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Mike Moustakas News

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Online  Re: Mike Moustakas News
#41

Posted: January 23, 2019, 7:50 AM Post
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JohnBriggs12 said:
Instead of forking over a lot to get a redundant Moustakas, why not just sign Matt Davidson who has a career .804 OPS vs. LHP to use against LHP? Yeah he strikes out a lot, but he has power, and his K rate vs. lefties is lower than it is vs. RHP. His OBP went from .260 in 2017 to a respectable .319 last year.

Davidson might even be had on a minor league deal despite a decent WAR in 2018 of 1.2.


[tired] [rolling eyes]

why?


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Offline  Re: Mike Moustakas News
#42

Posted: January 23, 2019, 7:55 AM Post
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turborickey said:
JohnBriggs12 said:
Instead of forking over a lot to get a redundant Moustakas, why not just sign Matt Davidson who has a career .804 OPS vs. LHP to use against LHP? Yeah he strikes out a lot, but he has power, and his K rate vs. lefties is lower than it is vs. RHP. His OBP went from .260 in 2017 to a respectable .319 last year.

Davidson might even be had on a minor league deal despite a decent WAR in 2018 of 1.2.


[tired] [rolling eyes]

why?


Is Davidson the guy who also wants to pitch this year?


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Offline  Re: Mike Moustakas News
#43

Posted: January 23, 2019, 8:19 AM Post
Posts: 1947
JohnBriggs12 said:
Instead of forking over a lot to get a redundant Moustakas, why not just sign Matt Davidson who has a career .804 OPS vs. LHP to use against LHP?


Because most pitchers are RHP's and the Brewers already have enough guys who hit RHP's better. I still don't understand why many are obsessed with getting better against LHP's at the expense of getting worse against RHP's, who are the overwhelming majority.

Braun, Aguilar, Perez, Pina, Cain, and Arcia are better against LHP's.
Shaw, Gamel (barely), Thames, Yelich, Grandal, and Spangenberg are better against RHP's.
Yelich and Grandal are very effective against LHP's, despite it not being their preferred split.
Both groups have a balanced mix of dangerous hitters and role players, and they have defensive versatility.
The roster is almost perfectly balanced in regard to facing LHP's and RHP's, but should probably tilt more towards facing RHP's because that's about 75-80% of plate appearances.

It seems reactionary to want more mediocre RHB's just so you can throw 7 of them in the lineup every time an opponent starts an LHP. They did have a slump against LHP's last year, but I firmly believe that was a fluke. They have plenty of guys who can hit LHP's. Moustakas is a much better option than guys like Cabrera or Davidson.


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Online  Re: Mike Moustakas News
#44

Posted: January 23, 2019, 8:21 AM Post
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turborickey said:
JohnBriggs12 said:
Instead of forking over a lot to get a redundant Moustakas, why not just sign Matt Davidson who has a career .804 OPS vs. LHP to use against LHP? Yeah he strikes out a lot, but he has power, and his K rate vs. lefties is lower than it is vs. RHP. His OBP went from .260 in 2017 to a respectable .319 last year.

Davidson might even be had on a minor league deal despite a decent WAR in 2018 of 1.2.


[tired] [rolling eyes]

why?


Because Davidson's career 804 OPS versus lefties is higher than Shaw's career 713 OPS vs lefties.

If you look at just 2018 the difference is even more stark, 599 OPS for Shaw vs LHP compared to an 882 OPS vs LHP for Davidson.


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Offline  Re: Mike Moustakas News
#45

Posted: January 23, 2019, 9:56 AM Post
Posts: 913
Davidson, unless it turns out he can in fact pitch well too, is a RHH corner IF/DH who doesn't add anything on the bases, doesn't add anything on defense. The issue with him would be a 25-man roster spot; most pitchers are RHP, and so is it worth carrying someone to only hit against lefties, platooning in one position only? He might get, what, 250 PAs at most? From a roster fit standpoint I'll agree that Moustakas isn't an amazing option either, but his OPS overall is the same as Davidson against lefties only. And Moose is also a good defender. Worth pointing out too that Davidson only has 250 PAs against lefties too, when platoon splits in reality need a lot more than that to treat as stable.

On a minor league deal? Sure, makes sense. After roster expansion someone like him would be a very sensible way to get a bit of extra offense. But for the whole year? No. I'd echo the sentiment that Gonzalez seems like the ideal addition at this point, and I hope Brewers are seriously looking at it. Either as a Perez replacement, or as a complement; with those two on the bench, you can carry whichever bat-first player you want.


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Offline  Re: Mike Moustakas News
#46

Posted: January 23, 2019, 10:57 AM Post
Posts: 17369
OnTheBlack said:
adambr2 said:
Cirilloing said:
He's a power hitter who has a good glove and seems like a great clubhouse guy. Why not?


Because he won't be cheap and he reaches base about 30% of the time.



And he adds little versatility. For the money we're likely to spend on Moose, I'd prefer we go after Marwin Gonzalez. Especially since Hirura is likely to be ready in the near future, and Gonzalez is a switch hitter who can put up decent numbers vs lefties(not great, but better than Moose) while covering basically every position on the field.

You're also asking Shaw to become a full time 2nd basemen and while it worked OK last year for a couple months, I don't like the move long term. We've already got a good left handed 3rd basemen. We don't really seem to have the luxury of adding another one IMO.


It really does seem like Marwin or bust at this point. The other options like Harrison just aren't very exciting. I'm assuming with this that Machado will end up elsewhere but Marwin is still a realistic option.

As Joey said I wouldn't be opposed to Moose, but I would much rather have Gonzalez. As you said Shaw is far superior at 3rd, and though I appreciate his versatility I'd prefer be remain at 3rd.

Marwin would definitely be an exciting add. He's essentially a far better version of Hernan Perez and Hiura coming up wouldn't keep him out of the lineup because he's so versatile.


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Offline  Re: Mike Moustakas News
#47

Posted: January 23, 2019, 11:46 AM Post
Posts: 8289
coolhandluke121 said:
JohnBriggs12 said:
Instead of forking over a lot to get a redundant Moustakas, why not just sign Matt Davidson who has a career .804 OPS vs. LHP to use against LHP?


Because most pitchers are RHP's and the Brewers already have enough guys who hit RHP's better. I still don't understand why many are obsessed with getting better against LHP's at the expense of getting worse against RHP's, who are the overwhelming majority.

Braun, Aguilar, Perez, Pina, Cain, and Arcia are better against LHP's.
Shaw, Gamel (barely), Thames, Yelich, Grandal, and Spangenberg are better against RHP's.
Yelich and Grandal are very effective against LHP's, despite it not being their preferred split.
Both groups have a balanced mix of dangerous hitters and role players, and they have defensive versatility.
The roster is almost perfectly balanced in regard to facing LHP's and RHP's, but should probably tilt more towards facing RHP's because that's about 75-80% of plate appearances.

It seems reactionary to want more mediocre RHB's just so you can throw 7 of them in the lineup every time an opponent starts an LHP. They did have a slump against LHP's last year, but I firmly believe that was a fluke. They have plenty of guys who can hit LHP's. Moustakas is a much better option than guys like Cabrera or Davidson.


Just listing the players ignores where they'll be playing. Spangenberg should never face LHP. Shaw really shouldn't either, which means it would be helpful to have another bat to face LHP. Although, I did say earlier I wouldn't be opposed to giving Shaw a chance. Plus, if the plan is to bring Hiura or Dubon up at some point, they're fine. Also, keep in mind depending on who the RH bat is, they can be used against RHP as well- so it's not necessarily a LHP only bat.


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Offline  Re: Mike Moustakas News
#48

Posted: January 23, 2019, 12:02 PM Post
Posts: 1947
FVBrewerFan said:

Just listing the players ignores where they'll be playing.


I disagree. I know where they're all playing, but the math is much simpler than that. There's not enough roster spots to platoon nearly every position, and there's way too many RHP's to justify prioritizing the RHB side of a platoon over a guy like Moustakas.

Most LHB's struggle against LHP's. It's still easily worth the trade-off to hit so much better against RHP's though. There is absolutely nothing wrong with having Shaw or Moustakas in a lineup against LHP's. The benefits of having so many good LHB's would more than offset that.

ETA: If they could just sign Gonzalez, that would take care of all of this, but I have my doubts about the value there.


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Offline  Re: Mike Moustakas News
#49

Posted: January 24, 2019, 9:52 PM Post
Posts: 130
coolhandluke121 said:
FVBrewerFan said:

Just listing the players ignores where they'll be playing.


I disagree. I know where they're all playing, but the math is much simpler than that. There's not enough roster spots to platoon nearly every position, and there's way too many RHP's to justify prioritizing the RHB side of a platoon over a guy like Moustakas.

Most LHB's struggle against LHP's. It's still easily worth the trade-off to hit so much better against RHP's though. There is absolutely nothing wrong with having Shaw or Moustakas in a lineup against LHP's. The benefits of having so many good LHB's would more than offset that.

ETA: If they could just sign Gonzalez, that would take care of all of this, but I have my doubts about the value there.



I'm pretty sure Stearns sees Dubon (and to a lesser extent Spangenberg) as his next Hernan, a super-utility guy who would be much cheaper than Marwin. Doubt they have any plans to make a play there. I'd like to be proven wrong, of course.


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Offline  Re: Mike Moustakas News
#50

Posted: January 25, 2019, 6:32 AM Post
Posts: 322
coolhandluke121 said:
JohnBriggs12 said:
Instead of forking over a lot to get a redundant Moustakas, why not just sign Matt Davidson who has a career .804 OPS vs. LHP to use against LHP?


Because most pitchers are RHP's and the Brewers already have enough guys who hit RHP's better. I still don't understand why many are obsessed with getting better against LHP's at the expense of getting worse against RHP's, who are the overwhelming majority.

Braun, Aguilar, Perez, Pina, Cain, and Arcia are better against LHP's.
Shaw, Gamel (barely), Thames, Yelich, Grandal, and Spangenberg are better against RHP's.


Pina and Arcia actually have reverse splits and are better / much better versus RHP.


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Offline  Re: Mike Moustakas News
#51

Posted: January 25, 2019, 6:57 AM Post
Posts: 913
SandyTolan said:
I'm pretty sure Stearns sees Dubon (and to a lesser extent Spangenberg) as his next Hernan, a super-utility guy who would be much cheaper than Marwin. Doubt they have any plans to make a play there. I'd like to be proven wrong, of course.


Dubon would be a decent shout to potentially be a Perez, although I still think he has a chance to stick at SS/2B. I don't see Spangenberg in that role though, as you want your super utility guy to be able to play SS, as from a roster standpoint it's likely the best way to get a backup SS on the roster while not sacrificing too much offense.

I also view Marwin somewhat differently; I see him as more akin to Ben Zobrist or Chris Taylor. That is to say as a starting quality bat but with no set position, the kind of player who you plan on starting almost the majority of games even if it's in 4 different positions. Whereas Hernan Perez is someone you intend to be a bench player, who will fill in for injuries, enable double switches, act as a defensive substitute etc.


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Online  Re: Mike Moustakas News
#52

Posted: January 25, 2019, 7:49 AM Post
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Lathund said:
Whereas Hernan Perez is someone you intend to be a bench player, who will fill in for injuries, enable double switches, act as a defensive substitute etc.



...or who starts games unnecessarily because the manager can't stop himself from doing so.


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Online  Re: Mike Moustakas News
#53

Posted: January 25, 2019, 8:31 AM Post
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Location: Milwaukee, WI
turborickey said:
Lathund said:
Whereas Hernan Perez is someone you intend to be a bench player, who will fill in for injuries, enable double switches, act as a defensive substitute etc.



...or who starts games unnecessarily because the manager can't stop himself from doing so.


Perez started like 80 games last year. I don't know how that compares to other super subs but it doesn't seem like much so this might be a bit of hyperbole.


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Offline  Re: Mike Moustakas News
#54

Posted: January 25, 2019, 10:24 AM Post
Posts: 4570
Location: New Berlin, WI
Brew4U said:
turborickey said:
Lathund said:
Whereas Hernan Perez is someone you intend to be a bench player, who will fill in for injuries, enable double switches, act as a defensive substitute etc.



...or who starts games unnecessarily because the manager can't stop himself from doing so.


Perez started like 80 games last year. I don't know how that compares to other super subs but it doesn't seem like much so this might be a bit of hyperbole.


Chris Taylor is a super sub. Ben Zobrist in his prime was a super sub. Hernan Perez...not so much. There's a big difference between Perez and those 2 guys...primarily that they can hit.


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Online  Re: Mike Moustakas News
#55

Posted: January 25, 2019, 11:23 AM Post
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Location: Milwaukee, WI
KeithStone53151 said:
Brew4U said:
turborickey said:
...or who starts games unnecessarily because the manager can't stop himself from doing so.


Perez started like 80 games last year. I don't know how that compares to other super subs but it doesn't seem like much so this might be a bit of hyperbole.


Chris Taylor is a super sub. Ben Zobrist in his prime was a super sub. Hernan Perez...not so much. There's a big difference between Perez and those 2 guys...primarily that they can hit.


I get that he might not be what those guys are but he is our super sub. They like his defense. And his 80 starts still speaks to some of the overreaction to him being on the team. Myself included on that. If we could find an upgrade, I would be all for it but he does serve his purpose on our team.


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Offline  Re: Mike Moustakas News
#56

Posted: January 25, 2019, 11:29 AM Post
Posts: 4570
Location: New Berlin, WI
Brew4U said:
I get that he might not be what those guys are but he is our super sub. They like his defense. And his 80 starts still speaks to some of the overreaction to him being on the team. Myself included on that. If we could find an upgrade, I would be all for it but he does serve his purpose on our team.


I like having Perez on the team, but I think he's a bit overused is all and I think you feel the same. Frankly, Perez should probably see some time in most games...but primarily in double switches and as a defensive replacement. And with his versatility, once he enters the game he should almost never leave the game. If everything is going right, he should almost never start. He really shouldn't be the 2nd guy in line to start at any position besides SS if there's an injury. At the moment, he's probably 2nd in line to start at SS and 3b...and is in a soft platoon with CS at 2b.


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Offline  Re: Mike Moustakas News
#57

Posted: January 25, 2019, 11:36 AM Post
Posts: 1947
fleehaw said:
coolhandluke121 said:
JohnBriggs12 said:
Instead of forking over a lot to get a redundant Moustakas, why not just sign Matt Davidson who has a career .804 OPS vs. LHP to use against LHP?


Because most pitchers are RHP's and the Brewers already have enough guys who hit RHP's better. I still don't understand why many are obsessed with getting better against LHP's at the expense of getting worse against RHP's, who are the overwhelming majority.

Braun, Aguilar, Perez, Pina, Cain, and Arcia are better against LHP's.
Shaw, Gamel (barely), Thames, Yelich, Grandal, and Spangenberg are better against RHP's.


Pina and Arcia actually have reverse splits and are better / much better versus RHP.


Less than 500 combined MLB plate appearances. Pina was better against LHP's in the minors, which is probably a much more representative sample. Also, Arcia's splits are actually pretty even overall throughout his professional career, and his MLB tOPS+ actually leans ever so slightly better against LHP's. Also, pointing out their recent splits just proves my point about how their struggles against LHP's were a fluke last year.

Besides, even two borderline cases doesn't come close to diminishing the larger point. It doesn't make sense to prioritize how you hit LHP's any more than they have. There are about 3 times as many RHP's. It's more than worth it to add a good LHB like Moustakas even if it means having to start one guy who can't hit LHP's well. You can move that guy down the order and he might even get as many pa's against RHP relievers as he does against the LHP starter in the same game anyway.


Last edited by coolhandluke121 on January 25, 2019, 11:44 AM, edited 1 time in total.

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Online  Re: Mike Moustakas News
#58

Posted: January 25, 2019, 11:40 AM Post
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Posts: 9780
Brew4U said:
turborickey said:
Lathund said:
Whereas Hernan Perez is someone you intend to be a bench player, who will fill in for injuries, enable double switches, act as a defensive substitute etc.



...or who starts games unnecessarily because the manager can't stop himself from doing so.


Perez started like 80 games last year. I don't know how that compares to other super subs but it doesn't seem like much so this might be a bit of hyperbole.


Starting 80 games is too much for him...

This is why I said what I said.


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Offline  Re: Mike Moustakas News
#59

Posted: January 25, 2019, 11:43 AM Post
Posts: 1947
KeithStone53151 said:
Brew4U said:
I get that he might not be what those guys are but he is our super sub. They like his defense. And his 80 starts still speaks to some of the overreaction to him being on the team. Myself included on that. If we could find an upgrade, I would be all for it but he does serve his purpose on our team.


I like having Perez on the team, but I think he's a bit overused is all and I think you feel the same. Frankly, Perez should probably see some time in most games...but primarily in double switches and as a defensive replacement. And with his versatility, once he enters the game he should almost never leave the game. If everything is going right, he should almost never start. He really shouldn't be the 2nd guy in line to start at any position besides SS if there's an injury. At the moment, he's probably 2nd in line to start at SS and 3b...and is in a soft platoon with CS at 2b.


I don't disagree about his ability, but how is it realistic to have him on the 25 as a utility guy and not be the primary back-up at multiple positions even if everyone is healthy? Especially if you are one of the people saying they should often carry 13 pitchers? The numbers just don't work out at all. There are 8 positions to back up and only 4 back-ups. You can cover outfield with one back-up, but catcher takes one and only one of those spots. That leaves 2 players to back-up 4 infield spots. Who are you signing to be ahead of Perez at all 4 of them?


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Offline  Re: Mike Moustakas News
#60

Posted: January 25, 2019, 11:51 AM Post
Posts: 4570
Location: New Berlin, WI
coolhandluke121 said:
KeithStone53151 said:
Brew4U said:
I get that he might not be what those guys are but he is our super sub. They like his defense. And his 80 starts still speaks to some of the overreaction to him being on the team. Myself included on that. If we could find an upgrade, I would be all for it but he does serve his purpose on our team.


I like having Perez on the team, but I think he's a bit overused is all and I think you feel the same. Frankly, Perez should probably see some time in most games...but primarily in double switches and as a defensive replacement. And with his versatility, once he enters the game he should almost never leave the game. If everything is going right, he should almost never start. He really shouldn't be the 2nd guy in line to start at any position besides SS if there's an injury. At the moment, he's probably 2nd in line to start at SS and 3b...and is in a soft platoon with CS at 2b.


I don't disagree about his ability, but how is it realistic to have him on the 25 as a utility guy and not be the primary back-up at multiple positions even if everyone is healthy? Especially if you are one of the people saying they should often carry 13 pitchers? The numbers just don't work out at all. There are 8 positions to back up and only 4 back-ups. You can cover outfield with one back-up, but catcher takes one and only one of those spots. That leaves 2 players to back-up 4 infield spots. Who are you signing to be ahead of Perez at all 4 of them?


That's a very good point. I guess theoretically, it would be best to have guys in AAA ready to fill in. At 3b for example, if Shaw went down...it would be best to have Erceg ready to get called up and fill in and be better than Perez. I understand it's completely unrealistic to have a better guy at every spot. Perez will probably have to be the best backup option at SS and 2b at minimum...and possibly 3b. He'll probably be the 3rd best option at every other position besides pitcher.

There is an additional argument that Dubon will be ready to steal Perez job from him at some point this year...and Perez will be off the roster and completely replaced by Dubon to open 2020.


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