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Dallas Keuchel

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Online  Re: Dallas Keuchel
Posted: April 07, 2019, 1:40 PM Post
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Posts: 97
Location: Neenah
On the Cards board, they're saying he's now looking for a 1 year deal.


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Offline  Re: Dallas Keuchel
Posted: April 07, 2019, 4:46 PM Post
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Location: Madison, WI
Rosenthal is reporting Keuchel will take a one year deal but is looking for more than the qualifying offer amount (17.9 million). Very much doubt the Brewers want to sink 20 million into him considering the budget is probably already pretty stretched.


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Online  Re: Dallas Keuchel
Posted: April 07, 2019, 9:20 PM Post
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I would happily take 5 months of Keuchel (which is what you're going to get) at about 12-13 mil, but not 20 mil. He can say he's been throwing sim games of 95 pitches every 5 days (and I believe that) but that's still not the same as facing live hitting. I'm sure he's stretched out and ready to go, but he won't be ready to pitch until May if he signed tomorrow.


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Offline  Re: Dallas Keuchel
Posted: April 08, 2019, 5:53 AM Post
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Since we'd be giving up another draft pick, I would rather pay a somewhat lower AAV over 2-3 years than a higher one for 1 year. For me the worry about Keuchel hasn't been that he wouldn't produce this year or next, simply that the 5-6 years he was looking for was far too big a risk to take. I still prefer Keuchel over Kimbrel, with Woodruff/Burnes moving to the pen temporarily. I believe in them as starters, but I think that a LHP who can eat a lot of innings with above-average results helps us more than what Kimbrel does. In what he does himself, through the effect lineups might be different when our primarily RH relief corps come into the game, and through the lesser strain on the bullpen, meaning more flexibility and ability to deploy the high-leverage guys accordingly.

I don't really think either one is really on the radar though, unless the price drops substantially.


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Offline  Re: Dallas Keuchel
Posted: April 08, 2019, 6:34 AM Post
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I think recent comments from Brewers' brass about it being unlikely additional pitching help comes from outside the organization reflects well on Nelson's and Jeffress' progress toward rejoining the MLB team. They're going to roll with what they've got - at least for a few months - and then the 1st place on their roster that needs bolstering will likely be the bullpen. Keuchel isn't an option here, even on a 1 year deal. There was money out there for starting pitching in free agency, but he/Boras overplayed their hand and the huge market teams that typically gobble up veteran FA pitching chose other lefty starters (Colvin, Happ) early on.


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Offline  Re: Dallas Keuchel
Posted: April 08, 2019, 6:58 AM Post
Posts: 130
Prediction: Brewers sign Keuchel (or, less likely, Kimbrel) to a 2-year deal on June 6, the day after the draft ends. That's a lot of season in front of us - basically Keuchel would miss the first third, and another month maybe getting in real game shape. So, maybe they don't need him. But at this point I see both guys signing after the draft. Maybe 2/35 for Keuchel? (It would be more like 1.5/35.) I'm just spitballing, like everyone else.


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Offline  Re: Dallas Keuchel
Posted: April 08, 2019, 8:38 AM Post
Posts: 25
Location: Madison, WI
I really want to see Burnes and Woodruff in the rotation this year. I think once they figure things out, they are going to be legit. The offense will allow us to go through some growing pains early in the season.

But part of me wouldn't mind seeing the brewers sign Keuchel (1 yr/18 mil) and then push Woodruff and Burnes back to the bullpen once Nelson is ready.

I really want to see Woodruff and Burnes get a shot at the rotation the entire year. But I wouldn't mind seeing this:

Rotation
Chacin
Keuchel
Nelson
Peralta
Davies

Bullpen
Jeffress
Hader
Woodruff
Burnes
Guerra
Claudio
Albers
Wilson (williams/barnes if they figure it out)
Chase

That bullpen would be legit


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Offline  Re: Dallas Keuchel
Posted: April 08, 2019, 8:55 AM Post
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Keuchel is a nice pitcher who I like but I don’t see him as a $20M player at this stage.


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Offline  Re: Dallas Keuchel
Posted: April 08, 2019, 10:28 AM Post
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Keuchel has been pretty much the same pitcher the last 3 years (not the 2015 version). He's a 2.5 WAR pitcher who can hit 3.0 if he gets the innings, which he wouldn't at this point. So let's say he would put up a 2.5 WAR for the time he actually pitchers this year. That's what they're paying Chacin ~$7M to do. For a FA, the $/WAR has been running closer to $6-7M per WAR the last 2 years than the historical $10M per WAR. So he would be worth $15M-17.5M if he can be the recent Dallas Keuchel in performance. In a few weeks, that's what his prorated salary would be on a "more than the qualifying offer" salary. If his performance is impacted by his delayed start to the season (did any of last years SP that signed late match their expected performance/value based on their contract - I don't recall a single one doing that well). If we are having issues with the starting rotation that need to be addressed, they still have Anderson and Guerra in the Pen whom could be moved back to the rotation and they could bring either/both of Hauser and Brown up to bolster the bullpen like Woodruff and Burnes did last year (or they could bring up Brown for the rotation and move Burnes to the BP). I'm just not sold on the need to spend that money on Keuchel...

JosephC said:
Stearns probably had no interest in getting a C because the Brewers need a C. It makes much more sense to trade for 3B when it's not needed, and then move the other 3B to 2B, then trade for a 2B, but since the 3B is now at 2B, then the new 2B goes to SS


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Offline  Re: Dallas Keuchel
Posted: April 08, 2019, 1:33 PM Post
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As attractive as opening the checkbook is sooner or later you need to manage some risks with developing younger pitchers to try and keep the team going for more than a couple of years. Much to xis's analysis if it was paying for a true top end guy instead of solid mid-rotation material it might be different.


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Offline  Re: Dallas Keuchel
Posted: April 08, 2019, 3:25 PM Post
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I still would not mind a 1 or 2 year deal believe it will help the brewers reach their goal of the WS


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Offline  Re: Dallas Keuchel
Posted: April 08, 2019, 7:14 PM Post
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brewmann04 said:
I still would not mind a 1 or 2 year deal believe it will help the brewers reach their goal of the WS


I agree. We are probably as close as we’ll get to a WS for the foreseeable future. Our window is short... spend the cash and go for it all!


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Offline  Re: Dallas Keuchel
Posted: April 08, 2019, 7:32 PM Post
Posts: 575
mtrebs said:
I agree. We are probably as close as we’ll get to a WS for the foreseeable future. Our window is short... spend the cash and go for it all!


Yeah with all the key guys that are going to walk after this season, the Brewers should be all-in and spare no expense. It's 2019 or bust!

Err wait....


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Offline  Re: Dallas Keuchel
Posted: April 08, 2019, 10:47 PM Post
Posts: 619
mtrebs said:
brewmann04 said:
I still would not mind a 1 or 2 year deal believe it will help the brewers reach their goal of the WS


I agree. We are probably as close as we’ll get to a WS for the foreseeable future. Our window is short... spend the cash and go for it all!



And you base this on what? I'm genuinely curious.

The fact that Yelich is a FA after this year? Or that Shaw is? Or that we'll be losing Knebel, Jeffress, Wahl, Hader, Burnes, Woodruff, Peralta, Nelson next year?


This idea that our window is closing is just fake. I can see the argument that we're close and were a game away from the WS last year, but that has nothing to do with the false narrative that our window is closing.


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Offline  Re: Dallas Keuchel
Posted: April 08, 2019, 10:51 PM Post
Posts: 619
SandyTolan said:
Prediction: Brewers sign Keuchel (or, less likely, Kimbrel) to a 2-year deal on June 6, the day after the draft ends. That's a lot of season in front of us - basically Keuchel would miss the first third, and another month maybe getting in real game shape. So, maybe they don't need him. But at this point I see both guys signing after the draft. Maybe 2/35 for Keuchel? (It would be more like 1.5/35.) I'm just spitballing, like everyone else.




At that point, I think that the chances either signs with the Brewers drops a lot. Before June 6th the Brewers are giving up a 4th round pick and other teams are giving up a 1st round pick.

After June 6th, nobody is giving up anything. This makes it less likely that the Brewers sign either once that deadline passes.


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Offline  Re: Dallas Keuchel
Posted: April 08, 2019, 10:54 PM Post
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OnTheBlack said:
mtrebs said:
brewmann04 said:
I still would not mind a 1 or 2 year deal believe it will help the brewers reach their goal of the WS


I agree. We are probably as close as we’ll get to a WS for the foreseeable future. Our window is short... spend the cash and go for it all!



And you base this on what? I'm genuinely curious.

The fact that Yelich is a FA after this year? Or that Shaw is? Or that we'll be losing Knebel, Jeffress, Wahl, Hader, Burnes, Woodruff, Peralta, Nelson next year?


This idea that our window is closing is just fake. I can see the argument that we're close and were a game away from the WS last year, but that has nothing to do with the false narrative that our window is closing.


The window is likely through 2022, or the end of Yelich's contract. Yeah, you are going to lose some of the older guys during that stretch to regression, like Braun and Cain, but the core of the team is young enough that you are getting their prime years during that window. This team was built incredibly sustainably.


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Offline  Re: Dallas Keuchel
Posted: April 09, 2019, 11:38 AM Post
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Joey Meyer Bombs said:
OnTheBlack said:
mtrebs said:

I agree. We are probably as close as we’ll get to a WS for the foreseeable future. Our window is short... spend the cash and go for it all!



And you base this on what? I'm genuinely curious.

The fact that Yelich is a FA after this year? Or that Shaw is? Or that we'll be losing Knebel, Jeffress, Wahl, Hader, Burnes, Woodruff, Peralta, Nelson next year?


This idea that our window is closing is just fake. I can see the argument that we're close and were a game away from the WS last year, but that has nothing to do with the false narrative that our window is closing.


The window is likely through 2022, or the end of Yelich's contract. Yeah, you are going to lose some of the older guys during that stretch to regression, like Braun and Cain, but the core of the team is young enough that you are getting their prime years during that window. This team was built incredibly sustainably.


Yes, that’s 3 years after this season. That’s a short window in my opinion. If they don’t think this year is “the” year, that’s fine (although I’d argue against signing Grandal then), but whatever year is determined to be “the” year, extra money should be spent to get the last missing piece(s).


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Offline  Re: Dallas Keuchel
Posted: April 09, 2019, 12:20 PM Post
Posts: 1669
I think you can use urgency of being a contender now as justification for over-spending. You just can't use it as justification for trading away prospects who are crucial to your future success, because that's a self-fulfilling prophecy (i.e., making moves like that is the main reason your window won't be open long in the first place).

If Cain declines, that is a pretty huge loss. Chacin could be priced out of their market when his deal is up. Grandal could be gone. A lot of other guys are solid as part of a deep lineup, but none of them have emerged as true stalwarts like Cain and Yelich at the top of the order. Hiura could replace Cain's bat, but Cain's CF defense is a huge part of his value.

I think it's fair to point out that nothing is guaranteed and you should pounce on a chance to contend now, even though they are pretty well situated for a long run of averaging ~90 wins.


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Online  Re: Dallas Keuchel
Posted: April 09, 2019, 12:58 PM Post
Posts: 752
coolhandluke121 said:
I think you can use urgency of being a contender now as justification for over-spending. You just can't use it as justification for trading away prospects who are crucial to your future success, because that's a self-fulfilling prophecy (i.e., making moves like that is the main reason your window won't be open long in the first place).

If Cain declines, that is a pretty huge loss. Chacin could be priced out of their market when his deal is up. Grandal could be gone. A lot of other guys are solid as part of a deep lineup, but none of them have emerged as true stalwarts like Cain and Yelich at the top of the order. Hiura could replace Cain's bat, but Cain's CF defense is a huge part of his value.

I think it's fair to point out that nothing is guaranteed and you should pounce on a chance to contend now, even though they are pretty well situated for a long run of averaging ~90 wins.


If the reports are true, And Kuechel will sign for 1 year 18 then why wouldn’t you do it if your the brewers? Since there are no bad one yr deals in baseball.

Kuechel would help not just the rotation but the pen as well, proverbial two birds with one stone to the hilt. Get creative:

1 yr 12 mil with mutual 25 and buyout of 6.

Arnold said no outside help, so not gonna hold my breath. But this 12 mil or whatever make us the heavy favorites. Save our prospect capitol.


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Offline  Re: Dallas Keuchel
Posted: April 09, 2019, 1:04 PM Post
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Location: Milwaukee, WI
If he truly would accept a 1-year deal, I feel it would be done already. Maybe not with us but with someone.


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