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Brandon Woodruff

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Offline  Brandon Woodruff
#1

Posted: November 27, 2018, 10:11 AM Post
Posts: 1168
How much trade value does he have? I see it vary greatly from him being the centerpiece for a really good player to being a second piece.


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Online  Re: Brandon Woodruff
#2

Posted: November 27, 2018, 10:22 AM Post
Posts: 217
Location: Washburn, WI
I see Woodruff as having quite a bit of valuable, but less value than Peralta and Burnes. He can be a centerpiece of a trade for a solid player, but a second piece for an elite player. I would slot him in as second tier value wise.


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Offline  Re: Brandon Woodruff
#3

Posted: November 27, 2018, 10:27 AM Post
Posts: 3571
Location: New Berlin, WI
wallus said:
How much trade value does he have? I see it vary greatly from him being the centerpiece for a really good player to being a second piece.


I view both him and Peralta as interchangably our 3rd best realistic trade option. Excluding guys like Yelich, Hader, Arcia, other more established MLB pieces. For me, Burnes is our best prospect/sub-1 year service time guy...followed relatively closely by Hiura. Woodruff and Peralta for me are both roughly the caliber of a top 40-50 prospect in MLB. Both I view as relatively similar value to Sheffield that went in the Paxton deal. Those 3 I think are going to be fairly interchangable in terms of value depending on which scout you talk to. Of the 3, Woodruff is the best pitcher right now...but the other 2 are a bit younger so could be better in a couple years.

A reminder that young, impact pitching is the ultimate value in baseball today. Teams are generally very hesitant to give up a elite pitching prospects in trades. I'm sure we'll see arguments that each of our pitching prospects has something to improve, but that's true of literally every pitcher in baseball. Even a guy like Degrom is probably heading into the offseason trying to figure out how he can be better.


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Offline  Re: Brandon Woodruff
#4

Posted: November 27, 2018, 11:15 AM Post
Posts: 380
I think the age difference between Peralta and Woodruff as well as their varying success going through lineups puts them on clearly different tiers. Woodruff is 4 years older and his age diminishes his prospect status. I think that's why his value to other teams will vary wildly. Some teams may think he think he tops out as a reliever while other teams still could project growth into a reliable starter. I think it would be wise to explore what the teams who are highest on Woodruff would be willing to give up for him. And if no one is all that high on BW, keep him and get 3 strong innings at a time out of him at worst.


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Offline  Re: Brandon Woodruff
#5

Posted: November 27, 2018, 11:40 AM Post
Posts: 182
True Blue Brew Crew said:
I think the age difference between Peralta and Woodruff as well as their varying success going through lineups puts them on clearly different tiers. Woodruff is 4 years older and his age diminishes his prospect status. I think that's why his value to other teams will vary wildly. Some teams may think he think he tops out as a reliever while other teams still could project growth into a reliable starter. I think it would be wise to explore what the teams who are highest on Woodruff would be willing to give up for him. And if no one is all that high on BW, keep him and get 3 strong innings at a time out of him at worst.


Couldn't have said it better myself.


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Offline  Re: Brandon Woodruff
#6

Posted: November 27, 2018, 11:48 AM Post
Posts: 3571
Location: New Berlin, WI
True Blue Brew Crew said:
I think the age difference between Peralta and Woodruff as well as their varying success going through lineups puts them on clearly different tiers. Woodruff is 4 years older and his age diminishes his prospect status. I think that's why his value to other teams will vary wildly. Some teams may think he think he tops out as a reliever while other teams still could project growth into a reliable starter. I think it would be wise to explore what the teams who are highest on Woodruff would be willing to give up for him. And if no one is all that high on BW, keep him and get 3 strong innings at a time out of him at worst.


Yeah Woodruff isn't much of a prospect at this point. He's an mlb arm, and really all 3 of those top guys are. Peralta may end up in the minors to work on things...but that will be more of an odd man out situation. For me, you are looking at 5 years of team control for Woodruff or 6 years for Peralta. Peralta probably has a bit more upside but much needs much more improvement than Woodruff to reach his ceiling. All Woodruff really NEEDS to do is maintain consistency and do what he did in Sept/Oct...and he'll be a very successful starting pitcher going forward. Much easier said than done. And again, Woodruff is the better pitcher right now based on what we saw the 2nd half last year and playoffs. There are arguments both ways, I don't think it's really fair to put them on completely different tiers though.


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Online  Re: Brandon Woodruff
#7

Posted: November 27, 2018, 11:56 AM Post
Posts: 15547
KeithStone53151 said:
True Blue Brew Crew said:
I think the age difference between Peralta and Woodruff as well as their varying success going through lineups puts them on clearly different tiers. Woodruff is 4 years older and his age diminishes his prospect status. I think that's why his value to other teams will vary wildly. Some teams may think he think he tops out as a reliever while other teams still could project growth into a reliable starter. I think it would be wise to explore what the teams who are highest on Woodruff would be willing to give up for him. And if no one is all that high on BW, keep him and get 3 strong innings at a time out of him at worst.


Yeah Woodruff isn't much of a prospect at this point. He's an mlb arm, and really all 3 of those top guys are. Peralta may end up in the minors to work on things...but that will be more of an odd man out situation. For me, you are looking at 5 years of team control for Woodruff or 6 years for Peralta. Peralta probably has a bit more upside but much needs much more improvement than Woodruff to reach his ceiling. All Woodruff really NEEDS to do is maintain consistency and do what he did in Sept/Oct...and he'll be a very successful starting pitcher going forward. Much easier said than done. And again, Woodruff is the better pitcher right now based on what we saw the 2nd half last year and playoffs. There are arguments both ways, I don't think it's really fair to put them on completely different tiers though.


Woodruff and Peralta are both controlled through 2024 at the moment (6 more seasons). Given that, I can't see how age is really any big factor in the difference between their trade value. If anything, Woodruff being more of a finished product may be more attractive to some teams especially after his postseason performance.


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Offline  Re: Brandon Woodruff
#8

Posted: November 27, 2018, 12:13 PM Post
Posts: 226
I could see Woodruff’s value being all over the board depending on team. Some teams might see a guy who’s 26 with career ERA and FIP/xFIP in the 4 range and just view him as back end roster filler/swing man role, some may think he’s a RP only that could be elite, some may think he has middle of rotation upside. I think we’d be foolish not to be gauging the market for him or Peralta and probably should cash in on one. They’re pitchers after all and both are still relatively unproven, their chance of filling our hopes of potential is less than the odds they get hurt or flame out. I’d like to flip one in to more of a know quantity and proven starter.


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Offline  Re: Brandon Woodruff
#9

Posted: November 27, 2018, 12:34 PM Post
Posts: 490
True Blue Brew Crew said:
I think the age difference between Peralta and Woodruff as well as their varying success going through lineups puts them on clearly different tiers. Woodruff is 4 years older and his age diminishes his prospect status. I think that's why his value to other teams will vary wildly. Some teams may think he think he tops out as a reliever while other teams still could project growth into a reliable starter. I think it would be wise to explore what the teams who are highest on Woodruff would be willing to give up for him. And if no one is all that high on BW, keep him and get 3 strong innings at a time out of him at worst.
Peralta is an undersized RH with fringe velocity who has never walked less than 10% in any meaningful sample size. After July his ERA was over 5 and his walk rate was 13%. No one knows how his deceptive delivery will play once MLB adjustment period is over. There are certainly a reasonable probability that he becomes a productive major leaguer that make him valuable, but he has warts that will not be fixed with age.
Woodruff may not be a prospect but his future performance is volatile with to me a greater probability of becoming a productive big leaguer. He has no significant warts in his arsenal or build. Woodruff’s 2018 including postseason is 11.0 K/9 2.8 BB/9 .68 HR/9 in 54.2 innings. Woodruff needs to show he can get MLB hitters out at cruising speed, but nothing in his MiLB track record says he cannot. I think the new found confidence that he can get the best MLB lineups out in short stints will translate over.
To answer the original question, Id put his value at somewhere around $45 million, but that is probably higher than most would go.


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Offline  Re: Brandon Woodruff
#10

Posted: November 27, 2018, 12:38 PM Post
Posts: 380
ZBTMP said:
There are certainly a reasonable probability that he becomes a productive major leaguer that make him valuable, but he has warts that will not be fixed with age.


Lol, control is the only thing holding him back from being completely dominant. You're definitively saying a 22 year old with MLB success under his belt can't fix that as he progresses? I'll continue listening to the scout.


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Offline  Re: Brandon Woodruff
#11

Posted: November 27, 2018, 12:41 PM Post
Posts: 226
ZBTMP said:
True Blue Brew Crew said:
I think the age difference between Peralta and Woodruff as well as their varying success going through lineups puts them on clearly different tiers. Woodruff is 4 years older and his age diminishes his prospect status. I think that's why his value to other teams will vary wildly. Some teams may think he think he tops out as a reliever while other teams still could project growth into a reliable starter. I think it would be wise to explore what the teams who are highest on Woodruff would be willing to give up for him. And if no one is all that high on BW, keep him and get 3 strong innings at a time out of him at worst.
Peralta is an undersized RH with fringe velocity who has never walked less than 10% in any meaningful sample size. After July his ERA was over 5 and his walk rate was 13%. No one knows how his deceptive delivery will play once MLB adjustment period is over. There are certainly a reasonable probability that he becomes a productive major leaguer that make him valuable, but he has warts that will not be fixed with age.
Woodruff may not be a prospect but his future performance is volatile with to me a greater probability of becoming a productive big leaguer. He has no significant warts in his arsenal or build. Woodruff’s 2018 including postseason is 11.0 K/9 2.8 BB/9 .68 HR/9 in 54.2 innings. Woodruff needs to show he can get MLB hitters out at cruising speed, but nothing in his MiLB track record says he cannot. I think the new found confidence that he can get the best MLB lineups out in short stints will translate over.
To answer the original question, Id put his value at somewhere around $45 million, but that is probably higher than most would go.

This is how I look at it pretty much between Woodruff and Peralta. Woodruff has the safer floor since at the least he can be a productive bullpen arm but might lack ceiling as a SP since he’s struggled there. Peralta has a higher bust chance (personally I don’t like him a ton long term for a lot of the reasons you outlined, fringe velo, walk rates, etc) but he might have a little higher ceiling if he can stick as a SP that can go 170-200 innings at 3.5-3.75 era for a few years in his prime. It’s why I’d lean trading Peralta now for a proven SP and let someone dream on his SP potential and keep Woodruff for the bullpen role since that helps us win now.


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Online  Re: Brandon Woodruff
#12

Posted: November 27, 2018, 12:44 PM Post
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True Blue Brew Crew said:
ZBTMP said:
There are certainly a reasonable probability that he becomes a productive major leaguer that make him valuable, but he has warts that will not be fixed with age.


Lol, control is the only thing holding him back from being completely dominant. You're definitively saying a 22 year old with MLB success under his belt can't fix that as he progresses? I'll continue listening to the scout.


A reminder that it is OK to disagree about a prospect. Please do so respectfully.

"Dustin Pedroia doesn't have the strength or bat speed to hit major-league pitching consistently, and he has no power......He probably has a future as a backup infielder if he can stop rolling over to third base and shortstop." Keith Law, 2006


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Offline  Re: Brandon Woodruff
#13

Posted: November 27, 2018, 12:55 PM Post
Posts: 3524
Location: Madison, WI
True Blue Brew Crew said:
ZBTMP said:
There are certainly a reasonable probability that he becomes a productive major leaguer that make him valuable, but he has warts that will not be fixed with age.


Lol, control is the only thing holding him back from being completely dominant. You're definitively saying a 22 year old with MLB success under his belt can't fix that as he progresses? I'll continue listening to the scout.


you don't think being undersized and only having a low 90s FB would qualify as warts or potential issues?


Last edited by tmwiese55 on November 27, 2018, 1:04 PM, edited 1 time in total.

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Offline  Re: Brandon Woodruff
#14

Posted: November 27, 2018, 12:55 PM Post
Posts: 490
True Blue Brew Crew said:
ZBTMP said:
There are certainly a reasonable probability that he becomes a productive major leaguer that make him valuable, but he has warts that will not be fixed with age.


Lol, control is the only thing holding him back from being completely dominant. You're definitively saying a 22 year old with MLB success under his belt can't fix that as he progresses? I'll continue listening to the scout.

Please name another “completely dominant” sub 6’ RH with 90 MPH average fastball. BB isn't the only thing he cant fix. I suppose Pedro during points in his career but that wasn’t with a 70%+ fastball usage.
Can I ask which scout you are listening to or what prospect list has Peralta as a top 50 prospect?


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Offline  Re: Brandon Woodruff
#15

Posted: November 27, 2018, 1:12 PM Post
Posts: 3571
Location: New Berlin, WI
tmwiese55 said:
True Blue Brew Crew said:
ZBTMP said:
There are certainly a reasonable probability that he becomes a productive major leaguer that make him valuable, but he has warts that will not be fixed with age.


Lol, control is the only thing holding him back from being completely dominant. You're definitively saying a 22 year old with MLB success under his belt can't fix that as he progresses? I'll continue listening to the scout.


you don't think being undersized and only having a low 90s FB would qualify as warts or potential issues?


I'll add that Peralta doesn't really throw his changeup at the mlb level. That pitch probably comes around in time, but who knows how much time and how good the offering will be. I understand his fastball has a lot of variability and is probably 2 pitches...but the list of quality mlb starters that throw different variations of fastball and a curve is extremely short. Kluber is the only one I can think of, maybe Arrieta in his first 2 seasons in Chicago as well.

Size, velocity, control, effort in delivery, and lack of changeup are his warts. With all that, I still like Peralta quite a bit and I've said I think his ceiling is probably beyond what Woodruff could be. I just think overall their values are probably close because Woodruff is better right now and probably will be for 1-2 years minimum...and he could permanently be better if Peralta doesn't fully develop as we hope.


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Offline  Re: Brandon Woodruff
#16

Posted: November 27, 2018, 1:56 PM Post
Posts: 226
True Blue Brew Crew said:
ZBTMP said:
There are certainly a reasonable probability that he becomes a productive major leaguer that make him valuable, but he has warts that will not be fixed with age.


Lol, control is the only thing holding him back from being completely dominant. You're definitively saying a 22 year old with MLB success under his belt can't fix that as he progresses? I'll continue listening to the scout.

He absolutely could improve his control. But it’s usually one of those things you either have or don’t and we have a pretty good track record of him never really having it when he’s logged significant innings anywhere.


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Offline  Re: Brandon Woodruff
#17

Posted: November 27, 2018, 5:36 PM Post
Posts: 380
CrewFanBrewMan69 said:
True Blue Brew Crew said:
ZBTMP said:
There are certainly a reasonable probability that he becomes a productive major leaguer that make him valuable, but he has warts that will not be fixed with age.


Lol, control is the only thing holding him back from being completely dominant. You're definitively saying a 22 year old with MLB success under his belt can't fix that as he progresses? I'll continue listening to the scout.

He absolutely could improve his control. But it’s usually one of those things you either have or don’t and we have a pretty good track record of him never really having it when he’s logged significant innings anywhere.


He was able to repeat levels once in his rapid ascent through the minors and his BB/9 went from 4.2 down to 1.9. And control is a trait that is very commonly improved upon.

As for the size and velocity "warts" that has been addressed countless times on this forum by myself and others, Peralta has off the scales extension which makes his low 90's fastball get on to hitters like that of a mid 90's fastball. He hides the ball well and he's also 22 so there's a definite window to add a few ticks to that fastball which already was being clocked at 94-95 on occasion at the end of this season.

It's obvious at this point that many here are just going to have see it for themselves before it's proven what this kid is capable of. I'm very much looking forward to that time.


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Offline  Re: Brandon Woodruff
#18

Posted: November 27, 2018, 6:43 PM Post
Posts: 3571
Location: New Berlin, WI
True Blue, how many starters at the mlb level succeed with multiple versions of a fastball and a slow curve? The changeup is still a question you haven't addressed. I get he's still young, but he's doesn't project to add much if any velocity. He's small and already has a lot of effort in his delivery... which you haven't addressed as a wart that impacts repeatability of mechanics and therefore command. I get his low 90s plays up to mid 90s for a variety of reasons and that's solid, but not really enough if that and the curve is all else you have. Basically he'll be the next kluber or he darn well better develop that change.


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Offline  Re: Brandon Woodruff
#19

Posted: November 27, 2018, 8:20 PM Post
Posts: 380
KeithStone53151 said:
True Blue, how many starters at the mlb level succeed with multiple versions of a fastball and a slow curve? The changeup is still a question you haven't addressed. I get he's still young, but he's doesn't project to add much if any velocity. He's small and already has a lot of effort in his delivery... which you haven't addressed as a wart that impacts repeatability of mechanics and therefore command. I get his low 90s plays up to mid 90s for a variety of reasons and that's solid, but not really enough if that and the curve is all else you have. Basically he'll be the next kluber or he darn well better develop that change.


I've addressed this many times. The change he's working on would be the equivalent of a 4th pitch. When you throw two different acting fastballs in near equal doses and mix in a curve that's your 3 pitches. He's shown in the majors the ability to go through a lineup 3 times. In fact his numbers improved the deeper he went. He's such a misunderstood prospect because (and I'll repeat myself again) people fail to understand what his absurd extension adds to his velocity. When you watch it overhead in slow-mo it doesn't even look human. Throw out his height because his release point is that of pitchers half a foot taller. His 4 seam cutter is his low 90s fastball with a spin rate among MLB leaders. That's the one with the ridiculous movement. His traditional 4 seamer has rising action and has started to top out in the mid 90's at 22 years old. The extreme extension adds a measured 2+mph equivalent to the batter so 90 becomes 92 and 95 becomes 97. At some point people are going to have to start remembering these things. I don't say that directly to you or in any negative way. It's very clear that people are going off basic measureables but for some reason completely ignoring his statistical profile. He unlike Woodruff has had tremendous numbers multiple times through. And his BAA was near the league lead as well. He was up there with Snell, Sale, and Scherzer. He is an absolute anomaly. Which is why he's so misunderstood and undervalued no doubt. Thankfully the Brewers know what they have.


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Offline  Re: Brandon Woodruff
#20

Posted: November 28, 2018, 7:22 AM Post
Posts: 701
Cardinal Rule of MLB GMs....Never trade young pithing.

We are in such a good position for long term pitching success, lets's not mess it up. If we are trading young pitchers it needs to be someone like Davies who is entering arby soon.


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