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Dallas Keuchel

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Offline  Dallas Keuchel
#1

Posted: January 14, 2019, 1:05 PM Post
Posts: 454
Have I missed something, or has there just been very little talk about this guy nationally in the F/A market this winter? I'm not necessarily advocating for the Brewers signing him, but would it shock anyone if DS pulls off a surprise signing of Keuchel if his contract demands come down a bit as this month rolls along? We have a dearth of LHP in our rotation candidates right now, so it would make perfect sense for us to go out and try to get a lefty - and he could also be a TOR type arm that we are looking to fill out this staff. I know he's not a true ace, but he'd still be our top SP would really help us lengthen out the rotation. This would really bump up the payroll in 2018, so not sure if that's realistic at this stage. However, we could still trade away Chase Anderson and Eric Thames, which would allow us to save about 12M in whatever we'd have to give Keuchel this year.

Thoughts? Am I completely off base in thinking that this could happen? I'm just really surprised that there hasn't been more chatter about Keuchel after Corbin signed with the Nats earlier this winter.


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Offline  Re: Dallas Keuchel
#2

Posted: January 14, 2019, 1:11 PM Post
Posts: 4188
Location: New Berlin, WI
There's virtually a 100% chance that Keuchel is out of our price range. Corbin signed for over $100 million and Keuchel is a Boras client. It's roughly as useful as discussing whether we can sign Bryce Harper.


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Offline  Re: Dallas Keuchel
#3

Posted: January 14, 2019, 1:14 PM Post
Posts: 454
KeithStone53151 said:
There's virtually a 100% chance that Keuchel is out of our price range. Corbin signed for over $100 million and Keuchel is a Boras client. It's roughly as useful as discussing whether we can sign Bryce Harper.


Ahh - OK. I guess I didn't realize that Keuchel was a Boras client. Still though - if the market isn't materializing like Boras hoped it would for his client this winter, then maybe it opens up the opportunity for other teams (like the Brewers) to get involved. Probably a huge long shot, I know.

I'm just more interested in why there hasn't been more discussion about him yet? Is it just simply that the Phillies are still his likely landing spot and they want to focus on signing Harper first, before moving down their list to Keuchel?


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Offline  Re: Dallas Keuchel
#4

Posted: January 14, 2019, 1:18 PM Post
Posts: 4188
Location: New Berlin, WI
I'm a bit surprised too, I've seen very few rumors on him. I guess you can hope, I just can't imagine Boras not finding a way to work out a significant multi-year deal for him. He's far and away the best SP on the market.


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Offline  Re: Dallas Keuchel
#5

Posted: January 14, 2019, 1:23 PM Post
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Posts: 99
I think Kuechel is scary to teams because his weaknesses are what most teams are looking for. He doesn't strike out many so lots of extra balls in play are going for hits.

Also every other team in the league is trying to become the Astros in terms of player development and maximizing player's strengths with the use of data... so if he was struggling at times with a team like the Astros who took in Charlie Morton, Justin Verlander and Gerrit Cole and made them the best versions of themselves. Do those teams really believe they can do better than the Astros? I think the Brewers are one of the few teams that could really maximize his strengths but they are going to commit to him long term like he wants.


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Offline  Re: Dallas Keuchel
#6

Posted: January 14, 2019, 1:32 PM Post
Posts: 454
amt2138 said:
I think Kuechel is scary to teams because his weaknesses are what most teams are looking for. He doesn't strike out many so lots of extra balls in play are going for hits.

Also every other team in the league is trying to become the Astros in terms of player development and maximizing player's strengths with the use of data... so if he was struggling at times with a team like the Astros who took in Charlie Morton, Justin Verlander and Gerrit Cole and made them the best versions of themselves. Do those teams really believe they can do better than the Astros? I think the Brewers are one of the few teams that could really maximize his strengths but they are going to commit to him long term like he wants.


Yeah, I guess that's why I'm wondering if the market isn't as strong for him as he and his camp had hoped it would be this winter? Then again, the Phillies and their "stupid money" might just be holding off until they throw even more "stupid money" at Harper first before they offer the same to someone like Keuchel? Maybe that's the reason why we haven't heard much on him this winter? Both sides might realize that the Phillies are the only team willing to give him the type of money that he wants, and they are just prioritizing Harper first?


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Offline  Re: Dallas Keuchel
#7

Posted: January 14, 2019, 1:36 PM Post
Posts: 487
I just glanced through the list of Boras clients and 2/3 of them who are free agents are unsigned (there might be a few that I missed). I haven't seen much if any rumors on any of them outside of Harper. Just because there aren't rumors out there doesn't mean conversations aren't happening.

Signed: Zach Britton, matt harvey, yusei kikuchi, jordy mercer, trevor rosenthal, hyun-jin ryu

unsigned: carlos gomez, marwin gonzalez, carlos gonzalez, gio gonzalez, bryce harper, jeremy hellickson, greg holland, matt holliday, dallas keuchel, martin maldonado, mike moustakas, oliver perez, matt wieters

As for Keuchel specifically to the Brewers? I don't see it. Jake Arrieta might be a reasonable comp for Keuchel. Arreita didn't sign till march 11th last year.


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Offline  Re: Dallas Keuchel
#8

Posted: January 14, 2019, 1:44 PM Post
Posts: 4188
Location: New Berlin, WI
I'll also add that I really don't think Keuchel is a very good pitcher. He's a soft tossing contact guy that relies on guys chasing junk. I have no idea how he's had success to this point, but don't think it's sustainable. I know my stance on Keuchel is a minority opinion, if given the choice between Keuchel and Miley at the same contract...I would pick Miley. I think he's the better pitcher...and I really don't like Miley all that much either.

I know this is contrary to my comments above. For whatever reason, Keuchel is viewed as a TOR arm and is still relatively young. The industry generally views him much more highly than I do, hence why I think someone in the industry gives him a big contract. That and the remaining FA SP are really bad. Names that jump out at me are Ervin Santana, Wade Miley, Gio Gonzalez, Jeremy Hellickson, and Marco Estrada as the next best option behind Keuchel. Not really much to see there...


Last edited by KeithStone53151 on January 14, 2019, 2:36 PM, edited 1 time in total.

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Offline  Re: Dallas Keuchel
#9

Posted: January 14, 2019, 2:16 PM Post
Posts: 454
amt2138 said:
I think Kuechel is scary to teams because his weaknesses are what most teams are looking for. He doesn't strike out many so lots of extra balls in play are going for hits.

Also every other team in the league is trying to become the Astros in terms of player development and maximizing player's strengths with the use of data... so if he was struggling at times with a team like the Astros who took in Charlie Morton, Justin Verlander and Gerrit Cole and made them the best versions of themselves. Do those teams really believe they can do better than the Astros? I think the Brewers are one of the few teams that could really maximize his strengths but they are going to commit to him long term like he wants.


Yeah, I guess that's why I'm wondering if the market isn't as strong for him as he and his camp had hoped it would be this winter? Then again, the Phillies and their "stupid money" might just be holding off until they throw even more "stupid money" at Harper first before they offer the same to someone like Keuchel? Maybe that's the reason why we haven't heard much on him this winter? Both sides might realize that the Phillies are the only team willing to give him the type of money that he wants, and they are just prioritizing Harper first?


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Offline  Re: Dallas Keuchel
#10

Posted: January 14, 2019, 3:10 PM Post
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Posts: 1193
I could see the Brewers entering the mix on a short term deal similar to Grandal or maybe 2 years. I don't think it's super realistic but they might value Kuechel different than some teams. They don't seem to care as much about velocity and K% as some.

He was way more attractive to me a couple years ago putting up ridiculous GB% numbers. He still generates enough now, but the reduced ground balls and K% would have me cautious.


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Offline  Re: Dallas Keuchel
#11

Posted: January 14, 2019, 4:13 PM Post
Posts: 454
amt2138 said:
I think Kuechel is scary to teams because his weaknesses are what most teams are looking for. He doesn't strike out many so lots of extra balls in play are going for hits.

Also every other team in the league is trying to become the Astros in terms of player development and maximizing player's strengths with the use of data... so if he was struggling at times with a team like the Astros who took in Charlie Morton, Justin Verlander and Gerrit Cole and made them the best versions of themselves. Do those teams really believe they can do better than the Astros? I think the Brewers are one of the few teams that could really maximize his strengths but they are going to commit to him long term like he wants.


Yeah, I guess that's why I'm wondering if the market isn't as strong for him as he and his camp had hoped it would be this winter? Then again, the Phillies and their "stupid money" might just be holding off until they throw even more "stupid money" at Harper first before they offer the same to someone like Keuchel? Maybe that's the reason why we haven't heard much on him this winter? Both sides might realize that the Phillies are the only team willing to give him the type of money that he wants, and they are just prioritizing Harper first?


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Offline  Re: Dallas Keuchel
#12

Posted: January 14, 2019, 5:24 PM Post
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Keuchel has reportedly asked for five years on a deal. No one is biting at this time.

The general thought is that he's waiting for Machado and Harper to sign - and then hope a team that misses out on those two will turn their money to him.

So, it's just a matter of time.


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Offline  Re: Dallas Keuchel
#13

Posted: January 14, 2019, 6:00 PM Post
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I hope that the Brewers aren't in on him at any cost/duration. He allowed tons of baserunners last year. Hard pass.


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Offline  Re: Dallas Keuchel
#14

Posted: January 14, 2019, 6:25 PM Post
Posts: 1669
RockCoCougars said:
I hope that the Brewers aren't in on him at any cost/duration. He allowed tons of baserunners last year. Hard pass.


Yeah, I guess that's why I'm wondering if the market isn't as strong for him as he and his camp had hoped it would be this winter? Then again, the Phillies and their "stupid money" might just be holding off until they throw even more "stupid money" at Harper first before they offer the same to someone like Keuchel? Maybe that's the reason why we haven't heard much on him this winter? Both sides might realize that the Phillies are the only team willing to give him the type of money that he wants, and they are just prioritizing Harper first?


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Offline  Re: Dallas Keuchel
#15

Posted: January 14, 2019, 7:17 PM Post
Posts: 1455
Location: Madison, WI
I had posted the following in the free agent pitcher thread a few weeks ago and still think it applies. I wouldn't mind seeing the Brewers jump into this but would be surprised as I think the Grandal signing used up most of the remaining 2019 funds. And personally I would have went catcher instead of pitcher. I kind of like the way the pitching staff shapes up.

------------------------------------------------

Of all the top free agents this off-season, I thought Keuchel had the biggest probability of landing a contract that would be less than expected.

For the record, I like the guy and think he's a good fit for Milwaukee because he's sits at or near the top of the ground-ball pitcher list.

But how attractive will he be on the market?

Last year his K/9 rate was 6.7. Pitch Info had his average fastball at 90.2 last season, which is actually a high number for him but certainly doesn't qualify as eye-popping. Bottom line, we are in an era where the strikeout is considered king. When considering that, Keuchel isn't all that attractive as a front-line pitcher.

Over the last three years he has a 3.78 FIP and 106 ERA+. Not a thing wrong with those numbers, but it's certainly not Cy Young type peripherals and most big market GMs might see him as a #2- or #3+++ type starting pitcher. Last year his WHIP jumped to 1.31, the worst number he's had since 2013.

It's been 3 years since he's won the Cy Young and in those three seasons:
average 173 innings pitched, 3.77 ERA, 1.25 WHIP, 3.78 WHIP, 106 ERA+, 2.7 BB/9, 7.3 K/9

Then there is the qualifying offer attached to him, making him a bit more unattractive.

I think 4 years, 72 million could end up being a more likely figure for him. But I wouldn't be shocked if it ended up being a 3 year, 60 million type deal (19 million in 2019, 19 million in 2020, 18 million in 2021...team option in 2022, 20 million with a 4 million buyout).


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Offline  Re: Dallas Keuchel
#16

Posted: January 15, 2019, 7:35 AM Post
Posts: 16035
Kuechel is that big name quarterback that you took in the 2nd round of your fantasy football draft when you could have taken one in the 9th that would have been just as productive.

Unless he ends up taking a Grandal type prove it deal, he doesn't really fit into Stearns' pursuit of appropriate value, IMO.


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Offline  Re: Dallas Keuchel
#17

Posted: January 21, 2019, 3:04 AM Post
Posts: 619
Why Keuchel would be prefect in Milwaukee.

https://www.mlb.com/news/umpires-offer- ... -302937522

I guess it makes sense.....but I just have an aversion to soft tossers. Especially soft tossers getting 20-25 million per year. But....the article does make some reasonable solid points.

Of course I don't really think we need a starter so much as we need another good reliever...and even that can come from a lot of places, including Taylor Williams who in my opinion is just as likely to become the next dominant high leverage reliever as any FA option.

Still, overblown or not, I do worry about DJ's departure and how it'll impact our staff.


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Offline  Re: Dallas Keuchel
#18

Posted: January 21, 2019, 3:54 AM Post
Posts: 769
OnTheBlack said:
Why Keuchel would be prefect in Milwaukee.

https://www.mlb.com/news/umpires-offer- ... -302937522


I suspect you meant to link to something else?

I honestly like Keuchel, just not quite at the prices and years likely to get the deal done; just too much risk. Should definitely be someone, like with Cain and Grandal, to keep a close watch on and swoop in if the market doesn't materialize.


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Offline  Re: Dallas Keuchel
#19

Posted: January 29, 2019, 2:19 PM Post
Posts: 24
Location: Wauwatosa, WI
Haven't seen this posted elsewhere and don't know anything about the amount of trust this guy deserves, but this is at least interesting....
https://twitter.com/PaulCrane7/status/1 ... 2084865032


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Offline  Re: Dallas Keuchel
#20

Posted: January 29, 2019, 2:22 PM Post
Posts: 4188
Location: New Berlin, WI
Smichaelis9 said:
Haven't seen this posted elsewhere and don't know anything about the amount of trust this guy deserves, but this is at least interesting....
https://twitter.com/PaulCrane7/status/1 ... 2084865032


This seems more credible than a lot of the nonsense we've seen. I thought I remember Keuchel having some negative comments towards the Brewers bullpen heavy approach during the playoffs last year. Based on that, I'd be surprised if he picked us...assuming we are even involved. That said, I'm sure he could get more on board with our approach real quick if we offered him the most money.


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