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Seattle Mariners

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Offline  Re: Seattle Mariners
#21

Posted: November 07, 2018, 9:33 AM Post
Posts: 3080
Mudville9 said:
Would they be interested in the Davis, Andersons, Santantas, Broxtons and Thames of the world? If we could give them someone from that group to lower the price, I would be all for it.


When teams go to tear it down mode they want prospects in return.


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Offline  Re: Seattle Mariners
#22

Posted: November 07, 2018, 10:33 AM Post
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Boomer5 said:
Mudville9 said:
Would they be interested in the Davis, Andersons, Santantas, Broxtons and Thames of the world? If we could give them someone from that group to lower the price, I would be all for it.


When teams go to tear it down mode they want prospects in return.


They also want to salary dump and the Brewers have room to take on money.


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Offline  Re: Seattle Mariners
#23

Posted: November 07, 2018, 10:51 AM Post
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JohnBriggs12 said:
long ball said:
I know this really isn't the point of the post, but I find it ridiculous that they'd be willing to tear it down.

I know that the AL was extremely competitive in 2018, but that is more of an exception than the rule. The Twins won the WC2 in 2017 with only 85 wins.

In 2015 the NL WC2 took 97 wins, but in 2016 it only took 87 wins.

Teams should be more willing to play the middle and instead of just selling they should attempt to make improvements on the margins.

Once you get into the playoffs anything can happen.


Well the Mariners 2018 season kind of mirrors the Brewers of 2014. Not unlike the 2014 Brewers, they have a lot of guys in mid career getting expensive and tough intra-division competition. Brewers waited until a horrid start to 2015 to start looking to sell. Mariners have a ton of money committed to very few players. Brewers at least had guys who were on back ends of team friendly deals to trade. Not so with the Mariners.



I was actually thinking there were a lot of similarities to the 2014 Brewers, as you pointed out.

If the Brewers had actively sold going into the 2014 season I would have been upset.


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Offline  Re: Seattle Mariners
#24

Posted: November 07, 2018, 5:05 PM Post
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Brew4U said:
Get Segura and Paxton from them and call it a day.

Then the next day, go get Realmuto.


Cain- CF
Segura- 2B
Yelich- RF
Realmuto- C
Shaw- 3B
Braun- LF
Aguilar- 1B
Arcia- SS

Whoooooaaaaa Nelly!

Make it happen Stearns! I would assume Keston would be part of the Realmuto trade? Segura does have a no trade clause, so I'm not sure if he would want to return to Milwaukee or not. He would also be moved to 2nd base which may not sit well with him either. Still fun to think about.


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Offline  Re: Seattle Mariners
#25

Posted: November 07, 2018, 8:47 PM Post
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Zunino reportedly heading to Tampa for Mallex Smith.

https://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2018/11/ ... smith.html


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Offline  Re: Seattle Mariners
#26

Posted: November 08, 2018, 11:06 AM Post
Posts: 93
Paxton & Segura
For
Aggy, Peralta, Lutz, Dubon

Cain - CF
Segura - 2B
Yelich - LF
Braun - 1B
Shaw - 3B
Santana - RF
Pina/Nottingham - C
Arcia - SS

Paxton
Chacin
Burnes
Nelson
Davies/Woodruff/FA


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Offline  Re: Seattle Mariners
#27

Posted: November 08, 2018, 12:14 PM Post
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And people say Peralta isn't being thrown into every trade. [laughing]


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Online  Re: Seattle Mariners
#28

Posted: November 08, 2018, 1:04 PM Post
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True Blue Brew Crew said:
And people say Peralta isn't being thrown into every trade. [laughing]


Gotta give up value to get it back. Peralta has a lot of value.


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Offline  Re: Seattle Mariners
#29

Posted: November 08, 2018, 5:14 PM Post
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cvollbrecht said:
Paxton & Segura
For
Aggy, Peralta, Lutz, Dubon

Cain - CF
Segura - 2B
Yelich - LF
Braun - 1B
Shaw - 3B
Santana - RF
Pina/Nottingham - C
Arcia - SS

Paxton
Chacin
Burnes
Nelson
Davies/Woodruff/FA


Wouldn't even get you Paxton.

Cards' fans wear jorts.


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Online  Re: Seattle Mariners
#30

Posted: November 10, 2018, 10:13 PM Post
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The more I think about this, I think dealing with the Mariners to acquire James Paxton might be the perfect off-season move for the Brewers. Obviously acquiring a lefty starter to anchor the rotation for the next two years would be great. I also think the Mariners are in a spot where they will value major league talent with several years of control left. I don’t know exactly what combination of players would interest them, but I think Dipoto could be enticed by players such as Mauricio Dubon, Jesús Aguilar, Brandon Woodruff, former Mariners prospect Freddy Peralta, and even possibly a player like Domingo Santana. A lot of rebuilding teams are looking deeper into the farm system, but I think the Mariners will try to flip guys on their current roster for major leaguers with longer team control. To be clear, I also think the Brewers would have to give up prospects as well, but I think it would take a combination of 1 or 2 MLB ready players with 1 or 2 prospects to get Paxton.


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Offline  Re: Seattle Mariners
#31

Posted: November 12, 2018, 9:32 AM Post
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Some Mariners fans I know have a Corbin Burnes obsession - so much so, that they’re hoping the Brewers get Paxton.

I’m just not a fan of dealing Burnes for pitching - I like what I’ve seen enough to bet on him in the rotation.


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Offline  Re: Seattle Mariners
#32

Posted: November 12, 2018, 9:40 AM Post
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From MLBtraderumors discussion of potential landing spots for Paxton:

Milwaukee Brewers

Like the A’s, the Brewers went a long way last season with a rotation that didn’t look great on paper. Journeyman Wade Miley was one of the unit’s key contributors, but he’s now a free agent. Holdovers Jhoulys Chacin and Chase Anderson were the Brewers’ only other regular starters who managed sub-4.00 ERAs, though their peripherals weren’t as encouraging. And Brent Suter, who threw the fourth-most innings among the team’s starters in 2018, will sit out most or all of next season after undergoing TJ surgery in the summer. Along with Chacin and Anderson, the Brewers have a cavalcade of other options for their 2019 rotation (Jimmy Nelson, Freddy Peralta, Junior Guerra, Zach Davies, Brandon Woodruff and Corbin Burnes), but it would be quite optimistic to expect Paxton-type production out of any of them. Perhaps the Brewers will be in on Paxton, then, but adding him may cost them some of their pitching depth. Any of Peralta, Woodruff or Burnes could draw Seattle’s interest. Per BA, Burnes (No. 56) is one of the Brewers’ two top-100 prospects, along with second baseman Keston Hiura (No. 33).


I'm not a big fan of trading away talented prospects, but it's interesting to think about. Peralta seems to be #3 of the Burnes, Woodruff, Peralta trio, so he's about as expendable as a talented, young starting pitcher could be. Ray is a very solid prospect, but we have out outfield shored up for years. Thames wouldn't be a target for Seattle, but we don't have a lot of extra salary room, so his $6M would help offset the $9M we'd be picking up.

So, would a deal of Peralta, Thames, Ray for Paxton make sense? The Rays would get an MLB-Ready starting pitching prospect, a LH power bat to fill in for the loss of Cruz at DH, and an exciting "five tool" OF prospect in the upper minors. Plus, they'd shave several million dollars from payroll. The Brewers would get two years of a top-of-the-rotation starter.

I hate trading away good prospects, as the Brewers will need a lot of pre-arby guys if they want to be good for more than a short "window," but Peralta may be relegated to bullpen duty if he is truly behind Burnes and Woodruff, which would diminish his value. Thames is expendable with the emergence of Aguilar. The one I think could hurt the worst would be Ray, who could be a very good MLB player.


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Offline  Re: Seattle Mariners
#33

Posted: November 12, 2018, 10:00 AM Post
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Location: New Berlin, WI
If the Mariners would make that move, I'd do that for sure. It probably makes us "out" on any Realmuto situation, but having an arm like Paxton lead our rotation would add way more value than Realmuto in my opinion. That said, I feel like Mariners will want and be able to get a bit more than that offer.


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Offline  Re: Seattle Mariners
#34

Posted: November 12, 2018, 10:02 AM Post
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Location: New Berlin, WI
splitterpfj said:
Some Mariners fans I know have a Corbin Burnes obsession - so much so, that they’re hoping the Brewers get Paxton.

I’m just not a fan of dealing Burnes for pitching - I like what I’ve seen enough to bet on him in the rotation.


Couldn't agree more. He's the most untouchable prospect(or just graduated) that we have in my opinion, I think he's more valuable than Hiura personally...though I'm probably in the minority there.


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Offline  Re: Seattle Mariners
#35

Posted: November 12, 2018, 10:04 AM Post
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Ray isn’t a 5 tool prospect because he can’t hit and his defense is meh. Power and Speed for sure. 5 tool no.

Aguilar and Thames aren’t meaningful trade chips when you are talking elite deals. The best Jesus is a 1-2 war reliever with a few years of control. Thames has negative value at this point.


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Offline  Re: Seattle Mariners
#36

Posted: November 12, 2018, 10:05 AM Post
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If we think Peralta can sustain his success we should be keeping him.


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Offline  Re: Seattle Mariners
#37

Posted: November 12, 2018, 10:25 AM Post
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Paxton's going to make about $22 million over the next two seasons and if healthy-ish, should produce in the neighborhood of 8 WAR (which might be generous). Roughly speaking, if WAR is about $9 million, that's $50 million in excess value. Just using Fangraphs' new prospect valuation model, I would have a straight up Burnes (60 OFP) for Paxton trade as an overpay on the Brewers' side.

I have Ray as a 55 OFP guy, which would be a slight underpay in a straight up deal. Lutz and Erceg would be about in the same boat. So maybe Ray plus Devin Williams or something. If you think Ray is 50 OFP instead...

A 50 OFP pitcher and a 50 OFP position player equal just about Paxton's excess value, which could mean something in the neighborhood of Adrian Houser and Troy Stokes. Or Houser and Ray. I think Zack Brown and Ray would be an overpay.

And there's too much injury risk with Paxton to overpay for him. The Brewers don't need him that badly.


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Online  Re: Seattle Mariners
#38

Posted: November 12, 2018, 10:42 AM Post
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Along those same lines, I predict when Paxton is ultimately traded this offseason the national reaction is going to be surprise that the Mariners didn't get more in return. I don't think they are going to get a top 30 prospect in baseball for him, I think it will be a few solid pieces that may even include a player or two that are already in MLB. I think a player such as J.T. Realmuto for instance is going to fetch a significantly larger return for two years of control.


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Offline  Re: Seattle Mariners
#39

Posted: November 12, 2018, 11:02 AM Post
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Location: New Berlin, WI
See I tend to disagree, I view Paxton as the more valuable player of the two. Clearly you have some solid, measureable support for your argument, I'm not going to try to dispute that. It's honestly kind of shocking how differently we view the return on this guy. I feel like I tend to be fairly objective, but if anything run on the side favorable to the Brewers. In this case though, I'm way way on the other end of the spectrum from both of you. Hopefully there are some moves and this ends up being a fun winter.


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Offline  Re: Seattle Mariners
#40

Posted: November 12, 2018, 11:07 AM Post
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Punting on Paxton for a second, I wonder if they'd do a Woodruff/Houser/Diplan for Segura/Colome deal. Assuming Segura would approve the deal.


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