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Free Agent Starting Pitchers for 2019

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Offline  Re: Free Agent Starting Pitchers for 2019
Posted: December 23, 2018, 9:02 AM Post
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Perusing the internet here is a collection of free agent contract predictions for Dallas Keuchel...

Fangraphs (Kiley McDaniel): 4 years, $84 million ($21 million AAV)

Fangraphs (Crowdsource Median): 4 years, $79 million ($19.8 million AAV)

Fangraphs (Crowdsource Average): 4.2 years, $81 million ($19.4 million AAV)

Jon Heyman: 5 years, $95 million ($19 million AAV)

Jon Heyman’s “Expert”: 5 years, $105 million ($21 million AAV)

MLB Trade Rumors: 4 years, $82 million ($20.5 million AAV)

Bleacher Report: 4 years, $84 million ($21 million AAV)


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Offline  Re: Free Agent Starting Pitchers for 2019
Posted: December 23, 2018, 9:11 AM Post
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Fear The Chorizo said:
What's the point of even making an offer like that, aside from the front office being able to say they at least tried? If the brewers want to stick to 3 yr offers in this market, they need to exceed the AAV over other offers that will include 4th and 5th years. I would be fine offering a pitcher of Keuchel's ability $22-24m AAV for 3 seasons, but hold firm on the contract length unless they would want to include a mutual 4th year option at $20M with a modest buyout that either party could exercise down the road.

You are probably right on what it would ultimately take to get him to sign a three year deal, I just don’t think the Brewers would go up to a $24 million AAV for him. A mutual option with a healthy buyout could be an enticement as well like you mention.

A three year, $70 million contract ($23.33 AAV) would be exactly half the contract (in terms of years and money) that Patrick Corbin received.

The most recent comparable three year deal is probably Arrieta’s three year, $75 million deal. The more I think about it I believe Keuchel will ultimately get at least four years from someone.


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Offline  Re: Free Agent Starting Pitchers for 2019
Posted: December 23, 2018, 10:03 AM Post
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Location: Madison, WI
Of all the top free agents this off-season, I thought Keuchel had the biggest probability of landing a contract that would be less than expected.

For the record, I like the guy and think he's a good fit for Milwaukee because he's sits at or near the top of the ground-ball pitcher list.

But how attractive will he be on the market?

Last year his K/9 rate was 6.7. Pitch info had his average fastball at 90.2 last season, which is actually a high number for him but certainly doesn't qualify as eye-popping. Bottom line, we are in an era where the strikeout is considered king. When considering that, Keuchel isn't all that attractive as a front-line pitcher.

Over the last three years he has a 3.78 FIP and 106 ERA+. Not a thing wrong with those numbers, but it's certainly not Cy Young type peripherals and most big market GMs might see him as a #2- or #3+++ type starting pitcher. Last year his WHIP jumped to 1.31, the worst number he's had since 2013.

It's been 3 years since he's won the Cy Young and in those three seasons:
average 173 innings pitched, 3.77 ERA, 1.25 WHIP, 3.78 WHIP, 106 ERA+, 2.7 BB/9, 7.3 K/9

Then there is the qualifying offer attached to him, making him a bit more unattractive.

I think 4 years, 72 million could end up being a more likely figure for him. But I wouldn't be shocked if it ended up being a 3 year, 60 million type deal (19 million in 2019, 19 million in 2020, 18 million in 2021...team option in 2022, 20 million with a 4 million buyout).


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Offline  Re: Free Agent Starting Pitchers for 2019
Posted: December 23, 2018, 10:47 AM Post
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To be quite honest I barely even bat an eye at Milwaukee based speculation for any player at this point unless something really seems imminent. We've been down this road with Darvish and Archer last year -- can't even remember if we were connected to Arrieta or not but it would not surprise me.

For whatever reason, maybe in some cases to smokescreen our actual targets, we seem connected to just about everyone. Most deals that actually come to fruition aren't speculated on much in advance and when they are they come together very quickly.


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Offline  Re: Free Agent Starting Pitchers for 2019
Posted: December 23, 2018, 11:19 AM Post
Posts: 52
JosephC said:
Of all the top free agents this off-season, I thought Keuchel had the biggest probability of landing a contract that would be less than expected.

For the record, I like the guy and think he's a good fit for Milwaukee because he's sits at or near the top of the ground-ball pitcher list.

But how attractive will he be on the market?

Last year his K/9 rate was 6.7. Pitch info had his average fastball at 90.2 last season, which is actually a high number for him but certainly doesn't qualify as eye-popping. Bottom line, we are in an era where the strikeout is considered king. When considering that, Keuchel isn't all that attractive as a front-line pitcher.

Over the last three years he has a 3.78 FIP and 106 ERA+. Not a thing wrong with those numbers, but it's certainly not Cy Young type peripherals and most big market GMs might see him as a #2- or #3+++ type starting pitcher. Last year his WHIP jumped to 1.31, the worst number he's had since 2013.

It's been 3 years since he's won the Cy Young and in those three seasons:
average 173 innings pitched, 3.77 ERA, 1.25 WHIP, 3.78 WHIP, 106 ERA+, 2.7 BB/9, 7.3 K/9

Then there is the qualifying offer attached to him, making him a bit more unattractive.

I think 4 years, 72 million could end up being a more likely figure for him. But I wouldn't be shocked if it ended up being a 3 year, 60 million type deal (19 million in 2019, 19 million in 2020, 18 million in 2021...team option in 2022, 20 million with a 4 million buyout).


I agree with all of this and if you took my team option on the fourth year as guaranteed, my suggestion would have totaled 4 years, $72 million with a team option for year 5 at $13 million and a $3 million buy-out.

I do think any type of deal would have to frontload the contract at least a bit with de-escalating salaries through the contract.


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Offline  Re: Free Agent Starting Pitchers for 2019
Posted: December 23, 2018, 11:48 AM Post
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Personally I would prefer a longer contract with a lower AAV. Braun's contract will be coming off the books soon and even if Keuchel completely falls off a cliff we can absorb 1-2 of those contracts without seriously hampering things. He's only 30 and his pitching style suggests it will age better than most.

If it takes 5/$90 million to bring him to Milwaukee it's fine by me. Maybe 35-year-old Keuchel is not worth $16 million, but that's actually not that much money anymore and we are in a competitive window right now.


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Offline  Re: Free Agent Starting Pitchers for 2019
Posted: December 23, 2018, 2:29 PM Post
Posts: 2597
adambr2 said:
To be quite honest I barely even bat an eye at Milwaukee based speculation for any player at this point unless something really seems imminent. We've been down this road with Darvish and Archer last year -- can't even remember if we were connected to Arrieta or not but it would not surprise me.

For whatever reason, maybe in some cases to smokescreen our actual targets, we seem connected to just about everyone. Most deals that actually come to fruition aren't speculated on much in advance and when they are they come together very quickly.

I mean, speculating is fun and part of a message board of this type but this post is absolute truth. I'll believe it when I see it.


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Offline  Re: Free Agent Starting Pitchers for 2019
Posted: December 23, 2018, 7:08 PM Post
Posts: 125
[/quote]
I mean, speculating is fun and part of a message board of this type but this post is absolute truth. I'll believe it when I see it.[/quote]

Honestly, I think we are just the other team in any equation...solely there to drive the bidding up.


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Offline  Re: Free Agent Starting Pitchers for 2019
Posted: December 23, 2018, 8:20 PM Post
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SRB said:
Two reasons he seems like a great fit for the Brewers:

-Having one guy who can give you 200+ IP seems like it would have a massive impact on the effectiveness and stamina of the bullpen.

-The unorthodox thing about Keuchel is that he's not a strikeout machine, but inducing weak contact gels perfectly with our defense (see also: Alex Claudio)

Two reasons he's highly unlikely to be a Brewer:

- Scott Boras

- Money

Stearns Brewing Co.: Sustainability from farm to plate


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Offline  Re: Free Agent Starting Pitchers for 2019
Posted: December 23, 2018, 8:25 PM Post
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TooLiveBrew said:
SRB said:
Two reasons he seems like a great fit for the Brewers:

-Having one guy who can give you 200+ IP seems like it would have a massive impact on the effectiveness and stamina of the bullpen.

-The unorthodox thing about Keuchel is that he's not a strikeout machine, but inducing weak contact gels perfectly with our defense (see also: Alex Claudio)

Two reasons he's highly unlikely to be a Brewer:

- Scott Boras

- Money


It's not like Keuchel is a Harper/Machado or even Darvish tier free agent. Brewers could easily be the highest bidder if the front office really loves him like they did Cain. I don't know if they do or not.


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Offline  Re: Free Agent Starting Pitchers for 2019
Posted: December 23, 2018, 9:07 PM Post
Posts: 174
TooLiveBrew said:
SRB said:
Two reasons he seems like a great fit for the Brewers:

-Having one guy who can give you 200+ IP seems like it would have a massive impact on the effectiveness and stamina of the bullpen.

-The unorthodox thing about Keuchel is that he's not a strikeout machine, but inducing weak contact gels perfectly with our defense (see also: Alex Claudio)

Two reasons he's highly unlikely to be a Brewer:

- Scott Boras

- Money


The second is certainly an issue, but it's not as if Boras doesn't have a history of approaching an owner directly, circumventing the GM... [laughing]


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Offline  Re: Free Agent Starting Pitchers for 2019
Posted: December 23, 2018, 9:15 PM Post
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SRB said:
TooLiveBrew said:
SRB said:
Two reasons he seems like a great fit for the Brewers:

-Having one guy who can give you 200+ IP seems like it would have a massive impact on the effectiveness and stamina of the bullpen.

-The unorthodox thing about Keuchel is that he's not a strikeout machine, but inducing weak contact gels perfectly with our defense (see also: Alex Claudio)

Two reasons he's highly unlikely to be a Brewer:

- Scott Boras

- Money


It's not like Keuchel is a Harper/Machado or even Darvish tier free agent. Brewers could easily be the highest bidder if the front office really loves him like they did Cain. I don't know if they do or not.

Yeah I don't think your take is wrong. I just think they'll be ultimately priced out on Keuchel due to other teams' bidding, and/or the Brewers guarding against arby raises we have coming the next 4-5 seasons.

Great point, btw, on Keuchel generating weak contact. It's been so much fun to watch the Stearns-led Brewers find all kinds of strategic nuances & market advantages.

Stearns Brewing Co.: Sustainability from farm to plate


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Offline  Re: Free Agent Starting Pitchers for 2019
Posted: December 24, 2018, 10:08 AM Post
Posts: 466
Just say no to Keuchel


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Offline  Re: Free Agent Starting Pitchers for 2019
Posted: December 24, 2018, 10:19 AM Post
Posts: 466
Jose Urena for Ray/Brown


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Offline  Re: Free Agent Starting Pitchers for 2019
Posted: December 28, 2018, 11:42 AM Post
Posts: 636
https://twitter.com/jonmorosi/status/10 ... 6980779008

Now the following post happens to be about Keuchel, but it's really more about a Keuchel-like contract and how it fits the Brewers; Keuchel simply happens to be someone likely to command a Keuchel-like contract.

With Soria, Moose, Schoop, Cedeño, Lyles, Jennings gone, and Domingo for Gamel, Brewers have saved quite a bit of money. The LH bats of Spangenberg and Gamel makes Thames more expendable as well. Now combine that with a deep playoff run, a new TV deal coming soon and an increase in attendance, and few long-term deals on the books; only guaranteed money beyond 2020 is Cain and Yelich. What you get is the possibility to add a long-term deal at a not-crazy AAV. 2B, C and SP are the obvious needs. 2B has an in-house candidate who will be cheap for years. While they may trade Hiura, that would also mean needing to spend on 2B in addition to whatever the C or SP they add is making. It just makes a lot more sense to me to, if you're going to spend money then spend it on SP or C and just roll with Hiura (And maybe a short-term solution there).

So combining those two takes, it wouldn't surprise me at all if the Brewers are genuinely in for a big C or SP, and among them most likely Keuchel. And that if there's a chance to seal it with an extra year, like with Cain, it might not be a bad idea. I'm more concerned with a high AAV restricting the team in the next couple of years than I am with the total value and length, soI look more at what the AAV ends up being. However it also hinges very much on how you project Keuchel going forward. Age in itself is meaningless, it's just a proxy for other processes. Some pitch at a high level into their late 30s, some break down in their late 20s. I have no way of knowing his health, how biomechanically sound his delivery is or how he'll cope with diminishing velocity. I just don't think there should be the automatic revulsion towards signing someone through their age-35 season, it all depends on the individual case. I don't know in the case of Keuchel, but I would imagine the team has a better idea. And as with all FA deals, you're usually getting a discount at the start of the deal and pay a premium towards the end of it. Teams are correctly wary of signings players long-term into their mid 30s. But if everyone avoids it, or prices that risk too highly, then perhaps there's an inefficiency to exploit.

Now it could of course very well be that the idea is to spend that money on Jed Lowrie and Wade Miley instead, or something else. But I would be very surprised if the team didn't spend $10m in AAV in free agency. I think it's also fairly likely the team moves Thames and/or Anderson in order to spend even more. They could of course spend the money on players acquired in trade, but it just seems simply set up for some free agency spending to me.


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Offline  Re: Free Agent Starting Pitchers for 2019
Posted: December 29, 2018, 9:55 PM Post
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Jon Morosi of MLB.com reports that the Phillies to this point have been unwilling to give Dallas Keuchel the five-year contract offer he desires.

Patrick Corbin landed a six-year deal, but he's a year and a half younger than Keuchel and also has the higher upside, so whether Keuchel is ultimately able to get a five-year pact remains to be seen. The Rangers, Angels, Brewers and Padres are some other clubs known to have interest in the veteran left-hander.
Related: Phillies

Source: Jon Morosi on Twitter
Dec 28 - 9:59 AM


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