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Dallas Keuchel

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Offline  Re: Dallas Keuchel
Posted: April 25, 2019, 9:34 AM Post
Posts: 1650
Location: Madison, WI
Yes, I think it's safe to say that the Brewers are out on Keuchel. Even though Gonzalez is a pretty minimal investment, I don't think they would have brought him in if they had serious designs on obtaining Keuchel. I think Boras is dug in at a price-tag that is simply out of the Brewer's range, and if Keuchel waits until after the draft and still can't hit his price-tag, then he's either out for the year or drops the price-tag to a point where several teams express interest and then the Brewers probably don't want to be in that situation where they are bidding on him with limited funds when there will be other trade options available.


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Offline  Re: Dallas Keuchel
Posted: May 07, 2019, 12:49 PM Post
Posts: 4269
Interesting article on ESPN today regarding Keuchel - sounds like he feels like he knows what he should be worth and isn't budging on the number in his mind. Apparently he has turned down multiple offers presented to him by Boras because:

"I told him no on numerous deals because it's about principle," Keuchel said. "It's about fair market value. And I wasn't getting that."

"That's not me being greedy. That's just my compensation in the market from what the analytical data is telling me. I didn't come up with this. The front offices came up with this. So now they're trying to tell me I'm less than what the analytical data is saying. How is that possible?"

"My asking price and my due diligence is not just out of left field. It has come to me through my own career path, my own career numbers, and then what my market is valued at this point in time," he told the website. "To this point it hasn't been matched. It's been less than what it should be. And this is out of principle, what's going on right now. I can't speak for other players. It's a principle for me. I'm not asking for the world."

He might not be asking for the world, but he's apparently asking for more than what the market values him at - not sure how sitting out a season really changes that. not that draft pick compensation is truly a big deal when actually signing quality UFA, but at this point teams would be silly not to wait until after the draft so they don't lose a pick by signing Keuchel. There may be analytics that put a generally agreed-upon value to what Keuchel should get in free agency - but if there ain't team willing to pay it in a certain offseason, then that really isn't what the market will bear. Taking a stand for principle is great and all, but it's easy to forget that the year after he won the Cy Young in 2015, Keuchel turned down a $90M contract extension offered by the Astros. He instead opted to go the arbitration route those last 3 seasons with the Stros, earning roughly $30M.


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Offline  Re: Dallas Keuchel
Posted: May 07, 2019, 1:26 PM Post
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Posts: 8273
Dallas never has to work a day in his life again. If he's not absolutely in love with playing baseball and the grind of being a major leaguer, why not wait until you get what you want? I have no problem with these guys sitting out because no one's offering them what they want. His "principled stand" is giving guys who really want to play a shot at the majors, even if just for a handful of games.


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Offline  Re: Dallas Keuchel
Posted: May 07, 2019, 1:31 PM Post
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Posts: 9782
Dallas Keuchel told Tim Brown of Yahoo Sports that he's turned down "numerous deals."

The specifics of those offers are unclear, but Keuchel said his agent, Scott Boras, recommended that he seriously consider some of them. However, the southpaw said he rejected them on "principle" because he wasn't getting what he considers to be fair market value. He's rightfully frustrated at the system, but holding firm on his asking price. One hurdle to a potential deal is that Keuchel is attached to draft pick compensation, but that will no longer be the case once this year's draft takes place on June 3. There's always a chance that some team will jump in before that date, but it would be pretty surprising if he's on the market much longer after that. Keuchel, 31, put up a 3.74 ERA over 34 starts with the Astros last year and would help plenty of teams right now.

SOURCE: Yahoo.com
May 7, 2019, 1:28 PM ET


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Offline  Re: Dallas Keuchel
Posted: May 07, 2019, 2:58 PM Post
Posts: 17400
Sorry, Dallas. Frustrating or not, your market value is whatever the market says it is.


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Offline  Re: Dallas Keuchel
Posted: May 07, 2019, 3:05 PM Post
Posts: 409
adambr2 said:
Sorry, Dallas. Frustrating or not, your market value is whatever the market says it is.


Yeah teams are not going to shell out big long term deal for aging sinker ball starters. He should have taken the 90 million when he had the chance. But he is a lefty and those guys sometimes age well, he just needs to accept that teams are going to want shorter term deals with him now.


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Offline  Re: Dallas Keuchel
Posted: May 07, 2019, 3:53 PM Post
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Posts: 2207
https://sports.yahoo.com/dallas-keuchel ... ml?src=rss

^ Link to the original source article, for anyone interested in reading.

Part of market value, by definition, is what a buyer is willing to pay. I like that he takes ownership for signing vs. non-signing (in contrast to the discussion of the contract extension for the Braves infielders), but the decision to hold out for more than the market is willing to bear has already cost him at least 1/7th of his major league salary for the year...and it will likely be 2/7ths before he signs after the draft.


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Offline  Re: Dallas Keuchel
Posted: May 07, 2019, 5:22 PM Post
Posts: 4269
jerichoholicninja said:
Dallas never has to work a day in his life again. If he's not absolutely in love with playing baseball and the grind of being a major leaguer, why not wait until you get what you want? I have no problem with these guys sitting out because no one's offering them what they want. His "principled stand" is giving guys who really want to play a shot at the majors, even if just for a handful of games.


That's totally fine by me, but if what he wants isn't available and he's unwilling to settle for a lesser offer to continue making millions of dollars I hope he's ok with sitting out, too. The one thing I don't want to see are quotes from him 2-3 years down the road about how he got screwed and lost a year of pitching in his prime because nobody wanted to give a 31 year old a 5 yr, $100M contract (or whatever his perceived value of himself currently is). Part of that article and his quote leave me with the sense that he's going to have sour grapes.


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Offline  Re: Dallas Keuchel
Posted: May 07, 2019, 5:33 PM Post
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Posts: 9703
I think we better off going with Craig if we do anything and i was a big dallas fan


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Offline  Re: Dallas Keuchel
Posted: May 07, 2019, 5:59 PM Post
Posts: 17400
jerichoholicninja said:
Dallas never has to work a day in his life again. If he's not absolutely in love with playing baseball and the grind of being a major leaguer, why not wait until you get what you want? I have no problem with these guys sitting out because no one's offering them what they want. His "principled stand" is giving guys who really want to play a shot at the majors, even if just for a handful of games.


I really don't care that he's doing what he's doing. It's his life. I just don't buy the "the analytics say I should be getting paid this" argument. Sorry, that's not how a free market works.


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Offline  Re: Dallas Keuchel
Posted: May 07, 2019, 7:33 PM Post
Posts: 1650
Location: Madison, WI
I'm guessing that even the most commonly used metrics don't get Keuchel to near the money he was looking for at the beginning of the off-season.

Let's say 1 WAR is worth 9 million this year. Then let's say dollar/WAR increased by an average of 7% each year. That would make 1 WAR = 11.79716 million for the 2023, which would be the final year of a 5 year contract.

Keuchel has a three year average bWAR/fWAR of right around 2.5. fWAR slightly higher, bWAR slightly lower. But that's not a crazy number, I think if one would poll 30 MLB front offices, there might be a few that would have him at slightly above 3 and a few that would have him right around two but 2.5 seems like a real fair number based on his recent history.

But this is the key factor in the metrics. He's 31 years old, and at the point where the rule of thumb is that one can expect a 0.5 WAR decrease from one season to the next. So if he gets a 5 year deal, we start at 2.5 in 2019 but end up at only 0.5 WAR in 2023. It's hugely significant. His value the final year of a five year deal would probably only be estimated at 0.5 x 11.79716 = 5.90 million.

So to fill in all the blanks, this is what the contract should look like based on pretty commonly used metrics.
1 year, 22.5 million (22.5 AAV)
2 years, 41.76 million (20.88 AAV)
3 years, 57.21615 million (19.07205 AAV)
4 years, 68.24154 million (17.06038 AAV)
5 years, 74.14012 million (14.82802 AAV)
And then all these numbers need to be adjusted down because he's missed a good chunk of the 2019 season.

It seems pretty obvious that his math factors in zero decline for the next 6 years if his initial asking price was indeed the rumored 6 years, 160-180 million dollars. He'd be looking at a total of 15, 16, 17 WAR...something like that...over a 6 year time-frame. 15 WAR/6 seasons = 2.5 WAR so no decline from what he's done the last three years.


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Offline  Re: Dallas Keuchel
Posted: May 08, 2019, 9:34 AM Post
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Posts: 434
adambr2 said:
jerichoholicninja said:
Dallas never has to work a day in his life again. If he's not absolutely in love with playing baseball and the grind of being a major leaguer, why not wait until you get what you want? I have no problem with these guys sitting out because no one's offering them what they want. His "principled stand" is giving guys who really want to play a shot at the majors, even if just for a handful of games.


I really don't care that he's doing what he's doing. It's his life. I just don't buy the "the analytics say I should be getting paid this" argument. Sorry, that's not how a free market works.

A free market also entails one party setting a price for selling an asset. If you go into a jewelry store and tell the sales person you're going to buy a $25,000 diamond ring for $19,000 because that's all you're willing to pay I have a feeling you'll be walking out of that store with $19,000 and no diamond ring.

If teams don't want to buy his diamond ring for his price then they don't ever get to wear his diamond ring. If teams are fine with that, great. If the player is fine with that, great.

Reading between the lines it sounds to me like teams are not negotiating with him on price. They're going to him with their price and not responding to his counter offers.


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Offline  Re: Dallas Keuchel
Posted: May 08, 2019, 10:18 AM Post
Posts: 4269
SeaBass said:
adambr2 said:
jerichoholicninja said:
Dallas never has to work a day in his life again. If he's not absolutely in love with playing baseball and the grind of being a major leaguer, why not wait until you get what you want? I have no problem with these guys sitting out because no one's offering them what they want. His "principled stand" is giving guys who really want to play a shot at the majors, even if just for a handful of games.


I really don't care that he's doing what he's doing. It's his life. I just don't buy the "the analytics say I should be getting paid this" argument. Sorry, that's not how a free market works.

A free market also entails one party setting a price for selling an asset. If you go into a jewelry store and tell the sales person you're going to buy a $25,000 diamond ring for $19,000 because that's all you're willing to pay I have a feeling you'll be walking out of that store with $19,000 and no diamond ring.

If teams don't want to buy his diamond ring for his price then they don't ever get to wear his diamond ring. If teams are fine with that, great. If the player is fine with that, great.

Reading between the lines it sounds to me like teams are not negotiating with him on price. They're going to him with their price and not responding to his counter offers.


Keuchel is undoubtedly factoring in what the parameters of that 5 year, $90M extension offer he received a few years ago and turned down from Houston as the AAV baseline for a contract, then adding more years beyond the limits of that initial extension at the same AAV. His reasoning for balking at that extension came down to "not wanting to leave money on the table" by passing up his chance at UFA. By turning down that extension, he needs a longterm contract in order to come anywhere close to bettering what his career earnings would have been had he signed that $90M extension. I believe that extension would have covered the 2019 and 2020 seasons - so he's looking for a contract that will come close to paying out the $60M he left on the table by refusing the extension that he hasn't earned yet, plus be long enough of a deal that offsets any theoretical FA contract he could've scored a couple offseasons from now had he accepted Houston's offer. I just don't see that working out for him where he'll be happy. Gio Gonzalez is pitching in 2019 for $2M + incentives - Keuchel is better than him and a couple years younger, but no way is he a 9-figure contract level starter over 5+ years at this stage in his career.


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Offline  Re: Dallas Keuchel
Posted: May 08, 2019, 10:38 AM Post
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Posts: 434
Fear The Chorizo said:
Keuchel is undoubtedly factoring in what the parameters of that 5 year, $90M extension offer he received a few years ago and turned down from Houston as the AAV baseline for a contract, then adding more years beyond the limits of that initial extension at the same AAV. His reasoning for balking at that extension came down to "not wanting to leave money on the table" by passing up his chance at UFA. By turning down that extension, he needs a longterm contract in order to come anywhere close to bettering what his career earnings would have been had he signed that $90M extension. I believe that extension would have covered the 2019 and 2020 seasons - so he's looking for a contract that will come close to paying out the $60M he left on the table by refusing the extension that he hasn't earned yet, plus be long enough of a deal that offsets any theoretical FA contract he could've scored a couple offseasons from now had he accepted Houston's offer. I just don't see that working out for him where he'll be happy. Gio Gonzalez is pitching in 2019 for $2M + incentives - Keuchel is better than him and a couple years younger, but no way is he a 9-figure contract level starter over 5+ years at this stage in his career.

That's not what he's saying though. He's saying he's basing it off of the "now". I mean, if Houston offered that then but isn't now I don't see how he can hold other teams to what Houston offered him a few years ago. That makes no sense (Edit: meaning I agree with most posters that's not going to work out for him if that is indeed what he's doing).

I think we've heard from enough players that have been going through this process that, in some cases, the teams aren't negotiating price. They're making take it or leave it offers and hoping guys panic and sign. They're playing bully-ball and it's worked for the most part.

I think this most recent statement or report coming from Keuchel is him saying, I'm not panicking, you're going to have to negotiate with me if you want me to sign with you.

I do not think it means that Keuchel has his price and won't budge from it, he's just not engaging with bully-ball tactics. That's my feeling, I could be wrong.


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Offline  Re: Dallas Keuchel
Posted: May 09, 2019, 2:41 AM Post
Posts: 1232
adambr2 said:
jerichoholicninja said:
Dallas never has to work a day in his life again. If he's not absolutely in love with playing baseball and the grind of being a major leaguer, why not wait until you get what you want? I have no problem with these guys sitting out because no one's offering them what they want. His "principled stand" is giving guys who really want to play a shot at the majors, even if just for a handful of games.


I really don't care that he's doing what he's doing. It's his life. I just don't buy the "the analytics say I should be getting paid this" argument. Sorry, that's not how a free market works.



The thing is, Baseball isn't a free market. Everyone keeps using this analogy and it's not really applicable. It'd be applicable if these players weren't controlled by their teams for 6-10 years. The MLBPA has to know that deals for the 30+ year old stars are changing, but what's equally problematic with a likely work stoppage coming up in a few years are the deals that Albies and Acuna signed. And both of them were guys who were likely to hit free agency in their prime years.
The most reasonable resolution is the one that's the most harmful to a team like the Brewers. To cut back on the years of team control and or to change the compensation for players during those years of team control. I don't know what that's going to look like when the two sides are done fighting, but it does seem possible that this could lead to a work stoppage that could be as disastrous to baseball as the '94 strike.


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Offline  Re: Dallas Keuchel
Posted: May 09, 2019, 7:13 AM Post
Posts: 4269
SeaBass said:
Fear The Chorizo said:
Keuchel is undoubtedly factoring in what the parameters of that 5 year, $90M extension offer he received a few years ago and turned down from Houston as the AAV baseline for a contract, then adding more years beyond the limits of that initial extension at the same AAV. His reasoning for balking at that extension came down to "not wanting to leave money on the table" by passing up his chance at UFA. By turning down that extension, he needs a longterm contract in order to come anywhere close to bettering what his career earnings would have been had he signed that $90M extension. I believe that extension would have covered the 2019 and 2020 seasons - so he's looking for a contract that will come close to paying out the $60M he left on the table by refusing the extension that he hasn't earned yet, plus be long enough of a deal that offsets any theoretical FA contract he could've scored a couple offseasons from now had he accepted Houston's offer. I just don't see that working out for him where he'll be happy. Gio Gonzalez is pitching in 2019 for $2M + incentives - Keuchel is better than him and a couple years younger, but no way is he a 9-figure contract level starter over 5+ years at this stage in his career.

That's not what he's saying though. He's saying he's basing it off of the "now". I mean, if Houston offered that then but isn't now I don't see how he can hold other teams to what Houston offered him a few years ago. That makes no sense (Edit: meaning I agree with most posters that's not going to work out for him if that is indeed what he's doing).

I think we've heard from enough players that have been going through this process that, in some cases, the teams aren't negotiating price. They're making take it or leave it offers and hoping guys panic and sign. They're playing bully-ball and it's worked for the most part.

I think this most recent statement or report coming from Keuchel is him saying, I'm not panicking, you're going to have to negotiate with me if you want me to sign with you.

I do not think it means that Keuchel has his price and won't budge from it, he's just not engaging with bully-ball tactics. That's my feeling, I could be wrong.



I think it has alot more to do with trying to use other FA pitching contracts signed around the time he busted out and was one of the best lefty starters in the game back in 2014/2015, without factoring in recent changes to how front offices weigh player regression as they move past their prime into their early-mid 30's. The offseason before he won the Cy Young in 2015, Jon Lester signed a 6 yr, $155M deal that also had a few option years tacked on the back end of it with the Cubs as a 31 year old. Scherzer signed a 7 yr, $210 M deal with the Nats that same offseason as a 30 yr old. James Shields went 4 yrs, $75M as a 33 yr old. The offseason after Keuchel won the Cy Young, there were plenty of crazy FA pitching contracts handed out:

David Price went for 7 yr $217M as a 30 yr old
Greinke went 6 yr $206M as a 32 yr old
Cueto went 6 yr $130M as a 30 yr old
Zimmerman went 5yr $110M as a 30 yr old
Samardzija went 5 yr $90M at 31
Kazmir 3 yr $48M at 32
Leake went 5 yr $80M at 28

So these contracts in a vacuum, particularly at the time Keuchel put up better stats than most of them, would seem to make his decision to turn down a 5 yr, $90M extension make alot of sense considering it would have bought out his Age 31 and 32 seasons in 2019-2020.

However, the 2016-2017 offseason was a total bust for FA starting pitching contracts - 39 yr old Rich Hill and 32 yr old Jeremy Hellickson were basically the headliners. The following offseason, 32 yr old Darvish wend 6 yrs $126M to headline starter contracts - basically an $80M haircut compared to what Greinke got at that same age 2 years earlier.

The trend started with an awful crop of FA pitchers after 2016, followed by a bunch of the 2017 FA pitchers falling on their faces after begrudgingly signing deals they all thought weren't rich enough. This last offseason Corbin went 6 yrs, $140M at 29, which based on AAV and assuming the two pitchers' projections are equal over the next 4 seasons would project Keuchel to get 4 yrs, ~$94M considering he's 2 years older. Problem for Keuchel is the projections indicate Corbin is a much better pitcher than Keuchel is at this stage.

Long story short, I think Keuchel is basing too much of his valuation off what he was told he was worth 3-4 offseasons ago during his prime without factoring in both his own regression and how the baseball free agent market has devalued contracts to older pitchers.


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Online  Re: Dallas Keuchel
Posted: May 09, 2019, 8:01 AM Post
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Posts: 12132
Location: Milwaukee, WI
I'm glad we signed Gio and didn't sink a bunch of money into Dallas. Small market move that could pay off this season and beyond because we don't have money sunk into a pitcher that might not be all that great.


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Offline  Re: Dallas Keuchel
Posted: May 09, 2019, 8:41 AM Post
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Posts: 2097
Fear The Chorizo said:
Interesting article on ESPN today regarding Keuchel - sounds like he feels like he knows what he should be worth and isn't budging on the number in his mind. Apparently he has turned down multiple offers presented to him by Boras because:

"My asking price and my due diligence is not just out of left field. It has come to me through my own career path, my own career numbers, and then what my market is valued at this point in time," he told the website. "To this point it hasn't been matched. It's been less than what it should be. And this is out of principle, what's going on right now. I can't speak for other players. It's a principle for me. I'm not asking for the world."

Well, welcome to the real world Dallas, where almost every job has become a "what have you done for me today" judgement on your value not your history. Workers are another commodity to be managed by companies and not a part of the company and now it's becoming part of Baseball. Too bad for the ballplayers, while they have made millions and will continue to make millions, a vast majority of working American's just move from job to job trying to pay bills and feed their families. Tough luck for Dallas...

JosephC said:
Stearns probably had no interest in getting a C because the Brewers need a C. It makes much more sense to trade for 3B when it's not needed, and then move the other 3B to 2B, then trade for a 2B, but since the 3B is now at 2B, then the new 2B goes to SS


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Offline  Re: Dallas Keuchel
Posted: May 09, 2019, 5:52 PM Post
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Posts: 3303
xisxisxis said:
Fear The Chorizo said:
Interesting article on ESPN today regarding Keuchel - sounds like he feels like he knows what he should be worth and isn't budging on the number in his mind. Apparently he has turned down multiple offers presented to him by Boras because:

"My asking price and my due diligence is not just out of left field. It has come to me through my own career path, my own career numbers, and then what my market is valued at this point in time," he told the website. "To this point it hasn't been matched. It's been less than what it should be. And this is out of principle, what's going on right now. I can't speak for other players. It's a principle for me. I'm not asking for the world."

Well, welcome to the real world Dallas, where almost every job has become a "what have you done for me today" judgement on your value not your history. Workers are another commodity to be managed by companies and not a part of the company and now it's becoming part of Baseball. Too bad for the ballplayers, while they have made millions and will continue to make millions, a vast majority of working American's just move from job to job trying to pay bills and feed their families. Tough luck for Dallas...


[rolling eyes]


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Offline  Re: Dallas Keuchel
Posted: May 09, 2019, 7:35 PM Post
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Posts: 1973
SRB said:
xisxisxis said:
Fear The Chorizo said:
Interesting article on ESPN today regarding Keuchel - sounds like he feels like he knows what he should be worth and isn't budging on the number in his mind. Apparently he has turned down multiple offers presented to him by Boras because:

"My asking price and my due diligence is not just out of left field. It has come to me through my own career path, my own career numbers, and then what my market is valued at this point in time," he told the website. "To this point it hasn't been matched. It's been less than what it should be. And this is out of principle, what's going on right now. I can't speak for other players. It's a principle for me. I'm not asking for the world."

Well, welcome to the real world Dallas, where almost every job has become a "what have you done for me today" judgement on your value not your history. Workers are another commodity to be managed by companies and not a part of the company and now it's becoming part of Baseball. Too bad for the ballplayers, while they have made millions and will continue to make millions, a vast majority of working American's just move from job to job trying to pay bills and feed their families. Tough luck for Dallas...


[rolling eyes]


That's not a bad thing! That means we all get to go to the local dollar store and buy unbelievably cheap milk, eggs, bread, toilet paper and smart phones. If we so choose, we can even buy cheap-ish water (although my local dollar store is often out of water....strange world)!


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