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Sonny Gray

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Offline  Re: Sonny Gray
Posted: January 19, 2019, 10:13 AM Post
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https://twitter.com/JonHeyman/status/10 ... 4252136449

Long, Stevenson and a sandwich pick for Gray? Wow, that seems like a lot.

Brewer equivalent would probably be Payton Henry, Mauricio Dubon and someone like Caden Lemons. For one year of Gray? Yikes, that's rich.


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Offline  Re: Sonny Gray
Posted: January 19, 2019, 10:21 AM Post
Posts: 1650
Location: Madison, WI
Seriously, outside of FIP, is Gray really any better than Chase Anderson?

2016-2018:
Chase Anderson = 451 innings, 3.71 ERA, 1.22 WHIP, 4.66 FIP, 114 ERA+, 2.52 K/BB
Sonny Gray = 409 2/3 innings, 4.59 ERA, 1.38 WHIP, 4.21 FIP, 93 ERA+, 2.37 K/BB

I'd bet just about anything if Stearns would shop Anderson and say he wants two legitimate top 300 prospects plus a comp pick, the rest of the league would be figuratively laughing at him. And that is with Anderson having a far, far more favorable contract situation than Gray.

But if it's the Yankees the rules are just completely different.


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Offline  Re: Sonny Gray
Posted: January 19, 2019, 10:35 AM Post
Posts: 1650
Location: Madison, WI
Joey Meyer Bombs said:
https://twitter.com/JonHeyman/status/1086637994252136449

Long, Stevenson and a sandwich pick for Gray? Wow, that seems like a lot.

Brewer equivalent would probably be Payton Henry, Mauricio Dubon and someone like Caden Lemons. For one year of Gray? Yikes, that's rich.


Brewer equivalent would be higher than that IMO. Comp balance A picks almost always wind up in a teams top 10 prospects unless the team has a really loaded farm system. Long and Stevenson would be top 10 prospects in the majority of farm systems. Since there are 30 teams that puts all three of these assets as top 300 prospects. In that list of Brewers, only Dubon would qualify as a top 300 prospect and he'd be at the tail end of that, likely behind both Long and Stevenson (although the difference would not be all that significant).

I'd say the Brewer equivalent is more like Lutz, Erceg and Dubon. If the Yankees get Long, Stevenson and a comp balance A pick, it truly is a hideous deal for the Reds. I see it as legitimate 30+ million in surplus value heading to New York. Gray would have to be a 3.5 WAR pitcher in 2019 to even out this swap, and Gray has been a 1.4 fWAR/bWAR pitcher on average over the last three years.


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Offline  Re: Sonny Gray
Posted: January 19, 2019, 11:01 AM Post
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I can't wait for him to be off the market one way or the other. It causes me anxiety to think there is even an outside chance that we give up the kind of package that is being mentioned above.

*shudder*


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Offline  Re: Sonny Gray
Posted: January 19, 2019, 11:06 AM Post
Posts: 3403
turborickey said:
I can't wait for him to be off the market one way or the other. It causes me anxiety to think there is even an outside chance that we give up the kind of package that is being mentioned above.

*shudder*

Agreed and I'm not even sure what all that value is being given up for. If Cashman gets anywhere close to that it will be a masterful job of asset management.

but it's not like every guy suddenly forgot every piece of advice he gave


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Offline  Re: Sonny Gray
Posted: January 19, 2019, 12:10 PM Post
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JosephC said:
Comp balance A picks almost always wind up in a teams top 10 prospects unless the team has a really loaded farm system.


Do you think so? I'd be interested in this empirically, but I'm skeptical. A first round pick in the top 20 generally ends up toward the top of the prospect list if the system is barren, but even with an average system that pick is lower (like with the Brewers and Turang) much less a guy outside the first round entirely.


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Offline  Re: Sonny Gray
Posted: January 19, 2019, 12:48 PM Post
Posts: 1650
Location: Madison, WI
Last year the comp balance A picks were:

Gunnar Hoglund - Pirates - unsigned
Cadyn Grenier - Orioles - #9 on MLB Pipeline (average farm system)
Xavier Edwards - Padres - #18 on MLB Pipeline (probably the #1 rated farm system in baseball)
Jake McCarthy - Diamondbacks - #8 on MLB Pipeline (poor farm system)
Kris Bubic - Royals - #9 on MLB Pipeline (poor farm system)

Previous year:
Drew Rasmussen - Rays - unsigned
Jeter Downs - Reds - was #12 at end of 2017
Kevin Merrell - A's - was #14 at end of 2017
Tristen Lutz - Brewers - was #6 at end of 2017
Brent Rooker - Twins - was #14 at end of 2017
Brian Miller - Marlins - was #14 at end of 2017

So I stand corrected SRB, average over the last two years has been #11.5. A bit lower than I anticipated. Probably would be most fair to value a competitive balance A pick as a top 300 - 400 pick as 11.5 times 30 teams equals 345. Even though that is only a sample size of 9 players, just looking back I think the list probably does do a pretty good job of evening out systems as there seemed to be a pretty decent representation of good systems, OK systems and bad systems.


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Offline  Re: Sonny Gray
Posted: January 19, 2019, 1:43 PM Post
Posts: 3677
JosephC said:
Seriously, outside of FIP, is Gray really any better than Chase Anderson?

2016-2018:
Chase Anderson = 451 innings, 3.71 ERA, 1.22 WHIP, 4.66 FIP, 114 ERA+, 2.52 K/BB
Sonny Gray = 409 2/3 innings, 4.59 ERA, 1.38 WHIP, 4.21 FIP, 93 ERA+, 2.37 K/BB

I'd bet just about anything if Stearns would shop Anderson and say he wants two legitimate top 300 prospects plus a comp pick, the rest of the league would be figuratively laughing at him. And that is with Anderson having a far, far more favorable contract situation than Gray.

But if it's the Yankees the rules are just completely different.


I'm surprised that Gray is that close to Anderson in stats considering you are eliminating Gray's best season of 2015 while including Anderson's best year of 2017

When you look at 2015-2018 it is closer:
Anderson 3.86 ERA, 109 ERA+, 4.53 FIP, 1.239 WHIP
Gray 3.96 ERA, 105 ERA+, 3.95 FIP, 1.281 WHIP

I think one could make the argument that Anderson has been better, he was really good in 2017. Anderson's FIP is way too high, and he gives up too many HR's. Neither of them have really been all that great over the last 4 years, while both have had one very good year and had their moments.

If the Brewers were really high on Gray, he'd already be on the roster.

The one thing with Gray is that his away numbers in 2018 give me reason to think he could be a potentially productive pitcher again: 3.17 ERA, 1.16 WHIP

He sucks in Yankee Stadium. We all know that.

The David Stearns era: Controllable Young Talent. Watch the Jedi work his magic!


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Offline  Re: Sonny Gray
Posted: January 19, 2019, 3:12 PM Post
Posts: 23
I read that tweet as it being one of Long or Stephenson, not both.


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Offline  Re: Sonny Gray
Posted: January 19, 2019, 11:58 PM Post
Posts: 215
3and2Fastball said:
I'm surprised that Gray is that close to Anderson in stats considering you are eliminating Gray's best season of 2015 while including Anderson's best year of 2017


While neither should be discounted, 2017 should be more relevant than 2015.

3and2Fastball said:
If the Brewers were really high on Gray, he'd already be on the roster.

The one thing with Gray is that his away numbers in 2018 give me reason to think he could be a potentially productive pitcher again: 3.17 ERA, 1.16 WHIP


I do think that these are fair comments... [smile]


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Offline  Re: Sonny Gray
Posted: January 20, 2019, 2:23 AM Post
Posts: 1232
brewer2 said:
I read that tweet as it being one of Long or Stephenson, not both.



That's because that's exactly what it says. ONE of Long or Stephenson may be going.


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Offline  Re: Sonny Gray
Posted: January 20, 2019, 6:49 AM Post
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OnTheBlack said:
brewer2 said:
I read that tweet as it being one of Long or Stephenson, not both.



That's because that's exactly what it says. ONE of Long or Stephenson may be going.


Yeah, I read it wrong. My bad.


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Offline  Re: Sonny Gray
Posted: January 20, 2019, 12:22 PM Post
Posts: 1650
Location: Madison, WI
MLBTradeRumors posted, and I'll do a copy and paste here:

The Reds and Yankees are inching closer to a deal, with two prospects and a draft pick the expected return for Gray. Long and Stephenson (currently the #6 and #7 prospects in the Reds system per MLB.com) are the prospects most likely to be headed to New York.

That's probably where much of the Stephenson AND Long concepts came from. Clearly stated two prospect and a draft pick and then named both Long and Stephenson.

I'd still consider Long and a draft pick an overpay for Gray but it's not a crazy swap. Been checking out Reds message forums the last couple of days and they think Long is the ideal player to trade away. They think he's stuck at 2B and doesn't have the ability to play another position. Scooter is there short-term and they think Jonathan India eventually winds up at 2B...which would make Long a difficult fit on their 25 man roster.


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Offline  Re: Sonny Gray
Posted: January 20, 2019, 12:29 PM Post
Posts: 4269
If Gray had terrible numbers pitching at home in Yankee Stadium, he'll be thrilled to pitch half his games during his FA year at Great American Bandbox Ballpark, too. Plus, he'll get to pitch a good number of road games against darn good NL Central clubs, two of which (Brewers/Cubs) play in pretty hitter-friendly places.

I can see where this trade makes sense for the Reds given the pitching coach connection and their current dearth of MLB-caliber starting pitching - but even the Reds should be careful in what they actually need to trade away for Gray at this point.


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Offline  Re: Sonny Gray
Posted: January 20, 2019, 12:34 PM Post
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The pitching coach connection seems ridiculous to me. The goal with Gray is to repeat what he was doing early in his career with Oakland. Has nothing to do with Johnson.


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Offline  Re: Sonny Gray
Posted: January 20, 2019, 1:47 PM Post
Posts: 4269
Except that in this situation, it's not - Johnson was Gray's coach for 3 years while at Vandy and was instrumental in recruiting him there, and it's obvious they've formed a longlasting relationship. What Gray was doing early in his career with Oakland has a high likelihood of being built on the foundation he had developing as a collegiate pitcher with Johnson. Gray essentially pitched one minor league season across a few calendar years in Oakland's system, so it's not like he went through an extended development period under other minor league instruction before he became the pitcher he was a few years ago.

Seems likely that the Reds are his landing spot, as there is rumors swirling that the Reds are actually trying to get him signed to a contract extension before finalizing the trade. Whether an extension happens probably impacts the return the Reds want to send NY.


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Offline  Re: Sonny Gray
Posted: January 20, 2019, 3:53 PM Post
Posts: 17401
Joey Meyer Bombs said:
JosephC said:
Nice to see the Yankees have been gracious enough to back off the Taylor Trammell ask. [laughing]

To ask for Stephenson or Long isn't a crazy, but it would still be an overpay IMO from the Reds standpoint. They should tell the Yankees to move about another 6 spots on the prospect list and then they will be in business.


You are assuming that the Yankees (or Reds) care in the least about an arbitrary prospect ranking. I mean, it is easy to determine what every team's top prospects are, but once you get past the first 5 or so, each team is going to have its own ranking system, and I wouldn't doubt that its different than the mlb or any other prospect ranking list that is available to fans.


I will say however that it's a pretty good starting point. You are correct in saying every team is going to have their own system, but they're still going to be relatively consistent. For example Baseball Prospectus will have their own separate rankings from Pipeline but for the most part they'll be similar. No one is going to have Cameron Roegner as the Brewers' #1 prospect and Keston Hiura as the #17 prospect, for example.


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Offline  Re: Sonny Gray
Posted: January 20, 2019, 5:12 PM Post
Posts: 3403
adambr2 said:
Joey Meyer Bombs said:
JosephC said:
Nice to see the Yankees have been gracious enough to back off the Taylor Trammell ask. [laughing]

To ask for Stephenson or Long isn't a crazy, but it would still be an overpay IMO from the Reds standpoint. They should tell the Yankees to move about another 6 spots on the prospect list and then they will be in business.


You are assuming that the Yankees (or Reds) care in the least about an arbitrary prospect ranking. I mean, it is easy to determine what every team's top prospects are, but once you get past the first 5 or so, each team is going to have its own ranking system, and I wouldn't doubt that its different than the mlb or any other prospect ranking list that is available to fans.


I will say however that it's a pretty good starting point. You are correct in saying every team is going to have their own system, but they're still going to be relatively consistent. For example Baseball Prospectus will have their own separate rankings from Pipeline but for the most part they'll be similar. No one is going to have Cameron Roegner as the Brewers' #1 prospect and Keston Hiura as the #17 prospect, for example.

Well, almost no one.

but it's not like every guy suddenly forgot every piece of advice he gave


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Offline  Re: Sonny Gray
Posted: January 20, 2019, 10:14 PM Post
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A couple more Tweets from Jon Heyman...

Gray’s agent Bo McKinnis and Reds don’t have extension yet and have until day’s end Monday to get one done. There’s reason to believe there’s still a very good chance to extend him. But if not, NYY could possibly look at a deal w/SF, OAK, MILW, ATL, etc. or keep him.

Here’s why there’s still good reason to believe Reds will get extension w/ Sonny: 1. Reds like Sonny very much 2. Sonny has said players want to play where they’re wanted 3. Reds pitching coach Derek Johnson was Sonny’s coach at Vanderbilt 4. Cincy is close to his Tennessee home.


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Offline  Re: Sonny Gray
Posted: January 21, 2019, 3:01 PM Post
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Posts: 9782
According to Mark Feinsand of MLB.com, the Yankees had trades for Sonny Gray in place with teams other than the Reds on Friday.

The Reds have a tentative deal in place, but it's contingent on completing a contract extension with Gray. Their 72-hour negotiation window expires at some point on Monday after which the Yankees could pivot to other possible deals. If the trade with the Reds goes down, complete with the contract extension, it's believed the return package for the Yankees would include at least infield prospect Shed Long and a competitive balance pick. Not working out an extension doesn't rule out a different trade with Cincinnati, but teams like the Brewers, Athletics, and Padres have also been mentioned as possible landing spots.

Source: Mark Feinsand on TwitterJan 21 - 12:30 PM


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