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Seattle Mariners

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Online  Re: Seattle Mariners
#41

Posted: November 12, 2018, 11:13 AM Post
Posts: 3560
There really isn't anyone available from the Mariners that would compel me to trade away Burnes or Woodruff. That's all well and good that the Mariners are having a dumpster fire garage sale, but I like the bright future of our prospects more.

The David Stearns era: Controllable Young Talent. Watch the Jedi work his magic!


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Offline  Re: Seattle Mariners
#42

Posted: November 12, 2018, 11:14 AM Post
Posts: 671
And That said:
Punting on Paxton for a second, I wonder if they'd do a Woodruff/Houser/Diplan for Segura/Colome deal. Assuming Segura would approve the deal.


Sign me up for this one.


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Offline  Re: Seattle Mariners
#43

Posted: November 12, 2018, 12:20 PM Post
Posts: 455
monty57 said:
Peralta seems to be #3 of the Burnes, Woodruff, Peralta trio, so he's about as expendable as a talented, young starting pitcher could be.


Cringe. Why would the 22 year old with the best numbers be #3 of the trio and the most expendable?


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Offline  Re: Seattle Mariners
#44

Posted: November 12, 2018, 1:01 PM Post
Posts: 3058
Paxton is one of the most sought after pitchers in baseball. A 30 year old lefty with two years of control? 1.09 Whip, 11.7 K/9. We just saw what guys like Happ and even Gio went for and that was 1-2 months and they aren’t anywhere near Paxton to say the very least.

No we won’t get him for Ray and/or a bunch of B/C prospects.


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Offline  Re: Seattle Mariners
#45

Posted: November 13, 2018, 11:59 AM Post
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True Blue Brew Crew said:
monty57 said:
Peralta seems to be #3 of the Burnes, Woodruff, Peralta trio, so he's about as expendable as a talented, young starting pitcher could be.


Cringe. Why would the 22 year old with the best numbers be #3 of the trio and the most expendable?


By "as expendable as a talented, young starting pitcher could be," I mean that talented, young starting pitchers are not expendable. It should take a huge return for the Brewers to ever think of trading away a talented, young starting pitcher. Right now, for maybe the first time in team history, the Brewers have multiple talented, young starting pitchers who have shown some degree of success at the MLB level, so while I don't want to trade any of them, Peralta is probably "as expendable as a talented young starting pitcher could be."

As I mentioned in the post, I don't like trading prospects for short-term players. We'd have Paxton for two-years, while giving up 12 years of Peralta and Ray, plus whatever Thames has left. That could help put us over the top for the short-term, while potentially seriously hurting us in the long term if Ray and Peralta pan out. I think the Brewers should hold on to their good prospects, and would be happier with a quiet offseason than one in which we trade away a lot of future talent for a better chance to win in 2019.

I just saw the article and posted it for discussion. We traded away young talent this year to try to improve mid-season, and the decision is there as to whether we should trade more of our future to help out in 2019. I'm not a fan of that, but right now Peralta is less likely than Burnes and probably Woodruff to be in the starting rotation on opening day 2019. I'd personally start him in AAA as one of the first call-ups when a starter is needed, but I have a bad feeling that the Brewers will feel the need to keep him in the bullpen in a "right handed Hader" role, burning his service time to help win in 2019. If he spends a year or two in the pen, thereby having 1-2 less years of service time, he will have less value two years from now then he does now, so if that is the plan, I would entertain the option of trading him. Conversely, if they think he will become a solid starting pitcher that will have a spot in the Brewer rotation for the next half-decade, they should not consider trading him for a short-term upgrade.

"The most successful (people) know that performance over the long haul is what counts. If you can seize the day, great. But never forget that there are days yet to come."

~Bill Walsh


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Offline  Re: Seattle Mariners
#46

Posted: November 13, 2018, 5:39 PM Post
Posts: 455
monty57 said:
True Blue Brew Crew said:
monty57 said:
Peralta seems to be #3 of the Burnes, Woodruff, Peralta trio, so he's about as expendable as a talented, young starting pitcher could be.


Cringe. Why would the 22 year old with the best numbers be #3 of the trio and the most expendable?


By "as expendable as a talented, young starting pitcher could be," I mean that talented, young starting pitchers are not expendable. It should take a huge return for the Brewers to ever think of trading away a talented, young starting pitcher. Right now, for maybe the first time in team history, the Brewers have multiple talented, young starting pitchers who have shown some degree of success at the MLB level, so while I don't want to trade any of them, Peralta is probably "as expendable as a talented young starting pitcher could be."

As I mentioned in the post, I don't like trading prospects for short-term players. We'd have Paxton for two-years, while giving up 12 years of Peralta and Ray, plus whatever Thames has left. That could help put us over the top for the short-term, while potentially seriously hurting us in the long term if Ray and Peralta pan out. I think the Brewers should hold on to their good prospects, and would be happier with a quiet offseason than one in which we trade away a lot of future talent for a better chance to win in 2019.

I just saw the article and posted it for discussion. We traded away young talent this year to try to improve mid-season, and the decision is there as to whether we should trade more of our future to help out in 2019. I'm not a fan of that, but right now Peralta is less likely than Burnes and probably Woodruff to be in the starting rotation on opening day 2019. I'd personally start him in AAA as one of the first call-ups when a starter is needed, but I have a bad feeling that the Brewers will feel the need to keep him in the bullpen in a "right handed Hader" role, burning his service time to help win in 2019. If he spends a year or two in the pen, thereby having 1-2 less years of service time, he will have less value two years from now then he does now, so if that is the plan, I would entertain the option of trading him. Conversely, if they think he will become a solid starting pitcher that will have a spot in the Brewer rotation for the next half-decade, they should not consider trading him for a short-term upgrade.


Ah, I gotcha. I agree with what you're saying so far as the Brewers might be positioned to offer up the highest value young starting pitching talent on the market. That's a strange sentence for me to type given young starting pitching is worth even more to a small market team like Milwaukee. But if Stearns deems they have enough to part with one for a large enough haul I could go along with it. Where I disagree is with Peralta being the furthest from the rotation. Since young pitching is a commodity, the Brewers should be able to part with the one who holds the least value to them and still get a great return. To me the most expendable is Woodruff. I've belabored those reasons elsewhere on this forum so I'll leave it at that.


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Offline  Re: Seattle Mariners
#47

Posted: November 13, 2018, 6:54 PM Post
Posts: 1277
Location: Madison, WI
I'd pass on Paxton and Segura. Paxton's high mark for innings is 160 1/3 and that's the only time he's been over 140 innings. The Brewers would have to dedicate all those prospects and then 9 million dollars on top of that. I'd rather just stick with what we've got rather than make a big acquisition like this for a guy that misses time every year. Segura makes 57 million over the next four years and that would be a huge commitment for a player that really under-achieved the last couple of seasons in Milwaukee.


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Offline  Re: Seattle Mariners
#48

Posted: November 13, 2018, 7:06 PM Post
Posts: 1277
Location: Madison, WI
Eye Black said:
Along those same lines, I predict when Paxton is ultimately traded this offseason the national reaction is going to be surprise that the Mariners didn't get more in return. I don't think they are going to get a top 30 prospect in baseball for him, I think it will be a few solid pieces that may even include a player or two that are already in MLB. I think a player such as J.T. Realmuto for instance is going to fetch a significantly larger return for two years of control.


I agree. His fWAR is considerably higher than his bWAR. Average annual WAR between the two comes out to about 3.3. Depth Charts and Steamer project him for 4.4 WAR in 2019, to me that seems high based on his history and innings total. I think 6.6 WAR total over the next two seasons is pretty fair. Say 9.25 million per WAR in 2019/2020 and that puts his value at 61.05 million. He's estimated to make 9 million this year and probably is around 12 million next year for a total of 21 million. So the surplus value is right around 40 million. That's pretty much the number that Sonny Gray was at when the A's traded him. IMO Brandon Woodruff + Corey Ray + Lucas Erceg could get a deal done.

But it heavily depends on the model. If you value him like Fangraphs, then the package would have to be much better. If you value him like Baseball Reference, then Woodruff + Ray + Erceg would probably be an overpay.


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Offline  Re: Seattle Mariners
#49

Posted: November 20, 2018, 4:54 PM Post
Posts: 23
Rosenthal reporting:

#Padres have discussed a trade with #Mariners in which they would acquire SS Jean Segura and RHP Mike Leake for OF Wil Myers, sources tell The Athletic. Leake would need to waive his no-trade clause for deal to occur, and also is weighing other potential options, one source says.


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Online  Re: Seattle Mariners
#50

Posted: November 20, 2018, 5:07 PM Post
Posts: 15677
Vollbc74 said:
Rosenthal reporting:

#Padres have discussed a trade with #Mariners in which they would acquire SS Jean Segura and RHP Mike Leake for OF Wil Myers, sources tell The Athletic. Leake would need to waive his no-trade clause for deal to occur, and also is weighing other potential options, one source says.



Umm. Wot?

If we can afford the salary dump that the Mariners are obviously trying to do, I would make a better offer than that.


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Online  Re: Seattle Mariners
#51

Posted: November 20, 2018, 5:18 PM Post
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Posts: 18001
There have to be prospects going to the Mariners too because the names in that deal alone make no sense.

Cards' fans wear jorts.


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Offline  Re: Seattle Mariners
#52

Posted: November 21, 2018, 10:08 AM Post
Posts: 1277
Location: Madison, WI
That Wil Myers contract is a strange one:

15 million signing bonus
2017 = 2 million
2018 = 2 million
2019 = 3 million
2020 = 20 million
2021 = 20 million
2022 = 20 million
2023 = Club option for 20 million, 1 million buyout

No doubt the Mariners are drooling over that 3 million dollar number for 2019 and then King Felix's contract ends so instead of overpaying him, then they are overpaying Myers instead.

The Cardinals are paying part of Leake's remaining contract.

All told, if this deal would go through without any more MLB contracts added in:
2019 = The Mariners save 22.25 million
2020 = The Mariners save 5.25 million
2021 = The Mariners are in the hole for 0.75 million
2022 = The Mariners are in the hole for 5.75 million
2023 = Push as Segura and Myers buyouts are equal

Another 21 million off the books. King County Council looking like bigger suckers by the minute.

Mike Leake knows that his big paydays are over. Would't be at all surprising if he'd demand the 2021 option be turned into a player option which would guarantee him an additional 13 million and could very well kill this deal.


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Offline  Re: Seattle Mariners
#53

Posted: December 02, 2018, 3:23 PM Post
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According to MLBTR:

If the trade-happy Mariners have their way, third baseman Kyle Seager will be the next veteran to depart. The club’s willing to do “whatever it takes” to deal Seager, Buster Olney of ESPN writes (subscription required). Long one of the majors’ most underrated players, the 31-year-old Seager is coming off an uncharacteristically rough season and still has a guaranteed $57MM left on his contract. Seager’s presence is no longer needed in Seattle, which is rebuilding and trying to cut payroll, though it could be difficult to deal him on the heels of such a disappointing campaign. With that in mind, Olney suggests the Mariners could either swap Seager for another team’s unwanted contract or package him with one of their best remaining assets (Mitch Haniger or Jean Segura) to get his money off the books.


Seager is owed $19.5 million in 2019, $19.5 million in 2020, $18.5 million in 2021, and has a $15 million team option for 2020. He's an excellent defender at 3B and prior to an offensive slump in 2019 has been an All Star caliber starter for the last seven years, topping 5 fWAR twice.

In terms of interesting assets, Seattle doesn't have much left other than Jean Segura (who would probably be too expensive to package on top of Seager), and Mitch Haniger (who we probably wouldn't target as yet another corner OF). They also have Marco Gonzales, however, who is a 26-year-old LHP SP that was quietly worth 3.6 fWAR last season and is under cheap team control for multiple seasons.

What about this scenario?

Seattle gets
SP Chase Anderson

Milwaukee gets
3B Kyle Seager
SP Marco Gonzales


That would add roughly $13 million to the books for 2020, but would kill two birds with one stone in terms of upgrading both 2B/3B (with Shaw moving to 2B everyday) and the starting rotation. Milwaukee could consider throwing in Thames as well if they view dumping his salary as more valuable than keeping him as a bench bat.


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Offline  Re: Seattle Mariners
#54

Posted: December 02, 2018, 3:32 PM Post
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Location: Milwaukee, WI
Might as well just sign Moustakas. Seager isn't good.


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Online  Re: Seattle Mariners
#55

Posted: December 02, 2018, 4:14 PM Post
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I’d be for finding a way to add Marco Gonzales to the rotation. Interesting thought.


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Offline  Re: Seattle Mariners
#56

Posted: December 02, 2018, 4:39 PM Post
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Brew4U said:
Might as well just sign Moustakas. Seager isn't good.


Seager is, like, twice as good as Moustakas assuming last season was a down year... Seager is extremely good.

Even at Seager's absolute worse they were basically comparable players


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Offline  Re: Seattle Mariners
#57

Posted: December 02, 2018, 4:59 PM Post
Posts: 434
Interesting proposal.

I don’t think I like Marco Gonzales enough to take on that Seager contract though.


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Offline  Re: Seattle Mariners
#58

Posted: December 02, 2018, 8:47 PM Post
Posts: 3949
long ball said:
Interesting proposal.

I don’t think I like Marco Gonzales enough to take on that Seager contract though.


How about this:

Mariners get:
OF Keon Broxton
RHP Jacob Barnes

Brewers get:
LHP James Pazos
3B Kyle Seager
SS Connor Kopach

The Brewers can then make a deal with the Mets.

Mets get:
1B Eric Thames

Brewers get:
C Patrick Mazeika
SS Andres Gimenez
2B Felix Valerio

Brewers lineup:
cf: Cain
rf: Yelich
1b: Aguilar
3b: Seager
lf: Braun
2b: Shaw
c: Pina
ss: Arcia


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Offline  Re: Seattle Mariners
#59

Posted: December 02, 2018, 10:13 PM Post
Posts: 2613
That's interesting. DiPoto's definitely open for business, as it sounds like now he's trading Segura to Philly.


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Offline  Re: Seattle Mariners
#60

Posted: December 03, 2018, 9:49 AM Post
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What do the Mariners have to do to even make the Brewers while to add Seager. He's a great defensive third baseman, bat has been trending downward for a little bit now after a monster 2016 with 2018 being a nightmare offensively no matter how you look at it.

1. They have to throw in money
2. They have to eat some of our money (Thames, Anderson, Albers) Don't think now is the time to get rid of Braun but I've been wrong and surprised before.
3. Mariners have to throw in an asset or two. Pazos was a good suggestion, Brewers were linked to Braden Bishop pre-draft,

Still overall not sure this does enough for the Brewers to make the move


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