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Trevor Bauer

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Offline  Re: Trevor Bauer
#21

Posted: December 09, 2018, 11:01 AM Post
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mlloyd10 said:
Didn't the guy who nailed the moose trade say that talks have intensified?

Yes, the link to the tweet you’re referencing is included at the bottom of the initial Trevor Bauer post.

For those that have not clicked on it, the exact wording is:”Hearing brewers are in intense talks for Trevor Bauer. They’ve called about Kluber but they demand Keston.

As others have pointed out it’s best to take every rumor with a grain of salt, but it did at least come from someone who was acknowledged by Rosenthal for getting the specific details of the Moustakas trade correct hours before the national media.


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Offline  Re: Trevor Bauer
#22

Posted: December 09, 2018, 11:02 AM Post
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JosephC said:
Just cranking the numbers, Bauer's trade value isn't as high as I would have expected.

Average annual fWAR/bWAR over the last three seasons is 3.9. So that's 7.8 wins over 2 years. 7.8 X 9.25 = 72.15 million. He's projected to make 11.6 million in arbitration this year, and then let's say 15 million for next year. 72.15 - 26.6 = 45.55 million in surplus value.

Obviously he would demand much more if the Indian's could get strictly his 2018 value back where he was a 6 WAR pitcher. But I don't think it would push that high on the market. I'm using 3.9 WAR for each of the next two years. Steamer projects him for 4.0 WAR in 2019. I think the majority of MLB teams would value him right around 8 WAR total for the next two years. Fair surplus value estimate in the 45-50 million range. I'd be impressed if the Indians got anything significantly over 60 million in surplus value.

I think Hiura grades high enough where he prices himself out of this trade. Burnes is a reasonable starting point. I'd put Burnes' surplus value at around 33 million and Ray's surplus value at around 19 million. I would think that just those two would be a more than fair offer for Bauer.

Always look forward to your player valuation posts, thanks for sharing!


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Offline  Re: Trevor Bauer
#23

Posted: December 09, 2018, 11:39 AM Post
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Is there a place to see surplus trade values of the Brewer players. Thanks.


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Offline  Re: Trevor Bauer
#24

Posted: December 09, 2018, 12:01 PM Post
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I'll argue forever that burnes is more valuable than hiura at this point. I don't think either should be included in trade. I wonder if santana plus ray or brown plus some lesser pieces would be enough.


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Offline  Re: Trevor Bauer
#25

Posted: December 09, 2018, 12:26 PM Post
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I wouldn't question that. I think they are close, but burnes is a pitcher and has already shown it in the majors.

reillymcshane said:
Remember what Yoda said:

"Cubs lead to Cardinals. Cardinals lead to dislike. Dislike leads to hate. Hate leads to constipation."


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Offline  Re: Trevor Bauer
#26

Posted: December 09, 2018, 12:36 PM Post
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I'm not a huge fan of Bauer and have long been blocked by him on Twitter [laughing] but all the same he would be a huge addition to the team.

Burnes/Santana seems totally fair to me. Throwing in Ray seems unnecessary.

The only reason I question our interest is that Bauer would have seemed like an ideal Stearns target before 2018. I think Stearns would prefer to target already valuable players who are about to breakout even further, like Yelich, rather than a guy coming off Cy Young type season.


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Offline  Re: Trevor Bauer
#27

Posted: December 09, 2018, 12:37 PM Post
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(And if the front office thinks Burnes is too valuable to trade like many on here, then he'd better be in the rotation this season. Stop wasting his limited team control in the bullpen.)


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Offline  Re: Trevor Bauer
#28

Posted: December 09, 2018, 1:22 PM Post
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SRB said:
(And if the front office thinks Burnes is too valuable to trade like many on here, then he'd better be in the rotation this season. Stop wasting his limited team control in the bullpen.)


I’d hardly call his 2/3rds of a season in the bullpen a waste. He was much needed and a valuable part of how and what they accomplished.


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Offline  Re: Trevor Bauer
#29

Posted: December 09, 2018, 1:55 PM Post
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Outside the box idea here but the Indians have a big hole at catcher and have always valued defensive catchers. Wonder if including Manny Pina in a package for Bauer moves the needle at all for the Indians, obviously he's not a center piece. I'm more than happy to include Nottingham in the trade but dont think he really fits what the Indians look for at catcher.

Love Bauer's game. He's a known weirdo and different on twitter so that rubs people the wrong way, but you can't question his work ethic when it comes to making himself the best pitcher he can possibly be.

Indians looking for OF/RP/C from my rough look at their roster. Asking price should rightfully be high but I think when all is said and done the price will look close to what the Astros gave up for Cole.


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Offline  Re: Trevor Bauer
#30

Posted: December 09, 2018, 4:22 PM Post
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Would love Bauer or Kluber, if could get either without giving up Hiura, I'm in. If Hiura has to be included, I'm out.

Formerly BrewCrewIn2004

@IgnitorKid


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Offline  Re: Trevor Bauer
#31

Posted: December 09, 2018, 4:49 PM Post
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Yes i agree Hiura needs to be a brewer long term


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Offline  Re: Trevor Bauer
#32

Posted: December 09, 2018, 5:01 PM Post
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amt2138 said:
Outside the box idea here but the Indians have a big hole at catcher and have always valued defensive catchers. Wonder if including Manny Pina in a package for Bauer moves the needle at all for the Indians, obviously he's not a center piece. I'm more than happy to include Nottingham in the trade but dont think he really fits what the Indians look for at catcher.

Love Bauer's game. He's a known weirdo and different on twitter so that rubs people the wrong way, but you can't question his work ethic when it comes to making himself the best pitcher he can possibly be.

Indians looking for OF/RP/C from my rough look at their roster. Asking price should rightfully be high but I think when all is said and done the price will look close to what the Astros gave up for Cole.


I don't believe the Tribe is looking for help at catcher. They still have Roberto Perez (never much with the stick) and he was the D oriented guy that worked with the Tribe staff to Gm 7 of the 2016 World Series as Gomes was injured and trying to get back to action. Their other guy Eric Haase has a solid rep behind the plate & some pop in the stick (59 homers over last 3 seasons). He also caught both no-nos for AAA Columbus in May/ June 2018 (for Bieber & Plutko)..

Yes, the Tribe is willing to deal from its starting pitching depth to address other needs of the team & in the process redistribute its contract obligations.
Bullpen is as big (if not bigger) need for the Tribe than OF. Is 3 years of Knebel alone worth 2 years of Bauer alone??
If JRam is now the Tribe 2nd baseman, Kipnis can fill LF for 1 yr (before his option gets declined). If 3 yrs of Shaw alone worth 2 yrs of Bauer alone??

I'm not suggesting either squad would make those trades but it is out of the box thinking.


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Offline  Re: Trevor Bauer
#33

Posted: December 09, 2018, 5:55 PM Post
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MadThinker88 said:

I don't believe the Tribe is looking for help at catcher. They still have Roberto Perez (never much with the stick) and he was the D oriented guy that worked with the Tribe staff to Gm 7 of the 2016 World Series as Gomes was injured and trying to get back to action. Their other guy Eric Haase has a solid rep behind the plate & some pop in the stick (59 homers over last 3 seasons). He also caught both no-nos for AAA Columbus in May/ June 2018 (for Bieber & Plutko)..

Yes, the Tribe is willing to deal from its starting pitching depth to address other needs of the team & in the process redistribute its contract obligations.
Bullpen is as big (if not bigger) need for the Tribe than OF. Is 3 years of Knebel alone worth 2 years of Bauer alone??
If JRam is now the Tribe 2nd baseman, Kipnis can fill LF for 1 yr (before his option gets declined). If 3 yrs of Shaw alone worth 2 yrs of Bauer alone??

I'm not suggesting either squad would make those trades but it is out of the box thinking.


Thank you I was not at all familiar with Haase but knew they are very comfortable with Perez. Quick look at the offensive stats showed me it might have been a hole. Really interesting thought on trading from the bullpen. I definitely think these two teams match up really well for a trade.


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Offline  Re: Trevor Bauer
#34

Posted: December 09, 2018, 6:05 PM Post
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ThisIsMyCrew said:
SRB said:
(And if the front office thinks Burnes is too valuable to trade like many on here, then he'd better be in the rotation this season. Stop wasting his limited team control in the bullpen.)


I’d hardly call his 2/3rds of a season in the bullpen a waste. He was much needed and a valuable part of how and what they accomplished.


Not my point...

He's already had success in the majors in 2018, so going into 2019 he needs to be in the rotation from the start.


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Offline  Re: Trevor Bauer
#35

Posted: December 09, 2018, 6:33 PM Post
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Brewers have said repeatly he will be moving back to rotation..... only way he doesn’t is if he has a Woodruff type bad Spring Training & actually Brewers still rolled with Woody regardless last season out of the gate... I don’t know why people have doubts about him being in rotation. Can’t compare to Hader since most scouts thought he’d be moved to pen and he quickly proved to be at an elite level. His value was just higher to team there. Burnes was simply in pen to get MLB innings & there was no need for him in rotation


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Offline  Re: Trevor Bauer
#36

Posted: December 09, 2018, 6:35 PM Post
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Bauer
Chacin
Nelson
Burnes
Woody/Peralta

Could be nice! Not too mention adds flexibility to move Davies or Anderson


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Offline  Re: Trevor Bauer
#37

Posted: December 09, 2018, 7:03 PM Post
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YoungGeezy1 said:
Bauer
Chacin
Nelson
Burnes
Woody/Peralta

Could be nice! Not too mention adds flexibility to move Davies or Anderson


I would take Nelson out of the projected rotation until we actually know he can still pitch.


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Offline  Re: Trevor Bauer
#38

Posted: December 09, 2018, 7:16 PM Post
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agreed, can't count on Nelson in any way until we see some action.


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Offline  Re: Trevor Bauer
#39

Posted: December 09, 2018, 8:16 PM Post
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turborickey said:
agreed, can't count on Nelson in any way until we see some action.


Goes back to value of having Anderson & Davies as well


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Offline  Re: Trevor Bauer
#40

Posted: December 09, 2018, 8:57 PM Post
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Location: Madison, WI
Joey Meyer Bombs said:
If both are on the table for similar relative packages, I'd rather have Realmuto than Bauer. But Bauer would be the legit #1 pitcher this team is lacking.


I have to agree. More and more I'm buying into what appears to be a Stearns philosophy to not make major investments in pitching.


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