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What is your 2018-2019 Offseason Plan for the Brewers?

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Offline  Re: What is your 2018-2019 Offseason Plan for the Brewers?
#41

Posted: November 12, 2018, 2:25 PM Post
Posts: 93
Stealing your template JosephC

Arbitration eligible players:
IF - Travis Shaw = 5.1 million
RHP - Corey Knebel = 4.9 million
RHP - Jimmy Nelson = 3.7 million
IF/OF - Hernan Perez = 2.7 million
RHP - Junior Guerra = 2.7 million
RHP - Zach Davies = 2.4 million
OF - Domingo Santana = 2 million
C - Manny Pina = 2 million
LHP - Dan Jennings = 1.6 million



TRADE:
Marlins get RHP-Chase Anderson, Marcos Diplan, Jake Gatewood
Milwaukee Brewers get UTL - Derek Dietrich & Adam Conley

Brewers clear Anderson's salary, while adding useful bench and BP options. Marlins add our #10 & #12 prospects to their farm system, and a controllable SP.

Mariners get Eric Thames, Freddy Peralta, Kestun Huira, Trey Stokes & Adrian Houser
Brewers get James Paxton & Jean Segura
Brewers add a top of the rotations arm & a clear upgrade at 2b. Huira & Peralta are the real pieces here for the Mariners as they get cost controlled SP and 2B to replace Paxton and Segura.



2019 salary in ()
RHP (9) = Jhoulys Chacin (6), Corey Knebel (4.9), Jimmy Nelson (3.7), Jeremy Jeffress (3.175), Junior Guerra (2.7), Matt Albers (2.5), Zach Davies (2.4) Corbin Burnes (0.575), Brandon Woodruff (0.575) - TOTAL RHP SALARY = 26.4 million
LHP (4) = James Paxton (9), Dan Jennings (1.6), Josh Hader (0.575), Adam Conley (1.5) - TOTAL LHP SALARY = 12.675 million
C (2) = Manny Pina (1.8). Jacob Nottingham (.575) - TOTAL C SALARY = 2.375 million
IF (6) = Jean Segura (14.25) Travis Shaw (5.1), Hernan Perez (2.7), Derek Dietrich (1.5), Jesus Aguilar (0.575), Orlando Arcia (0.575) - TOTAL IF SALARY = 24.7 million
OF (4) = Ryan Braun (18), Lorenzo Cain (15), Christian Yelich (9.75), Domingo Santana (2) = 44.75 million

TOTAL SALARY OF ALL ABOVE = 110.9 million

Rotation: Paxton, Chacin, Nelson, Burnes, Woodruff/Davies
Bullpen: Hader, Knebel, Jeffress, Guerra, Albers, Conley, Jennings

Lineup:
Cain - CF
Segura - 2B
Yelich - RF
Aguilar - 1B
Shaw - 3B
Braun - LF
Pina - C
Arcia - SS

Bench: Santana, Perez, Dietrich, Nottingham


Flame away [wink]


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Offline  Re: What is your 2018-2019 Offseason Plan for the Brewers?
#42

Posted: November 15, 2018, 4:49 PM Post
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Posts: 1172
After thinking it over, it's a bit of a hold year for me. If you believe that Hiura is close; Woodruff, Burnes and Peralta can handle an expanded role and Arcia's bat is closer to the end of the season model then there's not much to do.

If they could get Paxton or Realmuto for some combination of Santana, Peralta, Ray, Davies, Anderson, and Brown then count me in on that.

Otherwise I'll advocate for a 6 man rotation consisting of Chacin, Anderson/Davies, Woodruff, Burnes, Peralta, and Nelson. Most of that group I'm guessing would have some sort of inning restriction so the 6-man thing should help.

I'd also monitor the Josh Donaldson market. That would probably mean non-tendering Schoop and trading Thames and/or Anderson if they're needing to stay near the current payroll.

............also, I really enjoy reading though some of the detailed responses in this thread.


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Offline  Re: What is your 2018-2019 Offseason Plan for the Brewers?
#43

Posted: November 15, 2018, 6:07 PM Post
Posts: 2757
mlloyd10 said:
See if Peralta/Ray gets you Mad Bum


Weren't we in discussions to trade Hart for Mad Bum years ago? I thought the Giants had two really nice pitching prospects(along with a dominant 1-2 of Lincecum and Cain at the time)? I'm thinking we tried swining a deal, Hart for Sanchez(who was more valuable at the time) and Bumgardner.

Anyway, that's a dream deal....that'd be like a Yelich type deal. Execpt one is a 3 time WS champ...and the driving force in those Championship teams and beloved by a rabid fan base and Yelich was an extremely talented young OF'er, but probably the 3rd most popular OF'er on his own team among what is generally considered the...thinnest fan base in the NL(though only 2nd in the NL).


So it'd be great, but if you had him and you'd seen your team turn it around in years in which they did NOT look like a contender, how much would it take for you to give him up? You're STARTING with Hirura and then asking for a Burnes/Peralta type.


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Offline  Re: What is your 2018-2019 Offseason Plan for the Brewers?
#44

Posted: November 15, 2018, 6:15 PM Post
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Posts: 7691
cvollbrecht said:

TRADE:
Marlins get RHP-Chase Anderson, Marcos Diplan, Jake Gatewood
Milwaukee Brewers get UTL - Derek Dietrich & Adam Conley

Brewers clear Anderson's salary, while adding useful bench and BP options. Marlins add our #10 & #12 prospects to their farm system, and a controllable SP.


Sorry, just not a fan of this one. Conley is just kind of a guy. His FIP was nice last year, but when you adjust for not playing half your games in Miami, yikes. And Dietrich is only useful if he's only a bat off the bench. His defense is so bad, it eroded most of his offensive value last year.


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Offline  Re: What is your 2018-2019 Offseason Plan for the Brewers?
#45

Posted: November 15, 2018, 6:58 PM Post
Posts: 2757
mlloyd10 said:
See if Peralta/Ray gets you Mad Bum


Weren't we in discussions to trade Hart for Mad Bum years ago? I thought the Giants had two really nice pitching prospects(along with a dominant 1-2 of Lincecum and Cain at the time)? I'm thinking we tried swining a deal, Hart for Sanchez(who was more valuable at the time) and Bumgardner.

Anyway, that's a dream deal....that'd be like a Yelich type deal. Execpt one is a 3 time WS champ...and the driving force in those Championship teams and beloved by a rabid fan base and Yelich was an extremely talented young OF'er, but probably the 3rd most popular OF'er on his own team among what is generally considered the...thinnest fan base in the NL(though only 2nd in the NL).


So it'd be great, but if you had him and you'd seen your team turn it around in years in which they did NOT look like a contender, how much would it take for you to give him up? You're STARTING with Hirura and then asking for a Burnes/Peralta type.


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Offline  Re: What is your 2018-2019 Offseason Plan for the Brewers?
#46

Posted: November 15, 2018, 7:30 PM Post
Posts: 2757
Patrick Corbin 5 years 125 million, 6th year team option for 28 million, 7 million buyout, player option after 3. Makes it a 5 year 132 for a guy who is a power lefty who is a TOR type starter, would pair beautifully with Nelson and give the Brewers a 1-2 punch like we'd HOPED when we added CC before Sheets went down.

Now his birth place of Syracuse and a certain evil empire wanting him may be a hinderance to that idea, but if they manage to schoop up Machado, they may not want to spend any more. They've become more cost-conscious, trying to stay under the luxury tax. And that deal is a final offer and a competitive one.


If they can pull that off, then I'm happy to see Schoop leave, even though I like him and think he'll bounce back and go with Dubon/Hirura, the later after he spends that extra 2 months he needs in AAA honing his skills. I'm alright with letting Anderson walk for 6 million, even though I feel like he can bounce back...and remember, it was on this board where people were honestly debating in July of so who should get the start in a one game playoff, him or Jimmy Nelson...and plenty went with him. That's obviously only anecdotal, but a reminder what a nice pitcher he was for us in 2017.


Bringing in a TOR pitcher also could do wonders for the BP. It could allow us to keep Woodruff down there...and I think he's a better fit down there. I think his stuff really plays up in the pen. I think Burnes is a starter either way this year along with Chacin, but if you could keep Peralta and Woody in the pen....you keep that a strength and you make your rotation a strength by essentially adding two ace-type pitchers in Nelson and Corbin to last years team. And given the confidence that I have that Hirura is going to come outof the gate and perform well enough to plug inbetween Cain and Yellich and be a good #2 hitter this year, I think we're already se up for a pretty nice boost from last year to even out what may have been some players over-performing.


Oh..and I'd let Moose walk either way. Not because I don't like him, but because he's redudant. Get a regular 2nd basemen in there, but you don't need another Travis Shaw for 20 million dollars.



If you don't sign Corbin, stay out of the big money starting pitcher market as I'm not real confident in any of the second tier guys and isntead look to add to that pen. There are a number of guys who look like they could be significant contributors to this team, starting with Andrew Miller. Why throw Josh Hader 2-3 times a week when you could throw him 4 times a week? Of course that assumes he's healthy and that we're able to get him on a relatively team friendly deal after dealnig with injuries last yeare. But what a two headed monster that'd be in the pen? I also like Britton as a potential target, or even Greg Holland. the later because he pitched bettera after leaing the cards last year and has great stuff, but also because it'd just be awesome to sign him to a deal for about half what the Cards spent and watch him put up Jeffress like numbers.


So perfect world, come July 2019, here's how we look;

Cain-CF
Hirura-2B
Yelich-LF
Braun-RF
Shaw-3rd
Aguilar-1st
Pina/Under the radar pickup-C
Arcia(whom I think can produce like he did in 2017 and is great with the glove obviously).

Rotation
1-Corbin
1A-Nelson(assuming health...which is always a big assumption with a shoulder injury).
3-Chacin
4-Burnes
5-Whoever wins the job, many candidates. I'd like to see Woodruff in the pen, so I guess Peralta for now.

BP
Knebel
Hader
Jeffress
Woodruff
Houser
Gurerra
...and who really knows what this will look like. You don't often know from one year to the next who's gonna show up. I'm really only confident after the first two. I could see Barnes being a primary SU man or gone. He has the stuff for it, just has to get it under control. And who knows if we have a Peralta pop up this year in the form of a Zach Brown, of maybe even a wild card like Bickford gets his act togteher and now as a reliever puts it all together.

Bench
-Santana-I think the 2nd stint showed he could thrive in this role and he should be able to get 350+ AB's.
-Dubon-A plus defender at 2nd and SS. A upgrade from Perez
-Broxton-All the tools in the world
-Nottingham I guess as the back up catcher right now?

And maybe a utility IF'er...though I think Marwin is gonna get more than he's worth to US to play next year.


Even if we sign Corbin, we all know that things will never shake out like we think they will right now. There'll be a guy we expected nothing from giving us big innings/AB's, a guy we were counting on doing next to nothing and everything in between. But I just can't imagine a better time and a better team to add a guy like Patrick Corbin to since I've been a Brewers fan. It'd allow them to keep their BP dominance AND have a couple dominant starters so you're not relying on prefection in the post-season from EVERY one of the 7 pitchers you bring in.


As for Miley and Gio if either are willing to come back for ~5 million, I'd be on board. But I think both get more elsehwere....


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Offline  Re: What is your 2018-2019 Offseason Plan for the Brewers?
#47

Posted: November 16, 2018, 1:19 AM Post
Posts: 269
Location: Washburn, WI
I honestly don’t see why Corbin gets the love that he does from some people. He was so bad in 2016 that he got moved to the BULLPEN. In 2017, his ERA was nearly 5 prior to a 5 start span in mid August where he dominated and significantly lowered it right before the end of the season. The Diamondbacks were contemplating letting him walk after 2017 because he wasn’t even worth a few million dollars.

There is no way a guy went from almost not receiving an arbitration offer prior to the 2018 season to getting $25 million or more for 5 or 6 years. He has no track record of this type of success. He had one fantastic year in his contract season. This would be a move that would make us look foolish if he even pitched at Chacin’s level. If we are giving out that large of a contract, it needs to be for the Scherzer’s, Kershaw’s, and Degrom’s of the world.

To put in perspective, Chase Anderson was dominant for a year and a half and look at what we are paying him. Their career numbers are fairly similar. I just don’t see it. It only takes one team to do it, but it wouldn’t surprise me if he ends up with a deal similar to what Cobb got last offseason around 4/$60 million.


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Offline  Re: What is your 2018-2019 Offseason Plan for the Brewers?
#48

Posted: November 16, 2018, 3:06 PM Post
Posts: 497
Location: Milwaukee
Our 2b position just slashed 227/290/668. Hiura immediately, and significantly, improves that. Our C position just slashed 237/294/657. Signing 1 of Suzuki/Grandal/Ramos immediately, and significantly, improves that. Pina is a top half catcher in MLB - it's the backup spot that kills us, even though Kratz/Vogt/Bandy have had their moments they're just not good. I'd personally go with Suzuki because he's very cheap compared to the other two and can be had for either 1 or 2yrs. Plus, I believe in Nottingham being a starting catcher and signing someone like Suzuki allows for a Marwin signing as well whereas not sure we can land both Grandal and Marwin while adding others.

1 - I'd trade Thames (Lind style) and decline Schoop
2 - Sign Marwin to 4/44 and Suzuki to 1/5 or 2/8
3 - Sign Granderson to 1/3
4 - Sign Pomeranz to 1/6 (going off MLBTR) or to a Chacin type deal
5 - Trade Davies/Santana/Supak for Paxton/prospect (I don't think Seattle is tearing it down as their top prospects are all 2-3yrs away and they can push for the WC still - they were a 500 team in 2nd half and had a negative run differential but didn't have Cano in 2nd half and Seager had down season. Cano back at 2b, Seager bounces back, Santana at DH, Mallex Smith in CF, Vogelbach is a year younger than Healy and will outproduce him right away even if only marginally, Gordon to LF and filling in IF with Gamel in OF too, find a catcher and they're improved offensively as a whole. If they were mailing it in not sure why they'd trade 2 MLB players for 4yrs of an exciting young MLB CF. Replacing 2yrs of 3.3 bWAR Paxton with 3yrs of 2.5 bWAR Davies (and much cheaper) while adding Santana at DH for 3yrs (much cheaper than Cruz and huge upgrade to current DH Vogelbach) helps solidify their MLB team giving their prospects more time to develop while also gaining a good young pitching prospect who could split AA/AAA and he doesn't turn 23 until almost midseason and slides into Top 8 in their system right away. We upgrade our rotation over last year).

Pina/Suzuki, Aguilar, Marwin, Arcia, Shaw, Braun, Cain, Yelich to start with bench of Perez, Granderson, Dubon (and whichever catcher isn't starting). Rotation of Paxton, Chacin, Pomeranz, Chase, Burnes and pen of Hader, Knebel, Jeffress, Cedeno, Jennings, Barnes, Nelson, Woodruff. Peralta/Guerra in AAA. Hiura up by June - at that point I either put Dubon back in AAA playing full time or, if Dubon is performing, I'd look at trading Perez. If I added this up correctly it's around 120M for 2019. There's several trade candidates moving forward on this roster too that can clear some money (Chase, Perez) and both of them are easily replaced by Dubon and Peralta (or Woodruff).

*all that said I'd actually be shocked if Peralta or Woodruff isn't moved this offseason


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Offline  Re: What is your 2018-2019 Offseason Plan for the Brewers?
#49

Posted: November 16, 2018, 10:54 PM Post
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I would move Chase too if they can find a team to take him.


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Online  Re: What is your 2018-2019 Offseason Plan for the Brewers?
#50

Posted: November 17, 2018, 1:21 PM Post
Posts: 173
I'm sure that I'm not the first one here to say this, but I wouldn't be shocked if the Brewers looked to add a bat and relief pitching rather than a starter.

The addition of Moustakas and Schoop last season tells me that they feel that there are holes in the lineup and/or on the bench and, after their strong showing
in the playoffs, I suspect that both Woodruff and Burnes will get a shot at the rotation in ST.

Chacin
Burnes (already stated by Steans/Counsell)
Woodruff
Nelson (assuming he's ready)
Anderson
Davies
Peralta
Guerra (if offered arbitration)

And that's not even taking into account:

Suter (won't be ready for ST)
Miley (FA)
Gio (FA)

That's not a bad group to choose from - especially for the long term. I wouldn't be surprised to see them make a move for a #1 (or a #2 with potential to get even better), but I can't see them picking up another mid-rotation starter. Of course, pulling arms from the bullpen (looking at Woodruff and Burnes) would necessitate getting replacements there...

Of course, I reserve the right to be completely wrong... [laughing]


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Offline  Re: What is your 2018-2019 Offseason Plan for the Brewers?
#51

Posted: November 17, 2018, 2:27 PM Post
Posts: 269
Location: Washburn, WI
anglotiger said:
I'm sure that I'm not the first one here to say this, but I wouldn't be shocked if the Brewers looked to add a bat and relief pitching rather than a starter.

The addition of Moustakas and Schoop last season tells me that they feel that there are holes in the lineup and/or on the bench and, after their strong showing
in the playoffs, I suspect that both Woodruff and Burnes will get a shot at the rotation in ST.

Chacin
Burnes (already stated by Steans/Counsell)
Woodruff
Nelson (assuming he's ready)
Anderson
Davies
Peralta
Guerra (if offered arbitration)

And that's not even taking into account:

Suter (won't be ready for ST)
Miley (FA)
Gio (FA)

That's not a bad group to choose from - especially for the long term. I wouldn't be surprised to see them make a move for a #1 (or a #2 with potential to get even better), but I can't see them picking up another mid-rotation starter. Of course, pulling arms from the bullpen (looking at Woodruff and Burnes) would necessitate getting replacements there...

Of course, I reserve the right to be completely wrong... [laughing]


This is where I am too. The lineup will have a different face in it by opening day 2019. I also wouldn’t be surprised to see Stearns be one of the front runners for Andrew Miller and showing interest in guys like David Robertson or Adam Ottavino.


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Offline  Re: What is your 2018-2019 Offseason Plan for the Brewers?
#52

Posted: November 18, 2018, 10:30 PM Post
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Posts: 480
Location: Pilgrim in an unholy land
My dream scenario would be as follows:

-Monitor the market on Donaldson. If it doesn’t materialize, offer a prove-it deal for 2019 and let him go eat (biggest concern here is this vague sense that Donaldson is a potential clubhouse chemistry issue—and I’m not even sure where that impression came from, but I kind of remember reading rumors to that effect).

-Watch as no one steps up to meet Miami’s massive ask for Realmuto, and see if they’ll bite on something like Ray, Peralta, Diplan.

-Re-sign Miley at 2-$12.

-Shop Davies and Anderson to harvest lottery ticket(s), bullpen help, and/or salary relief.

-Roll a ball at Woodruff, Guerra, and Nelson, saying “we’re gonna have tryouts.” Winner gets a rotation spot to start the year, and the other two become multi-inning relief aces/starters #6 and 7.

Lineup:
Cain-CF
Yelich-LF
Realmuto-C
Donaldson-3B
Shaw-2B
Aguilar-1B
Braun-RF
Arcia-SS

Bench:
Piña-C
Thames-1B
Santana-Corner OF
Perez-UTIL (ugh, we can’t get rid of him)

Starters:
Chacin
Burnes
Woodruff
Miley
Davies (let’s assume Anderson is traded for salary relief)

Bullpen:
Jeffress
Knebel
Hader
Jennings
Nelson
Guerra
Williams
Albers

Notes: Houser is the first man up from AAA in pitching help as needed. Schoop is not offered a contract in arbitration (hurts because of the prospects we gave up for him, but this team needs the salary relief). I’m hoping Albers rediscovers himself, but is relegated to mop-up work in this scenario, and best case they cut bait and find a replacement (see Hauser) to save another $1million. Braun becomes the 7th-best hitter on the team (probably 8th on days Woodruff starts). Attanasio must approve a healthy increase in salary to make it work, with Opening Day costing $123 million and change, but I’m obviously hoping he is willing to do so after last year’s ahead-of-schedule contention. Like I said at the outset, this is a dream. H/T to JosephC for salary help, with estimates for Donaldson (1-$20 mil) coming from MLB TradeRumors.

Final result: win the division again, defeat Chicago in the divisional round, while the Dodgers beat the Phillies (with Harper and Machado coming up small for Philadelphia) in the other divisional round matchup. We get revenge by beating LA in 6 for a well-deserved pennant. Sadly, we fall to the Yankees in 7 because for some reason we can’t have nice things.

What is best in life? To crush the Cardinals, Cubs, and Manny Machado, see them driven before you, and hear the lamentation of their fanboys.


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Offline  Re: What is your 2018-2019 Offseason Plan for the Brewers?
#53

Posted: November 19, 2018, 2:04 PM Post
Posts: 21
Location: Wauwatosa, WI
Disclaimer: this gets pretty long lol. I actually did the BCB one and copied this over, while actually shortening it slightly [laughing]

Arbitration-eligible (with projected salaries from MLBTR):
Jonathan Schoop - $10.1 mil Non-Tender
Travis Shaw - $5.1 mil Tender
Corey Knebel - $4.9 mil Tender
Jimmy Nelson - $3.7 mil Tender
Stephen Vogt - $3.065 mil Non-Tender (I'd love for him to stay in the organization in some capacity though!)
Hernan Perez - $2.7 mil Tender
Junior Guerra -$2.7 mil Tender
Zach Davies - $2.4 mil Tender
Domingo Santana - $2.4 mil Tender
Manny Pina - $1.8 mil Tender
Erik Kratz - $1.7 mil Non-Tender
Dan Jennings - $1.6 mil Non-Tender
Xavier Cedeno - $1.5 mil Non-Tender
Tyler Saladino - $1 mil Non-Tender (I'd love to look at a minor league deal with a camp invite if he doesn't get other MLB looks)
Explain the toughest calls if necessary: I have this weird idea that Tyler Saladino is actually pretty good, so that was kind of a tough call. But, in the end I think his contributions are replaceable and upgrade-able, so I figure we clear a spot and figure it out from there.

(109,795,000-10,100,000-1,700,000-1,500,000-1,500,000-1,000,000= $93,995,000 total so far)

Contract options (pick up or buy out)
Joakim Soria: $10 mil mutual option ($1 mil buyout) Buy out
Mike Moustakas: $15 mil mutual option ($1 mil buyout) Buy out
Jordan Lyles: $3.5 mil team option ($250K buyout) Would have picked up myself, but buy out
Jeremy Jeffress: $3.175 mil team option (if declined, he opts into arbitration) Pick up
Impending Free Agents
Wade Miley: Let go
Gio Gonzalez: Let go
Curtis Granderson: Let Go
All three were great additions last year, but I bid them farewell
Free agents
#1: Daniel Descalso (1 year, $6 mil) I love the idea of Descalso for one year. Able to play second most games until Keston is ready, and can help around the field after that. As a lefty bat he hit lefties and righties well last year, and has apparently bought into the launch angle movement to resurrect his career.

#2: Yusei Kikuchi (6 years, $42 mil which is $50 million total including the posting fee) Kikuchi has solid offerings across the board, and a lefty starter would be ideal in our rotation. There are very legitimate concerns with the arm injuries he has incurred in his career in Japan. However, a system like ours can do a great job of keeping him from being overworked.

#3: Michael Brantley (3 years, $45 million) I’m fully on board with picking up Brantley and his fantastic bat for the top of our order to go along with Cain and Yelich. The kicker will have to be him being able to play some first, or playing Braun there more often. Either way I would be ok with it (remember that Brantley was drafted as a 1B by us). Also, this doesn’t actually mean anything but getting both Cain and Brantley back after the CC and Greinke deals would be a nice little bonus.

#4: David Robertson (2 years, $16 million) Robertson would fit in greatly with our pen (he throws the 1-2 cutter/curveball combo the Brewers love!) I’d add him to our pen and still be running without a true "closer", having CC manage the game as we go and use his best pitchers in the toughest situations regardless of inning. As the Brittons, Ottavinos, Kimbrels, etc. fly off the board, we sign Robertson to a great deal.
($93,995,000+6,000,000+8,000,000+8,000,000+$15,000,000=$130,995,000)

Trades
#1: Trade Yeison Coca to Toronto for Luke Maile
The Jays still have Russell Martin, Danny Jansen and Reese McGuire at catcher so they would likely be interested in getting something in return for Maile whom they claimed off waivers around a year ago. Coca is a lottery ticket guy who came over as the PTBNL in the infamous Travis Shaw/Mauricio Dubon for Tyler Thornburg trade, and maybe turns into something solid for them. For us, Maile showed pretty solid OBP skills this year with a .248/.333/.366 slash and a 34.3% hard hit percentage on Fangraphs and 43% on Statcast from the right side. Not to mention being a top 10 (maybe 5) receiving catcher in baseball. I’d feel pretty comfortable with he and Pina coming in at catcher going into next season, with Nottingham hopefully getting a solid, healthy start to the season in San Antonio.

(+$550,000)

#2: Trade Eric Thames to the Yankees for Rony Garcia and Miguel Yajure

This is meant to be very similar to the Adam Lind deal. Thames would be a great fit for Yankee Stadium as a bench bat or at first. For the Brewers we are acquiring two guys that are essentially lottery tickets in order to clear some cap space. Garcia sits around 93 and touches 96 with two average secondary offerings in his curveball and changeup. Yajure sits at 92 mph, has a changeup that is his best secondary pitch right now and is still working on a breaking ball. Two guys that I’d love to add to our current system.

(-$6,000,000)

#3: Trade Keon Broxton and Nathan Kirby to Seattle for James Pazos
For the Mariners, they are a team that could benefit from giving Keon a full time chance again in center. Kirby needs to be protected from the Rule 5 and I think including him in a trade to a team that will likely have plenty of 40 man room would be smart for both teams. Kirby is not done as a prospect, but I’m not sure the Crew can have the patience with him on their 40 that a team like the Mariners could. Pazos along with Robertson, really shores up the pen and for cheap in Pazos’ case. Under team control for 2019 before arbitration in 2020 this deal would give the Crew another lefty in the pen, after letting Jennings and Cedeno go, with a fastball in the mid-90’s and a solid slider he would be a really nice addition to the team.

#4: Trade Chase Anderson to Tampa Bay for Curtis Taylor and Taylor Walls
For the Rays they acquire a solid starting pitcher with a very reasonable contract for the team. They can possibly cover up his first inning issues (especially if it’s a mental block which it very well could’ve been) by using the opener on the day of his "start". Despite the contract being pretty team friendly, the Brewers clear $6 mil and a roster spot with this move. Curtis Taylor is a mainly two pitch guy who has touched 98 at times, with a good slider and projects to be a reliever, though his working on a changeup is to try to stay a starter moving forward. Walls is a 22 year old middle infielder who showed good bat to ball, and on base skills in 2018 at High A (12.2 BB%, 14.8 K%) and also a nice 22.7% line drive rate.
(-$6,000,000)

($130,995,000+550,000-6,000,000-6,000,000=$119,545,000)

Rotation: 5 (not really in order)
Kikuchi
Chacin
Burnes
Woodruff
Davies/Nelson (Spring training will give us a good idea if it is at least possible for Jimmy to return to form, or something near it. If not, he doesn’t make the roster. If so, Davies is in the pen most likely, or we use the last(?) option on him, he will be needed to make starts at some point)

Bullpen(8):
Guerra
Robertson
Pazos
Jeffress
Hader
Knebel
Albers
Houser
I honestly think Albers can bounce back. Before the injury issues he was having a fantastic start to the season. Just never got back on track after that. I would keep Houser because he is out of options and I still love his profile.

Shuttle guys!
Barnes, Williams, Peralta, Jake Thompson (possibly), and Davies (If Nelson is healthy and makes the roster)

Lineup (positional only): (12)
C: Pina, Maile
1B: Aguilar, Brantley/Braun
2B: Descalso
3B: Shaw
SS: Arcia
LF: Braun/Brantley
CF: Cain
RF: Yelich/Santana
UTIL: Perez

Wrap-Up:
I didn’t make any really big deals with trades. Instead I tried to improve the backup catcher spot and the bullpen, and then leverage a few of our contracts into deals for lottery tickets and use the money in free agency instead. I feel good about keeping Domingo, as Brantley and Braun are still injury risks, and he showed that he can really hit off the bench which is a skill not a ton of players have. I think I'm still set up pretty well for Hiura and/or Dubon's debut(s) and I still have Ray and most other prospects for a bigger deadline move if and when they're available.


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Offline  Re: What is your 2018-2019 Offseason Plan for the Brewers?
#54

Posted: November 19, 2018, 6:22 PM Post
Posts: 3949
Based on some off-season events, I am revising my plan:

ARBITRATION
Jimmy Nelson - TENDER
Zach Davies - TENDER
Stephen Vogt - NON-TENDER (minor-league deal with NRI)
Hernan Perez - TENDER (sign to five-year, $20 million extension)
Corey Knebel - TENDER (sign to five-year, $30 million extension)
Travis Shaw - TENDER (sign to six-year, $36 million extension)
Domingo Santana - TENDER
Jonathan Schoop - TENDER
Dan Jennings - NON-TENDER
Xavier Cedeno - TENDER
Erik Kratz - NON-TENDER
Tyler Saladino - NON-TENDER

FREE AGENCY OPTIONS
Mike Moustakas - (Declined his side of option, allowed to walk)
Joakim Soria - Decline
Jeremy Jeffress - Exercise
Jordan Lyles - Decline
Wade Miley - Re-sign to 4-year, $40 million deal
Gio Gonzales - Walk
Curtis Granderson - Walk

RELEASE
Matt Albers

Total spots taken on 40-man: 31

RULE 5 PROTECTION
OF Troy Stokes Jr., IF Jake Hager, RHPs Cody Ponce, Jon Olczak, Bubba Derby, Trey Supak, and Conor Harber to 40-man.

Total spots taken on 40-man: 38

RULE 5 DRAFT
Select C Patrick Mazieka from Mets

Total spots taken on 40-man: 39

TRADES
Minnesota Twins
Twins get:
2B/SS Jonathan Schoop
1B/OF/DH Eric Thames

Brewers get:
UT Willians Astudillo - to 40-man
RHP Bailey Ober
LHP Erik Cha

Detroit Tigers
Tigers get:
RHP Chase Anderson
OF Keon Broxton
RHP Aaron Wilkerson

Brewers get:
IF Kody Clemens
LHP Trent Szkutnik

Total spots taken on 40-man: 36

FREE AGENTS
LHP Tony Sipp (2 years/$10 million)
LHP Andrew Miller (3 years/$24 million)
LHP Yusei Kikuchi (5 years/$50 million - plus $10 million posting fee)

40-man Roster addition
IF Keston Hiura

Final 25-man roster:
cf: Cain
2b: Hiura
rf: Yelich
1b: Aguilar
3b: Shaw
lf: Braun
c: Pina
ss: Arcia
bench: Mazieka, Perez, Astudillo, Santana
rotation: Chacin, Miley, Burnes, Woodruff, Kikuchi
bullpen: Knebel, Sipp, Hader, Jeffress, Miller, Cedeno, Peralta, Guerra

Other notes: Jimmy Nelson, Zach Davies, Jake Hager, Tyrone Taylor, Troy Stokes among those optioned to minors.

The big changes: After Hiura's AFL performance, there is NO justification for signing Cabrera or keeping Moustakas - it's time to let the Keston Hiura era begin at second base. I instead add Miller to Sipp in bolstering the bullpen, and get Kikuchi to bolster the rotation. Peralta ends up in the pen after the September/October shutdown.


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Offline  Re: What is your 2018-2019 Offseason Plan for the Brewers?
#55

Posted: November 25, 2018, 2:37 PM Post
Posts: 2613
I think the best improvements the Brewers can make offensively are to reduce the number of all-or-nothing type hitters on the roster -- high K, low-ish OBP (or just plain don't hit much) types. I'm not sure how we get there without just letting guys go (which is possible) because their value to other teams would also seem to be limited, but the list of guys like that currently on our roster are:

Hernan Perez (positionally versatile but his clutch hitting is generally lousy & he swings at pretty much everything)
Keon Broxton (defensive is way good; bat this year was way bad)
Jonathan Schoop (not worth keeping unless there are no better possible plans; risk/reward factor seems precariously high on this one)
Orlando Arcia (if his Sept./Oct. performance can become a new norm & if he can swing at fewer crappy sliders, he could be a keeper for the next decade)
Eric Thames (about 40% k-rate, drives in relatively few runs besides himself for a power-hitting/run-producing type of player (in other words, a very concerning RBIs/HR ratio)
Tyler Saladino (2018's version of Sogard v.2017 -- great opening stretch & nothing but decline afterward with precious little anything good (esp. post-DL); early crazy stats made it take a while for folks to realize he wasn't good for much)
Eric Kratz (nothing special offensively for a backup C; needs to walk more to be worth considering keeping around for 2019; intangible factors are high)

To me, the only guy on there truly worth keeping regardless is Arcia. Kratz (backup C) & Broxton (5th OF) are maybes for me at best. Thames is solid enough defensively, but if he's not on a hot streak, he's a black hole in the lineup and we need to get away from that tendency. Perez is a better alternative than Saladino but I'd vote for finding a better backup utility IF option than either of them....

OR, looking at it from a different angle...

Since the Brewers seem to like keeping 13 pitchers on the roster, and if both no-remaining-options OF Santana & Broxton aren't sent elsewhere (or non-tendered in Broxton's case), you'll either have...

- 2 backup IFs (Thames & a Perez-type) & Santana, plus a backup C --> this means no Broxton
- 1 backup IF (Perez-type) & both Santana & Broxton, plus a backup C --> could mean Moose or Schoop is here (or not), but for sure means no Thames, w/ Shaw also as backup 1B
- ONLY 12 pitchers, and then 2 OF reserves & 2 IF reserves plus a backup C.

I'd guess the 1st option is the most likely, although the 3rd option might be the case until May or until they need a 5th starter regularly.

I think one roster consideration is having an IF, OF, or one of each who has an option remaining to allow for the sort of AAA player shuffling Stearns did a lot last year. While that might seem obvious, that's pertinent to my 3 scenarios above because keeping all of Thames, Perez, Santana, & Broxton means the Brewers DON'T have any position players with options left (unless Arcia does, and you normally wouldn't yo-yo your starting SS like that, making him have to stay down at least 10 days every time a pitcher is shuffled). I can't see Stearns putting the Brewers into that situation.


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Offline  Re: What is your 2018-2019 Offseason Plan for the Brewers?
#56

Posted: November 26, 2018, 12:25 AM Post
Posts: 2613
clancyphile said:
TRADES
Minnesota Twins
Twins get:
2B/SS Jonathan Schoop
1B/OF/DH Eric Thames

Brewers get:
UT Willians Astudillo - to 40-man
RHP Bailey Ober
LHP Erik Cha

Detroit Tigers
Tigers get:
RHP Chase Anderson
OF Keon Broxton
RHP Aaron Wilkerson

Brewers get:
IF Kody Clemens
LHP Trent Szkutnik

I haven't looked at all into the prospects in these deals Clancy proposed, but I like the spirit of them: getting something with some future value, even if it's lottery tickets, in return for reducing eventual 25-man logjams at a couple positions.

To me, Anderson & Broxton are the two guys with the most potential value to the Brewers. Trading Schoop rather than tendering/keeping him has a chance of Gennett-style backfiring, but as long as a remotely decent replacement is found, I think I'd pull that trigger.

... The Brewers aren't lacking in team-controlled depth, and there's just not room for all of them on next year's 25-man. Whether it's these guys clancyphile set forth or others, my hunch is that overall there will still be an interesting quantity of Brewers transactions this winter involving guys with respectable MLB service time.


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Offline  Re: What is your 2018-2019 Offseason Plan for the Brewers?
#57

Posted: November 30, 2018, 6:30 PM Post
User avatar
Posts: 5153
Location: Phoenix, AZ
Take this for what it is worth but here we go:

Spoke with a friend who works for the Dbacks. Asked him a few things on the baseball off season. He said the Dbacks are aggressively trying to trade Greinke and haven't found any takers a few things here and there that fell apart but nothing serious. Says Milwaukee didn't come up when discussing Greinke. Goldschmidt talks are in the early stages right now Dbacks could extend Goldschmidt or wait until the trade deadline to trade him. He was very general on that but he believes Goldschmidt won't be traded.

Also asked him about Patrick Corbin and he believes he will get a 5-7 year deal at about $20m a season. The holdup right now are the Indians, Mets, and the Giants. Though he doesn't believe the Mets will trade either Degrom or Syndergaard if the Cano and Diaz trade goes through.

Before the news broke he said the Brewers were desperately trying to find a trade partner to trade Schoop. This started around September everyone in the league didn't believe the Brewers would extend an offer to Schoop.

Asked him if there were any potential trades he thought could happen and he believes the Brewers and the Giants are a good fit for a trade. But he doesn't see the Brewers and the Marlins being a good fit. He went on to state the Marlins are over valuing Realmuto and they are not going to get the value that they want from him and he will be with the Marlins until the trade deadline. He says it is the same problem with Goldschmidt though with Goldschmidt there are not that many teams looking for a 1B or a DH. Value for the 1B and DH types is extremely low.

Finally I asked him about Moustakas and he said he shouldn't have declined his option. The 3B market is just about as bad as the 1B and DH market he will be lucky to get 3-years. He predicts that Moustakas will resign with the Brewers for 1-2 years.

Again take it for what it is worth just a conversation I had with a friend who works in the front office for the Dbacks.


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Offline  Re: What is your 2018-2019 Offseason Plan for the Brewers?
#58

Posted: November 30, 2018, 6:45 PM Post
Posts: 1368
Great stuff Nate!!!

Keep talking to that guy [smile]


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Offline  Re: What is your 2018-2019 Offseason Plan for the Brewers?
#59

Posted: November 30, 2018, 11:15 PM Post
Posts: 2613
Fun stuff, Nate. Thanks for sharing it.

I'm wondering who exactly he feels the Brewers & Giants would match up on (Bumgarner? I doubt the Giants would consider moving Posey, not sure about Will Smith) ... unless, that is, he meant that both were a good fit for a trade with AZ. The way you said it, though, sounds more like your friend sensed a Brewers/Giants trade could line up.

On a side note, it's a little funny to see some folks still predicting a week-plus ago that the Brewers would non-tender Vogt . . . . nearly 3 weeks after he was outrighted to AAA (on Nov. 1st), refused the assignment, and became a free agent.


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Offline  Re: What is your 2018-2019 Offseason Plan for the Brewers?
#60

Posted: December 01, 2018, 12:34 AM Post
User avatar
Posts: 5153
Location: Phoenix, AZ
MNBrew said:
Fun stuff, Nate. Thanks for sharing it.

I'm wondering who exactly he feels the Brewers & Giants would match up on (Bumgarner? I doubt the Giants would consider moving Posey, not sure about Will Smith) ... unless, that is, he meant that both were a good fit for a trade with AZ. The way you said it, though, sounds more like your friend sensed a Brewers/Giants trade could line up.


Definitely not Posey. A lot of the front offices around baseball think the Brewers need a starting pitcher. Not sure if this is something that Stearns is looking for or if this is just other front offices opinion on the Brewers roster.

When I talked to my friend he felt as though the Brewers weakness is their starting pitching even though they have good young pitching he is skeptical that it will work. The Brewers being linked to all of these starting pitchers is not just smoke being blown by beat writers and others. He didn't say who in the Brewers system as he is not familiar with the Brewers minor league system. He said something similar to what the Yankees gave up for Paxton is what he would call the going rate.

Again these are all his opinion and not any insider information.


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