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Dallas Keuchel

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Offline  Re: Dallas Keuchel
Posted: March 06, 2019, 11:07 AM Post
Posts: 4212
Location: New Berlin, WI
Joey Meyer Bombs said:
The Brewers won the division in 2018, and the signings of Grandal and Moustakas only improve what was already a dangerous lineup. Yes they are in a tough division, but I don't see how the Brewers wouldn't already be considered the favorites. Signing a pitcher like Keuchel serves to shore up what is on paper already a strong rotation, plus he serves as a direct replacement for the team's only significant free agent loss, Miley.


Other teams got better too, and there's of course potential regression. The Cubs getting the real Kris Bryant back is going to be massive and can't be understated, and we barely edged out the Cubs. Plus, for all we know, maybe Maddon learned over the offseason how to not destroy a bullpen by mid-August.


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Online  Re: Dallas Keuchel
Posted: March 06, 2019, 11:11 AM Post
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Brew4U said:
Flip a coin between the Cubs, Cards, and Brewers. A lot of things broke right for the crew a season ago and I hope they do again. Adding Dallas might help that happen as it adds depth to that rotation and allows for things like an injury to occur and not kill their chances.


This has been a constant refrain that a lot of things broke right for the Brewers and I am just trying to figure out what all those things were.

Davies got hurt. Nelson missed the whole year. Anderson regressed. Miley missed part of the season. Thames was hurt and then ineffective. Pina missed time. Arcia was terrible for most of the year and Sogard and the rest of the replacements werent good either. Albers got hurt. Knebel missed time. What were all the things that broke right?


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Offline  Re: Dallas Keuchel
Posted: March 06, 2019, 11:16 AM Post
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jjfanec said:
Brew4U said:
Flip a coin between the Cubs, Cards, and Brewers. A lot of things broke right for the crew a season ago and I hope they do again. Adding Dallas might help that happen as it adds depth to that rotation and allows for things like an injury to occur and not kill their chances.


This has been a constant refrain that a lot of things broke right for the Brewers and I am just trying to figure out what all those things were.

Davies got hurt. Nelson missed the whole year. Anderson regressed. Miley missed part of the season. Thames was hurt and then ineffective. Pina missed time. Arcia was terrible for most of the year and Sogard and the rest of the replacements werent good either. Albers got hurt. Knebel missed time. What were all the things that broke right?


-Christian Yelich likely isn't HGH era Barry Bonds yet we got half a season of it out of him.
-Cain was healthy and played well all year on the wrong side of 30. I know he's "different" but there's definitely a chance of him falling off.
-Other than a Knebel hiccup, the "big 3" in the bullpen pitched lights out all year.
-Aguilar regressed late in the year but they got a pretty dominant out of him.
-The Brewers won a lot of close games. That is how they're constructed - to do exactly that...but luck can still go against them there.

I'm neither an optimist nor a pessimist on what they'll do this year (I truly have no idea) but it can go either way. If one fairly pegs the Brewers at 87 or 88 wins last year and this year, there's a pretty equal chance of winning 93 or 82 games.

I do trust that Stearns runs things well enough that the Brewers will generally overachieve but I'm basically here to disagree with the, "well, we did really well last year so adding Keuchel and Grandal will make things better" argument.


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Online  Re: Dallas Keuchel
Posted: March 06, 2019, 11:23 AM Post
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KeithStone53151 said:
Joey Meyer Bombs said:
The Brewers won the division in 2018, and the signings of Grandal and Moustakas only improve what was already a dangerous lineup. Yes they are in a tough division, but I don't see how the Brewers wouldn't already be considered the favorites. Signing a pitcher like Keuchel serves to shore up what is on paper already a strong rotation, plus he serves as a direct replacement for the team's only significant free agent loss, Miley.


Other teams got better too, and there's of course potential regression. The Cubs getting the real Kris Bryant back is going to be massive and can't be understated, and we barely edged out the Cubs. Plus, for all we know, maybe Maddon learned over the offseason how to not destroy a bullpen by mid-August.


Who says the Cubs aren't going to regress? Bryant may be healthier, but still has questions marks. Can Baez repeat his near-MVP performance? Both Lester and Hamels are old, and the wheels could fly off. Darvish is a huge question mark. And it's Maddon's MO to destroy his pen, so I doubt he learned anything.

I don't know how the Brewers can't be considered the favorites, until they prove otherwise.


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Online  Re: Dallas Keuchel
Posted: March 06, 2019, 11:39 AM Post
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-Christian Yelich likely isn't HGH era Barry Bonds yet we got half a season of it out of him. Maybe he is? Most everyone predicted that his numbers would improve as he hit his prime while playing half his games in a park extremely friendly to LH hitters. That proved correct last year.
-Cain was healthy and played well all year on the wrong side of 30. I know he's "different" but there's definitely a chance of him falling off. Well, there's a chance that anyone can fall off, but Cain has been consistently pretty much the same player for 8 years. No one can predict injury, but I think it's safe to say that if he stays healthy, he should remain his consistent self.
-Other than a Knebel hiccup, the "big 3" in the bullpen pitched lights out all year. Jeffress's dominant numbers certainly came out of nowhere, but Knebel has a successful track record, and Hader was pitching in his first full season. No reason to believe that what we saw from him won't continue. Relievers are volatile, obviously, which makes performance tough to predict either way.
-Aguilar regressed late in the year but they got a pretty dominant out of him. Even if he ends up somewhere in between his first half and second half, he's still a valuable power threat.
-The Brewers won a lot of close games. That is how they're constructed - to do exactly that...but luck can still go against them there. Well yeah, of course. They lost a lot of close ones too. That's baseball.

I'm neither an optimist nor a pessimist on what they'll do this year (I truly have no idea) but it can go either way. If one fairly pegs the Brewers at 87 or 88 wins last year and this year, there's a pretty equal chance of winning 93 or 82 games.

I do trust that Stearns runs things well enough that the Brewers will generally overachieve but I'm basically here to disagree with the, "well, we did really well last year so adding Keuchel and Grandal will make things better" argument. Isn't disagreeing that marked improvements to the team's perceived weaknesses won't make the team better pretty much pessimism?


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Offline  Re: Dallas Keuchel
Posted: March 06, 2019, 11:55 AM Post
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Joey Meyer Bombs said:
I do trust that Stearns runs things well enough that the Brewers will generally overachieve but I'm basically here to disagree with the, "well, we did really well last year so adding Keuchel and Grandal will make things better" argument. Isn't disagreeing that marked improvements to the team's perceived weaknesses won't make the team better pretty much pessimism?


Here we are and the Brewers have made most of these additions (outside of Keuchel) and yet Las Vegas is offering a line that is 7 or 8 games lower than last year's win total.

I am an optimist on Stearns so I'd probably bet over on that because the Brewers will generally find ways to overachieve.

However, the theory that, "we won 95 (or 96 if you count the tiebreaker) last year and added guys so we'll do even better" can be debunked by the fact that nobody at this very moment will make the sound investment of selling off all assets and putting $200k on the Brewers because it is so obvious.

The Brewers went 33-19 last year in 1 run games. They're built for that as I said, but make it still "good" at 29-23 and suddenly they're playing a playoff game just to get into the Wild Card.


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Online  Re: Dallas Keuchel
Posted: March 06, 2019, 11:56 AM Post
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Joey Meyer Bombs said:
The Brewers won the division in 2018, and the signings of Grandal and Moustakas only improve what was already a dangerous lineup. Yes they are in a tough division, but I don't see how the Brewers wouldn't already be considered the favorites. Signing a pitcher like Keuchel serves to shore up what is on paper already a strong rotation, plus he serves as a direct replacement for the team's only significant free agent loss, Miley.


+1
Line-up much stronger. An improved Arcia eliminates all 3 of the black holes we had at the bottom of last years line-up. Bullpen strong again,
Starting staff much improved. Defense still good. Manager good.
Front office good. Depth elite. Where is this teams weakness?
Only thing keeping this team from winning 105+games is the strength of the league and there brutal first 60 game schedule.


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Online  Re: Dallas Keuchel
Posted: March 06, 2019, 12:01 PM Post
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I personally agree that a lot went well for the Brewers. Of course they had some injuries. Everyone does. But most of the guys who got hurt were role players, and the team had replacements for many of them already on the roster. Guys like Anderson and Davies might have lost their roles anyway. You could argue they were lucky Davies got hurt. Ditto Thames. Who knows if we would have seen that amazing first half from Aguilar if Thames had stayed healthy. Miley might not have gotten his chance if Suter hadn't gotten hurt.

Shaw, Yelich, Cain, Chacin, Hader, Jeffress all healthy pretty much all year except for one brief DL stay for Cain if I'm not mistaken. Compare that to the Cubs and what they got from their top guys (Bryant, Darvish, Quintana, and Rizzo) and it's hard to argue the Brewers didn't have much better luck. No telling how many of those guys bounce back for the Cubs, but I'll bet my salary they don't combine for roughly just 5 WAR again next year. That was crazy. How many teams can win 95 with terrible years from literally their 5 best players going into the year? They do have some negative regression candidates as well, but they still have a ton of talent. I do think they have a complacency problem though.


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Offline  Re: Dallas Keuchel
Posted: March 06, 2019, 12:07 PM Post
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I can paint a scenario as to how the Brewers vastly underachieve this year:

-Anderson is the guy he seems to be now. Fringe MLB starter.
-Nelson is nothing special even if he returns.
-Woodruff, Burnes, Peralta struggle as "starters" because they are not as effective when they need to go longer.
-We do not have Woodruff and Burnes coming up as bullpen guys later in the year to save the day so the stout bullpen goes 3 or 4 deep.
-I'd even throw Chacin in there as a regression candidate.

Of course probably not all of these things happen. But say a lot of them do, which is definitely possible.

Now we have a team that is a good offense but can't get as many games to the elite part of the bullpen. Given less depth, we also are not able to leverage the matchups as nicely and get blown away in some games where teams get to our lesser bullpen. Still a good enough offense but we only win 85 and miss the Wild Card by 2 games.


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Online  Re: Dallas Keuchel
Posted: March 06, 2019, 12:10 PM Post
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coolhandluke121 said:
I personally agree that a lot went well for the Brewers. Of course they had some injuries. Everyone does. But most of the guys who got hurt were role players, and the team had replacements for many of them already on the roster. Guys like Anderson and Davies might have lost their roles anyway. You could argue they were lucky Davies got hurt. Ditto Thames. Who knows if we would have seen that amazing first half from Aguilar if Thames had stayed healthy. Miley might not have gotten his chance if Suter hadn't gotten hurt.

Shaw, Yelich, Cain, Chacin, Hader, Jeffress all healthy pretty much all year except for one brief DL stay for Cain if I'm not mistaken. Compare that to the Cubs and what they got from their top guys (Bryant, Darvish, Quintana, and Rizzo) and it's hard to argue the Brewers didn't have much better luck. No telling how many of those guys bounce back for the Cubs, but I'll bet my salary they don't combine for roughly just 5 WAR again next year. That was crazy. How many teams can win 95 with terrible years from literally their 5 best players going into the year? They do have some negative regression candidates as well, but they still have a ton of talent. I do think they have a complacency problem though.


Anderson was a legit #2 in 2017, and Davies was a terrific #3. If you would have told me in spring of last year that Davies would miss most of the season, Anderson would lead the league in HRs given up, and Nelson wouldn't throw a pitch all year, I probably would have predicted the team to win 70 games. That's not even taking into account that Santana completely fell off the rails, Arcia couldn't hit his way out of a paper bag, and Thames severely regressed, as did Pina and Shaw for a big part of the year. The Brewers had plenty of problems in 2018, and they managed to overcome them. I expect them to have problems in 2019 as well, and I expect them to overcome those as well.


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Offline  Re: Dallas Keuchel
Posted: March 06, 2019, 12:29 PM Post
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Location: Milwaukee, WI
While many will point out the negatives of the season, they blast through the positives as if those are almost guaranteed to have happen again. Every season is a crapshoot for the most part. Especially with younger, unproven players. LOTS broke the right direction for them last season or they don't win the division and get within a game of the WS. That part isn't even debatable in my eyes. That's not saying it cannot, or will not happen again. It is just being realistic with what occurred a season ago.

My point about Dallas still remains. Continue to build mounds and mounds of depth and take your best shot at it. Many have mentioned it during other threads. The depth of the 40-man roster is one huge factor in our success a season ago.


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Offline  Re: Dallas Keuchel
Posted: March 06, 2019, 12:48 PM Post
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Location: California
I will reiterate what I said earlier in this thread. The thought of signing Keuchel to a big deal scares the heck out of me strictly because of what we saw with Cobb and Lynn last year and their late signings. Now, there are others who have signed late and performed, Kyle Lohse for one. The Astros had great luck signing Roger Clemens in May of 2006 and the Yankees had good luck with signing a retired Andy Pettitte in March 2012. Which one will Keuchel be? If the Brewers choose to go down this path, I would hope they keep Keuchel in extended spring training until May 1 and allow Keuchel the appropriate time to get ready for the season.


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Online  Re: Dallas Keuchel
Posted: March 06, 2019, 1:05 PM Post
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We could play the regression this and that game forever. Any team has the potential to regress at half their roster spots or simply have major injuries.


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Online  Re: Dallas Keuchel
Posted: March 06, 2019, 1:13 PM Post
Posts: 1243
Joey Meyer Bombs said:
-Christian Yelich likely isn't HGH era Barry Bonds yet we got half a season of it out of him. Maybe he is? Most everyone predicted that his numbers would improve as he hit his prime while playing half his games in a park extremely friendly to LH hitters. That proved correct last year.
-Cain was healthy and played well all year on the wrong side of 30. I know he's "different" but there's definitely a chance of him falling off. Well, there's a chance that anyone can fall off, but Cain has been consistently pretty much the same player for 8 years. No one can predict injury, but I think it's safe to say that if he stays healthy, he should remain his consistent self.
-Other than a Knebel hiccup, the "big 3" in the bullpen pitched lights out all year. Jeffress's dominant numbers certainly came out of nowhere, but Knebel has a successful track record, and Hader was pitching in his first full season. No reason to believe that what we saw from him won't continue. Relievers are volatile, obviously, which makes performance tough to predict either way.
-Aguilar regressed late in the year but they got a pretty dominant out of him. Even if he ends up somewhere in between his first half and second half, he's still a valuable power threat.
-The Brewers won a lot of close games. That is how they're constructed - to do exactly that...but luck can still go against them there. Well yeah, of course. They lost a lot of close ones too. That's baseball.

I'm neither an optimist nor a pessimist on what they'll do this year (I truly have no idea) but it can go either way. If one fairly pegs the Brewers at 87 or 88 wins last year and this year, there's a pretty equal chance of winning 93 or 82 games.

I do trust that Stearns runs things well enough that the Brewers will generally overachieve but I'm basically here to disagree with the, "well, we did really well last year so adding Keuchel and Grandal will make things better" argument. Isn't disagreeing that marked improvements to the team's perceived weaknesses won't make the team better pretty much pessimism?


+1
Bottom line for me is Stearns. I trust David Stearns to bring us a World Series this year. 49 years is long enough


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Offline  Re: Dallas Keuchel
Posted: March 06, 2019, 1:39 PM Post
Posts: 3973
Location: Madison, WI
All the scenarios mentioned could happen for all teams, it's literally what makes baseball so crazy. Especially this season with every team in our division good and really every team in the NL descent except one. It could really be a crazy, unpredictable year where anything could happen. Really, luck/injuries are probably going to be the deciding factors.


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Online  Re: Dallas Keuchel
Posted: March 06, 2019, 2:20 PM Post
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bill hAll Star said:
Joey Meyer Bombs said:
I do trust that Stearns runs things well enough that the Brewers will generally overachieve but I'm basically here to disagree with the, "well, we did really well last year so adding Keuchel and Grandal will make things better" argument. Isn't disagreeing that marked improvements to the team's perceived weaknesses won't make the team better pretty much pessimism?


Here we are and the Brewers have made most of these additions (outside of Keuchel) and yet Las Vegas is offering a line that is 7 or 8 games lower than last year's win total.

I am an optimist on Stearns so I'd probably bet over on that because the Brewers will generally find ways to overachieve.

However, the theory that, "we won 95 (or 96 if you count the tiebreaker) last year and added guys so we'll do even better" can be debunked by the fact that nobody at this very moment will make the sound investment of selling off all assets and putting $200k on the Brewers because it is so obvious.

The Brewers went 33-19 last year in 1 run games. They're built for that as I said, but make it still "good" at 29-23 and suddenly they're playing a playoff game just to get into the Wild Card.


Vegas off last 2 yrs by 10+ wins EACH year
Deep powerful line-up and better starting pitching lead to more non 1 run victories, like 24-10 in one run games
I’m not a gambling man, but if I was, at 7-1 odds I’d bet it all on a pennant


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Online  Re: Dallas Keuchel
Posted: March 06, 2019, 3:47 PM Post
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With Jeffress apparent arm injury brewers should look into signing Kimbrell


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Online  Re: Dallas Keuchel
Posted: March 06, 2019, 3:55 PM Post
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Brew crew 92 said:
With Jeffress apparent arm injury brewers should look into signing Kimbrell


Reactionary signings can be a scary proposition. I'm all for stacking talent, though.


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Online  Re: Dallas Keuchel
Posted: March 06, 2019, 4:08 PM Post
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Joey Meyer Bombs said:
Brew crew 92 said:
With Jeffress apparent arm injury brewers should look into signing Kimbrell


Reactionary signings can be a scary proposition. I'm all for stacking talent, though.


Yes they can but so is the Brewers first 60 games plus schedule!
This team needs to be firing on all cylinders opening day


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Offline  Re: Dallas Keuchel
Posted: March 06, 2019, 4:37 PM Post
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Location: Milwaukee, WI
Jeffress is a guy I totally expect to regress. Hopefully others are ready to go.


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