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What is your 2018-2019 Offseason Plan for the Brewers?

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Offline  What is your 2018-2019 Offseason Plan for the Brewers?
#1

Posted: October 30, 2018, 2:01 PM Post
Posts: 3854
Last year, inspired by BrewCrewBall.com's offseason plan, I drew up my own:
viewtopic.php?f=63&t=36093

ARBITRATION
Jimmy Nelson - TENDER
Zach Davies - TENDER
Stephen Vogt - NON-TENDER (minor-league deal with NRI)
Hernan Perez - TENDER (sign to five-year, $20 million extension)
Corey Knebel - TENDER (sign to five-year, $30 million extension)
Travis Shaw - TENDER (sign to six-year, $36 million extension)
Domingo Santana - TENDER
Jonathan Schoop - TENDER
Dan Jennings - NON-TENDER
Xavier Cedeno - TENDER
Erik Kratz - NON-TENDER
Tyler Saladino - NON-TENDER

FREE AGENCY OPTIONS
Mike Moustakas - Exercise
Joakim Soria - Decline
Jeremy Jeffress - Exercise
Jordan Lyles - Decline
Wade Miley - Extend QO (re-sign to 4-year, $40 million deal)
Gio Gonzales - Walk
Curtis Granderson - Walk

RELEASE
Matt Albers

Total spots taken on 40-man: 31

RULE 5 PROTECTION
OF Troy Stokes Jr., IF Jake Hager, RHPs Cody Ponce, Jon Olczak, Bubba Derby, Trey Supak, Conor Harber, and LHP Quintin Torres-Costa to 40-man.

Total spots taken on 40-man: 39

RULE 5 DRAFT
Select C Patrick Mazieka from Mets

Total spots taken on 40-man: 40

TRADES
Minnesota Twins
Twins get:
2B/SS Jonathan Schoop
1B/OF/DH Eric Thames

Brewers get:
UT Willians Astudillo - to 40-man
RHP Bailey Ober
LHP Erik Cha

Detroit Tigers
Tigers get:
RHP Chase Anderson
OF Keon Broxton
RHP Aaron Wilkerson

Brewers get:
IF Kody Clemens
LHP Trent Szkutnik

Total spots taken on 40-man: 37

FREE AGENTS
IF Asdrubal Cabrera (3 years/$18 million)
LHP Tony Sipp (2 years/$10 million)

40-man Roster addition
Keston Hiura


Final 25-man roster:
cf: Cain
lf: Braun
rf: Yelich
1b: Aguilar
2b: Shaw
3b: Moustakas
c: Pina
ss: Arcia
bench: Mazieka, Cabrera, Perez, Astudillo, Santana
rotation: Chacin, Miley, Burnes, Woodruff, Davies
bullpen: Knebel, Sipp, Hader, Jeffress, Peralta, Cedeno, Guerra

Other notes: Jimmy Nelson, Keston Hiura, Jake Hager, Troy Stokes, Tyrone Taylor among those optioned to minors.


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Offline  Re: What is your 2018-2019 Offseason Plan for the Brewers?
#2

Posted: October 30, 2018, 9:33 PM Post
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-Let Moustakas walk

-Bring Schoop back

-Trade Anderson for salary relief

-Sign Yasmani Grandal to a 4-year deal

-Scour the scrap heap for high-upside RP/SP

PS - clancy, better not let Shaw's agent see that you are offering him barely more than Hernan Perez [laughing]


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Offline  Re: What is your 2018-2019 Offseason Plan for the Brewers?
#3

Posted: October 30, 2018, 11:06 PM Post
Posts: 2554
SRB said:
-Let Moustakas walk

-Bring Schoop back

-Trade Anderson for salary relief

-Sign Yasmani Grandal to a 4-year deal

-Scour the scrap heap for high-upside RP/SP

PS - clancy, better not let Shaw's agent see that you are offering him barely more than Hernan Perez [laughing]

Grandal was quite the liability for the Dodgers in the NLCS. I don't want anything to do with him. (Side note: Wasn't he also one of the Biogenesis names, too?)


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Offline  Re: What is your 2018-2019 Offseason Plan for the Brewers?
#4

Posted: October 30, 2018, 11:48 PM Post
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-Sign Wilson Ramos and Marwin Gonzalez

-Trade away some veterans and replenish the minor league system (Thames/Santana/Schoop/Broxton, Anderson/Davies/Nelson/Guerra)

-Make a few Chacin/Miley type signings mostly for the pen. None of them worked last year, but keep bringing in talented relievers and hope to catch lightning in a bottle (Andrew Miller? Cody Allen? Kelvin Herrera? Soria? Britton? Robertson? Ryu? Morton? Sabathia? Happ? One or two of those guys and a few other flyers)

-Fill in other holes depending on who was traded away.


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Offline  Re: What is your 2018-2019 Offseason Plan for the Brewers?
#5

Posted: October 31, 2018, 7:46 AM Post
Posts: 585
- Maybe tender Jonathan Schoop. I don't remember the exact specifics, but the team isn't on the hook for more than a small part of the salary if the player is released before the start of the season or some such. Now this decision obviously will have to come down to things that us outside the organization are not privy to. Basically if there were obvious and fixable (With a full offseason) reasons for him underperforming so massively (Like injury, problems adapting, psychological issues, fixable mechanical flaws) Brewers should very much consider offering arbitration. I'm not a big fan of the type of player he is overall, but if he plays to his career levels (League-average bat, above-average 2B defense) or better then he's worth keeping. If the Brewers don't believe this, however, then they move on.

However I'll operate under the assumption that the Brewers do not tender Schoop for the following moves though.

- Acquire a RHB to play 2B and/or 3B. If Josh Donaldson can be had for a 1-year or 1-year + options "prove your health" type of deal we should be all over that. Hard to come up with specific names, depends so much on the markets for these guys. Brian Dozier, Marwin Gonzalez and Whit Merrifield are all players in very different circumstances and costs, but at the right price they're all possibilities.

- Acquire a catcher. Realmuto will be too expensive in prospects, and I expect Grandal (despite the postseason he had) to be a very expensive free agent. If either one happens to be available at a reasonable cost, then sure, but that's unlikely. There are a bunch of other veteran FA catchers out there, Ramos probably the best among them. Have a look at that, and explore some trades for blocked backups/prospects or solid catchers for rebuilding teams. Whoever is acquired will feature alongside Manny Piña, the exact role distribution depending on who we end up with.

- Left-handed pitching. Could be a starter like Miley or Gonzales or even Keuchel if they want to go big. But could also be a reliever or two; I quite like Will Smith if the Giants are rebuilding.

Those three are the main ones for me. Explore trades for Anderson, Thames, Broxton; If the first two happen there'll be quite a bit more salary to play around with, which will affect the moves above. Losing Thames would also mean that another lefty could be a target; or make sure the righty you get can hit righties well.


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Offline  Re: What is your 2018-2019 Offseason Plan for the Brewers?
#6

Posted: October 31, 2018, 10:12 AM Post
Posts: 346
I'm bored at work so this is pretty much where I'm at:
-Non-tender Schoop is the biggest thing
-I didn't list trade targets I'm interested in since we don't have a great idea of who will likely be available\
-If they're unable to move the salaries of Anderson and/or Thames I am concerned with their financial flexibility. I don't know how high they'll push the opening day payroll. $110-120m feels about right, but I don't really have any basis other than historically where they've maxed out.

Attachments:

2019 payroll.JPG
2019 payroll.JPG [ 129.77 KiB | Viewed 1192 times ]
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Offline  Re: What is your 2018-2019 Offseason Plan for the Brewers?
#7

Posted: October 31, 2018, 1:38 PM Post
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I really hope they give Burnes and Woodruff/Peralta a shot at the rotation, so we have Chacin, Nelson, Anderson, Burnes, Davies, Woodruff, and Peralta, so we probably don't need to go overboard looking for more starting pitching. Nelson is a question mark, but I would hope at this time that the Brewers have a decent idea where he stands.

Even with Burnes and Woodruff moving to the rotation, the bullpen should be strong, and we should have minor leaguers to bolster it. I could see us looking to add a veteran if Stearns can find someone that he thinks is a good deal.

I would look to trade Thames. I like him, but Aguilar has taken the everyday role at 1B, and Braun, Shaw, and Perez can fill in his off-days. I don't expect MLB talent back in trade if someone takes on his salary, but I'm fine with Stearns trading him for young minor leaguers and salary relief.

Assuming Vogt is healthy, we have three catchers, so one of Pina, Vogt, or Kratz will be gone. It would be great if we could get anything in return, but I'd guess we'll just non-tender someone so we don't risk getting stuck with the salary. I don't really have a pecking order, but memories of Vogt skipping the ball to second base makes him my odd-man-out.

If we could get good return for Santana or Broxton, we could trade them, but I'm fine with holding them as the #4/5 outfielders. That makes more sense to me than holding Thames as a second first-baseman. Santana has a good bat, and Broxton is a good defender with power. Both have value to a playoff-hopeful team.

So, my position player roster would be:

1B: Aguilar
2B: Schoop
SS: Arcia
3B: Shaw
C: Pina
LF: Braun
CF: Cain
RF: Yelich

Bench
C: Kratz
Util: Perez
Util: ? maybe Saladino
OF: Broxton
OF: Santana

I guess the big thing here is that we probably shouldn't look for any big changes this offseason. We don't have a lot of extra money to spend, and we should have most of the 2018 playoff team back.

"The most successful (people) know that performance over the long haul is what counts. If you can seize the day, great. But never forget that there are days yet to come."

~Bill Walsh


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Offline  Re: What is your 2018-2019 Offseason Plan for the Brewers?
#8

Posted: November 01, 2018, 8:24 AM Post
Posts: 3854
Kratz's age is perhaps a sign he nay not be back.

The Rule 5 offers Mazieka as an option - if the Mets do not protect him. A high-average, good-OBP bat-first option who would complement Pina well, IMO.


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Offline  Re: What is your 2018-2019 Offseason Plan for the Brewers?
#9

Posted: November 01, 2018, 3:38 PM Post
Posts: 3571
Location: New Berlin, WI
https://fancredsports.com/Articles/insi ... for-131-of

I just want to add this. At these prices, give me Pollock and Miller. Braun becomes a 4th OF and backup 1b when Pollock is healthy. One of Thames/Aguilar is gone. Perez/Saladino/insert cheap IF...at 2b until Hiura comes up. I know this won't happen but I'm a huge Pollock fan and would love to find a spot for him on this roster.


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Offline  Re: What is your 2018-2019 Offseason Plan for the Brewers?
#10

Posted: November 01, 2018, 4:08 PM Post
Posts: 346
KeithStone53151 said:
https://fancredsports.com/Articles/inside-baseball-predicting-the-deals-for-131-of

I just want to add this. At these prices, give me Pollock and Miller. Braun becomes a 4th OF and backup 1b when Pollock is healthy. One of Thames/Aguilar is gone. Perez/Saladino/insert cheap IF...at 2b until Hiura comes up. I know this won't happen but I'm a huge Pollock fan and would love to find a spot for him on this roster.


I browsed through that post this morning. I didn’t read the write ups but did take note of the contract predictions.

Some of them are cringeworthy. When I did the free agent crowdsourcing stuff over at fangraphs I was significantly lower than most of these. Maybe I’m a prisoner of last offseason but some of those are nutty.

Outside of like 4 guys I don’t see any contracts of 4+ years

I agree that the price tag on Pollock would be very appealing even if it means basically punting on Braun as a primary starter.


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Offline  Re: What is your 2018-2019 Offseason Plan for the Brewers?
#11

Posted: November 01, 2018, 7:30 PM Post
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KeithStone53151 said:
https://fancredsports.com/Articles/inside-baseball-predicting-the-deals-for-131-of

I just want to add this. At these prices, give me Pollock and Miller. Braun becomes a 4th OF and backup 1b when Pollock is healthy. One of Thames/Aguilar is gone. Perez/Saladino/insert cheap IF...at 2b until Hiura comes up. I know this won't happen but I'm a huge Pollock fan and would love to find a spot for him on this roster.


Ok, I’ll bite: explain the love for Pollock. By my estimation, he’s never been the same since he broke his arm a few years ago. He’s an above-average defender, granted, but his bat is basically what we’re getting from Braun, and I’d even argue that when Braun is rolling, he’s clearly better than what you’re likely to get from Pollock offensively. Do we really need this addition when we already have plus-plus defense from CF and plus defense from Yelich enabling us to cover for Braun anyway? What am I missing?

What is best in life? To crush the Cardinals, Cubs, and Manny Machado, see them driven before you, and hear the lamentation of their fanboys.


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Offline  Re: What is your 2018-2019 Offseason Plan for the Brewers?
#12

Posted: November 01, 2018, 7:59 PM Post
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Flipping through these, the contracts that stood out as potentially most valuable to me were:

-Josh Harrison (always been a fan, but depends what you think of his D and whether his offensive skills declined last year)
-Yasmani Grandal (would be a STEAL at 3/$39MM)
-Andrew Miller (a bullpen with Miller and Hader would be pretty great)
-DJ LeMahieu (probably limited to second base but has produced year after year)
-Craig Kimbrel ($60 mil is a lot for a reliever, but he's one of the ones worth it)
-AJ Pollack (Does lots well, but nothing great so maybe not necessary)
-Andrew McCutchen (If he's somehow about the same price as Pollack, or even a little more, I'd go with McCutchen)


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Offline  Re: What is your 2018-2019 Offseason Plan for the Brewers?
#13

Posted: November 01, 2018, 8:38 PM Post
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This talk about Yasmani Grandal is scary, to me. The guy was an unbelievably horrible defensive catcher in the playoffs...

The David Stearns era: Controllable Young Talent. Watch the Jedi work his magic!


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Offline  Re: What is your 2018-2019 Offseason Plan for the Brewers?
#14

Posted: November 01, 2018, 8:42 PM Post
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I would look at Harrison or DJ?

I also think either davies or Chase is gone.


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Offline  Re: What is your 2018-2019 Offseason Plan for the Brewers?
#15

Posted: November 01, 2018, 9:08 PM Post
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3and2Fastball said:
This talk about Yasmani Grandal is scary, to me. The guy was an unbelievably horrible defensive catcher in the playoffs...

Which was great for the Brewers then and great for the Brewers now if it knocks $10-$20 mil off of his market value. He’s one of the best all around catchers in the game. And compared to Realmuto, super cheap to acquire.


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Offline  Re: What is your 2018-2019 Offseason Plan for the Brewers?
#16

Posted: November 02, 2018, 5:19 AM Post
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3and2Fastball said:
This talk about Yasmani Grandal is scary, to me. The guy was an unbelievably horrible defensive catcher in the playoffs...


He was indeed awful in that series. But I would hope any decision is made not based on a couple of games, but rather the hundreds of games he has amassed over his career. Over the last 4 seasons (min. 1000 PA) only Posey and Sanchez have been better offensively. Baseball Prospectus, which includes framing in their metrics, has him as the best defensive catcher this year; mainly thanks to some of the best framing in the league, but the blocking is positive too. FWIW, in a partial season Erik Kratz is 8th, Piña is 19th.. and Realmuto is 54th, largely on account of framing.

Anyway, while I expect the playoffs takes some value of what he'll get, I don't expect it to be by much. MLB execs these days are (or should be) smarter than that. If it does come down a fair bit though, we should be in on it.


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Offline  Re: What is your 2018-2019 Offseason Plan for the Brewers?
#17

Posted: November 02, 2018, 11:13 AM Post
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Dodger will give Grandal a QO so that will take him off the table for us. Or at least it should.


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Offline  Re: What is your 2018-2019 Offseason Plan for the Brewers?
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Posted: November 02, 2018, 1:01 PM Post
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And maybe the Brewers don't really have any payroll room at all.
(I haven't dug into this and that doesn't seem right, but nonetheless, it's data.)


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Offline  Re: What is your 2018-2019 Offseason Plan for the Brewers?
#19

Posted: November 02, 2018, 1:20 PM Post
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And That said:
And maybe the Brewers don't really have any payroll room at all.
(I haven't dug into this and that doesn't seem right, but nonetheless, it's data.)


It's a purely data-driven analysis, and thus doesn't make any assumptions of shifting intent. Brewers ran a low payroll for the last few years while rebuilding, but obviously the data doesn't know that so it expects the payroll to stay at similar levels. Likewise the Orioles have run a high payroll for many years, yet they or Detroit clearly won't spend $100m+ on FAs. It also assumes that tenders are extended to all arbitration-eligible players.

I think the useful part of that article is seeing the payroll estimates for next year; things like the Cubs already being above the luxury tax without any FA signings (Don't know if the Smyly trade changes that) which I hadn't realized; i knew they had a lot of money committed, but not quite that much. Or how much room teams like the Rays and White Sox have. I could see some surprise teams in on some big free agents, acquiring those players on long-term deals a year or two ahead of schedule. A bit like with Hosmer, except hopefully smarter...


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Offline  Re: What is your 2018-2019 Offseason Plan for the Brewers?
#20

Posted: November 02, 2018, 2:43 PM Post
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And That said:
And maybe the Brewers don't really have any payroll room at all.
(I haven't dug into this and that doesn't seem right, but nonetheless, it's data.)


Cots has the Brewers around $111m if they retain all of their arby guys, so I don't think they'll have much money to play with this offseason. Thames will probably be traded, freeing up $6m, but that might just get them to where they're comfortable for an opening day payroll. It's possible that Schoop is not retained, freeing up $11m (Cots estimate), which would probably be done if they think that $11m can be better spent elsewhere. All in all, it could be a pretty quiet offseason for the Brewers unless they find a way to shed some payroll.

"The most successful (people) know that performance over the long haul is what counts. If you can seize the day, great. But never forget that there are days yet to come."

~Bill Walsh


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