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Sonny Gray

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Offline  Re: Sonny Gray
#61

Posted: December 28, 2018, 10:14 AM Post
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Posts: 1208
Not sure what I'd give up. I like Gray enough, he hasn't changed much as a pitcher. I think a change of environment might work, but is he really much different than Chase Anderson at this point? I guess I don't see him as a significant upgrade for the rotation from what we already have available for both the salary and the prospect cost. I mean many of us on here would be happy to move on from Anderson so I don't see where Gray falls into a different category. I do like that he's still able to generate ground balls even in an environment that's changed to hitting more fly balls, so if I was going to pin a reason as to why he'd be an improvement that's what I'd go with.


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Offline  Re: Sonny Gray
#62

Posted: December 28, 2018, 10:27 AM Post
Posts: 1736
Location: Madison, WI
Gray's fWAR/bWAR over the last three seasons:
2016 = 0.2
2017 = 2.7
2018 = 1.15

Three year average = 1.35 WAR

1.35 WAR * 9 million (2019 $/WAR) = 12.15 million - 9 million arbitration projection = 3.15 million in surplus value

Role-player prospect = 5.5 million
Fringe prospect = 2.2 million

Gray is really worth no more than 1 or 2 fringe prospects. In terms of the Brewer's top 30 list on MLB.com, take out the top 20 players on the list and then we would be looking at "proper" players to include in a trade like this.

The Yankees would likely claim that the trading team would be trading for 2017 Sonny Gray and that 2016 and 2018 should be ignored. If one just pretends like 2 of the last 3 years didn't happen, then maybe his surplus value pushes up to the 15 million dollar range which could return someone like Lutz. All I can say to Cashman is good luck with convincing teams that 2/3rds of the recent data is meaningless.

Asking for a legitimate top 20 prospect in all of baseball is an insult IMO.

I wouldn't give up the worst prospect in the system for Gray because I would rather use that money elsewhere. Defintely would have rather given Wilson Ramos 2 years, 24 million than sink 9 million into Gray. Definitely would not give the slightest consideration to trading for Gray until at least I know what is happening with Grandal and maybe some bridge opportunities for second base.


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Offline  Re: Sonny Gray
#63

Posted: December 28, 2018, 2:58 PM Post
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Posts: 8392
Wasn't a lot of the appeal of Gray for us because Derek Johnson was his college pitching coach?

Unless the Yankees are paying almost all of his contract I'm not interested. Maybe Thames for Gray straight up but that's about it.


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Online  Re: Sonny Gray
#64

Posted: December 28, 2018, 4:54 PM Post
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Posts: 10242
jerichoholicninja said:
Wasn't a lot of the appeal of Gray for us because Derek Johnson was his college pitching coach?

Unless the Yankees are paying almost all of his contract I'm not interested. Maybe Thames for Gray straight up but that's about it.


This exactly.

Without DJ, taking a 9 million dollar risk on Gray seems a bit foolish. I'd take him for Thames straight up, but not much more.


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Offline  Re: Sonny Gray
#65

Posted: December 29, 2018, 10:59 AM Post
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Posts: 3333
The appeal of Gray is that he has the realistic upside of giving you a low 3 ERA season, which is hard to find (hitting the lottery like with Miley doesn't happen every year). But he's not exactly cheap and only around for one year so I would not give up a good prospect for him.


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Offline  Re: Sonny Gray
#66

Posted: December 29, 2018, 11:14 AM Post
Posts: 4520
Luis Aviles, Jr. and Carlos Belonis for Gray.


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Offline  Re: Sonny Gray
#67

Posted: December 29, 2018, 11:23 AM Post
Posts: 3685
Gray had a 3.17 ERA away from Yankee Stadium last year. That was bolstered a good bit by 3 appearances against the lowly Orioles in Camden Yards, in which he went 3-0 with a 0.49 ERA/0.66 WHIP. He also padded those stats with 8 innings giving up 1 run at Kansas City.

He got hit hard at Fenway (although many pitchers did in 2018). 5 innings, 6 earned runs.

He did put in a solid performance at Houston: 6 Innings, 4 hits, 2 walks, 2 earned runs... and at Washington he threw 5 innings, gave up 2 earned runs, struck out 7

The Rays hit him hard: a 5.19 ERA in 2 appearances at Tampa Bay.

He's worth taking a chance on. I agree with others that I wouldn't give up too much for him. Thames for Gray makes plenty of sense.

The David Stearns era: Controllable Young Talent. Watch the Jedi work his magic!


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Offline  Re: Sonny Gray
#68

Posted: December 29, 2018, 11:56 AM Post
Posts: 610
If possible, I’d rather have Miley back at $9mm than Gray at $9mm+prospect


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Online  Re: Sonny Gray
#69

Posted: December 29, 2018, 3:20 PM Post
Posts: 1973
Thames has to be a part of this deal if it is going down.


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Offline  Re: Sonny Gray
#70

Posted: December 29, 2018, 3:55 PM Post
Posts: 12076
At most I'd give them Thames and Taylor Williams.


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Offline  Re: Sonny Gray
#71

Posted: December 29, 2018, 4:01 PM Post
Posts: 12076
I think how hard the Brewers go after Gray will say a lot about what they think Nelson's capable of doing. All reports are that he's going through a normal off season preparation for ST. Nelson's the wild card. A guy like Gray would be insurance.


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Offline  Re: Sonny Gray
#72

Posted: December 29, 2018, 5:16 PM Post
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Yes Nelson is the wild card but not overpay for Sony


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Online  Re: Sonny Gray
#73

Posted: December 29, 2018, 9:57 PM Post
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Posts: 10242
Jon Morosi of MLB.com reports that the Brewers "remain prominent" in trade talks involving Sonny Gray.

Morosi adds that while the Reds were in on Gray earlier in the offseason, he's not as much of a priority for them anymore after they added Tanner Roark and Alex Wood. A move to the National League would surely aid Gray as he looks to bounce back in 2019, but obviously Miller Park wouldn't be an ideal landing spot.
Related: Reds, Brewers

Source: Jon Morosi on Twitter
Dec 28 - 9:38 AM


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Offline  Re: Sonny Gray
#74

Posted: December 31, 2018, 2:14 PM Post
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Posts: 353
Why do we even want Sonny Gray? He hasn't been good for a couple years...the Yankees don't even want him in their rotation, so why should we? Just seems like another 3-4 starter at best and we already have enough of those.


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Online  Re: Sonny Gray
#75

Posted: December 31, 2018, 3:19 PM Post
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I think you look at him like a possible rebound project. I wouldn’t give up anything for him other than a lottery type prospect and a bad contract that a team like the Yankees can eat.


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Offline  Re: Sonny Gray
#76

Posted: December 31, 2018, 4:26 PM Post
Posts: 7008
TexasCheesehead said:
Why do we even want Sonny Gray? He hasn't been good for a couple years...the Yankees don't even want him in their rotation, so why should we? Just seems like another 3-4 starter at best and we already have enough of those.


Replace Gray with Miley and your post was written many times a year ago.

Now I understand the situations are a bit different with Salary and that it would be a trade but if we do go after him it will be because the front office and coaching staff think they can get value from him that matches or exceeds the cost.

Let's just see what happens.


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Offline  Re: Sonny Gray
#77

Posted: January 01, 2019, 1:43 AM Post
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Posts: 353
markedman5 said:
TexasCheesehead said:
Why do we even want Sonny Gray? He hasn't been good for a couple years...the Yankees don't even want him in their rotation, so why should we? Just seems like another 3-4 starter at best and we already have enough of those.


Replace Gray with Miley and your post was written many times a year ago.

Now I understand the situations are a bit different with Salary and that it would be a trade but if we do go after him it will be because the front office and coaching staff think they can get value from him that matches or exceeds the cost.

Let's just see what happens.


IMO it’s Keuchel or bust for me. Kluber is going to demand Hiura in return and I’m not willing to give that up. However, we can get Keuchel and we have the money to pull it off. I don’t get why he isn’t priority 1 right now. He’s the most sensible ace option out there for us.


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Offline  Re: Sonny Gray
#78

Posted: January 01, 2019, 1:47 AM Post
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Posts: 353
markedman5 said:
TexasCheesehead said:
Why do we even want Sonny Gray? He hasn't been good for a couple years...the Yankees don't even want him in their rotation, so why should we? Just seems like another 3-4 starter at best and we already have enough of those.


Replace Gray with Miley and your post was written many times a year ago.

Now I understand the situations are a bit different with Salary and that it would be a trade but if we do go after him it will be because the front office and coaching staff think they can get value from him that matches or exceeds the cost.

Let's just see what happens.


Look, we have enough serviceable starters that will eat up innings and keep you in ballgames. Even in a best case scenario, Gray isn’t going to be an ace. We need someone who we can rely on in a one game elimination when the bullpen is tired so we don’t have to put the weight of the world on Jeffress and Haders back every time we’re in an important game. Apart from maybe Chacin and and a God knows what version of Jimmy Nelson, I don’t trust any other starter in an important game with a burned out Hader or Jeffress.

Cue Dallas Keuchel.


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Offline  Re: Sonny Gray
#79

Posted: January 01, 2019, 1:58 AM Post
Posts: 18514
I don't see Kuechel being worth the kind of investment he's going to get. He's going to get 5 years and 20M a year from someone. I hope its not from us.


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Offline  Re: Sonny Gray
#80

Posted: January 01, 2019, 7:25 AM Post
Posts: 827
Sonny Gray ($9 million)
and
Michael King (NYY #22 Prospect)

for

Eric Thames ($5 million)

The Yankees just might cut Gray and then you get him for nothing. Stick by your guns!


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