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Madison Bumgarner

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Offline  Re: Madison Bumgarner
Posted: January 09, 2019, 11:18 AM Post
Posts: 554
Location: Milwaukee
A Swing and A Drive said:
Quetion: What makes

Corbin Burnes, Freddy Peralta and Brandon Woodruff

any different than

Jimmy Nelson, Jorge Lopez and Taylor Jungmann?


I will say that I also believe the top 3 to be better MLB prospects, however, there's a VERY good chance based of history of prospect success rates that only one of the 3 become an impactful MLB talent.

Why hesitate to trade one of them in a package for a proven MLB talent like Madison Bumgarner?

Here's where you're struggling. You believe Bum is still an elite pitcher. He's not *and* he has 1yr of control coming off his worst season and 2yrs straight of decline with a velo drop.

Dude, Burnes/Woodruff/Peralta blow away Lopez/Jungmann in both terms of being starters and pen arms. It's apples and oranges. Burnes/Woodruff pound the zone whereas Lopez/Jungmann don't because they lack control. Lopez also doesn't have a 3rd pitch of any sorts and Jungmann was getting tagged in AA at almost age level. His rookie season was a fluke based on stuff and performance around that season (before and after). Jungmann also was sitting low-90s if I recall correctly and didn't have much of a 3rd pitch either. When Burnes/Woodruff start they're using 3 pitches. Peralta mixes in his change but needs to improve his control overall then he'll have the 3 pitch mix instead of being so fastball dominant right now. All 3 of them have significantly outperformed Lopez/Jungmann every step of the way.

You don't have to be in the rotation to be an impact MLB player. Even in the pen all 3 would dominate.


Last edited by Humans Need Water on January 09, 2019, 3:16 PM, edited 1 time in total.

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Offline  Re: Madison Bumgarner
Posted: January 09, 2019, 11:27 AM Post
Posts: 12137
Joey Meyer Bombs said:
MrTPlush said:
All this "shell of his former self"...yet he would arguably be our best starter going into the year. Burnes/Peralta/etc. might be crazy talk, but Davies/Anderson or other garbage is a step crazier. He may be a rental, but he is still a really good pitcher. Our garbage and spare parts is not landing him.

Ray seems like a believable headliner with some minor pieces added on.


If you consider Davies and Anderson garbage, you're going to have a lot of dumpster divers.

Why is it that every time the Brewers deem a player as available, there are fans who deem them not worth anything? Davies had a rough injury-plagued year last year, but was great in 2017, is entering his age 26 year and is cost controlled for several more seasons. Anderson, despite his propensity to give up long balls last year, was actually still a very effective, durable starter last year. I mean, look at his numbers! Even in a down year, pretty much any team would take those stats from a mid-rotation guy. And he was better than that in 2017. It's frustrating to see people look right past stats, results and proof.


We are talking about Madison Bumgarner. A guy who is probably still a #1 starter despite decline and would likely be given a QO giving us a pretty high draft pick for him leaving. Davies and Anderson are limited ceiling guys that provide little to nothing for a rebuilding team. They would rather take a 1/100 chance on a prospect than waste space in a trade for a mid-rotation starter who will be gone before they return to relevance.

Davies/Anderson have value in the right trade...I have said that many times in the past. However, the Giants aren't making either a centerpiece for Bumgarner.


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Offline  Re: Madison Bumgarner
Posted: January 09, 2019, 11:31 AM Post
Posts: 4804
Location: Madison, WI
FVBrewerFan said:
tmwiese55 said:
For example, if they didn't see the value in SPs I don't think we'd constantly hear them tied to the top SPs on the market the last couple years. Think of it this way, if you know you're going to use Bum like our other guys then there really isn't a value in acquiring him for the cost of prospects and paying that money. Same with Darvish, Arrieta, and all the other guys they've been linked to. Hope that makes sense, not sure if I laid it out well. Basically, if you're not going to use a SP in the traditional-ish way then you'd be stupid to pay the money for one.


Right, and notice they didn't sign/ complete a trade for any of them. Instead, he went out and got two impact bats last year. My guess is MadBum will be no different. Stearns probably does put a lower value on these guys than other GMs.

That said, the reason Stearns is still interested in some of these guys is that they WOULD be an improvement even if they only go 5 innings. Also, some of that may be GM gamesmanship, and some of the rumors probably weren't true to start with.


Right, they didn't pull the trigger but just being involved means they likely see the value in having a guy who can often go deeper and give everyone a rest. If you were only going to pitch Darvish 5 innings why would even consider paying him 15+ mil for 3+ years to even be in the discussion. I think we actually punted two games last year by having guys like Wilkerson start and just taking poundings (those 15+ run games where some hitters had to P). Being they know they'll be more trigger happy yanking early though might've led to them not valuing it enough to make the moves. I like that they have their price and stick to it rather than fall for these shenanigans though.

Think of it this way, if you had a legit Kluber type ace 1/5 of the games it would allow to unleash bullpen fury the other days. Problem of course is Bum just isn't that level anymore. But there is a value in him or anyone (maybe Nelson or Burnes) being able to do that here and there to give the pen a break. I'm guessing that's what they're looking for, but so far haven't found a price they're willing to pay. And if they don't find it, they'll roll the same as last year and hope for some more SP innings due to in theory Burnes, Nelson, Davies, Anderson etc being better than the guys they had last year (or in Davies/Anderson cases just closer to their previous seasons).

I haven't looked a the schedule yet but I hope there isn't another 24 straight game stretch like before the ASB and 17 straight stretch after on it again.


Last edited by tmwiese55 on January 09, 2019, 11:37 AM, edited 1 time in total.

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Offline  Re: Madison Bumgarner
Posted: January 09, 2019, 11:32 AM Post
Posts: 3741
I continue to believe that the Giants & Brewers aren't really close to making this deal. I think it was a slow news day & Morosi speculated about the possibilities of this trade, and MLB Network ran with it. Nothing more than that...

The David Stearns era: Controllable Young Talent. Watch the Jedi work his magic!


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Offline  Re: Madison Bumgarner
Posted: January 09, 2019, 11:38 AM Post
Posts: 4804
Location: Madison, WI
3and2Fastball said:
I continue to believe that the Giants & Brewers aren't really close to making this deal. I think it was a slow news day & Morosi speculated about the possibilities of this trade, and MLB Network ran with it. Nothing more than that...


I agree. they talked, nothing close. Giants leak info to try and drive price up or kick the market a bit. That's all it is to me.


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Offline  Re: Madison Bumgarner
Posted: January 09, 2019, 11:45 AM Post
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If only we had an insider who could give us a percentage on this deal happening ...

I just spent the last half hour reading through the now-locked Yelich rumor thread from last offseason. There were so many off-the-mark comments, but others were close to right-on. One poster even floated the idea of trading for Yelich and signing Cain a week before it actually happened. A few of the Yelich trade proposals were pretty dang close as well. Of course, as the speculation mounted in the couple days leading up to the deal on Feb. 25, things got a little nervy. Still, it was fun to read through in retrospect, and I recommend it if you have some free time.

I wonder if this thread will get that far?


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Offline  Re: Madison Bumgarner
Posted: January 09, 2019, 12:42 PM Post
Posts: 12131
The fear in the back of every GM faced with Stearns' decision here stems from the Smoltz for Doyle Alexander deal back almost 30 years ago. That being said, is there room in the Brewer rotation for all of Burnes, Woodruff and Peralta, and is there a guy a year or two behind them who will figure as prominently as any of those three. The advantage in theory is if the Giants value all 3 equally, which gives Stearns the ability to decide who's the least indispensable of the three. Woodruff is the oldest by a couple years over Burnes and 4 over Peralta. That's not insignificant.

I think this one simmers for a while, and Stearns parlays the Giants desire for one of those three to get them to add something better than nominal value to the deal. Maybe a young lottery pick talent like a Camilo Doval or Jake Wong.


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Offline  Re: Madison Bumgarner
Posted: January 09, 2019, 1:28 PM Post
Posts: 5140
Location: New Berlin, WI
JohnBriggs12 said:
The fear in the back of every GM faced with Stearns' decision here stems from the Smoltz for Doyle Alexander deal back almost 30 years ago. That being said, is there room in the Brewer rotation for all of Burnes, Woodruff and Peralta, and is there a guy a year or two behind them who will figure as prominently as any of those three. The advantage in theory is if the Giants value all 3 equally, which gives Stearns the ability to decide who's the least indispensable of the three. Woodruff is the oldest by a couple years over Burnes and 4 over Peralta. That's not insignificant.

I think this one simmers for a while, and Stearns parlays the Giants desire for one of those three to get them to add something better than nominal value to the deal. Maybe a young lottery pick talent like a Camilo Doval or Jake Wong.


I frankly can't see Stearns giving one of them up. We'll see if I'm wrong, I don't think MB warrants that caliber of return.


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Offline  Re: Madison Bumgarner
Posted: January 09, 2019, 1:35 PM Post
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Posts: 10649
KeithStone53151 said:
JohnBriggs12 said:
The fear in the back of every GM faced with Stearns' decision here stems from the Smoltz for Doyle Alexander deal back almost 30 years ago. That being said, is there room in the Brewer rotation for all of Burnes, Woodruff and Peralta, and is there a guy a year or two behind them who will figure as prominently as any of those three. The advantage in theory is if the Giants value all 3 equally, which gives Stearns the ability to decide who's the least indispensable of the three. Woodruff is the oldest by a couple years over Burnes and 4 over Peralta. That's not insignificant.

I think this one simmers for a while, and Stearns parlays the Giants desire for one of those three to get them to add something better than nominal value to the deal. Maybe a young lottery pick talent like a Camilo Doval or Jake Wong.


I frankly can't see Stearns giving one of them up. We'll see if I'm wrong, I don't think MB warrants that caliber of return.


I hope you are right... If things break right, we could see a rotation of Peralta, Woodruff, Burnes and Brown in just a couple of years.


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Offline  Re: Madison Bumgarner
Posted: January 09, 2019, 1:36 PM Post
Posts: 777
Location: Washburn, WI
Joey Meyer Bombs said:
If only we had an insider who could give us a percentage on this deal happening ...

I just spent the last half hour reading through the now-locked Yelich rumor thread from last offseason. There were so many off-the-mark comments, but others were close to right-on. One poster even floated the idea of trading for Yelich and signing Cain a week before it actually happened. A few of the Yelich trade proposals were pretty dang close as well. Of course, as the speculation mounted in the couple days leading up to the deal on Feb. 25, things got a little nervy. Still, it was fun to read through in retrospect, and I recommend it if you have some free time.

I wonder if this thread will get that far?


There is a 100% chance of something happening. Not sure if it will be now or next offseason. He will go somewhere though. If for some reason he doesn’t get moved (which he will), that percent drops to 0%. Things can change quickly. It’s getting pretty wild. You won’t like who’s being mentioned in the trade, but I can’t tell you who it is. And don’t ask for any hints! Things are pretty fluid right now though, check back tonight at 9 for an update Joey.


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Offline  Re: Madison Bumgarner
Posted: January 09, 2019, 1:42 PM Post
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Posts: 9476
RollieTime said:
Joey Meyer Bombs said:
If only we had an insider who could give us a percentage on this deal happening ...

I just spent the last half hour reading through the now-locked Yelich rumor thread from last offseason. There were so many off-the-mark comments, but others were close to right-on. One poster even floated the idea of trading for Yelich and signing Cain a week before it actually happened. A few of the Yelich trade proposals were pretty dang close as well. Of course, as the speculation mounted in the couple days leading up to the deal on Feb. 25, things got a little nervy. Still, it was fun to read through in retrospect, and I recommend it if you have some free time.

I wonder if this thread will get that far?


There is a 100% chance of something happening. Not sure if it will be now or next offseason. He will go somewhere though. If for some reason he doesn’t get moved (which he will), that percent drops to 0%. Things can change quickly. It’s getting pretty wild. You won’t like who’s being mentioned in the trade, but I can’t tell you who it is. And don’t ask for any hints! Things are pretty fluid right now though, check back tonight at 9 for an update Joey.


+1. I wish there was a way to promote posts here. That is just terrific! Really puts the ridiculousness of late January last year in perspective [smile]


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Offline  Re: Madison Bumgarner
Posted: January 09, 2019, 2:06 PM Post
Posts: 5140
Location: New Berlin, WI
turborickey said:
KeithStone53151 said:
I frankly can't see Stearns giving one of them up. We'll see if I'm wrong, I don't think MB warrants that caliber of return.


I hope you are right... If things break right, we could see a rotation of Peralta, Woodruff, Burnes and Brown in just a couple of years.


I'm not as confident about this as I am regarding Realmuto not landing an elite prospect. That's a hill I'm willing to die on. MB is a bit tricky because of his postseason pedigree and name value.

I noticed that JosephC had Ray as more valuable than both Woodruff and Peralta, I completely disagree with those valuations...both pitchers should probably be multiple steps ahead of Ray. If other teams hold those 3 values similar...we should trade Ray immediately.


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Offline  Re: Madison Bumgarner
Posted: January 09, 2019, 2:15 PM Post
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Fangraphs Kiley McDaniel when asked on his chat earlier today...

Joe: What’s a fair price to pay if your Milwaukee for Mad Bum?

Kiley McDaniel: The back of the envelope math is $12-15M in surplus value for Bumgarner which would be between 3/Corey Ray and 4/Brice Turang

carrotjuice: Why does Bumgarner, projected for 2.1 WAR, have $12-15M surplus? Hopes that he can regain his 2016 self?

Kiley McDaniel: It’s an estimate, but 2.1 seems a little light to me. He’s making $12 million, so 2.5-3.0 WAR seems a little closer and also what the acquiring team is probably expecting/SF would require to trade a franchise face type. But yes, 2.1 WAR at $12M might be more like $8M, which would be just below Turang, but still a 45 FV type. It’s right about that area in a 1-for-1.


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Offline  Re: Madison Bumgarner
Posted: January 09, 2019, 2:18 PM Post
Posts: 5140
Location: New Berlin, WI
Eye Black said:
Fangraphs Kiley McDaniel when asked on his chat earlier today...

Joe: What’s a fair price to pay if your Milwaukee for Mad Bum?

Kiley McDaniel: The back of the envelope math is $12-15M in surplus value for Bumgarner which would be between 3/Corey Ray and 4/Brice Turang


That's about where I'm at. I imagine we'd have to pay a premium for MB's name/pedigree/postseason experience...but that premium isn't vaulting up toward Peralta/Woodruff.


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Offline  Re: Madison Bumgarner
Posted: January 09, 2019, 2:41 PM Post
Posts: 19183
A Swing and A Drive said:
Quetion: What makes

Corbin Burnes, Freddy Peralta and Brandon Woodruff

any different than

Jimmy Nelson, Jorge Lopez and Taylor Jungmann?


I will say that I also believe the top 3 to be better MLB prospects, however, there's a VERY good chance based of history of prospect success rates that only one of the 3 become an impactful MLB talent.

Why hesitate to trade one of them in a package for a proven MLB talent like Madison Bumgarner?



1) You only get Bumgarner for 1 year
2) You get the other pitchers for 6 years
3) He costs 12 million dollars which is a huge portion of the rest of our budget while the other 3 cost basically nothing
4) Bumgarner has shown decline the last 2 seasons
5) Bumgarner's recent history is a red flag
6) He's an unlikable diva

We've waited years upon years for this organization to develop home grown pitching and now you want to trade off one for 1 year rental. MadBum is good, but this isn't Max Scherzer.

Nelson also seems like a strange inclusion in your above group as he had finally developed into an ace for us. Unfortunately he got hurt and that is what it is, we will have to see what happens with him now, but he had become exactly who we hoped.

This organization must be able to depend on homegrown talent to succeed. We can't let past failures scare us from continuing to try to develop homegrown pitching.


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Offline  Re: Madison Bumgarner
Posted: January 09, 2019, 2:55 PM Post
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Another big difference between Burnes/Peralta/Woodruff & Nelson/Lopez/Jungmann is that the entire philosophy behind our development of minor league pitching has evolved considerably since Nelson/Lopez/Jungmann were on the farm.


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Offline  Re: Madison Bumgarner
Posted: January 09, 2019, 3:23 PM Post
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sveumrules said:
Another big difference between Burnes/Peralta/Woodruff & Nelson/Lopez/Jungmann is that the entire philosophy behind our development of minor league pitching has evolved considerably since Nelson/Lopez/Jungmann were on the farm.


I agree with this regarding the development of Brewers minor league pitching has improved, however, I think the talent level of those three are being inflated in Brewer fans minds. Just like for the previous three I mentioned.

Here's my guess on what happens:

- Giants don't trade Bumgarner this offseason.
- Bumgarner has a nice first half and reverts to near ACE-level form
- Woodruff has a mediocre first half and is used in both bullpen and rotation at times.
- Giants trade Bumgarner to a contender in July and get much more than a player like Woodruff/Ray in value, in spite of acquiring team no longer being able to get draft pick compensation.

IMO, the Brewers would be missing an opportunity to buy low on Bumgarner and sell high on Woodruff this offseason, while also being able to get future draft pick compensation by being able to offer MadBum a Qualifying Offer.

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Offline  Re: Madison Bumgarner
Posted: January 09, 2019, 3:32 PM Post
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Eye Black said:
Fangraphs Kiley McDaniel when asked on his chat earlier today...

Joe: What’s a fair price to pay if your Milwaukee for Mad Bum?

Kiley McDaniel: The back of the envelope math is $12-15M in surplus value for Bumgarner which would be between 3/Corey Ray and 4/Brice Turang

carrotjuice: Why does Bumgarner, projected for 2.1 WAR, have $12-15M surplus? Hopes that he can regain his 2016 self?

Kiley McDaniel: It’s an estimate, but 2.1 seems a little light to me. He’s making $12 million, so 2.5-3.0 WAR seems a little closer and also what the acquiring team is probably expecting/SF would require to trade a franchise face type. But yes, 2.1 WAR at $12M might be more like $8M, which would be just below Turang, but still a 45 FV type. It’s right about that area in a 1-for-1.

Our own JosephC was pretty accurate the other day when he put MadBum's value right around $15M. He noted that Peralta, Ray and Woodruff all probably had similar surplus values - $15-20M.

And as Kiley McDaniel notes - there's going to probably be a bit of a premium to pay to pry away a face-of-the-franchise type guy like Bumgarner.


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Offline  Re: Madison Bumgarner
Posted: January 09, 2019, 4:03 PM Post
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Good info from BFnetter Joseph C as well as from Kiley McDaniel.

I think it would take 2 main pieces to pry Bumgarner from the Giants this offseason.

Headliner
OF Corey Ray or RHP Brandon Woodruff or RHP Freddy Peralta

Secondary piece
RHP Chase Anderson, RHP Zach Davies, OF Troy Stokes, OF Trent Grisham, C Mario Feliciano


Any insistence on Corbin Burnes being in the deal is a non-starter, IMO.


Not sure if Stearns will be willing to meet Giants asking price and I agree that he's more likely a Trade Deadline candidate for a contender.

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Offline  Re: Madison Bumgarner
Posted: January 09, 2019, 4:43 PM Post
Posts: 5140
Location: New Berlin, WI
A Swing and A Drive said:
Good info from BFnetter Joseph C as well as from Kiley McDaniel.

I think it would take 2 main pieces to pry Bumgarner from the Giants this offseason.

Headliner
OF Corey Ray or RHP Brandon Woodruff or RHP Freddy Peralta

Secondary piece
RHP Chase Anderson, RHP Zach Davies, OF Troy Stokes, OF Trent Grisham, C Mario Feliciano


Any insistence on Corbin Burnes being in the deal is a non-starter, IMO.


Not sure if Stearns will be willing to meet Giants asking price and I agree that he's more likely a Trade Deadline candidate for a contender.


These guys aren't even remotely close to similar value. Would be like having the best secondary piece being from a list including Josh Hader, Corey Ray, Jacob Gatewood, Oliver Drake, and Jeff Suppan


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