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The next Jhoulys Chacin or Wade Miley?

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Online  The next Jhoulys Chacin or Wade Miley?
#1

Posted: December 12, 2018, 8:45 AM Post
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While the Brewers are in a better spot starting pitching-wise this offseason than they were last year, I wonder if they may be targeting another Chacin or Miley-type signing - i.e. a pitcher in his theoretical prime years who is coming off either a solid but not overwhelming showing, or was bad last year but has been successful for long stretches in the past. I think that Chacin was overlooked on the free agent market last year, and fortunately Stearns and the Brewers front office was able to identify him as a durable starter who fit their pitching philosophy well. Miley was simply a flyer I think who maybe was identified by Derek Johnson or someone in the front office as a bounce-back candidate. I think there are several pitchers on the market this year who fall into both categories:

1. Kendall Graveman - RHP - Only 27 years old, and put up solid numbers for the A's somewhat recently.
2. Drew Pomeranz - LHP - Was terrific for the Red Sox in 2017, and is only 30 years old. Fought injuries last year.
3. Shelby Miller - RHP - Was once the next big thing for the Cardinals. Has fought injury lately, but is still only 28.
4. Martin Perez - LHP - Nice buy-low candidate, as he was a durable starter for the Rangers in 2016-17. Only 28 years old.
5. Matt Shoemaker - RHP - Hasn't been able to recapture his early career success for the Angels. A little older at 32.
6. Jeremy Hellickson - RHP - Great in his early career with Tampa, and has settled in as a durable innings eater since. 32 years old
7. Trevor Cahill - RHP - Not a world beater, but had solid numbers last year. 31 years old.

All of these guys should be very affordable and could provide solid depth. It's hard to see many open spots in the rotation unless they trade guys like Anderson, Davies or some of the younger guys, but I wouldn't be surprised if they take a flyer or one of them. Personally I'd love to see Pomeranz sign a affordable 2-3 year deal in Milwaukee.


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#2

Posted: December 12, 2018, 9:17 AM Post
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I don't know free agent pitchers enough but who are pitchers who have a really good pitch they don't use enough? That seemed like the Chacin and Miley strategy


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#3

Posted: December 12, 2018, 9:22 AM Post
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Pomeranz's best pitch is his knuckle-curve, which would work quite nicely I think in Milwaukee. He also has a cutter he's thrown well in the past, and a decent change.


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#4

Posted: December 12, 2018, 9:23 AM Post
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The focus seems to be more on TOR at this point. They have underappreciated starters for now.

If they end up trading one or two of their current starters, I could see a guy like James Shields being a depth option. His ERA from last year is somewhat misleading. White Sox left him in games a lot longer than Brewers would in the NL. His numbers were pretty good. He is prone to the long ball though.

Pomeranz has a track record of past success and like Miley, he fights a hit walk rate. I think it will take a major league contract but he's a guy to keep an eye on.

Definite no on Perez.


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#5

Posted: December 12, 2018, 10:03 AM Post
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Unless there are some trades made, I don't see the Brewers adding a Chacin-type player this off season UNLESS he is left-handed.

Reports indicate the Crew has been linked to higher end starters (such as Thor) or left handers (Miley, Kluber, Happ, etc.).

Adding a left handed starter makes sense for the team as all our starters are righties.

Anderson, Davies, Chacin, Peralta, Woodruff, Burnes, Nelson, Guerra - there's little reason add a lower end right handed starter into this mix.

In the end, I'm betting Miley comes back on a 2-year deal for around $15M. Just a wild guess. He seemed to fit into clubhouse well, and provided good production.

But before we add a Miley, the team will likely pursue the higher end arms in the FA and trade market. If none of those options work out - then we'll go to the lower tier of players such as Miley or Gio on a one or two year deal.

The club may also bring a veteran arm on a minor league contract - but nothing guaranteed.


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#6

Posted: December 12, 2018, 10:05 AM Post
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Nate Karns is a guy that is really interesting to me. Missed all of last year so that is a scary proposition right off the bat. His curveball is an absolute weapon when it is on and he has averaged over a strikeout per inning in recent years. You can go back and look at certain games when he is on, he has the stuff to be a really good starting pitcher. Health and inconsistency have always gotten him though.

Another injured Royals pitcher I'd keep an eye on is Kyle Zimmer. The guy never was able to find any sort of health but after the Royals sent him to Driveline during the season he reported throwing pain free for the first time in his career. I would imagine the Royals have the inside track on signing him, but wouldn't mind a minor league contract with an invite to camp sort of incentive laden deal if reports are good.


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#7

Posted: December 12, 2018, 12:52 PM Post
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I would think the Brewers would have some interest in Keuchel not really a Chacin type but contact pitchers seem to be at a market deficiency now.


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#8

Posted: December 12, 2018, 4:04 PM Post
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jjfanec said:
I don't know free agent pitchers enough but who are pitchers who have a really good pitch they don't use enough? That seemed like the Chacin and Miley strategy


Guerra's use of the curveball down the stretch and Anibal Sanchez' revitalization with his cutter are the two that come to mind. One we already have on the roster and the other could be signed for less than Chacin was.


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#9

Posted: December 12, 2018, 4:05 PM Post
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ebmackenzie said:
jjfanec said:
I don't know free agent pitchers enough but who are pitchers who have a really good pitch they don't use enough? That seemed like the Chacin and Miley strategy


Guerra's use of the curveball down the stretch and Anibal Sanchez' revitalization with his cutter are the two that come to mind. One we already have on the roster and the other could be signed for less than Chacin was.


Sanchez is projected to get much more than we signed Chacin for....


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#10

Posted: December 12, 2018, 4:10 PM Post
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reillymcshane said:
Unless there are some trades made, I don't see the Brewers adding a Chacin-type player this off season UNLESS he is left-handed.

Reports indicate the Crew has been linked to higher end starters (such as Thor) or left handers (Miley, Kluber, Happ, etc.).

Adding a left handed starter makes sense for the team as all our starters are righties.


What about a starter that carried a 1.083 WHIP with an .573 OPS vs LH hitters over 235 ABs? Does he have to be a lefty or just get lefties out?


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#11

Posted: December 12, 2018, 6:27 PM Post
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I think Brett Anderson is a guy who will be underpriced and could put up an out of nowhere season for us. Plus he's a lefty.


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#12

Posted: December 12, 2018, 10:59 PM Post
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Brett Anderson is broken.

But I guess I thought the same of Miley a year ago.

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Posted: December 12, 2018, 11:03 PM Post
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A Swing and A Drive said:
Brett Anderson is broken.

But I guess I thought the same of Miley a year ago.

Yeah, I couldn't believe we were messing with Miley. You just never know sometimes.


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Online  Re: The next Jhoulys Chacin or Wade Miley?
#14

Posted: December 13, 2018, 1:17 AM Post
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If he's healthy I'll throw out Clay Buchholz as a guy that can probably be had for cheap on a one year deal.

Put up a 2.01 ERA over 16 starts/98 innings with the Diamondbacks last year before being shut down with a forearm strain in September. His FIP of 3.47 wasn't quite as impressive, but was still 15% better than league average.

Last I could find was he got a PRP injection & expects to be ready for spring training.


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#15

Posted: December 13, 2018, 10:46 AM Post
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JohnBriggs12 said:
The focus seems to be more on TOR at this point. They have underappreciated starters for now.

If they end up trading one or two of their current starters, I could see a guy like James Shields being a depth option. His ERA from last year is somewhat misleading. White Sox left him in games a lot longer than Brewers would in the NL. His numbers were pretty good. He is prone to the long ball though.

Pomeranz has a track record of past success and like Miley, he fights a hit walk rate. I think it will take a major league contract but he's a guy to keep an eye on.

Definite no on Perez.


2.57 ERA and 1.215 WHIP points to a TOR-type to me.

TOR types come four ways:
1. You have a home-grown talent who simply dominates via his stuff.
2. You trade for somebody who simply dominates via his stuff.
3. You sign somebody who simply dominates via his stuff as a free agent.
4. You are able to take a pitcher, and maybe make a tweak or two (throw pitch B more often or fix a mindset), and take his performance up to higher levels than before.

Miley was a TOR starter acquired the fourth way.


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Offline  Re: The next Jhoulys Chacin or Wade Miley?
#16

Posted: December 22, 2018, 10:21 AM Post
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You don't think MKE would take a shot at Homer, now that he's loose, hoping to fix him?


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#17

Posted: December 22, 2018, 5:27 PM Post
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Does Homer have any good pitches? I seem to recall his fastball sitting 91-93, mediocre slider, mediocre splitter . I’m all for taking chances on anyone though


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Online  Re: The next Jhoulys Chacin or Wade Miley?
#18

Posted: December 22, 2018, 5:59 PM Post
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clancyphile said:
JohnBriggs12 said:
The focus seems to be more on TOR at this point. They have underappreciated starters for now.

If they end up trading one or two of their current starters, I could see a guy like James Shields being a depth option. His ERA from last year is somewhat misleading. White Sox left him in games a lot longer than Brewers would in the NL. His numbers were pretty good. He is prone to the long ball though.

Pomeranz has a track record of past success and like Miley, he fights a hit walk rate. I think it will take a major league contract but he's a guy to keep an eye on.

Definite no on Perez.


2.57 ERA and 1.215 WHIP points to a TOR-type to me.

TOR types come four ways:
1. You have a home-grown talent who simply dominates via his stuff.
2. You trade for somebody who simply dominates via his stuff.
3. You sign somebody who simply dominates via his stuff as a free agent.
4. You are able to take a pitcher, and maybe make a tweak or two (throw pitch B more often or fix a mindset), and take his performance up to higher levels than before.

Miley was a TOR starter acquired the fourth way.



... Miley was a guy who was almost out of the league and transformed back into a mid-rotation starter. Freddy Peralta is the type of guy that goes from okay to TOR by adding/improving a pitch


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Offline  Re: The next Jhoulys Chacin or Wade Miley?
#19

Posted: December 22, 2018, 6:02 PM Post
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Why is everyone bringing up reclamation projects as comparisons to Chacin? Chacin was good in 2017 with the Pads. He was underappreciated for sure, but his numbers were fine.

A guy who might fit as a comparison is James Shields. 7-16 and a 4.53 ERA doesn't sound very good, but he was a huge innings eater and his WHIP was his best since 2014.


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Online  Re: The next Jhoulys Chacin or Wade Miley?
#20

Posted: December 22, 2018, 6:14 PM Post
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Location: Washburn, WI
Reclamation projects aren’t something we should really be doing anyway as we will be fighting tooth and nail each game with hopes of coming out on top of the division by a game or two. The NL Central is arguably the deepest division and trying to “rediscover” or “transform” guys is pretty risky. We all remember what happened in 2017 with missing the playoffs by one game. We need established players that can help right away. Every game matters.


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