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JA Happ

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Online  Re: JA Happ
#21

Posted: June 21, 2018, 7:55 PM Post
Posts: 3447
Location: New Berlin, WI
MrTPlush said:
jerichoholicninja said:
I really don't think Happ will bring back much where ever he goes. A couple month of an aging mid rotation starter generally isn't worth much on the trade market.


I’ve seen his age mentioned countless times. He is a 3 month rental. His age is almost completely meaningless.


Agreed. Using the extreme example, if we had a need at 3b...I would have no problem renting Beltre depending on the cost, and dude is 40. He can still hit and defend the position, over 3 months...that's all that matters.


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Offline  Re: JA Happ
#22

Posted: June 22, 2018, 6:26 AM Post
Posts: 1143
Location: Madison, WI
long ball said:
Santana and Woodruff is more than I think it would take. Definitely more than I would give up. It might take someone like Woodruff though.

Drew Pomeranz is the closest deadline deal I could find recently that would be similar to Happ. Pomeranz had 2.5 years of control and only garnered a top 75ish prospect 1:1. Pomeranz had 17 starts for the Padres before being traded, throwing 102 innings with a 2.47 ERA. (3.15 FIP)

Happ has a longer track record than Pomeranz did, but I don't think Happ costs more than someone like Woodruff


Anderson Espinoza was rated much higher when that trade was made. Baseball America's 2016 mid-season list had him ranked #24. I seem to remember some lists at the time had him in the late teen's. Espinoza was definitetly a consensus top 25 prospect in all of baseball when that trade went down.


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Online  Re: JA Happ
#23

Posted: June 22, 2018, 8:13 AM Post
Posts: 3447
Location: New Berlin, WI
JosephC said:
long ball said:
Santana and Woodruff is more than I think it would take. Definitely more than I would give up. It might take someone like Woodruff though.

Drew Pomeranz is the closest deadline deal I could find recently that would be similar to Happ. Pomeranz had 2.5 years of control and only garnered a top 75ish prospect 1:1. Pomeranz had 17 starts for the Padres before being traded, throwing 102 innings with a 2.47 ERA. (3.15 FIP)

Happ has a longer track record than Pomeranz did, but I don't think Happ costs more than someone like Woodruff


Anderson Espinoza was rated much higher when that trade was made. Baseball America's 2016 mid-season list had him ranked #24. I seem to remember some lists at the time had him in the late teen's. Espinoza was definitetly a consensus top 25 prospect in all of baseball when that trade went down.


That is correct, but this was clearly a product of big market bias. At the time, I thought he was extremely comparable to Diplan...only one pitched for the Brewers while the other pitched for the Red Sox.

With that said, Pomeranz isn't really comparable because of the remaining contract. A rental versus 2.5 years of control, not even close to the same.


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Offline  Re: JA Happ
#24

Posted: June 22, 2018, 8:33 AM Post
Posts: 3029
Happ is pitching like one of the best starters in the game. 1 Whip, 10 K/9. We won’t get him for a lower end prospect because there will be plenty of competition.


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Online  Re: JA Happ
#25

Posted: June 22, 2018, 8:43 AM Post
Posts: 3447
Location: New Berlin, WI
Boomer5 said:
Happ is pitching like one of the best starters in the game. 1 Whip, 10 K/9. We won’t get him for a lower end prospect because there will be plenty of competition.


His ERA and FIP are around 3.5. That's good, but one of the best starters in the game? Sorting by ERA, there are 29 starters with a better era. By FIP there are 20. He wouldn't even by our best starter based on those metrics, and our rotation leaves a lot to be desired.


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Offline  Re: JA Happ
#26

Posted: June 23, 2018, 11:04 AM Post
Posts: 11693
KeithStone53151 said:
Boomer5 said:
Happ is pitching like one of the best starters in the game. 1 Whip, 10 K/9. We won’t get him for a lower end prospect because there will be plenty of competition.


His ERA and FIP are around 3.5. That's good, but one of the best starters in the game? Sorting by ERA, there are 29 starters with a better era. By FIP there are 20. He wouldn't even by our best starter based on those metrics, and our rotation leaves a lot to be desired.


Have to give him some credit since he's not facing pitchers and he's in same division as Yankees and Red Sox. Happ would be certain to be a playoff starter.


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Offline  Re: JA Happ
#27

Posted: June 23, 2018, 12:27 PM Post
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I think it depends on if you think Anderson and Davies will round into form or not. At the end of the season Happ is probably going to have better numbers than every one of our starters not named Guerra (if not that is a good thing). He will cost more than Ponce.

"Dustin Pedroia doesn't have the strength or bat speed to hit major-league pitching consistently, and he has no power......He probably has a future as a backup infielder if he can stop rolling over to third base and shortstop." Keith Law, 2006


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Offline  Re: JA Happ
#28

Posted: June 23, 2018, 12:59 PM Post
Posts: 3029
KeithStone53151 said:
Boomer5 said:
Happ is pitching like one of the best starters in the game. 1 Whip, 10 K/9. We won’t get him for a lower end prospect because there will be plenty of competition.


His ERA and FIP are around 3.5. That's good, but one of the best starters in the game? Sorting by ERA, there are 29 starters with a better era. By FIP there are 20. He wouldn't even by our best starter based on those metrics, and our rotation leaves a lot to be desired.


That still makes him a number 1 on many teams and a number 2 on every team. And he plays in the AL East.

Our 17th best prospect got us about 20 innings of Swarzak for example. Happ will be a relatively major pick up by rental standards and the team that picks him up won’t have money on the books for 2019.


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Online  Re: JA Happ
#29

Posted: June 23, 2018, 1:46 PM Post
Posts: 15505
homer said:
I think it depends on if you think Anderson and Davies will round into form or not. At the end of the season Happ is probably going to have better numbers than every one of our starters not named Guerra (if not that is a good thing). He will cost more than Ponce.


All good if he does, for someone else. I wasn't saying he'll cost Ponce. I was saying Ponce is the ceiling of what I would give up for Happ.


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Offline  Re: JA Happ
#30

Posted: June 23, 2018, 1:50 PM Post
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Location: At the gettin' place
Yeah, no real interest in Happ from me.

I definitely wouldn't be happy with the original post.


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Offline  Re: JA Happ
#31

Posted: June 23, 2018, 2:16 PM Post
Posts: 306
KeithStone53151 said:
JosephC said:
long ball said:
Santana and Woodruff is more than I think it would take. Definitely more than I would give up. It might take someone like Woodruff though.

Drew Pomeranz is the closest deadline deal I could find recently that would be similar to Happ. Pomeranz had 2.5 years of control and only garnered a top 75ish prospect 1:1. Pomeranz had 17 starts for the Padres before being traded, throwing 102 innings with a 2.47 ERA. (3.15 FIP)

Happ has a longer track record than Pomeranz did, but I don't think Happ costs more than someone like Woodruff


Anderson Espinoza was rated much higher when that trade was made. Baseball America's 2016 mid-season list had him ranked #24. I seem to remember some lists at the time had him in the late teen's. Espinoza was definitetly a consensus top 25 prospect in all of baseball when that trade went down.


That is correct, but this was clearly a product of big market bias. At the time, I thought he was extremely comparable to Diplan...only one pitched for the Brewers while the other pitched for the Red Sox.

With that said, Pomeranz isn't really comparable because of the remaining contract. A rental versus 2.5 years of control, not even close to the same.


ya it was admittedly a stretch to begin with and then i whiffed on Espinoza's prospect status.

There haven't been too many decent rental starters moved at the deadline the past two seasons to draw a comparison to.


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Offline  Re: JA Happ
#32

Posted: June 23, 2018, 3:13 PM Post
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rental should not get a top prospect from the crew.


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Offline  Re: JA Happ
#33

Posted: July 02, 2018, 4:00 PM Post
Posts: 1328
Toronto extensively scouting Brewer minor league system. Happ and Solarte?


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Online  Re: JA Happ
#34

Posted: July 03, 2018, 6:25 AM Post
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Posts: 4951
Location: Three Lakes, WI
KCBrewerfan34 said:
Toronto extensively scouting Brewer minor league system. Happ and Solarte?


I hope it's Stroman or Sanchez and Solarte. I have no interest at all in Happ. He's having a decent year, but there is no upside there, he's purely a rental, and I don't think he's any better than what they are throwing out there. I think when Stearns talked about acquiring a top of the rotation guy, Happ is not what he meant.


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Offline  Re: JA Happ
#35

Posted: July 03, 2018, 6:33 AM Post
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Happ's ability to pitch deep into games could help the bullpen a lot. He's gone to the sixth or beyond in 10 of his starts, which is something the current staff struggles to do. It's going to destroy out bullpen, as we saw on this last stretch of games in Cincy. The rotation needs a couple of guys that can give the bullpen a few innings off, or this team is going to implode.


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Offline  Re: JA Happ
#36

Posted: July 03, 2018, 7:34 AM Post
Posts: 284
The fact that he is a rentals makes it appealing. He won't cost Huira, Burnes or Peralta. Generally, pitchers in the last year of their contract have effective second halves because they want another contract.


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Offline  Re: JA Happ
#37

Posted: July 03, 2018, 7:46 AM Post
Posts: 7599
Exactly the type of move they need. This team can not, should not, and will not empty the farm for this ridiculous TOR starter obsession. Just a foolish waste of resources. Happ gives us another legit starter, and that's what we need. Nelson not coming back, and who knows about Davies. If they can get a rent-a-Happ for Phillips or whatever, do it.


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Online  Re: JA Happ
#38

Posted: July 03, 2018, 7:59 AM Post
Posts: 3708
PeaveyFury said:
Happ's ability to pitch deep into games could help the bullpen a lot. He's gone to the sixth or beyond in 10 of his starts, which is something the current staff struggles to do. It's going to destroy out bullpen, as we saw on this last stretch of games in Cincy. The rotation needs a couple of guys that can give the bullpen a few innings off, or this team is going to implode.


I guess, but every team has stretches where their pen gets exposed a bit - the Brewers split with a Reds team that is rolling offensively and had it not been for Zagurski blowing the lid off game 3, the Brewers could have won 3 of 4. I recall a few weeks ago the Brewers' rotation went through a stretch where many starts went 7+IP (around the time of that Cub home series) - then the following turn through they all got touched up or had to exit much earlier and the pen has been feeling shorthanded ever since.

With their current rotation, I do think they need an innings eater to anchor things - Anderson is good for 6-7IP most starts, Chacin is in that 5-6IP range, Guerra has been a 5-6 IP guy that I feel gets yanked out of games a few outs too early routinely, Suter shouldn't stay in games longer than twice through the batting order unless the offense is scoring a ton, and Peralta is the young guy wildcard who shouldn't be counted on for more than 5-6 IP routinely. Adding a quality starter that could allow the Brewers to use Suter as a long man or have Suter and Peralta piggy back games to limit Freddy's innings would be great.

Where the pen has shown signs of stress is the fact some of their key guys are no longer going multiple innings to try and keep them fresher - if that shift holds, then I think they'll need at least one more solid relief to go along with a frontline starter. Any word on how Albers is doing? I feel like when he was healthy he was just what their pen needed to bridge games when key late inning guys needed an extra day. This is also a key stretch for the Brewers on the schedule, with more games left than days remaining before the AS break due to that doubleheader in Pittsburgh next weekend and no other off days. Some of their MIF fodder will need to be jettisoned to get an extra arm or two up again.


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Offline  Re: JA Happ
#39

Posted: July 03, 2018, 11:05 AM Post
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FWIW, MLB.com prediction says Happ to the Brewers for Burnes and Phillips.

https://www.mlb.com/news/trade-deadline ... =282421090


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Offline  Re: JA Happ
#40

Posted: July 03, 2018, 11:20 AM Post
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Posts: 10805
Location: Milwaukee, WI
Shaw getting reps at 2B, opening the door for Solarte at 3B and Happ to top the rotation.


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