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Trevor Bauer

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Offline  Re: Trevor Bauer
#41

Posted: December 09, 2018, 9:25 PM Post
Posts: 2177
I think price for Realmuto would be too high & for sure Huira or Burnes.... they will get that level talent from someone. Thing I love about Bauer beside you can probably get it done minus either of those guys is that he has grown & improved every year. Each season walks have continued to drop & Ks have continued to climb. He has really started to harness his power stuff. Having a true frontline guy is something we have missed since Greinke


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Online  Re: Trevor Bauer
#42

Posted: December 09, 2018, 9:27 PM Post
Posts: 1506
Anyone else a little concerned that he plays in the worst division by far in MLB? (inflated stats)


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Offline  Re: Trevor Bauer
#43

Posted: December 09, 2018, 9:33 PM Post
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i don't see what DS has planned this offseason but sure he will make some moves to help this team.


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Offline  Re: Trevor Bauer
#44

Posted: December 10, 2018, 12:10 AM Post
Posts: 2661
wallus said:
Anyone else a little concerned that he plays in the worst division by far in MLB? (inflated stats)

It's a point worth noting but I think he's still a heck of a pitcher who, at minimum, had a very unspectacular-hitting OF behind him.


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Offline  Re: Trevor Bauer
#45

Posted: December 10, 2018, 2:19 AM Post
Posts: 92
Location: Baldwin, WI
I can't get over the one year wonder hang up. I still can't even fathom Corbin getting the money and term that he got, so on the same token I am very very hesitant to trade valuable assets for Bauer. Am I crazy for this?


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Offline  Re: Trevor Bauer
#46

Posted: December 10, 2018, 9:03 AM Post
Posts: 486
wallus said:
Anyone else a little concerned that he plays in the worst division by far in MLB? (inflated stats)


Inter league last year - 4 games 0.33 ERA


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Offline  Re: Trevor Bauer
#47

Posted: December 10, 2018, 9:06 PM Post
Posts: 554
Location: Milwaukee
sveumrules said:
With two years left, the package shouldn't be too far off what Paxton brought.

Hiura/Burnes would definitely be off the table for me. Highest I'd go is probably same as I would for a Realmuto package, their pick of Woodruff/Peralta plus Ray & a low level flier.

Nobody else on here is talking about it but yes...I agree that I think a realistic offer should be slightly better than Paxton as he's a good barometer. Their production the past several years has been relatively similar and they both have 2yrs control. Obviously Hiura isn't going for Bauer and I highly doubt 6yrs of Burnes is either. I also think Peralta/Ray in a package is already an overpay and destroys what Paxton brought back. Peralta + 2 dudes outside our Top 10 (Diplan, Supak, Houser, etc - I'd even add Broxton as a secondary piece). If we're going Peralta/Ray then I'd expect the trade to be expanded and not just Bauer


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Offline  Re: Trevor Bauer
#48

Posted: December 10, 2018, 9:10 PM Post
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Bauer was significantly better than Paxton last season and doesn't have the same injury/durability red flags. He's much more valuable in my opinion.


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Offline  Re: Trevor Bauer
#49

Posted: December 11, 2018, 8:48 AM Post
Posts: 554
Location: Milwaukee
SRB said:
Bauer was significantly better than Paxton last season and doesn't have the same injury/durability red flags. He's much more valuable in my opinion.

Sure, Bauer's 2018 was significantly better if you look at ERA(+)/FIP. But what about other numbers?

Paxton - 1.098 whip, 7.5h, 2.4bb, 11.7k, 3.02 xFIP
Bauer - 1.089 whip, 6.9h, 2.9bb, 11.3k, 3.14 xFIP

Bauer's division was *significantly worse* than Paxton's in 2018 and overall the past 3yrs. These same numbers favor Paxton in 2016/2017 as well. And Paxton's 2017 was significantly better than Bauer's across the board.

Yes, Bauer is 2yrs younger and has thrown more innings so he's more durable. It's realistic to expect him to throw 175 innings because that's what he's done in 3 of the past 4yrs whereas with Paxton you're expecting he's hitting his 2018 at minimum because that's what he's coming off of and he's thrown more and more innings as the years go by. But I don't believe that trumps production to the point there's a *significant* difference. I said Bauer's return should be slightly better than Paxton's and I thought that because he's coming off his 2018 and he can be expected to throw 175 innings. But his past 3yrs aren't better than Paxton's as a whole so the return should still be in the greater ballpark of each other.

That's why I go back to what I initially posted - Peralta/Ray is already a significant upgrade over the Paxton trade and a significant upgrade isn't warranted based on history. I think it can be easily argued that Peralta is a better/more valuable player than Justus (at this point). And Ray destroys the other two dudes. It's just not even in the same ballpark. I'm not saying Peralta/Ray don't go there I'm saying if they do there should be something else coming back with Bauer.


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Offline  Re: Trevor Bauer
#50

Posted: June 06, 2019, 3:27 PM Post
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I'm bumping this thread because speculation is growing once again that the Indians may look to trade Bauer before the July 31st deadline.

Bauer is a player I am conflicted about whether I would even want the Brewers to pursue, but I think he would provide a consistent anchor within the rotation for the next 1.5 seasons. I think the cost would be something along the lines of Burnes and Turang. Would be curious to hear if others consider him a feasible or even a desirable trade target?


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Offline  Re: Trevor Bauer
#51

Posted: June 06, 2019, 9:02 PM Post
Posts: 498
Eye Black said:
I'm bumping this thread because speculation is growing once again that the Indians may look to trade Bauer before the July 31st deadline.

Bauer is a player I am conflicted about whether I would even want the Brewers to pursue, but I think he would provide a consistent anchor within the rotation for the next 1.5 seasons. I think the cost would be something along the lines of Burnes and Turang. Would be curious to hear if others consider him a feasible or even a desirable trade target?


Yes Please! Boy, I'd hate to give up on Burnes, as I still think there is so much potential there, but we need a guy like Bauer that can lead the rotation for a year and a half and give us a couple of opportunities for a title. It's really unfortunate that Zack Brown isn't having a good year, because it would have been great to put together a package of Brown, Turang, Ashby - which might have helped us hold onto Burnes.


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Offline  Re: Trevor Bauer
#52

Posted: June 06, 2019, 9:02 PM Post
Posts: 498
Eye Black said:
I'm bumping this thread because speculation is growing once again that the Indians may look to trade Bauer before the July 31st deadline.

Bauer is a player I am conflicted about whether I would even want the Brewers to pursue, but I think he would provide a consistent anchor within the rotation for the next 1.5 seasons. I think the cost would be something along the lines of Burnes and Turang. Would be curious to hear if others consider him a feasible or even a desirable trade target?


Yes Please! Boy, I'd hate to give up on Burnes, as I still think there is so much potential there, but we need a guy like Bauer that can lead the rotation for a year and a half and give us a couple of opportunities for a title. It's really unfortunate that Zack Brown isn't having a good year, because it would have been great to put together a package of Brown, Turang, Ashby - which might have helped us hold onto Burnes.


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Offline  Re: Trevor Bauer
#53

Posted: June 08, 2019, 5:32 PM Post
Posts: 1649
Location: Madison, WI
Bauer normally hangs around 3 bWAR/fWAR, but he was nearly a 6 WAR player in 2018 and that's such recent history that it has to be figured into the math. Pro-rate 2019 over a full season, and then add in 2017 and 2018, and he's an annual 3.9 WAR player and that's probably a pretty fair number. That would make him worth 6.3 WAR total for the remainder of this year and next. That's 56.7 million in total value. He'll probably make something like 26 million so surplus value should be right in the area of 30-31 million. I'd put Turang's surplus value at 20.9 million as a back end top 100 hitter. IMO including Burnes along with Turang would be an overpay for Milwaukee. I don't think madtownhawk's suggestion of Turang + Brown + Ashby is out of line at all. I thought some of the lists that stuck Brown in the top 100 last off-season were a bit over optimistic, but even with the poor start this year I'd have him as a top 300 pitcher and would probably put a surplus value of 8 million on him. Ashby holds rock solid "role-player prospect" value at 5.5 million. So I'd have the Turang + Brown + Ashby surplus value at 34.4 million...slightly higher than the Bauer's surplus value at 30-31 million...but they are in the same ballpark and that swap would be a reasonable one IMO. All comes down to what kind of upside the Indian's see in Turang + Brown + Ashby. I've no doubt the Indians could land a prospect that ranks higher on the top 100 list than Turang, but let's say if they get a player that sits at #50, I'd bet the rest of the pieces would not grade as highly as Brown and Ashby.


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Offline  Re: Trevor Bauer
#54

Posted: June 08, 2019, 5:56 PM Post
Posts: 7881
Trading Burnes now is like the Dbacks trading Scherzer for Edwin Jackson.


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Offline  Re: Trevor Bauer
#55

Posted: June 08, 2019, 7:11 PM Post
Posts: 1230
Eye Black said:
I'm bumping this thread because speculation is growing once again that the Indians may look to trade Bauer before the July 31st deadline.

Bauer is a player I am conflicted about whether I would even want the Brewers to pursue, but I think he would provide a consistent anchor within the rotation for the next 1.5 seasons. I think the cost would be something along the lines of Burnes and Turang. Would be curious to hear if others consider him a feasible or even a desirable trade target?



I do not want to give up either of those guys. The Brewers don't have a great system, but if they can produce a star every couple years and then keep churning out good role players, I think they're alright for now. I think Turang could be a star at SS and Burnes...well, we've all seen how talented he is.


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Offline  Re: Trevor Bauer
#56

Posted: June 08, 2019, 7:12 PM Post
Posts: 1230
madtownhawk said:
Eye Black said:
I'm bumping this thread because speculation is growing once again that the Indians may look to trade Bauer before the July 31st deadline.

Bauer is a player I am conflicted about whether I would even want the Brewers to pursue, but I think he would provide a consistent anchor within the rotation for the next 1.5 seasons. I think the cost would be something along the lines of Burnes and Turang. Would be curious to hear if others consider him a feasible or even a desirable trade target?


Yes Please! Boy, I'd hate to give up on Burnes, as I still think there is so much potential there, but we need a guy like Bauer that can lead the rotation for a year and a half and give us a couple of opportunities for a title. It's really unfortunate that Zack Brown isn't having a good year, because it would have been great to put together a package of Brown, Turang, Ashby - which might have helped us hold onto Burnes.



I think I'd almost put Turang in the same group as Burnes as guys I don't want to see touched. It's a very small list. Hiura and Turang in the minors and most of the young guys in the bigs.


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Online  Re: Trevor Bauer
#57

Posted: June 08, 2019, 8:27 PM Post
Posts: 1980
Turang & Brown & Ashby > Bauer

I would do this deal. Turang will be a quality SS in the big leagues, so that will hurt but the others can easily be replaced and Bauer is a horse with great stuff, and with him having a off year so far, we could probably get him for a package close to aforementioned.

Bauer Woodruff Nelson Davies > good playoff starters to go with a dominant pen gives us a real chance to win it.

Then next year:

Bauer Woodruff Nelson Burnes/Anderson Peralta Houser Rasmussen Wilkerson = Championship caliber rotation.

Sell high on Davies.


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Offline  Re: Trevor Bauer
#58

Posted: June 09, 2019, 7:46 AM Post
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Brew crew 92 said:
Turang & Brown & Ashby > Bauer

I would do this deal.


But I doubt very much that the Indians do. If they would, I'd certainly be on board.


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Online  Re: Trevor Bauer
#59

Posted: June 09, 2019, 8:08 AM Post
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Posts: 7328
Brew crew 92 said:
Turang & Brown & Ashby > Bauer

I would do this deal. Turang will be a quality SS in the big leagues, so that will hurt but the others can easily be replaced and Bauer is a horse with great stuff, and with him having a off year so far, we could probably get him for a package close to aforementioned.

Bauer Woodruff Nelson Davies > good playoff starters to go with a dominant pen gives us a real chance to win it.

Then next year:

Bauer Woodruff Nelson Burnes/Anderson Peralta Houser Rasmussen Wilkerson = Championship caliber rotation.

Sell high on Davies.


Why in the world would the Brewers make the unfathomably idiotic move of trading Davies? He's been their best pitcher, and is cost controlled for several more seasons. You don't ever give up solid cost-controlled pitching. EVER. I don't care you you think you have in your rotation has the potential to be better. Davies has been dang near the best starter in baseball this year.

For a guy who keeps on harping that the Brewers need to bring up Wilkerson despite his below-average "stuff", it makes no sense to me that you want to deal off a guy with a very similar arsenal of pitches, but is actually doing it at the highest level.


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Online  Re: Trevor Bauer
#60

Posted: June 09, 2019, 8:23 AM Post
Posts: 1980
Joey Meyer Bombs said:
Brew crew 92 said:
Turang & Brown & Ashby > Bauer

I would do this deal. Turang will be a quality SS in the big leagues, so that will hurt but the others can easily be replaced and Bauer is a horse with great stuff, and with him having a off year so far, we could probably get him for a package close to aforementioned.

Bauer Woodruff Nelson Davies > good playoff starters to go with a dominant pen gives us a real chance to win it.

Then next year:

Bauer Woodruff Nelson Burnes/Anderson Peralta Houser Rasmussen Wilkerson = Championship caliber rotation.

Sell high on Davies.


Why in the world would the Brewers make the unfathomably idiotic move of trading Davies? He's been their best pitcher, and is cost controlled for several more seasons. You don't ever give up solid cost-controlled pitching. EVER. I don't care you you think you have in your rotation has the potential to be better. Davies has been dang near the best starter in baseball this year.

For a guy who keeps on harping that the Brewers need to bring up Wilkerson despite his below-average "stuff", it makes no sense to me that you want to deal off a guy with a very similar arsenal of pitches, but is actually doing it at the highest level.


We trade him for 2 reasons:

1.) his value will never be higher and the prospects we could get for him helps this team more than keeping him.

2.) with Bauer Nelson Anderson Peralta Burnes Houser Wilkerson (potential FA signing) Rasmussen > that’s 9 deep, good coverage.


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