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Trading for Paul Goldschmidt

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Offline  Re: Trading for Paul Goldschmidt
#61

Posted: October 22, 2018, 8:31 PM Post
Posts: 1271
True Blue Brew Crew said:
Yelich can and should be your 3-hole guy. It just requires either a high on base leadoff type to knock Cain down to the 2 hole or a high contact 2 hole guy with Cain remaining at the top. They might even have their #2 hole guy soon to be ready in the wings in the form of Keston Huira. Regardless of whose names appear next to #1 and #2 on the lineup card, Yelich is about as prototypical #3 as they come.


I would rather our best hitter getting more at bats rather than caring about being a prototypical #3 hitter.


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Offline  Re: Trading for Paul Goldschmidt
#62

Posted: October 22, 2018, 10:39 PM Post
Posts: 455
wallus said:
True Blue Brew Crew said:
Yelich can and should be your 3-hole guy. It just requires either a high on base leadoff type to knock Cain down to the 2 hole or a high contact 2 hole guy with Cain remaining at the top. They might even have their #2 hole guy soon to be ready in the wings in the form of Keston Huira. Regardless of whose names appear next to #1 and #2 on the lineup card, Yelich is about as prototypical #3 as they come.


I would rather our best hitter getting more at bats rather than caring about being a prototypical #3 hitter.


I would rather he come up to the plate with more runners on base.


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Offline  Re: Trading for Paul Goldschmidt
#63

Posted: October 23, 2018, 5:51 AM Post
Posts: 15677
Brew4U said:
I assume Aguilar won't return to his first half form because to me it is not realistic. He's an .800 OPS guy for me. It's not that he is a terrible player (although I cannot stand his lack of hustle) it just makes more sense. Braun might be upgradable but with roster construction, it probably isn't going to happen, so the focus could be put on Aguilar.


Why .800? He was .890 this year and .837 last year. It's not like he's at a declining age or anything. Yes it's probably unlikely for him to go back to his first half form. But I think he's more than likely a pretty good hitter who wore down in 2018 with daily playing time.

If Yelich was a free agent after 2019 and we wanted to take a shot, I'd say go for it. But I think we have to look at this from a big picture perspective. Is Goldschmidt an upgrade for this year, certainly. But for what he'd cost in trade capital and then payroll cost if we kept him, no I don't think its worth it. I seriously doubt he would go for a 5/110 type extension anyway and then we'd be back to square one. Even if he did, I have some major concerns about a 5 year extension for a then 32 year old first baseman.

I think if we could land Wilson Ramos and Jed Lowrie we'd be in pretty good shape with what we can upgrade offensively, and we'd get to keep our trade pieces.


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Offline  Re: Trading for Paul Goldschmidt
#64

Posted: October 23, 2018, 7:01 AM Post
User avatar
Posts: 11032
Location: Milwaukee, WI
adambr2 said:
Brew4U said:
I assume Aguilar won't return to his first half form because to me it is not realistic. He's an .800 OPS guy for me. It's not that he is a terrible player (although I cannot stand his lack of hustle) it just makes more sense. Braun might be upgradable but with roster construction, it probably isn't going to happen, so the focus could be put on Aguilar.


Why .800? He was .890 this year and .837 last year. It's not like he's at a declining age or anything. Yes it's probably unlikely for him to go back to his first half form. But I think he's more than likely a pretty good hitter who wore down in 2018 with daily playing time.

If Yelich was a free agent after 2019 and we wanted to take a shot, I'd say go for it. But I think we have to look at this from a big picture perspective. Is Goldschmidt an upgrade for this year, certainly. But for what he'd cost in trade capital and then payroll cost if we kept him, no I don't think its worth it. I seriously doubt he would go for a 5/110 type extension anyway and then we'd be back to square one. Even if he did, I have some major concerns about a 5 year extension for a then 32 year old first baseman.

I think if we could land Wilson Ramos and Jed Lowrie we'd be in pretty good shape with what we can upgrade offensively, and we'd get to keep our trade pieces.


I tend to believe that much of his stat line this season was a fluke. In over 4,000 minor league at bats his stat line was .271/.348/.454/.802. In the end, arguing about it doesn't do much because you're a believer and I'm not. I feel as though we will have pages full of IGT next season questioning what Stearns was doing by not being proactive with Aguilar and trying to move him or upgrade that position.


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Offline  Re: Trading for Paul Goldschmidt
#65

Posted: October 23, 2018, 7:20 AM Post
Posts: 15677
I don't see it. His BABIP was lower than 2017, so it's not like he was just getting lucky. The minor league stat line is a fair argument but players can change and evolve over time.

As you said, you're just not a believer so we're not going to agree on it, but you would at least agree it isn't worth giving up Keston Hiura for what might just be a year of Goldschmidt, wouldn't you? Or Corbin Burnes. These guys are deal breakers even for Goldie, don't you think?

Goldschmidt is bound to be a hot commodity if the Diamondbacks even do dangle him out there and I have major doubts that they will. If they do I'm guessing the prospect laden offers will win out. If he's not available I'm not sure what else is really out there that is pretty much a slam dunk guaranteed upgrade from Aguilar.

And even though I like Aguilar more than you I do have doubts too, I just happen to not think the cost is worth it. The more I think about it I would probably keep Thames around as insurance, he still had a 106 OPS+ in a down year and should be due for positive regression. At the very least I think you'd get decent results from a Aguilar/Thames platoon.

Between Braun, Santana, Thames and Aguilar I'd expect good years out of at least 2 which is enough.


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Offline  Re: Trading for Paul Goldschmidt
#66

Posted: October 23, 2018, 7:33 AM Post
Posts: 3621
Location: Madison, WI
And assuming Thames is still here or you have a good enough infielder for Shaw to play some 1B, or Braun can play some 1B vs RH then you could go back to more of a platoon or shared role like it was to start the year. Jesus again had about a 30 point split in obp and 55ish split in OPS. It would also keep him fresh so hopefully he doesn't tail off like this year. I'd assume it wouldn't be as strict as it was to begin with him only playing vs LH but one or two games per week vs RH to keep him fresh.


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Offline  Re: Trading for Paul Goldschmidt
#67

Posted: October 23, 2018, 8:00 AM Post
Posts: 1277
Location: Madison, WI
True Blue Brew Crew said:
wallus said:
True Blue Brew Crew said:
Yelich can and should be your 3-hole guy. It just requires either a high on base leadoff type to knock Cain down to the 2 hole or a high contact 2 hole guy with Cain remaining at the top. They might even have their #2 hole guy soon to be ready in the wings in the form of Keston Huira. Regardless of whose names appear next to #1 and #2 on the lineup card, Yelich is about as prototypical #3 as they come.


I would rather our best hitter getting more at bats rather than caring about being a prototypical #3 hitter.


I would rather he come up to the plate with more runners on base.


This would have been the ideal year for the Brewers to bat the pitcher 8th. In hindsight, I'm actually really surprised Counsell didn't do this. But in fairness, Arcia would have been the guy hitting 9th and he didn't hit any better than a pitcher for about 2/3rds of the season.


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Offline  Re: Trading for Paul Goldschmidt
#68

Posted: October 23, 2018, 9:59 AM Post
User avatar
Posts: 11032
Location: Milwaukee, WI
adambr2 said:
I don't see it. His BABIP was lower than 2017, so it's not like he was just getting lucky. The minor league stat line is a fair argument but players can change and evolve over time.

As you said, you're just not a believer so we're not going to agree on it, but you would at least agree it isn't worth giving up Keston Hiura for what might just be a year of Goldschmidt, wouldn't you? Or Corbin Burnes. These guys are deal breakers even for Goldie, don't you think?

Goldschmidt is bound to be a hot commodity if the Diamondbacks even do dangle him out there and I have major doubts that they will. If they do I'm guessing the prospect laden offers will win out. If he's not available I'm not sure what else is really out there that is pretty much a slam dunk guaranteed upgrade from Aguilar.

And even though I like Aguilar more than you I do have doubts too, I just happen to not think the cost is worth it. The more I think about it I would probably keep Thames around as insurance, he still had a 106 OPS+ in a down year and should be due for positive regression. At the very least I think you'd get decent results from a Aguilar/Thames platoon.

Between Braun, Santana, Thames and Aguilar I'd expect good years out of at least 2 which is enough.


If you check my poster history on just about any deal, I've been against shipping any of these guys off. I think I've written stay the course on about 50 posts. My original post was intended that if the Dbacks were selling off everything, that they might take younger prospects they feel have a high ceiling. To be honest, I'm not even sure I see the Dbacks selling off at this point so all of this probably is pretty pointless. I just feel we need a major boost to the offense and Goldschmidt would be that game changer at the expense of Aguilar. But again, it is probably not too realistic.


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Offline  Re: Trading for Paul Goldschmidt
#69

Posted: October 23, 2018, 3:42 PM Post
Posts: 633
Lineup construction has very little impact beyond the basics of putting your best hitters 1-5 and trying to stagger L/R somewhat. Having said that, Sabermetric lineup construction would say that Yelich is the ideal #2 hitter; I don't recall though if that's the ideal spot only when the pitcher bats 8th, or if it's true regardless. When you have such a good hitter though you can't really go wrong, has both the OBP and SLG to fit in at #1, #2 and #4. It's more to do with the players around them; Cain is perfect as a leadoff man, and Aguilar/Shaw suit the #4 spot so well that it makes #2 an easy choice.


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Offline  Goldschmidt
#70

Posted: December 04, 2018, 1:42 PM Post
Posts: 3810
Location: New Berlin, WI
I'm seeing an awful lot of smoke about a Goldschmidt to the Cardinals trade. Is anyone else seeing similar? I wonder what the Cardinals would do with Carpenter if this happens. He's a pretty bad 3b and 2b defensively...and that's one less spot for Jose Martinez to play. They could have a truly dreadful defense next year if this trade happens.

https://twitter.com/jonmorosi/status/10 ... 6248787968


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Offline  Re: Goldschmidt
#71

Posted: December 04, 2018, 1:58 PM Post
Posts: 3621
Location: Madison, WI
IDK, maybe Martinez would go back to AZ, then STL plays Carpenter at 3B and live with it.


Last edited by tmwiese55 on December 04, 2018, 2:25 PM, edited 1 time in total.

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Online  Re: Goldschmidt
#72

Posted: December 04, 2018, 2:00 PM Post
User avatar
Posts: 5367
I don't know about you guys, but Goldschmidt going to the Cardinals would bother the crap out of me. Because he's good.


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Offline  Re: Goldschmidt
#73

Posted: December 04, 2018, 2:02 PM Post
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Posts: 2377
Jose Martinez has to be dealt to an AL team. He's that bad on defense.


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Offline  Re: Goldschmidt
#74

Posted: December 04, 2018, 2:23 PM Post
Posts: 633
Jose Martinez batting stance makes me irrationally angry, so I hope he does gets traded to the AL so I won't have to see it as often. He's also a good hitter, so there's another reason right there.


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Offline  Re: Goldschmidt
#75

Posted: December 04, 2018, 2:24 PM Post
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Posts: 9298
Goldschmidt makes the cards much better.


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Offline  Re: Goldschmidt
#76

Posted: December 04, 2018, 2:37 PM Post
Posts: 3810
Location: New Berlin, WI
I'm a big proponent of balance in your lineup. You really need at least 2 LH bats, and the Cards only have Carpenter. From that perspective, adding Goldschmidt is a bit weird as he's yet another RH bat. I think it would be a better use of the Cards resources to try and trade for someone like Thames. Them acquiring Thames is wildly unlikely for so many reasons, but the primary reason is the balance. There are plenty of guys similar enough to Thames in the league though. The Cards could bat Carpenter 2nd and Thames clone 5th or 6th against RH SP...those 2 guys would rarely face a lefty until late in the game. They have enough depth to let Thames clone only play against RH SP and move Carpenter or someone else to 1st against LH SP.

If the Cards make a FA splash of Goldschmidt plus a LH bat, and the Reds acquire some high-end SP as they are rumored to be targeting(coupled with DJ making their rotation better as is)...the NL central could be ridiculous. The Cubs would probably still have the best roster, the Brewers made the NLCS, and the Pirates roster really isn't that bad.

To end my rant, there aren't many teams in the NL that really aren't trying to win now or are positioned to win very soon. The Marlins, maybe the Giants depending if MB is traded...who else? The Padres have a ridiculous farm system with many top guys in AAA or at the MLB level already, and they are reportedly looking at win now moves. They could be good this year. The Pirates made the move for Archer last deadline and really aren't losing much to FA. They tend to be solid/scrappy, not exactly what you want to be but for sure not a tanking team. The Reds are positioned to be good as soon as they get some SP. The Mets appear to be trying to bounce back with recent moves. The Nationals still have a very good roster even without Harper.


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Offline  Re: Goldschmidt
#77

Posted: December 05, 2018, 11:23 AM Post
Posts: 1088
Can we get Goldschmidt? What would it take? Aggie and Woodruff do it?

I'd make that deal.


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Offline  Re: Goldschmidt
#78

Posted: December 05, 2018, 11:33 AM Post
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Posts: 973
PlayerHader said:
Can we get Goldschmidt? What would it take? Aggie and Woodruff do it?

I'd make that deal.


It would probably take a third major piece to land him, IMO.

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Offline  Re: Goldschmidt
#79

Posted: December 05, 2018, 11:41 AM Post
Posts: 1088
A Swing and A Drive said:
PlayerHader said:
Can we get Goldschmidt? What would it take? Aggie and Woodruff do it?

I'd make that deal.


It would probably take a third major piece to land him, IMO.


Really? For one year? Those are two viable Major League Starters with control. One with pretty good upside as a SP.

A minor league ticket maybe, but I think that's pretty damn good value already.


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Offline  Re: Goldschmidt
#80

Posted: December 05, 2018, 11:46 AM Post
Posts: 3621
Location: Madison, WI
Might as well get weird, get Greinke involved too with them kicking in money.

FYI: this thread already happened a few weeks ago viewtopic.php?f=66&t=37728


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