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Zack Greinke?

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Offline  Re: Zack Greinke?
#81

Posted: January 27, 2019, 6:12 PM Post
Posts: 207
brewmann04 said:
the guy on twitter must be laughing.


No kidding.

This is how far this twitter "joke" went - there was a radio broadcast today from On Deck, and Steve True was sitting in for a segment when David Stearns was being interviewed. True asked him about the "rumor" that the Brewers trying to trade for Grienke. You could tell that there was a smirk on Stearns' face over the radio, just from the tone of his voice. His response was simply that he sees some of the stuff written about what the Brewers are doing and about 40% of it has, I think he put it, "some degree" of truth. Not even that 40% of it is true, just that it had some degree of truth...

You've got to love David Stearns. He's not going to give anything away, with regard to personnel moves, with a direct answer - not even to quash the fake rumours. [laughing]


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Offline  Re: Zack Greinke?
#82

Posted: January 27, 2019, 7:31 PM Post
Posts: 7712
clancyphile said:
DHonks said:
clancyphile said:

I did divvy that up, based on the details of Greinke's contract at https://www.spotrac.com/mlb/arizona-dia ... einke-407/ - but I double-checked.

The $62.5 million is deferred over the six years. I'm going to assume $10.5 million deferred from 2019, and $11 million for 2020 and 2021. I am assuming that the first three years had $10 million deferred each.

2019 - the AAV is 34.5 million. The bonus, I assume, has already been paid, so we're really looking at $31.5 million. The deferred salary puts the Crew as owing $21 million. Since I am sending Anderson and Albers to Arizona, that's $9 million off the books in 2019 - so the net increase is actually at $12 million.

2020 - The AAV is $35 million. Bonus (paid by D-Backs) takes it down to $32 million. $11 million deferred takes it down further to $21 million. Anderson's team option (which I assume would be picked up - especially if he rebounded from 2018) is $8.5 million. Net increase in payroll is $12.5 million.

2021 - The AAV is $35 million. Bonus (paid by D-Backs) takes it down to $32 million. $11 million deferred takes it down further to $21 million. Anderson's option in 2021 is for $9.5 million. That puts the net increase down to $11.5 million.

2022-2026, the Brewers owe $32.5 million in deferred salary over those five years - or $6.5 million a year.



all of the details for annual breakdowns are found on Cots.


What is Cots? I was using Sportrac, is that less reliable?


I've always known it as the most reliable source for salary info. It's now part of Baseball Prospectus.
https://legacy.baseballprospectus.com/c ... mondbacks/


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Offline  Re: Zack Greinke?
#83

Posted: January 27, 2019, 8:04 PM Post
Posts: 4211
DHonks said:
clancyphile said:
all of the details for annual breakdowns are found on Cots.


What is Cots? I was using Sportrac, is that less reliable?


I've always known it as the most reliable source for salary info. It's now part of Baseball Prospectus.
https://legacy.baseballprospectus.com/c ... mondbacks/[/quote]

OK, thanks.

I took a look, and it looks like my guesses were on the money in terms of what was deferred.

Based on what I'm seeing at Cots and Sportrac, I don't think Greinke's deal would be a killer for Milwaukee. He'd be closer to the 2017 version of Anderson than the 2018 version, plus the mentoring for Burnes/Woodruff/Peralta...

I think it's worth doing, even for the extra $12 million a year. Especially if Burnes, Peralta, and Woodruff go from solid MLB rotation assets to borderline #1/#2 starters.


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Offline  Re: Zack Greinke?
#84

Posted: January 27, 2019, 8:41 PM Post
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I've never viewed Greinke as the "mentor" type... Not sure his personality fits.


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Online  Re: Zack Greinke?
#85

Posted: January 27, 2019, 8:51 PM Post
Posts: 2930
turborickey said:
I've never viewed Greinke as the "mentor" type... Not sure his personality fits.

No one has ever viewed Greinke as the mentor type. No idea where that notion is coming from. If the expectation is that you get Anderson circa 2017 production, then why not just keep Anderson? Isn't it just as likely that he bounces back as Greinke is to reverse a downward trend? No idea what Milwaukee would gain from that trade except all of the risk.

The bullpen is not our weakness, that starting pitching is. Till it proves otherwise, on paper, it’s a pretty bad group.


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Offline  Re: Zack Greinke?
#86

Posted: January 31, 2019, 8:35 PM Post
Posts: 3100
Based on what I'm seeing at Cots and Sportrac, I don't think Greinke's deal would be a killer for Milwaukee. He'd be closer to the 2017 version of Anderson than the 2018 version, plus the mentoring for Burnes/Woodruff/Peralta...

I think it's worth doing, even for the extra $12 million a year. Especially if Burnes, Peralta, and Woodruff go from solid MLB rotation assets to borderline #1/#2 starters.


It's still not just 12 million per year. It's also almost 33 million in years the Brewers ostensibly hope to be competitive also. And I'm not sure how Greinke is going to make Burnes,Peralta and Woodruff aces.

I really like Greinke, and if AZ wants to eat 60 million or so, and the Brewers want to give away remaining flexibility and they believe that he can reverse some of last years trends, I'd be on board. But you're making some huge assumptions to justify this and then ignoring others, mainly the money by presenting it at just 12 million year year in added revenue. The 33 million may come in handy when the time comes to try and extend a guy like Hirura or Burnes or someone who's not in our system yet.



Again, lets just keep in mind, aside from the obvious payroll deterrent, Grinke was hit harder last year than just about any year of his career, had better luck and his BABIP was way down(IIRC it was like 30 points below his average while his hard hit pct was around 40 pct, much higher than his normal years) and his velocity was down below 90. And he doesn't exactly have the delicate touch to nurture young pitchers if they start struggling. He's more likely to tell them "you really suck right now" than anything else. Not saying I don't like him, just saying....there are a whole lot more reasons to NOT sign him than there are to sign him.


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Offline  Re: Zack Greinke?
#87

Posted: February 01, 2019, 9:13 AM Post
Posts: 3100
82brewcrew82 said:
turborickey said:
I've never viewed Greinke as the "mentor" type... Not sure his personality fits.

No one has ever viewed Greinke as the mentor type. No idea where that notion is coming from. If the expectation is that you get Anderson circa 2017 production, then why not just keep Anderson? Isn't it just as likely that he bounces back as Greinke is to reverse a downward trend? No idea what Milwaukee would gain from that trade except all of the risk.



No, definitely not in the traditional sense. I could see him helping a guy like Jimmy Nelson who's mentally tough and doesn't question that he belongs in the big leagues. I could see him asking some questions and Greinke answering. But he's not going to take out the young foursome of our young potential starting rotation to dinner(I'm throwing Brown in there) and really get to know them, and then share some of his stories along the way.

I don't think he'd be a detriment...mainly because he was here, he wasn't. But it'd take a pitcher with a thick skin and a lot of confidence to work with him. So basically the anti-Manny Parra.


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Offline  Re: Zack Greinke?
#88

Posted: February 08, 2019, 7:48 AM Post
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Well, still no Greinke, so I don't think there was anything to this "rumor" to begin with.

The Paul Molitor Statue at Miller Park: http://www.facebook.com/paulmolitorstatue


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Offline  Re: Zack Greinke?
#89

Posted: February 08, 2019, 8:19 AM Post
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Yes someone again having a big laugh getting us to talk for 5 pages


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Offline  Re: Zack Greinke?
#90

Posted: February 08, 2019, 9:48 PM Post
Posts: 7712
Invader3K said:
Well, still no Greinke, so I don't think there was anything to this "rumor" to begin with.


Yes and no. One thing I've learned from hearing/reading comments from Stearns is that many of his deals are planned over many weeks/months.


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Offline  Re: Zack Greinke?
#91

Posted: February 10, 2019, 9:23 AM Post
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I'm sure the Brewers have inquired on Greinke, as they have inquired on most options that may be available to them. I believe they do their due diligence on virtually everyone, and I think that sometimes that process gets 'leaked' some way and spun into something more concrete than it actually is.


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Offline  Re: Zack Greinke?
#92

Posted: February 13, 2019, 11:53 PM Post
Posts: 619
brewmann04 said:
Yes someone again having a big laugh getting us to talk for 5 pages



All this stuff is rhetorical for the most part. I don't see it as a waste as I enjoy the varying perspectives.


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