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Madison Bumgarner

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Offline  Re: Madison Bumgarner
Posted: January 09, 2019, 4:57 PM Post
Posts: 1387
Oxy said:
We would also be getting a top draft pick in compensation after next year...So we'd likely have to throw in Micah Bello or Joe Gray or the equivalent on top of whatever a fair trade would be for 1 year of MadBum at $12M.


That's probably not a given. If he continues to slide, the QO might very well be his best option.

I can't stand the guy, and he might not be much better than any of the homegrown guys I like anyway. I'd pass. I think they're just looking for bargains and aren't really interested in so-called premium starters unless they really are likely to be head-and-shoulders above the rest and represent a good value. They have to do due diligence, but that doesn't necessarily mean they're really as interested in big-name starters as some of the rumors suggest.


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Online  Re: Madison Bumgarner
Posted: January 09, 2019, 7:25 PM Post
Posts: 1278
Location: Madison, WI
KeithStone53151 said:
I noticed that JosephC had Ray as more valuable than both Woodruff and Peralta, I completely disagree with those valuations...both pitchers should probably be multiple steps ahead of Ray. If other teams hold those 3 values similar...we should trade Ray immediately.


Please note that I valued Woodruff the equivalent of a #80 prospect (on the top 100), Peralta as the equivalent of a #100 prospect and Ray the equivalent of a #110 prospect. If I had 20 different prospect lists and took the average of where each of these players fell on the list, those would be my "best guess" numbers. So actually I had Woodruff and Peralta higher in terms of rank. Ray gets the higher dollar value because when the experts start looking at old prospect lists and then calculate WAR for the players first six years based on the historical data, hitters tend to do better than pitchers so hitters get the slightly higher value numbers.

See the following, which is the basis for most of the numbers I come up with. I believe the first time I saw this was when reillymcshane posted the 2016 version at brewerfan.net
http://www.thepointofpittsburgh.com/mlb ... d-edition/


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Offline  Re: Madison Bumgarner
Posted: January 09, 2019, 9:03 PM Post
Posts: 3953
coolhandluke121 said:
Oxy said:
We would also be getting a top draft pick in compensation after next year...So we'd likely have to throw in Micah Bello or Joe Gray or the equivalent on top of whatever a fair trade would be for 1 year of MadBum at $12M.


That's probably not a given. If he continues to slide, the QO might very well be his best option.

I can't stand the guy, and he might not be much better than any of the homegrown guys I like anyway. I'd pass. I think they're just looking for bargains and aren't really interested in so-called premium starters unless they really are likely to be head-and-shoulders above the rest and represent a good value. They have to do due diligence, but that doesn't necessarily mean they're really as interested in big-name starters as some of the rumors suggest.


Agreed.

Find out the Giants' initial ask, then see how flexible they might be. See if negotiations will work, or if further discussion is a waste of time.

I could live with a package of Lucas Erceg, Mario Feliciano, and Adrian Houser for Bumgarner. If they want one of the young guns... I'd probably pass, and wait for Brent Suter to come back from his Tommy John.


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Online  Re: Madison Bumgarner
Posted: January 09, 2019, 9:50 PM Post
Posts: 500
Location: Milwaukee
JosephC said:
KeithStone53151 said:
I noticed that JosephC had Ray as more valuable than both Woodruff and Peralta, I completely disagree with those valuations...both pitchers should probably be multiple steps ahead of Ray. If other teams hold those 3 values similar...we should trade Ray immediately.


Please note that I valued Woodruff the equivalent of a #80 prospect (on the top 100), Peralta as the equivalent of a #100 prospect and Ray the equivalent of a #110 prospect. If I had 20 different prospect lists and took the average of where each of these players fell on the list, those would be my "best guess" numbers. So actually I had Woodruff and Peralta higher in terms of rank. Ray gets the higher dollar value because when the experts start looking at old prospect lists and then calculate WAR for the players first six years based on the historical data, hitters tend to do better than pitchers so hitters get the slightly higher value numbers.

See the following, which is the basis for most of the numbers I come up with. I believe the first time I saw this was when reillymcshane posted the 2016 version at brewerfan.net
http://www.thepointofpittsburgh.com/mlb ... d-edition/

But if you're factoring in Ray's present day value then you can't use rankings for Woodruff and Peralta as neither are prospects anymore. They've both proven they can perform at the MLB level and in high stress situations - they're now MLB arms.

Regardless, all of them have more surplus value than Bum's 15M area so technically none of them should be on the table as it's an overpay. Although I can easily see someone of Ray's caliber going for Bum but could just as easily see something like a Erceg + Houser.


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Offline  Re: Madison Bumgarner
Posted: January 09, 2019, 10:33 PM Post
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Posts: 1450
I always enjoy JosephC's contributions as well. For whatever it's worth, Craig Edwards at FanGraphs has slightly different values, perhaps because he's using $9M/win? In the list he puts Ray's value at $20M, Lutz at $25M, and Hiura at $44M. A pitcher at the 80 spot, 50 FV would be similar to Ray I'd guess...that's a median future WAR of 2.3. You'd think that Burnes, Woodruff, and Peralta (in that order, IMO) with their varying degrees of major league success would each be good for at least that over the next six years. Heck, six 0.5 win seasons puts them at surplus value of $27M.

You have to be somewhat optimistic about Bumgarner to get a surplus value of $20M or more (needs a 3.5 win season, right?), which is part of the reason I'd be reluctant to move any of those six for him.

https://blogs.fangraphs.com/an-update-t ... valuation/

The later article below puts the value of a 45 FV at well south of that, though, and we don't even have many guys in that range, so you're probably looking at a quantity deal, or no deal at all. It's really hard to match up, particularly if there are disparate reads on Bumgarner's expected value.

https://blogs.fangraphs.com/putting-a-d ... e-top-100/


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Offline  Re: Madison Bumgarner
Posted: January 10, 2019, 10:06 AM Post
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Posts: 525
I like Bumgarner enough as a player but, like most of y'all I don't want to overpay for a pitcher with the warts that he has. Corey Ray by himself is probably an overpay in my mind. I'd toss out an offer of Zach Davies or Chase Anderson and Corey Ray for Maddy B and Panik, who I'm not a big fan of either.

If the Giants are sold on needing one the Brewers prized trio of young arms (along with others) then awesome, but I need Madison Bumgarner and Will Smith. Even then I'm nervous about pulling the trigger.


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Offline  Re: Madison Bumgarner
Posted: January 10, 2019, 1:21 PM Post
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Posts: 1410
I'm honestly hoping that Miley comes back at this point. He was incredible last year and if all it takes is a Chacin level investment, then I would much rather go that route than trade prospects and hold our breath that Bumgarner resorts to his pre-injury form.


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Offline  Re: Madison Bumgarner
Posted: January 10, 2019, 3:35 PM Post
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Posts: 1428
If his value is as low as Brewerfan thinks it is I sure hope Stearns can make a great buy low trade for him. I'd love to have him.


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