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Madison Bumgarner

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Offline  Re: Madison Bumgarner
Posted: January 09, 2019, 4:57 PM Post
Posts: 1587
Oxy said:
We would also be getting a top draft pick in compensation after next year...So we'd likely have to throw in Micah Bello or Joe Gray or the equivalent on top of whatever a fair trade would be for 1 year of MadBum at $12M.


That's probably not a given. If he continues to slide, the QO might very well be his best option.

I can't stand the guy, and he might not be much better than any of the homegrown guys I like anyway. I'd pass. I think they're just looking for bargains and aren't really interested in so-called premium starters unless they really are likely to be head-and-shoulders above the rest and represent a good value. They have to do due diligence, but that doesn't necessarily mean they're really as interested in big-name starters as some of the rumors suggest.


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Offline  Re: Madison Bumgarner
Posted: January 09, 2019, 7:25 PM Post
Posts: 1400
Location: Madison, WI
KeithStone53151 said:
I noticed that JosephC had Ray as more valuable than both Woodruff and Peralta, I completely disagree with those valuations...both pitchers should probably be multiple steps ahead of Ray. If other teams hold those 3 values similar...we should trade Ray immediately.


Please note that I valued Woodruff the equivalent of a #80 prospect (on the top 100), Peralta as the equivalent of a #100 prospect and Ray the equivalent of a #110 prospect. If I had 20 different prospect lists and took the average of where each of these players fell on the list, those would be my "best guess" numbers. So actually I had Woodruff and Peralta higher in terms of rank. Ray gets the higher dollar value because when the experts start looking at old prospect lists and then calculate WAR for the players first six years based on the historical data, hitters tend to do better than pitchers so hitters get the slightly higher value numbers.

See the following, which is the basis for most of the numbers I come up with. I believe the first time I saw this was when reillymcshane posted the 2016 version at brewerfan.net
http://www.thepointofpittsburgh.com/mlb ... d-edition/


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Offline  Re: Madison Bumgarner
Posted: January 09, 2019, 9:03 PM Post
Posts: 4118
coolhandluke121 said:
Oxy said:
We would also be getting a top draft pick in compensation after next year...So we'd likely have to throw in Micah Bello or Joe Gray or the equivalent on top of whatever a fair trade would be for 1 year of MadBum at $12M.


That's probably not a given. If he continues to slide, the QO might very well be his best option.

I can't stand the guy, and he might not be much better than any of the homegrown guys I like anyway. I'd pass. I think they're just looking for bargains and aren't really interested in so-called premium starters unless they really are likely to be head-and-shoulders above the rest and represent a good value. They have to do due diligence, but that doesn't necessarily mean they're really as interested in big-name starters as some of the rumors suggest.


Agreed.

Find out the Giants' initial ask, then see how flexible they might be. See if negotiations will work, or if further discussion is a waste of time.

I could live with a package of Lucas Erceg, Mario Feliciano, and Adrian Houser for Bumgarner. If they want one of the young guns... I'd probably pass, and wait for Brent Suter to come back from his Tommy John.


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Offline  Re: Madison Bumgarner
Posted: January 09, 2019, 9:50 PM Post
Posts: 554
Location: Milwaukee
JosephC said:
KeithStone53151 said:
I noticed that JosephC had Ray as more valuable than both Woodruff and Peralta, I completely disagree with those valuations...both pitchers should probably be multiple steps ahead of Ray. If other teams hold those 3 values similar...we should trade Ray immediately.


Please note that I valued Woodruff the equivalent of a #80 prospect (on the top 100), Peralta as the equivalent of a #100 prospect and Ray the equivalent of a #110 prospect. If I had 20 different prospect lists and took the average of where each of these players fell on the list, those would be my "best guess" numbers. So actually I had Woodruff and Peralta higher in terms of rank. Ray gets the higher dollar value because when the experts start looking at old prospect lists and then calculate WAR for the players first six years based on the historical data, hitters tend to do better than pitchers so hitters get the slightly higher value numbers.

See the following, which is the basis for most of the numbers I come up with. I believe the first time I saw this was when reillymcshane posted the 2016 version at brewerfan.net
http://www.thepointofpittsburgh.com/mlb ... d-edition/

But if you're factoring in Ray's present day value then you can't use rankings for Woodruff and Peralta as neither are prospects anymore. They've both proven they can perform at the MLB level and in high stress situations - they're now MLB arms.

Regardless, all of them have more surplus value than Bum's 15M area so technically none of them should be on the table as it's an overpay. Although I can easily see someone of Ray's caliber going for Bum but could just as easily see something like a Erceg + Houser.


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Offline  Re: Madison Bumgarner
Posted: January 09, 2019, 10:33 PM Post
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Posts: 1450
I always enjoy JosephC's contributions as well. For whatever it's worth, Craig Edwards at FanGraphs has slightly different values, perhaps because he's using $9M/win? In the list he puts Ray's value at $20M, Lutz at $25M, and Hiura at $44M. A pitcher at the 80 spot, 50 FV would be similar to Ray I'd guess...that's a median future WAR of 2.3. You'd think that Burnes, Woodruff, and Peralta (in that order, IMO) with their varying degrees of major league success would each be good for at least that over the next six years. Heck, six 0.5 win seasons puts them at surplus value of $27M.

You have to be somewhat optimistic about Bumgarner to get a surplus value of $20M or more (needs a 3.5 win season, right?), which is part of the reason I'd be reluctant to move any of those six for him.

https://blogs.fangraphs.com/an-update-t ... valuation/

The later article below puts the value of a 45 FV at well south of that, though, and we don't even have many guys in that range, so you're probably looking at a quantity deal, or no deal at all. It's really hard to match up, particularly if there are disparate reads on Bumgarner's expected value.

https://blogs.fangraphs.com/putting-a-d ... e-top-100/


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Offline  Re: Madison Bumgarner
Posted: January 10, 2019, 10:06 AM Post
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Posts: 534
I like Bumgarner enough as a player but, like most of y'all I don't want to overpay for a pitcher with the warts that he has. Corey Ray by himself is probably an overpay in my mind. I'd toss out an offer of Zach Davies or Chase Anderson and Corey Ray for Maddy B and Panik, who I'm not a big fan of either.

If the Giants are sold on needing one the Brewers prized trio of young arms (along with others) then awesome, but I need Madison Bumgarner and Will Smith. Even then I'm nervous about pulling the trigger.


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Offline  Re: Madison Bumgarner
Posted: January 10, 2019, 1:21 PM Post
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I'm honestly hoping that Miley comes back at this point. He was incredible last year and if all it takes is a Chacin level investment, then I would much rather go that route than trade prospects and hold our breath that Bumgarner resorts to his pre-injury form.


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Offline  Re: Madison Bumgarner
Posted: January 10, 2019, 3:35 PM Post
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Posts: 1456
If his value is as low as Brewerfan thinks it is I sure hope Stearns can make a great buy low trade for him. I'd love to have him.


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Offline  Re: Madison Bumgarner
Posted: February 09, 2019, 5:52 PM Post
Posts: 15762
https://www.yahoo.com/sports/madison-bu ... 31660.html

I forgot how much of a pretentious entitled diva this guy is. I don't want him just for that reason.


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Offline  Re: Madison Bumgarner
Posted: February 09, 2019, 6:05 PM Post
Posts: 955
Wow! What a tool!


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Offline  Re: Madison Bumgarner
Posted: February 09, 2019, 9:16 PM Post
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Posts: 8133
adambr2 said:
https://www.yahoo.com/sports/madison-bumgarner-im-walking-right-ballpark-giants-use-opener-ace-230831660.html

I forgot how much of a pretentious entitled diva this guy is. I don't want him just for that reason.


Between his comments and Buster Posey's yesterday, the Giants clubhouse seems to rival the Cardinals for total number of sticks up butts.


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Offline  Re: Madison Bumgarner
Posted: February 10, 2019, 5:59 PM Post
Posts: 955
jerichoholicninja said:
adambr2 said:
https://www.yahoo.com/sports/madison-bumgarner-im-walking-right-ballpark-giants-use-opener-ace-230831660.html

I forgot how much of a pretentious entitled diva this guy is. I don't want him just for that reason.


Between his comments and Buster Posey's yesterday, the Giants clubhouse seems to rival the Cardinals for total number of sticks up butts.


Can number of sticks up butts be a new analytical tool please?


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Offline  Re: Madison Bumgarner
Posted: February 10, 2019, 7:04 PM Post
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Posts: 905
stalton said:
jerichoholicninja said:
adambr2 said:
https://www.yahoo.com/sports/madison-bumgarner-im-walking-right-ballpark-giants-use-opener-ace-230831660.html

I forgot how much of a pretentious entitled diva this guy is. I don't want him just for that reason.


Between his comments and Buster Posey's yesterday, the Giants clubhouse seems to rival the Cardinals for total number of sticks up butts.


Can number of sticks up butts be a new analytical tool please?


I’m pretty sure Brian McCann, “madbum” and Molina took them all. Lots of sticks.

Valar Morghulis


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Offline  Re: Madison Bumgarner
Posted: February 11, 2019, 9:22 AM Post
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Posts: 1456
adambr2 said:
https://www.yahoo.com/sports/madison-bumgarner-im-walking-right-ballpark-giants-use-opener-ace-230831660.html

I forgot how much of a pretentious entitled diva this guy is. I don't want him just for that reason.



You know that he didn't actually walk out of the park once an opener was used for him. He didn't even TWEET that that is what he would do. It was a private txt from him to Bochy that Bochy made public. If you want to judge somebody as a pretentious entitled diva based on private txts not meant for the public...well... that's not a road I want to go down.

I'd say that Bochy used poor judgment more than Bumgarner.


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Offline  Re: Madison Bumgarner
Posted: February 11, 2019, 11:45 AM Post
Posts: 1869
Oxy said:
adambr2 said:
https://www.yahoo.com/sports/madison-bumgarner-im-walking-right-ballpark-giants-use-opener-ace-230831660.html

I forgot how much of a pretentious entitled diva this guy is. I don't want him just for that reason.



You know that he didn't actually walk out of the park once an opener was used for him. He didn't even TWEET that that is what he would do. It was a private txt from him to Bochy that Bochy made public. If you want to judge somebody as a pretentious entitled diva based on private txts not meant for the public...well... that's not a road I want to go down.

I'd say that Bochy used poor judgment more than Bumgarner.


I don't see what the difference public or private would have in this case, unless you are saying he was joking because it was to Bochy?

Because if he wasn't joking, then the point remains. He is going to throw fits if he isn't treated in the way he feels he should be. Not someone I want on the team (not that I did before that tweet/text came out for full disclosure).


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Offline  Re: Madison Bumgarner
Posted: February 11, 2019, 12:02 PM Post
Posts: 3611
It was a private text. Bothy shared it at Fan Fest in a humorous manner. Mostly just an inside joke from an old school manager. In my opinion people are making way too much of this

The David Stearns era: Controllable Young Talent. Watch the Jedi work his magic!


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Offline  Re: Madison Bumgarner
Posted: February 11, 2019, 12:02 PM Post
Posts: 7957
I have no problem with what he said. He's an accomplished vet, and has a right to feel this way. I'm sure he's not alone. Bochy is an old school guy, and probably not a big fan of these new creative ways to us the pitching staff. Looks like he's using Madbum to send a message to the front office.


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Offline  Re: Madison Bumgarner
Posted: February 11, 2019, 12:18 PM Post
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Roderick said:
I don't see what the difference public or private would have in this case, unless you are saying he was joking because it was to Bochy?

Because if he wasn't joking, then the point remains. He is going to throw fits if he isn't treated in the way he feels he should be. Not someone I want on the team (not that I did before that tweet/text came out for full disclosure).


In this case it makes all the difference. He wasn't "joking," but he was hyperbolizing his opinion in private, which is a big nothingburger. If in a press conference, somebody asked him his opinion of "opener's" perhaps he would just say "I don't like the idea." Which is probably the same opinion as 90+% of every other 29+ year old MLB pitcher who has been a "starter" his entire career.

Part of what has made Bumgarner an ace is a certain type of bullheadedness. Sometimes, that's bad (throwing at Braun last year...in a meaningless game for the Giants mind you). Sometimes that's good--being a dominant ace on 2 World Series Champions and a significant contributor on a third. There is a possibility that if you take away that emotional stubbornness that can sometimes result in minor negatives you run the risk of also taking away the edge that makes him a potential HOFer.

That type of attitude is certainly not worth the risk on a marginal talent, but Bumgarner isn't a marginal talent. Still, it's just part of his entire package that one would take into account when ascribing what his value would be in a trade, but it's not something that you would write him off as a complete bonehead for, or as a reason why you would have no interest in having on your team no matter what.


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Offline  Re: Madison Bumgarner
Posted: February 11, 2019, 12:30 PM Post
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Posts: 8133
Bumgarner OPS allowed by time facing order.
Career:
1 - .623
2 - .639
3 - .710

In 2018
1 - .566
2 - .683
3 - .868

Even MadBum is not immune to the 3rd time through.


Last edited by jerichoholicninja on February 11, 2019, 8:39 PM, edited 1 time in total.

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Offline  Re: Madison Bumgarner
Posted: February 11, 2019, 5:39 PM Post
Posts: 15762
Oxy said:
adambr2 said:
https://www.yahoo.com/sports/madison-bumgarner-im-walking-right-ballpark-giants-use-opener-ace-230831660.html

I forgot how much of a pretentious entitled diva this guy is. I don't want him just for that reason.



You know that he didn't actually walk out of the park once an opener was used for him. He didn't even TWEET that that is what he would do. It was a private txt from him to Bochy that Bochy made public. If you want to judge somebody as a pretentious entitled diva based on private txts not meant for the public...well... that's not a road I want to go down.

I'd say that Bochy used poor judgment more than Bumgarner.


This is the same guy who yelled "Don't look at me!" at a hitter because he was pissy that he made a bad pitch. The same guy who yelled at the entire Texas Rangers' bench because he didn't like the way they were playing the game. The same guy who yelled "You're not that (expletive) good!" at Alex Guerrero multiple times simply for being frustrated at popping up a pitch. The same guy who throws beanballs every time he feels the slightest whiff of disrespect.

He's a pretentious entitled diva. This is simply another small exhibit among many.


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