston's case having an extra starter, or maybe the Indians including Kipnis or a backup catcher. The White Sox and Marlins likely have little to no desire to bring back mlb players unless they are very young.


Morrison and Duda are coming off seasons nearly as good or better than Thames had last year. Thames is also coming off an injury that many say can linger for a long time - that's a risk for a buyer.

Duda was doing great against righties this year and should be back from his injury soon.

Cron is having a decent season, though he does have the problem of being a RH hitter so less platoon advantage.

You really think it's worth the small upgrade of Thames over one of those guys to give up a potential ace pitcher if he gets it right AND the comp pick you'd be handing away?

Gurriel probably also is not this bad, though maybe his injury is a true concern.

Would you give up Albers for Jed Lowrie or would you rather just get Starlin Castro for free if we pay half of his salary? This is not a perfect analogy but the best that I can come up with.

You also knocked Duda for being hurt while...Thames is also hurt. And your stats for Thames is 22 games where he happened to be hitting well. It's very possible he'd have had a cold May and be right along the .800-.850 mark. I think you'd probably agree that Thames is probably somewhere around an .850 OPS hitter when platooned.

I don't think teams trade for players based on what has happened in the first 60 games of a season. While I do think one can make assumptions where the careers of Thames, Duda, and Morrison are going, there is not nearly as much of a difference as your Brewer-tinted/short season sample googles are showing you. Maybe this is the cliff and Morrison has fallen off of it at age 30 (where he supposedly refined his swing last year) or Duda has fallen off at age 32...but it's nearly as likely that Thames has after his injury in that case.


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#15

Posted: June 08, 2018, 11:20 AM Post
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Location: New Berlin, WI
bill hAll Star said:
KeithStone53151 said:
bill hAll Star said:
But...there is still no logic.

Because the logic would be, why would the Astros just give away a guy that could return to dominance if his groundball stuff is on? At the very least he's a great bullpen option. Also, why would they give up the comp pick on him?

So the Astros could just:

1. Take bag of baseballs
2. Offer it to KC for Duda, MIN for Morrison
3. Sign said player next season for $4 million if they are very interested in having an extra season of said player

Yes, those 2 are having a worse year than Thames but there isn't a huge difference. There are other options if they don't want those 2. Those are 2 that I'm specifically picking out.

OR

1. Trade some decent prospects for Justin Bour if they want some team control

And keep Keuchel for their playoff run.


Come on man, Duda and Morrison...really? 256/317/398 with 4 bombs for Duda(who is injured anyway). 197/309/348 with 6 bombs for Morrison. Justin Bour is doing ok 245/371/439 and may be a decent option, but he's also going to be fairly expensive in prospects. Meanwhile, Thames is hitting 250/351/625 on the season. If he returned from injury and picked up where he left off...he's far and away more valuable than Duda or Morrison and arguably more valuable than Bour.

What most of us are saying from a logic standpoint, is both teams would be trading from a position of strength and depth for a position of need. It's altogether possible that the Astros trade a SP and the Brewers trade a 1b but not with each other and for different returns.

As for general 1b potentially available. The cream of the crop is Abreu, next tier includes Thames, Aguilar, Bour, then there's the tier of mostly useless guys like Duda, Morrison, Cron, Ramirez, etc. I don't think Abreu moves, the White Sox have generally made clear that they won't make a move unless it's a drastic overpay. The other bonus to trading with the Brewers over the Marlins/White Sox is you can include MLB players if it fits our needs. Like in Houston's case having an extra starter, or maybe the Indians including Kipnis or a backup catcher. The White Sox and Marlins likely have little to no desire to bring back mlb players unless they are very young.


Morrison and Duda are coming off seasons nearly as good or better than Thames had last year. Thames is also coming off an injury that many say can linger for a long time - that's a risk for a buyer.

Duda was doing great against righties this year and should be back from his injury soon.

Cron is having a decent season, though he does have the problem of being a RH hitter so less platoon advantage.

You really think it's worth the small upgrade of Thames over one of those guys to give up a potential ace pitcher if he gets it right AND the comp pick you'd be handing away?

Gurriel probably also is not this bad, though maybe his injury is a true concern.

Would you give up Albers for Jed Lowrie or would you rather just get Starlin Castro for free if we pay half of his salary? This is not a perfect analogy but the best that I can come up with.

You also knocked Duda for being hurt while...Thames is also hurt. And your stats for Thames is 22 games where he happened to be hitting well. It's very possible he'd have had a cold May and be right along the .800-.850 mark. I think you'd probably agree that Thames is probably somewhere around an .850 OPS hitter when platooned.

I don't think teams trade for players based on what has happened in the first 60 games of a season. While I do think one can make assumptions where the careers of Thames, Duda, and Morrison are going, there is not nearly as much of a difference as your Brewer-tinted/short season sample googles are showing you. Maybe this is the cliff and Morrison has fallen off of it at age 30 (where he supposedly refined his swing) or Duda has fallen off at age 32...but it's nearly as likely that Thames has after his injury in that case.


I did say that Thames would have more value if he came back and continued hitting as he has, that's fairly critical considering his age. Duda and Morrison are rentals though. Nobody gives a hoot what they did last season, it's all about what they've been doing and project to do the rest of the season...which right now they'd be a massive liability both offensively and defensively. Morrison has had exactly one good season in his entire career, so even if you are hoping for a regression to career norms...maybe he boosts up to a 700 ops down the stretch, big deal. Duda has been relatively solid his whole career but is at age 32 and has dropped off a bit, maybe he picks back up to an upper 700s ops guy...big if. There's also more reason to believe that Thames will age better than those 2 going forward with the added team control, given his physique and general level of fitness. Those other 2 look more like Pujols than Thames.

The rental aspect of my comment should stand out above all else. That's part of why I don't want to trade for Keuchel. I think he's going to age terribly and be a horrible signing for whoever inks him to a big deal this offseason, but I'd still be willing to trade for him if he was pitching well to a 2 or 3 ERA. But his 4+ era is a very ugly 4 with a lot of HR allowed for a groundball pitcher. Factor that with his stuff, I'm just not interested. For rentals, it's all about what they are doing right now. Their prior history is far and away a 2nd tier consideration, especially for older players that very well may have hit that wall and are basically finished.


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#16

Posted: June 08, 2018, 11:28 AM Post
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KeithStone53151 said:
I did say that Thames would have more value if he came back and continued hitting as he has, that's fairly critical considering his age. Duda and Morrison are rentals though. Nobody gives a hoot what they did last season, it's all about what they've been doing and project to do the rest of the season...which right now they'd be a massive liability both offensively and defensively. Morrison has had exactly one good season in his entire career, so even if you are hoping for a regression to career norms...maybe he boosts up to a 700 ops down the stretch, big deal. Duda has been relatively solid his whole career but is at age 32 and has dropped off a bit, maybe he picks back up to an upper 700s ops guy...big if. There's also more reason to believe that Thames will age better than those 2 going forward with the added team control, given his physique and general level of fitness. Those other 2 look more like Pujols than Thames.

The rental aspect of my comment should stand out above all else. That's part of why I don't want to trade for Keuchel. I think he's going to age terribly and be a horrible signing for whoever inks him to a big deal this offseason, but I'd still be willing to trade for him if he was pitching well to a 2 or 3 ERA. But his 4+ era is a very ugly 4 with a lot of HR allowed for a groundball pitcher. Factor that with his stuff, I'm just not interested. For rentals, it's all about what they are doing right now. Their prior history is far and away a 2nd tier consideration, especially for older players that very well may have hit that wall and are basically finished.


Your analysis of "rental" vs. "control" is off here as many people made the mistake with Keon Broxton.

Eric Thames is relatively replaceable. Not for free...but you can find something that is 75% or better of what Eric Thames is next year and not give up a prospect to do it. We'll never get the "2 years of control on Thames" value because nobody is going to be willing to pay it. They'll just take Lucas Duda instead this year and re-sign someone of that ilk this coming offseason.

You're knocking Morrison for only having 1 good year where he did the launch angle reformation. He's having a tough luck year but he should be much better than he currently is. Thames has technically only had "one good season," though maybe he'd have had 2 or 3 more given that he made his adjustment several years ago not in the MLB.

This is going to go nowhere though if you can't understand/acknowledge that what a guy does over 60 games does not necessarily predict what they will do once traded for. See: Jed Lowrie's start to the year. He was looking like an MVP candidate and now he is back to looking as he always has on the whole: A decent hitter.

Keuchel is having issues getting the ball on the ground as he normally does. If he was a serious trade target for the Brewers, the analysis is not "well, he has a 4.00 ERA this year" - it comes down to whether or not scouts/management believe that he is unlucky or that his groundball style has truly faded or has been figured out.

I could bring up 100 guys being talked about as trade targets this year like Manaea, Liriano, Lowrie, etc. that were having exciting seasons one month into them...and then...once the luck evened out, they were right back to career norms. Even Nick Markakis is on his way back down.

Now, Morrison may have fit that mold from last year, but he's similar to Keuchel: is his launch angle revolution enough to trust that he'll regress to the mean and be a .750-.850 platoon guy? It's not "he's hitting .197 right now. Trash."

So again, if I'm a GM, give me Duda or Morrison for a bag of baseballs and I'll keep my pitcher and comp pick and also see if Gurriel et al can turn it around. Nobody is going to give up a large package because Eric Thames has a team option next season and he's a modest upgrade over those guys.


Last edited by bill hAll Star on June 08, 2018, 11:44 AM, edited 2 times in total.

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Online  Re: Thames for Kuechel?
#17

Posted: June 08, 2018, 11:39 AM Post
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Let's not forget that the Astros have plenty of options to cycle through at 1B/DH before they think about trading one of their starting pitchers for Thames. They're currently trying J.D. Davis. Gattis has been hitting better. Gurriel or Gonzalez might start hitting better. Reed is hitting well in AAA. Alvarez was hitting well in AA before he got hurt. They could call up their top outfield prospect Kyle Tucker and start a rotation there giving some outfielders a break by allowing them to DH every few days.

I think they would try all of these things before they trade Keuchel for Thames. If there's one thing we've seen in the last couple of years it's that 1B/DH types don't have much value in trades or free agency.

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#18

Posted: June 08, 2018, 11:46 AM Post
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Location: New Berlin, WI
bill hAll Star said:
Your analysis of "rental" vs. "control" is off here as many people made the mistake with Keon Broxton.

Eric Thames is relatively replaceable. Not for free...but you can find something that is 75% or better of what Eric Thames is next year and not give up a prospect to do it. We'll never get the "2 years of control on Thames" value because nobody is going to be willing to pay it. They'll just take Lucas Duda instead this year and re-sign someone of that ilk this coming offseason.

You're knocking Morrison for only having 1 good year where he did the launch angle reformation. He's having a tough luck year but he should be much better than he currently is. Thames has technically only had "one good season," though maybe he'd have had 2 or 3 more given that he made his adjustment several years ago not in the MLB.

This is going to go nowhere though if you can't understand/acknowledge that what a guy does over 60 games does not necessarily predict what they will do once traded for. See: Jed Lowrie's start to the year. He was looking like he always has on the whole. A decent hitter.

Keuchel is having issues getting the ball on the ground as he normally does. If he was a serious trade target for the Brewers, the analysis is not "well, he has a 4.00 ERA this year" - it comes down to whether or not scouts/management believe that he is unlucky or that his groundball style has truly faded or has been figured out.

I could bring up 100 guys being talked about as trade targets this year like Manaea, Liriano, Lowrie, etc. that were having exciting seasons one month into them...and then...once the luck evened out, they were right back to career norms. Even Nick Markakis is on his way back down.

Now, Morrison may have fit that mold from last year, but he's similar to Keuchel: is his launch angle revolution enough to trust that he'll regress to the mean and be a .750-.850 platoon guy? It's not "he's hitting .197 right now. Trash."

So again, if I'm a GM, give me Duda or Morrison for a bag of baseballs and I'll keep my pitcher and comp pick and also see if Gurriel et al can turn it around. Nobody is going to give up a large package because Eric Thames has a team option next season and he's a modest upgrade over those guys.


Logan Morrison is not simply having tough luck. If his launch angle thing worked, he'd be hitting more balls out...but he's on pace for maybe 18ish. Balls out of the park can't be defended, so you can't just say tough luck. If Morrison got hot in July and hit over 300 for the month, that absolutely matters. That's how we were able to move Aramis Ramirez a few years ago, he was bad most of the year but showed enough in July to garner interest and carried that momentum through the season. It's a rental...you are getting 2 months of a guy. You don't want to trade for what might be a significant cold streak. You don't trade for a guy based on an extensive track record and say "well eventually he'll figure it out". Eventually may never happen, and it definitely might not happen over a 2 month span. Not everyone is mediocre at age 36, gets traded, and immediately turns into Cy young like Verlander did last year.

As for Thames 2 years of control. It does add a bit of value, but not like it would if you were trading for a stud. If I'm the Astros, I'm not trading for Morrison or Duda because I simply don't view them as upgrades. I'm looking at Thames or Bour or another LH option that's playing well. If it came down to Duda or Morrison, I'd rather give up nothign and roll with the equivalent options that I have.


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#19

Posted: June 08, 2018, 11:54 AM Post
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KeithStone53151 said:
bill hAll Star said:
Your analysis of "rental" vs. "control" is off here as many people made the mistake with Keon Broxton.

Eric Thames is relatively replaceable. Not for free...but you can find something that is 75% or better of what Eric Thames is next year and not give up a prospect to do it. We'll never get the "2 years of control on Thames" value because nobody is going to be willing to pay it. They'll just take Lucas Duda instead this year and re-sign someone of that ilk this coming offseason.

You're knocking Morrison for only having 1 good year where he did the launch angle reformation. He's having a tough luck year but he should be much better than he currently is. Thames has technically only had "one good season," though maybe he'd have had 2 or 3 more given that he made his adjustment several years ago not in the MLB.

This is going to go nowhere though if you can't understand/acknowledge that what a guy does over 60 games does not necessarily predict what they will do once traded for. See: Jed Lowrie's start to the year. He was looking like he always has on the whole. A decent hitter.

Keuchel is having issues getting the ball on the ground as he normally does. If he was a serious trade target for the Brewers, the analysis is not "well, he has a 4.00 ERA this year" - it comes down to whether or not scouts/management believe that he is unlucky or that his groundball style has truly faded or has been figured out.

I could bring up 100 guys being talked about as trade targets this year like Manaea, Liriano, Lowrie, etc. that were having exciting seasons one month into them...and then...once the luck evened out, they were right back to career norms. Even Nick Markakis is on his way back down.

Now, Morrison may have fit that mold from last year, but he's similar to Keuchel: is his launch angle revolution enough to trust that he'll regress to the mean and be a .750-.850 platoon guy? It's not "he's hitting .197 right now. Trash."

So again, if I'm a GM, give me Duda or Morrison for a bag of baseballs and I'll keep my pitcher and comp pick and also see if Gurriel et al can turn it around. Nobody is going to give up a large package because Eric Thames has a team option next season and he's a modest upgrade over those guys.


Logan Morrison is not simply having tough luck. If his launch angle thing worked, he'd be hitting more balls out...but he's on pace for maybe 18ish. Balls out of the park can't be defended, so you can't just say tough luck. If Morrison got hot in July and hit over 300 for the month, that absolutely matters. That's how we were able to move Aramis Ramirez a few years ago, he was bad most of the year but showed enough in July to garner interest and carried that momentum through the season. It's a rental...you are getting 2 months of a guy. You don't want to trade for what might be a significant cold streak. You don't trade for a guy based on an extensive track record and say "well eventually he'll figure it out". Eventually may never happen, and it definitely might not happen over a 2 month span. Not everyone is mediocre at age 36, gets traded, and immediately turns into Cy young like Verlander did last year.

As for Thames 2 years of control. It does add a bit of value, but not like it would if you were trading for a stud. If I'm the Astros, I'm not trading for Morrison or Duda because I simply don't view them as upgrades. I'm looking at Thames or Bour or another LH option that's playing well. If it came down to Duda or Morrison, I'd rather give up nothign and roll with the equivalent options that I have.


I agree that giving up nothing and seeing if in-house options are better may be superior than trading for Duda or Morrison. But if they have to make a trade, I can bet you it isn't something like Keuchel for Thames.

Morrison is having a bit worse ability to get the ball in the air, but his BABIP is way down. He will likely have a much better batting average as the season goes by.

I agree that some guys simply just don't have it anymore. But chasing hot streaks or shying away from cold streaks without looking at underlying splits/ratios/luck is something that a novice fantasy baseball manager does. Maybe Keuchel and Morrison's bad numbers are truly due to career decline, but Gerardo Parra's Orioles stats can tell you all you need to know about "well, he's hot this year...better trade for him" without factoring in what guys generally do and the luck that comes with the 1st half stats.

You consistently rip the Cubs' strategy of the past few years and now you're suggesting that the Astros throw some more prospects at Thames?


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Offline  Re: Thames for Kuechel?
#20

Posted: June 08, 2018, 12:10 PM Post
Posts: 3667
Location: New Berlin, WI
bill hAll Star said:
I agree that giving up nothing and seeing if in-house options are better may be superior than trading for Duda or Morrison. But if they have to make a trade, I can bet you it isn't something like Keuchel for Thames.

Morrison is having a bit worse ability to get the ball in the air, but his BABIP is way down. He will likely have a much better batting average as the season goes by.

I agree that some guys simply just don't have it anymore. But chasing hot streaks or shying away from cold streaks without looking at underlying splits/ratios/luck is something that a novice fantasy baseball manager does. Maybe Keuchel and Morrison's bad numbers are truly due to career decline, but Gerardo Parra's Orioles stats can tell you all you need to know about "well, he's hot this year...better trade for him" without factoring in what guys generally do and the luck that comes with the 1st half stats.

You consistently rip the Cubs' strategy of the past few years and now you're suggesting that the Astros throw some more prospects at Thames?


I'm sure Morrison will improve at least a bit. He's just not a 38 home run hitter, I would bet on him never cracking 25 again.

I can understand not chasing hot streaks specifically if that's your team strategy, but buying a guy that's ice cold is another. If Morrison doesn't improve soon, you are buying an ice cold hitter. Like Villar last year, sometimes guys just have a lost year.

I do consistently rip the Cubs strategy/all in approach. That doesn't mean I'm never going to be willing to trade prospects for help. I'm just not going to trade blue chip prospects for rentals of any kind. The Cubs would be more inclined to trade for Realmuto and move McCann to 1st in this situation, or trade for Bour and Realmuto in a mega package...which would cost a fortune(Whitley + Alvarez + 2 or 3 good prospects) but seriously transform their team short term. Thames isn't going to command a haul like Realmuto. Maybe at the high end, they give up Alvarez and a flier. Something near the back end of the top 100 overall, and again that's assuming Thames comes back and remains around 900 ops.


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