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Trading for Paul Goldschmidt

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Offline  Re: Trading for Paul Goldschmidt
#41

Posted: October 22, 2018, 7:37 AM Post
Posts: 3962
Ryan Braun hit .246/.336/.523 vs LHP in 2018. He is well into his decline, and should not be hitting in the top half of the lineup unless the Brewers continue to struggle to have RH power in the lineup.

I'd prefer not to overpay for one year of Goldschmidt, and doubt Stearns would go that route. I do like the thinking though because we really do need upgrades in RH power.

Aguilar hit .245/.324/.436 in the 2nd Half of 2018. That is terrible.

The lack of RH power on the roster is a real & legit problem. I don't know if Domingo Santana is the answer, but he sure looked good in his small sample of action in SEPT/OCT. He certainly deserves a lot of looks in Spring Training.

Joey Meyer Bombs said:
Is Goldschmidt that much better than Aguilar that it would be worth giving up Jesus's control plus probably more for one year of Goldy?


Yes, he is. But I think it'd take a heckuva lot more than Jesus to get Paul.

The David Stearns era: Controllable Young Talent. Watch the Jedi work his magic!


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Offline  Re: Trading for Paul Goldschmidt
#42

Posted: October 22, 2018, 8:10 AM Post
Posts: 834
I question whether it's really important to sink in a lot of $$ or prospect capital into first base. Just look at the first baseman of the playoff teams:

Astros: Gurriel- Cuban FA signed for ~$10m/yr
Red Sox: Steve Pearce/Mitch Moreland platoon. Couple of cheap journeyman types.
Yankees: Bird/Walker/Voit pretty much a dumpster fire all year until they got lighting in a bottle with Voit
Indians: Yonder Alonso is just a cheap veteran
A's: Matt Olson is a solid young player, but never really a top prospect

Braves: Freeman is a legit franchise cornerstone type player
Cubs: Rizzo is also a legit franchise cornerstone type player
Brewers: Aguilar was a scrap heap pick up and Thames was a KBO signing for relatively cheap
Rockies: Ian Desmond is a highly paid veteran who is pretty worthless and they just stuck him at first base
Dodgers: Bellinger was a legit top prospect + Freese came in late as a cheap platoon bat.

So there are 2 legit awesome first basemen on this list while the most are sort of cheap young guys or bargain bin shopping. Then when you look at first basemen signed to big contracts they've basically crippled team payrolls: Hosmer, Pujols, Votto, Cabrera.

Basically my point is that you can find a cheap hitter anywhere or an aging veteran (Braun in this case) and stick them at first base while focusing resources on a position that much harder to find like CF, MI, 3b, or C.


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Offline  Re: Trading for Paul Goldschmidt
#43

Posted: October 22, 2018, 8:19 AM Post
Posts: 2251
Location: Madison, WI
Braun finished the year with a .313 OBP and having a guy making that many outs from the third spot in the lineup really can hinder an offense. Moving Braun back to 3rd in the order was a mistake by Counsell. The Brewer schedule was murderous to start the second half but it was easy after they got past August 20. Braun's slash line on August 19 was .250/.301/.457/.758 and then he finished .254/.313/.469/.782. His slash line in September was .266/.382/.609/.991 when beating up on bad teams. Get to the playoffs and Braun slides back down to .286/.318/.333/.652 and against LA's quality staff he could only muster .241/.290/.310/.601. Counsell needs to have Braun hitting in about the 6th spot to start next year, and if Braun starts off the year well then he earns the chance to move back up in the lineup. I'm not a big believer in slash lines out of particular spots in the order, but Braun slashed .217/.269/.386/.655 when hitting third this year in the regular season.


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Offline  Re: Trading for Paul Goldschmidt
#44

Posted: October 22, 2018, 8:19 AM Post
Posts: 20588
long ball said:
Basically my point is that you can find a cheap hitter anywhere or an aging veteran (Braun in this case) and stick them at first base while focusing resources on a position that much harder to find like CF, MI, 3b, or C.


Yes. Or we could just stick with our already pretty good 1st baseman who OPSed .929 off of LHP this season, and. 902 in 2017. Upgrading from that is not an easy thing to do especially when we're weak hitting LHP.

IMO we're far too concerned with 1B next year. If we're talking about finding an upgrade from Aguilar at 1B, why aren't we talking about finding a corner OF upgrade from Braun and getting Yelich back into his position of strength, LF?

I'd bet on Aguilar being the more productive hitter in 2019.


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Offline  Re: Trading for Paul Goldschmidt
#45

Posted: October 22, 2018, 8:23 AM Post
Posts: 20588
JosephC said:
Braun finished the year with a .313 OBP and having a guy making that many outs from the third spot in the lineup really can hinder an offense. Moving Braun back to 3rd in the order was a mistake by Counsell. The Brewer schedule was murderous to start the second half but it was easy after they got past August 20. Braun's slash line on August 19 was .250/.301/.457/.758 and then he finished .254/.313/.469/.782. His slash line in September was .266/.382/.609/.991 when beating up on bad teams. Get to the playoffs and Braun slides back down to .286/.318/.333/.652 and against LA's quality staff he could only muster .241/.290/.310/.601. Counsell needs to have Braun hitting in about the 6th spot to start next year, and if Braun starts off the year well then he earns the chance to move back up in the lineup. I'm not a big believer in slash lines out of particular spots in the order, but Braun slashed .217/.269/.386/.655 when hitting third this year in the regular season.


Agreed. Braun should never have been moved back to #3, he simply wasn't good there at all for whatever reaaon and when Counsell switched Braun and Aguilar back, it really backfired.

Braun was far from being our biggest postseason problem but when your every day #3 hitter posts a .652 playoff OPS it's a pretty good recipe for a sluggish offense which is exactly what we witnessed.

I get what Counsell was thinking -- not many others were doing a ton either and if it was a crapshoot anyway he wanted to roll the dice on the veteran. But at this point in his career you have to count on Braun as a role player, not a primary source of offense.

Crazy as it may sound, going with Arcia at #2 and going Yelich-Aguilar-Shaw-Braun-Moose at 3-7 probably wouldn't have been a bad idea the last few games of the LCS.


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Offline  Re: Trading for Paul Goldschmidt
#46

Posted: October 22, 2018, 8:46 AM Post
Posts: 834
adambr2 said:
long ball said:
Basically my point is that you can find a cheap hitter anywhere or an aging veteran (Braun in this case) and stick them at first base while focusing resources on a position that much harder to find like CF, MI, 3b, or C.


Yes. Or we could just stick with our already pretty good 1st baseman who OPSed .929 off of LHP this season, and. 902 in 2017. Upgrading from that is not an easy thing to do especially when we're weak hitting LHP.

IMO we're far too concerned with 1B next year. If we're talking about finding an upgrade from Aguilar at 1B, why aren't we talking about finding a corner OF upgrade from Braun and getting Yelich back into his position of strength, LF?

I'd bet on Aguilar being the more productive hitter in 2019.


I totally agree that first base isn't the mot important position of opportunity. I think a Thames/Aguilar/Braun group provides sufficient coverage there.

Second or third base seems to be the easiest way to upgrade the offense. (I'm not in favor of just having a place holder at 2b for 2 months hoping Hiura can make the transition flawlessly by June, but he's pretty good insurance).

Catcher- this is going to be admittedly tough to do. I mean there's basically competing with every other MLB team for Grandal or Ramos or paying a huge prospect package for Realmuto.

SS would also be pretty darn tough to upgrade since there just aren't that many good SS who will be available. If they get 2017 Arcia that's a pretty good player.


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Offline  Re: Trading for Paul Goldschmidt
#47

Posted: October 22, 2018, 8:51 AM Post
Posts: 584
You guys are all crazy if you think they are getting rid of Aguilar. The only 1B they will be getting rid of would be Thames. We don't need Thames when we have a guy like Shaw that can play 1B and spell Aguilar.

Yes, Aguilar didn't have a great second half but that was his first full season and big guys like that tend to wear down more quickly.

I do agree that they need an offensive upgrade but it won't be a guy like Goldschmidt.


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Offline  Re: Trading for Paul Goldschmidt
#48

Posted: October 22, 2018, 9:12 AM Post
User avatar
Posts: 10234
jonescm128 said:
You guys are all crazy if you think they are getting rid of Aguilar. The only 1B they will be getting rid of would be Thames. We don't need Thames when we have a guy like Shaw that can play 1B and spell Aguilar.

Yes, Aguilar didn't have a great second half but that was his first full season and big guys like that tend to wear down more quickly.

I do agree that they need an offensive upgrade but it won't be a guy like Goldschmidt.


If they decide to keep Moose, I could definitely see Aguilar dealt. That would enable them to slide Shaw to 1B, likely in a platoon situation with Braun. I agree that Goldschmidt is an extreme long shot.


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Offline  Re: Trading for Paul Goldschmidt
#49

Posted: October 22, 2018, 9:15 AM Post
Posts: 5207
Location: Madison, WI
I don't get the ripping Braun going back to 3rd. His second half stats were great, what more do you want considering Jesus was falling apart and who else was doing so well offensively in that stretch to put in that spot? now, planning on him to be 3rd for next year, that's a different call. But are you saying they should have had Jesus stay there hitting .230 or whatever he did second half?

Also, add in the Yelich baserunning blunder vs LA and his avg/obp goes to 275/322 in that series. Again, who hit so well vs LAD that this was at all the worst of their problems? Add in Yelich's two baserunning blunders for the playoffs and his avg/obp goes to 333/363.


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Offline  Re: Trading for Paul Goldschmidt
#50

Posted: October 22, 2018, 10:00 AM Post
User avatar
Posts: 14187
Location: Milwaukee, WI
tmwiese55 said:
I don't get the ripping Braun going back to 3rd. His second half stats were great, what more do you want considering Jesus was falling apart and who else was doing so well offensively in that stretch to put in that spot? now, planning on him to be 3rd for next year, that's a different call. But are you saying they should have had Jesus stay there hitting .230 or whatever he did second half?

Also, add in the Yelich baserunning blunder vs LA and his avg/obp goes to 275/322 in that series. Again, who hit so well vs LAD that this was at all the worst of their problems? Add in Yelich's two baserunning blunders for the playoffs and his avg/obp goes to 333/363.


Image

"I'm not as good as I was but in big moments I'm still the guy. I want that opportunity." -Ryan Braun


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Offline  Re: Trading for Paul Goldschmidt
#51

Posted: October 22, 2018, 10:02 AM Post
Posts: 20588
tmwiese55 said:
I don't get the ripping Braun going back to 3rd. His second half stats were great, what more do you want considering Jesus was falling apart and who else was doing so well offensively in that stretch to put in that spot? now, planning on him to be 3rd for next year, that's a different call. But are you saying they should have had Jesus stay there hitting .230 or whatever he did second half?

Also, add in the Yelich baserunning blunder vs LA and his avg/obp goes to 275/322 in that series. Again, who hit so well vs LAD that this was at all the worst of their problems? Add in Yelich's two baserunning blunders for the playoffs and his avg/obp goes to 333/363.


Yeah I mean I guess you can make a reasonable argument that anything else they would have done probably wouldn't have made much difference anyway since no one else was really doing a ton besides Arcia.

But yeah going forward I'd be much more comfortable with Braun at #6 or so in more of a supportive offensive role; obviously that will depend on what we do in the offseason.


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Offline  Re: Trading for Paul Goldschmidt
#52

Posted: October 22, 2018, 10:09 AM Post
Posts: 3962
Moving Braun back to hitting 3rd was the right move, but it was more a reflection of not having a better choice, than any sort of affirmation of Braun's resurgence. I'd have to look, but I'm fairly sure that (based on season stats) Braun was the worst 3 hole hitter among any postseason team this year.

The David Stearns era: Controllable Young Talent. Watch the Jedi work his magic!


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Offline  Re: Trading for Paul Goldschmidt
#53

Posted: October 22, 2018, 11:10 AM Post
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Posts: 14187
Location: Milwaukee, WI
Braun in the 3rd spot was the right move. We needed him to channel his inner MVP during the playoffs but he was just good. Couple that with almost everyone around him not doing their part and you get the offense we got in the playoffs. Going forward, if we can get Braun down to the 5-hole, it will be because Stearns is doing his magic again and providing this lineup with game changing batters. It is either that or the Brewers need to get Braun to buy in shortening the bat and his approach to the ball and becoming a different hitter than he has ever been. He could do it, but it is doubtful well, because, ego. Either way, as the original poster, it is clear to us all we could use a Goldschmidt type batter (who doesnt?) in this lineup if we want to get real serious about this thing.

"I'm not as good as I was but in big moments I'm still the guy. I want that opportunity." -Ryan Braun


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Offline  Re: Trading for Paul Goldschmidt
#54

Posted: October 22, 2018, 11:22 AM Post
Posts: 13186
If Braun is in the 3-hole next year Stearns failed us in the offseason. Braun is a decent bat overall (some pretty rough stretches, but had a nice hot streak to end the year), but that should not be that high in the lineup. Braun is more like a #6 (#7 if we acquire Realmuto) at this stage in his career. We need someone a little more consistently reliable than him to produce runs and get on base.

The guy is 35 years old, average is nothing to sneeze at. It just isn't #3 spot worthy.


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Offline  Re: Trading for Paul Goldschmidt
#55

Posted: October 22, 2018, 11:39 AM Post
Posts: 20588
Brew4U said:
Braun in the 3rd spot was the right move. We needed him to channel his inner MVP during the playoffs but he was just good. Couple that with almost everyone around him not doing their part and you get the offense we got in the playoffs. Going forward, if we can get Braun down to the 5-hole, it will be because Stearns is doing his magic again and providing this lineup with game changing batters. It is either that or the Brewers need to get Braun to buy in shortening the bat and his approach to the ball and becoming a different hitter than he has ever been. He could do it, but it is doubtful well, because, ego. Either way, as the original poster, it is clear to us all we could use a Goldschmidt type batter (who doesnt?) in this lineup if we want to get real serious about this thing.


Quite frankly, Braun is one of the most upgradeable spots on offense behind catcher and 2B, and probably just catcher after Hiura comes up. I don't include Arcia because he's not going anywhere, we'll live with what he gives on offense as long as we have his glove.

I realize because of his contract and the fact that he wouldn't provide much value as a bench player, he isn't going anywhere. But if we're talking upgrades from the Diamondbacks, wouldn't David Peralta be an offensive upgrade? He'd be more controllable, and cost loss.

Guess I just don't see why people assume Aguilar is a fluke, and think Braun just deserves a spot. Over the entire season, Aguilar was the better offensive player. No question. Why are people assuming Aguilar won't return to his 1st half form, but think Braun at age 35 is going to be fine?

I don't really buy that Braun is just going to shorten the bat, change his approach, and get better. I don't see a lot of ego right now and think he buys into the team vision. If they felt that way, I think there's enough mutual respect where that conversation would have already taken place. I think age and decline has far more to do with it than ego.

If Ryan is batting anywhere higher than #5 to start 2019, we didn't do nearly enough to improve the offense.


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Offline  Re: Trading for Paul Goldschmidt
#56

Posted: October 22, 2018, 11:48 AM Post
Posts: 5207
Location: Madison, WI
Adam is pretty spot on. The goal should be to add a couple more bats so that Braun should be batting lower, like when Jesus was going well. The Shaws and Moose's are just as streaky and hit or miss as Braun has been, plus have the drastic split problems.

To his point, the reason we don't discuss it is that first we know due to contract he's going to be here. Second, the likely replacement for him if he struggles should be here already in Santana.


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Offline  Re: Trading for Paul Goldschmidt
#57

Posted: October 22, 2018, 12:04 PM Post
Posts: 1956
There's not a reliable 3-hole of clean-up hitter on the team right now. There are lots of guys who have looked up to the task for maybe half of the time over their last 2 seasons, but most of them are short of even that standard. I suppose you could make a case for Aguilar seizing the spot again, but it's hard to reconcile what he did in the first half with what he did in the 2nd half and for 10 years in the minor leagues. The problem is, it's not easy to find an upgrade, and it's not like they'd be the only team hitting 5/6 guys in the 3/4 spots. They'd be one of the only contenders doing so though.

Choi may have been better than any of them this year.


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Offline  Re: Trading for Paul Goldschmidt
#58

Posted: October 22, 2018, 12:10 PM Post
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Posts: 10234
coolhandluke121 said:
There's not a reliable 3-hole of clean-up hitter on the team right now. There are lots of guys who have looked up to the task for maybe half of the time over their last 2 seasons, but most of them are short of even that standard. I suppose you could make a case for Aguilar seizing the spot again, but it's hard to reconcile what he did in the first half with what he did in the 2nd half and for 10 years in the minor leagues. The problem is, it's not easy to find an upgrade, and it's not like they'd be the only team hitting 5/6 guys in the 3/4 spots. They'd be one of the only contenders doing so though.

Choi may have been better than any of them this year.


Hard to find fault with them trading Choi. Aguilar was hotter than ever in June, Braun was logging some time at 1B, and Thames was about to be activated from the DL. Choi wanted his shot in the majors, and he probably wasn't going to get it as the 4th string 1B. Plus the Brewers needed a 2B, and Brad Miller probably seemed like the best option available at the time.


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Offline  Re: Trading for Paul Goldschmidt
#59

Posted: October 22, 2018, 12:23 PM Post
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Posts: 14187
Location: Milwaukee, WI
I assume Aguilar won't return to his first half form because to me it is not realistic. He's an .800 OPS guy for me. It's not that he is a terrible player (although I cannot stand his lack of hustle) it just makes more sense. Braun might be upgradable but with roster construction, it probably isn't going to happen, so the focus could be put on Aguilar.

"I'm not as good as I was but in big moments I'm still the guy. I want that opportunity." -Ryan Braun


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Offline  Re: Trading for Paul Goldschmidt
#60

Posted: October 22, 2018, 7:43 PM Post
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Posts: 1060
Yelich can and should be your 3-hole guy. It just requires either a high on base leadoff type to knock Cain down to the 2 hole or a high contact 2 hole guy with Cain remaining at the top. They might even have their #2 hole guy soon to be ready in the wings in the form of Keston Huira. Regardless of whose names appear next to #1 and #2 on the lineup card, Yelich is about as prototypical #3 as they come.


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